Dani Rodrik
@rodrikdani
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Economist at Harvard Kennedy School and @drodrik .bsky.social on Bluesky
Cambridge, MA
Joined March 2011
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Interesting point by Michael Lewis: Academics write terribly because they write for an audience out to destroy them. They are terrified to make a mistake.
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Foxconn promised 13,000 jobs in Wisconsin and then decided (!) to automate the factory, which will require only 3,000 “knowledge workers.” Great cautionary tale about technology, jobs, and how Wisconsin got bamboozled.
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Gaza gelmemek icin cok ugrastim, ama neredeyse heyecanlanacagim artik.
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TL’nin serbest dususunu durdurmak icin yalniz uc secenek var. 1. TCMB rezervlerini tuketmek pahasina dolar satacak. 2. Faizlerde ciddi bir artis yapilacak. 3. Sermaye kontrollari. Zehirlerden zehir begen.
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There’s been much discussion in recent days about Economics’ race problem. Some of what has come out is quite disturbing. I have not said much, but I have listened and thought. Here are a few reflections I want to add. +
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Honestly, if it weren't for stuff like this I would have been off Twitter long time ago.
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My new paper with
@JosephEStiglitz
argues that developing economies are at a turning point and need a new growth strategy based on green investment, labor-absorbing services, and new "industrial" policies focused on these two areas
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Just got a haircut from my wife. Now it’s my turn to cut her hair, but she’s disappeared.
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The certainty with which The Economist approaches most economic questions about which we have the foggiest notions never ceases to amaze me.
Just in case you were wondering where
@TheEconomist
stands on this whole end of neoliberalism/new Washington consensus thing ...
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The scale of achievement of these two is astounding. Could any “Nobel” in economics, properly called that or not, come anywhere near?
BREAKING NEWS
The 2023
#NobelPrize
in Physiology or Medicine has been awarded to Katalin Karikó and Drew Weissman for their discoveries concerning nucleoside base modifications that enabled the development of effective mRNA vaccines against COVID-19.
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Very excited to announce our new initiative: Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP) - a network of academic economists producing creative policy ideas
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BioNTech received $445 million from the German government.
Pfizer CEO explains why they rejected subsidies. A must read for all interventionists
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Merkantilistlerden Trump’a dogrudan bir cizgi cizip, 250 senelik iktisat kuramini bir kenara birakirsak eger:
Ekonomi bir futbol maçı ise:
İhracat attığın Gol,
İthalat da yediğin Goldür.
Attığından fazla yersen Dış ticaret açığı verirsin.
Attığın gol (ihracatın) istediği kadar rekor olsun, Yediğin gol (ithalatın) daha fazlaysa, maçı kaybedersin...
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Watching the Turkish Lira’s collapse today, the thought that keeps popping in my head is “live by financial markets, die by financial markets.” +
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There’s a saying in Turkish: God makes man happy by making him lose his donkey and then letting him find it. That’s how I will feel about the last four years if Biden wins. Man with donkey > man w/out donkey.
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Astonishing fact: In 2002, 33 IR scholars paid for an ad in NYTimes against Iraq invasion. . None has since been asked to serve in government or advise a presidential campaign. None has spoken at annual meetings of the
@CFR_org
. From
@stephenWalt
new book.
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This is unfortunately quite true. From any rational, decision-theoretic standpoint, the Economics profession under-invests in imperfectly identified analyses of big/important/relevant questions relative to well-identified but comparatively uninteresting questions.
Next time I hear the advice that people should pick big questions with imperfect identification over less important but better identified ones, I am going to scream. This is not the game this profession is playing.
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Academia lost a great economist. Those of us who were lucky to know him also lost a gentle spirit and warm soul—someone who didn’t let brilliance get in the way of his unassuming personality, self-deprecating humor. I will miss Alberto Alesina terribly.
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Mainstream economics used to be have little good to say on industrial policy. But this is largely not true any more. See my new paper with
@juhreka13
and
@straightedge
on this (and many other issues): "The New Economics of Industrial Policy" --
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Istanbul this evening...
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If you want to understand where the world economy has been and where it may be headed, you need to read this book.
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I understand the pressure that Ashoka is under (as are all research institutions currently in India). But the crafting of this statement is poor, seemingly casting aspersion on the paper (not yet “peer-reviewed”) instead of supporting researchers’ academic freedom.
Ashoka University is dismayed by the speculation and debate around a recent paper by one of its faculty members (Sabyasachi Das, Assistant Professor of Economics) and the university's position on its contents.
As a matter of record, Ashoka University is focused on excellence in…
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Turkey is going through its first currency crisis of the floating era. All the previous ones were when the rate was fixed or managed, and hence unfolded much more quickly. This one is stretched over time, and the government prefers to ignore it.
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Hard not to admire Imamoglu, the CHP candidate who won Istanbul and whose election was just annulled. He is tireless and gives people hope that Erdogan can be defeated at the polls. Unfortunately, he faces a man who plays by entirely different rules.
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Are you teaching an online/hybrid economics course in the Fall? Why not open it up to students from developing countries and benefit both them and your students? We have some resources to help you...
