A neat feature is you can simulate how long it will take if a country grows at rates seen in the 🇩🇪, 🇯🇵, 🇨🇳 economic miracles. Even at a spectacular 🇨🇳 Chinese rate of growth (7%/year), the 🇨🇩 D.R. Congo will take 64 years to reach current incomes in the 🇺🇸 USA. 2/N

Comparisons for richer countries work as well! At its present growth rate, 🇨🇳 China will achieve current 🇺🇸 US income levels in 35 years–sooner than 🇯🇵 Japan, which will take 80 years. 3/N

Of course, constant growth rates is a VERY strong assumption---use these estimates wisely. But I hope this brings into focus the harsh logic of compounding growth, and the staggering levels of 🌐 inequality. Comments + suggestions welcome! N/N.

Tagging some people who may be interested -- @tedmiguel @delong @Noahpinion @dkedrosky @pseudoerasmus @JonSteinsson @rodrikdani

@oliverwkim Fascinating, thank you for sharing! I have been doing some research about trends in occupational growth which I've been visualizing in Google Sheets but would love to share in a more public way like you have here-- what tools did you use to build this chart?

@Ethan_Heppner It's mostly D3.js! Used this tutorial:

@oliverwkim Fantastic tool, really appreciate if you walk us through the development process of this tool or at least some glimpse about!

@AfrasiyabShah6 I used D3.js! This is a good tutorial:

@oliverwkim How are "average historical growth rates" defined?

@RichardYannow Growth rate from start of the PWT data (usually 1960 or so) to end (2019)

@oliverwkim Double check your assertion on Senegal versus France. Your chart says 343 when those countries are plugged in BUT you also reference a 2572 year number below. Or am i missing something?? Plus where did you source the Ghana per capita no? Seems kinda high.

@ndmanu The 343 number comes when you use recent 10 year growth rates, not historical (post-1960) rates. All the data is from the Penn World Tables. If it seems high it’s likely the result of the PPP adjustment.

@oliverwkim @oliverwkim This tool is awesome and easy to use. It'll be used widely, including in high schools. So people who are bad with numbers will use it. They'll forget the conditional and think the catch up years is a fact instead of a projection. Consider adding a tide pod warning.

@josefyau1 Good point. I will add a disclaimer

@oliverwkim It would be amazing to see a tool like this for decarbonization data

@oliverwkim Wondering if you used R to make this tool? Thanks

@oliverwkim @AdrianSaville

@oliverwkim Adding a South Korean historical miracle rate would also have been good in the mix you created.

@oliverwkim Fun!

@oliverwkim @pseudoerasmus Very nice tool!