Ivan ─ Prediction Markets & Current Events
@IvanCryptoSlav
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Speculator and polyglot writing about predictions, current events, and crypto. Long-form writing on Substack. Shitposts and stream of consciousness on X.
Joined January 2022
Don't believe The Donald's lies, Putin and Zelensky will not meet, at least not any time soon. He only has a Nobel Peace Prize to lose, but I bet $50K on @Polymarket against this. The 10 reasons why are in the link in the replies 👇
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Not to take a victory lap since I didn't expect Donnie to fold this easily this fast but. I told you so (in pinned tweet and Sbstk). The fundamentals remain unchanged and the US has never had a plan to address them. At least he got some cool b/w shots and Epstein's gone.
TRUMP STEPS BACK . THE GUARDIAN: PRESIDENT TRUMP PULLS OUT OF ACTING AS PEACE BROKER — TELLS PUTIN & ZELENSKY TO ARRANGE BILATERAL TALKS THEMSELVES. TRUMP TAKES “WAIT-AND-SEE” STANCE ON WHETHER SUCH A MEETING CAN EVEN HAPPEN.
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Will prediction markets replace media?. No. But I hope they can integrate with media. What prediction markets can and can't do 👇. I think they can. ▶️ Create a new class of pundits. This is what I am currently betting on by trading in public. Imo a pundit's value will always.
prediction markets will replace the media in the future. media’s job is basically to interpret reality and tell you what might happen. prediction markets do that in real time and remove editorial bias. the moment enough people trust prediction markets odds over headlines, the.
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And here's Putin explaining to you why and under what circumstances he is ready to meet Zelensky. From June this year. You might need AI to help you out with the sound 😃.
yandex.ru
Смотрите онлайн Путин заявил, что готов встретиться с Зеленским 2 мин 47 с. Видео от 19 июня 2025 в ...
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Zelensky White House visit post-mortem. TLDR: still scubadiving heavily with my bets but overall happy with how it went. > Atmosphere between Zelensky and Trump was much more cordial, which I expected. Of course, Z would not make the same mistake twice and I thought too much was
What to expect from Zelensky's visit to the White House. I'm not entirely sure, except for two things: no quick ceasefire and a lot of mentions (yes, this time for real) if Trump takes questions from the press before his 1-on-1 with Zelensky. There are a lot of rumors flying.
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What to expect from Zelensky's visit to the White House. I'm not entirely sure, except for two things: no quick ceasefire and a lot of mentions (yes, this time for real) if Trump takes questions from the press before his 1-on-1 with Zelensky. There are a lot of rumors flying.
Is the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, Russia finally going to bring a ceasefire?. If you're stalking me on @Polymarket, you know my opinion. 4,000 words with unique insight not mentioned anywhere else about the motives of Trump, Putin, and Zelensky. Link in the replies 👇
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Alaska summit post-mortem. Read on the summit: 5/5.Trading performance: 3/5. Just jotting down some loose thoughts for now, maybe another Sbstk soon depending on further developments. > Clear win on points for VVP. He had the time of his life in Alaska oblast and he got progress
Is the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, Russia finally going to bring a ceasefire?. If you're stalking me on @Polymarket, you know my opinion. 4,000 words with unique insight not mentioned anywhere else about the motives of Trump, Putin, and Zelensky. Link in the replies 👇
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Well that didn't go so well😂.
Nothing ever happens but you can, in fact, just say things. Hoping Trump will say a lot of things today. I have my @Polymarket roster of mentions for the greatest press conference of the year.
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Nothing ever happens but you can, in fact, just say things. Hoping Trump will say a lot of things today. I have my @Polymarket roster of mentions for the greatest press conference of the year.
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Here’s what I cover:. 👉 The positions, incentives, and limitations of Trump, Putin, and Zelensky (and Ukraine). Sorry Europe, not you this time. 👉 My expectations of and predictions for the summit. 👉 My bets.
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Is the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, Russia finally going to bring a ceasefire?. If you're stalking me on @Polymarket, you know my opinion. 4,000 words with unique insight not mentioned anywhere else about the motives of Trump, Putin, and Zelensky. Link in the replies 👇
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Interrupting regular prediction market programming for the rare crypto trade (trying to hold myself accountable here). Longed $BTC @ 118.6. Target about 10k higher. Inval losing the bounce on the 4h off today's push (~117.4). Thesis: breaking out of diagonal resistance + BTC.d
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Events around the war in Ukraine have been unfolding much fast than I anticipated, so my new deep dive is delayed to Monday/Tuesday. I also want to deploy more money according to my theses. Stay tuned because this will be a big one. Any predictions on what happens next Friday?
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I (deservedly) lost this bet but was at least able to cut some losses by bailing around 20c. Waiting for Trump to comment and/or implement actual sanctions beyond tariffs and will write a post mortem till EOW. There's still no rhyme or reason to Trump's Russia approach.
Well, this leads me to believe the sanctions and/or tariffs on Russian oil will never materialize. 50 days in Trump world is like years in the real world. He's only one Putin call away from being informed of this. Not that the threat was particularly credible to begin with.
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July trading recap — Moooom, I'm famous now. The good:. ✅Great month, both in terms of performance and execution (on @Polymarket at least). Best month since Q1, all my reads were hitting and execution was good too. ✅ Had a fantastic Wimbledon tournament, maybe my best ever in
June trading recap — That escalated quickly . The good:. ✅Another profitable month, that is probably worth a mention in itself. I still don't know what I'm doing but by and large, it seems to be working. ✅Like many others, I got caught by Bibi's June surprise early in the
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No fan of the recent developments here. Obv wish I had derisked some after the position was up big initially. A sanctions/tariffs trial balloon seems quite possible now, but Trump may also opt to just allow deep strikes as a first 'safer' escalation. Sbstk on this of interest?🤔.
Well, this leads me to believe the sanctions and/or tariffs on Russian oil will never materialize. 50 days in Trump world is like years in the real world. He's only one Putin call away from being informed of this. Not that the threat was particularly credible to begin with.
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Here's what I cover:. 👉 How I got burned in September 2024 by betting on a small cut.👉 How I was so back in May by submitting to the Fed’s narrative. 👉 Why Jerome Powell will not cut .👉 My bet for tomorrow and what I expect for the rest of 2025.
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Another day, another opportunity to long Jerome Powell on @Polymarket !. No, the Fed won’t cave to Trump and cut rates tomorrow. But the era of Fed rate bonds is coming to an end. Link in the replies covers why I am giga long on a hold for one last time and what I think happens
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