“Why Do Borrowers Default on Mortgages?” w/@pascaljnoel Three theories for why: 1) negative equity alone 6% 2) negative life events alone 70% 3) both (“double trigger”) 24% https://t.co/2D86YBFFXG 🧵

Is there any analysis of how ice raids are changing labor supply and prices in industries with a lot of immigrants like construction?

🚨Public service announcement:🚨 Only 2 weeks until the official launch event for "The means of prediction" on Nov 3, incl discussion with Noam Yuchtman, music, and bar. Get your free tickets here: https://t.co/dU3BoRHYSy & your copy of the book here: https://t.co/v5wsobcyDh

Local museum shows that American trains used to go fast 😢

"What app can I use every day that will make me a better contractor?"

Really important paper. We totally miss most earnings volatility for the 60% of Americans who are hourly workers, because we measured it at the yearly, not the monthly level. High-frequency data reveals that the situation faced by low-income workers is worse than we believed. 1/

I saw @JoeVavra present this paper in the summer & I haven't stopped telling people about it since. The fact that 60% of US workers are paid hourly was already a surprise to me. It also got me excited about the relevance of this to my work on rationing, see ⬇️.

🚨 New insights from #JPMorganChaseInstitute: "Earnings Instability – The Hidden Volatility of American Workers’ Paychecks." Steady jobs don’t always mean steady income. Here’s what we found 👇

In this 6-min video, I show how to use iDEP to interpret bulk RNA-seq data. Start with QC plots and exploratory analyses before identifying differentially regulated genes and pathways. Here, we picked up on high mitochondrial rRNA counts, one male sample mixed in with seven

Most US workers see fluctuating monthly earnings. Firms are one main cause. Workers don't like these volatile jobs as it makes their spending more volatile and they quit more, from @p_ganong, @pascaljnoel, Christina Patterson, @joevavra, and @AlexWeinberg17

Coauthors: @pascaljnoel Christina Patterson, @JoeVavra, @AlexWeinberg_. And the original idea for the paper goes back to a collaboration with @FionaGreigDC. Looking forward to comments and questions!

Bottom line: Workers face substantial monthly earnings risk that has been missed when analyzing annual data. This risk is borne primarily by relatively low income, hourly workers, and is largely driven by fluctuations in firms’ labor demand, and they don't like it.

For 2) it does. Using bank account data, we show that income volatility causes spending volatility. Spending volatility increases when workers move to higher-volatility firms. In addition, workers are more likely to quit high-volatility jobs.

For 1) firms are the key to explaining changes in worker hours. Consequently, a meaningful share of this instability is outside workers’ control. Volatility in the firm’s demand for labor—measured as the change in total firm hours—drives volatility in worker pay.

These findings raise two important questions: 1) Why do hours move from month to month? And 2) does this instability matter for worker welfare?

For salaried workers, we don’t see this pattern: they have meaningful pay changes in only a few months of the year. Again, showing four actual pay histories. The increases are usually bonuses or commissions.

This assumption is close to right for salaried workers. But it’s way wrong for hourly workers. In fact, the norm for hourly workers is to get paid a different amount each paycheck because of their fluctuating hours. See actual pay histories.

Non-technical summary: https://t.co/99d8DVKzVE Paper: https://t.co/ZnsrvQbfxJ We use data from a payroll processor and from @jpmorgan Institute. Most economic models think about workers as if they receive a salary and assume that compensation is constant within the year.

In a new paper, my coauthors and I show that most US workers experience substantial month-to-month fluctuations in pay, even within ongoing employment relationships, leading to fluctuating household consumption and an increased propensity to quit.

BFIs podcast the pie is now posting videos so you can see me awkwardly downing a Coke Zero (didn’t realize they were filming when I wasn’t talking… 🤦)

We don’t just talk about impact, we prove it. Just one week after receiving Catalyst funding, PALM Economy already has boots on the ground in Nigeria, onboarding real producers and getting ready to capture traceable data, immediate value for Cardano, $ADA holders, and $PALM.

Definitely the most eloquent thing I could have said...

Q from an undergrad: given US uni woes when do you expect there to be more US Econ PhD slots? Explain your reasoning in a reply.

Excited to participate in the @iza_bonn / @OECD online conference on unemployment insurance. Live now! Watch here https://t.co/e6BN4oW9Sn