Philip Pilkington
@philippilk
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Macroeconomist/investment professional. Author: The Collapse of Global Liberalism. Host of the Multipolarity podcast, @MultipolarPod.
Joined August 2021
1/ Central bank independence is probably coming to an end. In the short-term, this is due to radical and somewhat political moves made by the Trump administration. But in the long-term it is a failure of the ideas that were used to justify independence in the first place. 🧵
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This model uses WESTERN estimates from the Iranian attack on Israel in April 2024. These are likely wildly off. You can probably accelerate those losses by three times.
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According to this study the USAF would have, oh, two weeks of operation before being wiped out in East Asia in a conflict scenario. After a single week over 80% of its capacities would be destroyed. 🇺🇸🇨🇳🛫.
YAWN 🥱. Read the article before spamming dumb comments, please. Access Denied? The Sino-American Contest for Military Primacy in Asia. International Security (2025) 50 (1): 118–151. MAIN CONCLUSION: . the current U.S. approach for operating airpower in East Asia during a
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RT @GrayConnolly: The Northern Sea Route linking Russia and China continues to grow at a steady pace . the Eurasian future unfolding now….
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The latest hard-hitting piece from @PimlicoJournal exposes a ChatGPT ring in Westminster. Looking forward to next month’s offering where Tory researchers undertake a raid into Labour researcher offices to steal paperclips and Post-Its. Top quality ‘policy’ publication. 🤣
“An enormous troll moment.”. —Philip Pilkington, geopolitical analyst.
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Robot wolves at the Chinese military parade. They have automatic weapons apparently and “hunt in packs”. It really is like something out of a movie. A Chinese friend laughed when I said the Ukraine war was deploying cutting edge tech. I shouldn’t have doubted him. 🇨🇳
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Just forget about Western military tech lol! 🇨🇳.
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It’s amazing what you can figure out if you don’t suffer from terminal “late Western brain”. Add to this…. >China knows “global power projection” only causes chaos and doesn’t want to go down the same route as the collapsing empire.
@philippilk >Chinas a regional power not a global one. >Looks at Taiwan. >Its in the region. Well I'm glad we cleared that up.
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Because the Chinese don’t suffer from “late Western brain” and they don’t take pointless risks.
@philippilk If this equipment is so advanced, why are they occupying taiwan by death-of-1000-cuts instead of using force so Xi can witness it while he stays in power?.
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No serious person in DC has taken seriously the idea that China would ever invade Taiwan for months. CSIS analysts finally picked up the 2006 edition of the PLA’s ‘Science of Campaigns’ and realised that the Chinese would blockade the island. Plenty of reports out there now.
Nonsense. The main reason China cannot take Taiwan is bc they have a rudimentary ASW capability, leaving US nuclear-powered attack subs invulnerable as attack platforms to strike landing ships trying to get across the Strait. The failure of police or counterinsurgency operations.
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Translation: the US still leads in outdated military technology designed to hassle smaller countries. But this technology can't even stop the Houthis blockading the Red Sea. In Europe Romania leads in horse and cart technology. It's quaint. 🇨🇳🇺🇸.
Let’s not exaggerate. @SamRoggeveen’s point, quite correct, is that China is now at the military technological frontier. That does not mean it has “beaten” the US in military technology. China is ahead in hypersonic missiles and has closed the gap in combat aircraft and air.
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Often overlooked: the Chinese drones used in Ukraine that have, $-for-$, outperformed Western drones are commercial drones that are repurposed. The actual Chinese military drones are far more advanced. Simple logic will tell you this - lacking in Western military circles. 🇨🇳🇺🇸.
@philippilk China is now 10:1 in steel production, 200:1 in navy ships. And when Chinese off the shelf commercial drones outperformed USA $$$ dedicated military drones in Ukraine, it was obvious there was not longer a Western tech advantage either.
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Foreign Policy magazine is just throwing in the towel. The Chinese have the Americans well and truly beaten on military technology. Welcome to the realityzone, my friends! 🇨🇳🇺🇸
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Vintage military equipment enjoyers often say the ABSOLUTELY IMPENETRABLE Aegis BMD air defence systems will save the creaking old aircraft carriers from missiles. Sure bro. But I’ve only seen one viable plan for the unmanned mini submarine swarm… 🐬😏
MORE - Autonomous submarines, attack planes and helicopters roll past Tiananmen Square.
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If you’re in any non-Chud political message group right now you know that all eyes are on China. This really feels like the big multipolar moment. 🇨🇳.
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Anyone notice the Western press stopped covering Nork troops in the Ukraine war the moment Russia called the media bluff and actually invited them? Enormous troll moment that few in the West are aware of. The virtual becomes the real. 🇰🇵🇷🇺.
Putin to Kim: North Korea Aided in Liberation of Kursk Region.
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Mao suit: detected. 🇨🇳.
Xi Jinping organized the largest Victory parade in China for the 80th anniversary and celebrated in the company of Russia, North Korea and Pakistan.
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It definitely foreshadowed @vonderleyen’s career in international diplomacy. It’s a pity she took Europe with her into the bin. 🇪🇺🗑️.
2008: Ursula von der Leyen climbs into a paper recycling bin before an audience of millions on evening television, for reasons that are too trivial and too ret@rded to explain.
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This does sort of look like a massive real estate crash… 🇺🇸.
BREAKING: The delinquency rate on Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) for offices surged 62 basis points in August, to a record 11.7%. This is now a full percentage point above the post-2008 peak of 10.7%. Since December 2022, the CMBS delinquency rate has risen by
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RT @BluthCapital: Poignant from Mike Green:.US *cannot* inflate away the debt bc the liabilities are indexed to inflation. Social Securit….
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That’s the end of Western Europe. If you live there and you value stability and prosperity leave now. Otherwise enjoy the collapse and good luck! 🇪🇺🇩🇪.
Russia's pivot from Europe to Asia is now permanent with the signing of the Power of Siberia-2, which runs from the Russian Arctic to China. The gas that could have fuelled European economies for decades has instead been redirected to China.
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