PROPHET - Prediction Markets
@prophet_notes
Followers
1K
Following
9K
Media
318
Statuses
5K
#1 Paid Prediction Market Newsletter | Geopolitics | Economy | If you follow the herd you are sure to get slaughtered
Joined December 2023
Trump will meet Putin in Alaska. But will the familiar cold make Putin more agreeable?. I analyzed:.- the situation on the ground.- the state of Ukraine.- the state of the collective west.- the state of Russia.- the real ceasefire odds. And of course showed my positioning on
1
1
7
What can I say, there is signal and there is noise. And it was very noisy the last couple of weeks.
TRUMP STEPS BACK . THE GUARDIAN: PRESIDENT TRUMP PULLS OUT OF ACTING AS PEACE BROKER — TELLS PUTIN & ZELENSKY TO ARRANGE BILATERAL TALKS THEMSELVES. TRUMP TAKES “WAIT-AND-SEE” STANCE ON WHETHER SUCH A MEETING CAN EVEN HAPPEN.
0
0
1
Great post!. I trade in public and publish my theses with exactly this in mind. Prediction markets are on good path to make a permanent room for themselves in the news space, and by extension for us - the new generation of pundits / analysts with skin in the game.
Will prediction markets replace media?. No. But I hope they can integrate with media. What prediction markets can and can't do 👇. I think they can. ▶️ Create a new class of pundits. This is what I am currently betting on by trading in public. Imo a pundit's value will always.
0
0
6
What a bad take. Ukraine wouldn't agree, because it's essentially giving away territory that is now partly under Ukrainian control. Also would mean recognizing Russian Crimea de jure. European countries wouldn't agree to it, because it would mean they lost and they are not ready.
Here’s how I would solve the Ukraine war:. There’s no way Zelensky is going to agree to let Russia keep all the captured territory. And Putin isn’t going to release it. But…Russia and Ukraine could agree to hold referendums in the occupied territories in 2 years and let the.
1
0
6
The fall of this effort is going to be epic.
JUST IN - Trump agrees with European leaders to collaborate on Article 5-like security guarantees for Ukraine, but provided no details — Axios.
0
0
1
Ceasefire bullposting is over, now it's time to slowly backtrack everything.
TRUMP RULES OUT SENDING U.S. TROOPS TO UKRAINE.
1
0
5
Is it only my tl or is X now full of prediction markets bullposting?.
1
0
10
While you wait for today's White House special make sure to get up to speed with the world. Look below 👇
1
0
3
Amid all the rumors before tomorrow's meeting between Trump and Zelensky, I have to direct you to my Substack. Bullposting ceasefire by Trump, Europe and Zelensky is expected. They must be seen as morally superior (especially Europe). But you can't escape reality. I have to.
Trump will meet Putin in Alaska. But will the familiar cold make Putin more agreeable?. I analyzed:.- the situation on the ground.- the state of Ukraine.- the state of the collective west.- the state of Russia.- the real ceasefire odds. And of course showed my positioning on
0
0
3
No post on Bolivia as I didn't find any reliable edge there. .
0
1
4
RT @DAlperovitch: All this talk of security guarantees is more hot air that won’t produce anything meaningful.This war will either end with….
0
20
0
"This appears to be the most promising peace talk meeting yet.". Apparently we live in different realities.
Initial takeaways continued:. 5. Zelensky says Ukraine is ready for “constructive cooperation”.6. Zelensky notes “positive signals” from US on security guarantees.7. No comment from Putin or Kremlin so far. This appears to be the most promising peace talk meeting yet.
1
0
8
The meeting between Trump and Putin was a total disaster. We are all used to Trump picking up easy wins, but he couldn't even do that. After 2.5h meeting we all expected some kind of announcement. Anything. Instead we got:.- no luncheon.- Putin giving history lesson on stage.-.
Trump will meet Putin in Alaska. But will the familiar cold make Putin more agreeable?. I analyzed:.- the situation on the ground.- the state of Ukraine.- the state of the collective west.- the state of Russia.- the real ceasefire odds. And of course showed my positioning on
0
1
7
Oof.
White House officials announced that the planned lunch between the U.S. and Russian delegations has been canceled, and President Trump will return to Washington right away.
1
0
8
Substxck keeps on growing nicely!. PROPHET NOTES becomes a regular occurrence on the Rising list now. Thank you all for your support!
0
1
12
In other words, Iran wants to stall for as long as possible to rebuild its defensive capabilities, because Iran knows that another attack from Israel will come.
🔴In other words, Iran is defeated and wants to more or less surrender for the regime to survive. The US and Israel are victors.
1
0
4
Coalition of the willing, what a curious name….
0
0
1
Well I'm still writing the article on Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, 3,000 words deep and counting. But the research and the time was well worth it. Be on the lookout tomorrow.
1
0
8