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Tom Holden Profile
Tom Holden

@t_holden

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Researcher, macroeconomist, Bundesbank. All views are my own personal opinions and do not reflect the opinion of the Bundesbank, the Eurosystem, or its staff.

Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Joined June 2009
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@t_holden
Tom Holden
1 year
I'm not going to be cool about this. This is a huge deal for me. I still can't believe it's real. I've somehow rolled this Trojan horse of a paper past the gates of the Top 5. Under its nerdy exterior hides answers to some of the most fundamental question of monetary econ. 1/.
@ecmaEditors
Econometrica
1 year
With a standard monetary rule & heterogeneous households, beliefs of a coming recession can become self-fulfilling. Monetary rules responding 1 for 1 to the real rate observed in TIPS markets prevent this & give near perfect control of inflation. @t_holden
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@t_holden
Tom Holden
6 days
I'm planning a small US seminar tour in mid-November. My work covers my travel expenses, so I'm easy on your seminar budget. Invite me if you're interested in hearing about rationing in sticky price models!.
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@t_holden
Tom Holden
9 days
After all this, the actual answer was pretty reasonable:
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@t_holden
Tom Holden
9 days
The descent into insanity was complete:
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@t_holden
Tom Holden
9 days
Until @grok gave up with sentences altogether:
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@t_holden
Tom Holden
9 days
Longer and longer:
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@t_holden
Tom Holden
9 days
Gradually the number of "up" and "out" in each "sentence" increased:
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@t_holden
Tom Holden
9 days
Again, this went on for a long time, until it got to "kicking out data" after which it became obsessed with the word "out", and shortly after, also with the word "up".
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@t_holden
Tom Holden
9 days
This went on for a long time, until it decided to tell me about Chart.js:
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@t_holden
Tom Holden
9 days
But a bit later on it started printing the biggest number it could imagine:
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@t_holden
Tom Holden
9 days
Grok's chain of thought went completely crazy following a math question. Read on to watch @grok's entertaining descent into insanity. It started off reasonably enough:
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@t_holden
Tom Holden
20 days
RT @robin_j_brooks: @joehas The moral superiority of the EU over the US is painful to watch. Russia is able to keep fighting in Ukraine bec….
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@t_holden
Tom Holden
21 days
This is less easy than you might think. Like most people in Germany, I rent, which means I cannot make the holes in the wall necessary to install proper AC. And, since our windows open inwards (rather than sliding up and down as in the US), nor can I install window AC units.
@sam_d_1995
sam
22 days
an upper-middle class western European can easily buy an A/C. an upper-middle class American (outside of NYC/DC) cannot easily buy a functioning mass transit network or walkable cities.
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@t_holden
Tom Holden
25 days
(And of course this kills the Euler equation, and with it much of the effects of household heterogeneity, but this is a good thing for simplicity, transparency, robustness, etc.).
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@t_holden
Tom Holden
25 days
(Of course this is the discretionary optimum in the basic NK model, but it's reasonable more generally. Implementation of such targeting conditions with interest rates rules is a solved problem.).
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@t_holden
Tom Holden
25 days
Most papers using a basic Taylor rule would be better off just specifying a CB targeting condition of the form πₜ = - α yₜ. Low α (≥0) captures CB inflation aversion much more directly than high φ in a Taylor rule, and is far more transparent.
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@t_holden
Tom Holden
30 days
For a country like Germany that already has joint taxation of couples, getting public support for the following seems possible:. 1) Kids are treated like adults in the tax system, in particular they have the full tax free allowance. 2) Any group of people residing at the same.
@Noahpinion
Noah Smith 🐇
30 days
TELL US WHAT THE EFFECTIVE FERTILITY POLICY WOULD BE. SPEAK IT. SPEAK THE WORDS, SAY IT ALOUD.
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@t_holden
Tom Holden
1 month
The thread below is extremely clear on the reasons for AI growth scepticism, but the original @EpochAIResearch paper is better than you might have expected. AI is meaningfully different to previous general purpose technologies, as it has the potential to increase research output.
@lugaricano
Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦
1 month
1/@EpochAIResearch doubles down on preiction AI will drive 20%+ annual GDP growth. Economists remain skeptical. This is the defining debate of today: AI builders see infinite prosperity ahead. Economists see the same limits that constrained every technological revolution.🧵 1/13
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@t_holden
Tom Holden
1 month
Typo. Oops.
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