
Stephen Pettigrew
@pettigrew_stats
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Data scientist and political scientist at @Penn. Senior Elections Analyst on the @NBCNews Decision Desk. PhD
Joined February 2013
Check out my new @NBCNews article (with Dylan Radley and Makenzie Kerneckel) about turnout in Philly, Detroit, and Milwaukee. Turnout lagged considerably in those cities compared to the rest of their states, contributing to Trump winning PA, MI, and WI
nbcnews.com
More people voted in 2024 than in 2020 in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but the growth came from pro-Trump areas.
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Philadelphia precinct results and shift from 2020. Beware ecological inference, but some patterns to dig into here….
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Very proud of the work our @PennPORES research fellows did for the @NBCNews Decision Desk on Tues collecting the vote results in almost every precinct in 11 states. Check out my article (with Makenzie Kerneckel and Dylan Radley) about what happened in PA
nbcnews.com
Trump's improvement compared to 2020 was driven by broad gains in most places around the state. In Philadelphia, heavily Latino neighborhoods saw the biggest shifts.
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Excited to spend another election night with the @NBCNews Decision Desk. Looking forward to working with all my awesome colleagues including @wpmarble, @marctrussler, @stark_talk, @Redistrict, @MrArenge, @mieuque, @mfmargolis, dozens of @PennPORES undergrads, and many others
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Curious about how (and why) the preliminary vote results in swing states might skew toward one party or the other on Election Night? Check out my new article on the topic
nbcnews.com
A big lead at some point on election night doesn’t always mean a candidate will win. That’s because different places and types of votes get counted at different speeds.
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The Philadelphia City Council has officially UNANIMOUSLY passed the Get Out the Bike Lane bill banning stopping, standing, and parking in bike lanes citywide and increasing penalties. Thank you to @CouncilmemberKJ @CouncilmemberJG and the other sponsors of this bill!!
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Everyone knows your emotional well being should not be tied to individual polls, it should be tied to the in-season performance of 18-22 year olds playing a sport affiliated with your favorite institution of higher learning.
people acting gleeful over this poll are deluding themselves. do not tie your emotional well being to individual polls
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If you're curious about how votes get counted and how we ensure that the data are accurate on Election Night, check out this explainer I wrote for @NBCNews
nbcnews.com
A network of reporters and voting experts gathers results from thousands of jurisdictions, checking all of them for anomalies before viewers and readers see the data.
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I'm sick of how often drivers kill pedestrians and bikers in Philly. I called to tell the Mayor to build safer bike and pedestrian infrastructure
Just called. I told them I was disappointed in the mayor's statement and that she should promise real concrete action to make Philly safer for people biking and walking. Their response was a terse: "OK, we'll make a note of it." Keep calling: 215-686-2181
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Tracking what the prez campaigns are doing with paid digital ads can be hard. There are a ton of platforms that release info in vastly different ways. Here's a quick help sheet that outlines where the campaigns have advertised on digital so far. (Doesn't include any SuperPACs)
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This happened in a crosswalk that connects the main part of campus to a bunch dorms, and has probably some of the highest foot traffic in the city. If we can't design our roads to force drivers to slow down here, then what are we even doing?
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Somebody was killed this morning on @Penn's campus, and the university didn't send out a Penn Alert or any other notification because it was *only* vehicular violence that caused the death. https://t.co/HjJRredNsc
6abc.com
A pedestrian is dead after being struck by a vehicle in Philadelphia's University City section.
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From helping with exit polling to vote count data collection, students in @PennPORES bring their skills to the @NBC Decision Desk on election nights. @PennSAS Read More: https://t.co/goPx32RJGN
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We hope work like her's and our's can bring empirical evidence to the policy discussions happening in states and cities that are considering adopting ranked choice voting.
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There's a lot of unanswered questions about RCV and lots of smart people working on answers. Just last week, @DCInbox published an article showing that lower income New Yorkers may have been more likely to have their RCV ballots rejected due to overvoting.
journals.sagepub.com
Examining the impacts of ranked choice voting (RCV) on voter efficacy is important as more areas consider adoption. The greater number of choices provided by lo...
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The difference is that ballot exhaustion may result from a voter's sincere lack of preference for unranked candidates, whereas mistakes like overvotes or overrankings suggest the voter did not fully understand the proper way to mark their ballot.
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It's also worth pointing out that ballot rejections are only part of the story of vote attempts that are not included in final tabulation. Rejection rates are dwarfed by the percent of ballots uncounted in the final round tabulation due to ballot exhaustion (which is often >10%).
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But in non-RCV races that rate tends to be less than 0.1%. And in a place like SF or NYC, that 10x difference can mean thousands of additional people attempting to cast a vote for a race, but having their vote be rejected due to mis-markings.
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So what's the take-away? At the end of the day, most RCV races tend to have fewer than 1% of ballots be rejected due to ballot mis-markings. Maybe that level is an acceptable downside, if RCV has other benefits.
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