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Reading
@DrDaronAcemoglu
and Simon Johnson’s latest while waiting for election results. A long book, but easy read with full of historical details. Two important messages: +
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Bu e-mail’e cevap olarak, Turkone’nin zamaninda Ergenekon/Balyoz tutuklulari icin soylediklerini hatirlatanlara diyorum ki: evet ama simdi herkesin haklarini savunmak zamani degil mi? Bu kisir donguyu onceden adaletsizlige ugramis insanlar kirmayacaksa, kim kiracak?
Tutuklu yazar Mümtazer Türköne’nin kızı Sıla Türköne e-mail gönderdi. Babası Mümtazer beyin iki kalp damarının tıkalı olduğunu, ameliyat olması gerektiğini ve sağlık koşullarının ölümcül nitelik arz ettiğini ifade ediyor.
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Talking of books, greatly enjoying these two new books on how to do qualitative research right — a topic much neglected by economists. First this little gem:
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A useful database of 166 countries' economic policy response to COVID-19
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What a big win it would be for pluralist democracy if the opposition were to unseat Erdogan in the elections. Not just for Turkey but the entire world.
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I’m starting to think the idea that Trump captured the Republican Party has it exactly backward. It’s the party that’s captured Trump, making him pursue all its favorite policies (taxes, judges, deregulation), just with a modicum of space for Trumpian idiosyncrasy on trade.
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A new paper in AER demonstrating empirically what many suspected for a long time: globalization has led to reduced tax burden on the top 1% while increasing it on the median
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I’m sure it will be a great disappointment for the advocates to learn that industrial policy is no magic bullet. Can you imagine the IMF summarizing another study as “central bank independence is no magic bullet…”.? That’s how your ideology shows.
Industrial policy is on the rise, but new research shows that it is not a magic bullet for economic growth. Instead, fiscal policies that support innovation and technology diffusion more broadly—plus basic research—are the answer. Read our blog:
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I’m all for medium term strategy. But making a speech like Albayrak’s in the midst of a currency free fall without a single concrete measure shows utter lack of comprehension about what’s happening and what’s required.
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First, Economics is clubby. While good research does get recognized, the ability to produce it depends on networks. If you don’t start with the networks in place–a PhD from a top dept, a well-recognized advisor--you start with a significant handicap difficult to overcome.
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No, developing country successes cannot be credited to neoliberalism. This table is old but the main message would apply even more to China.
@Noahpinion
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My wish for the new year: the retirement of the label “emerging markets.” It invites us to think of developing countries (and their problems) from the perspective of global finance. A perfect encapsulation of hyperglobalization’s distorted priorities.
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A very disturbing thread. I have the greatest respect for Andreu Mas-Colell, who devoted his life to public service, interrupting a distinguished academic career.
Normally I would not be posting personal developments on this website, but in this case I have a pressing concern. My dad, Spanish economist Andreu Mas-Colell, is dealing with an incredibly difficult and unjust situation. 1/
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Hats off to Bogazici University faculty, students, and alumni who kept up with their protest of a rector wholly unsuitable to this distinguished university. Erdogan removed him today.
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Congratulations to Card, Angrist, and Imbens on the well-deserved Nobel! Can't help but think of Alan Krueger, who surely would have been included alongside Card.
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I had two rejections from top economics journals in recent days. Disappointed at personal level as always. But with the caveat that I don’t deal with journals as often these days as I used to, let me say two things. +
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Mülteciler: “Damarlarımıza sızan başı bozuk insan seli…’ Utanıyorum.
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Economics is in a funny equilibrium where achieving causal identification over a question--regardless of importance or external validity--receives absolute priority over other work that can still move our priors on major questions, even if not as well identified.
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The most useful advice I received when I was having some particularly nasty fights a few years back was: question your opponents’ evidence and arguments, but never their motives. Just saying.
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“Yuksek faiz, enflasyonun sonucu degil sebebidir” anlayisiyla tutarli bir karar olmus. Bu anlayisa gore, kur artisinin temel (“fundamental”) bir sebebi yok; olay sirf bir “self-fulfilling” spekulasyon olayi. +
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It rained Nobels on Cambridge,MA this morning. Banerjee, Duflo, and Kremer transformed development economics. A richly deserved recognition.
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B. Yildirim'da karizma sifir. Ama, uzulerek soyluyorum, simdiye kadar Imamoglu'ndan daha etkili buluyorum.
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The best advice I got long time ago was that you should not question the motivation of your opponents when you disagree with their views. I still think that's good advice.
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My new essay on what neoliberalism's critics and defenders both get wrong
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Serious question: financial liberalization and globalization (and the crisis they generated) arguably had greater impact on inequality and economic anxiety than trade. Why the resort to trade protectionism but so little backlash against finance?
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I've recorded my first large Zoom session with students on "Pandemics, Climate Change, and Global Economics: Where Did We Go Wrong in Globalization?" Start watching 4 mins in.
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Positive thought of the day. Once we have cheap and quick tests widely available, and that can’t be more than a matter of weeks, the public health and economic costs can go down very rapidly. We wil just get used to widespread and frequent testing until a vaccine is available.
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Daron Acemoglu joins the financial globalization skeptics
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How economists are re-evaluating industrial policy— the short version
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My new paper "Why Does Globalization Fuel Populism? Economics, Culture, and the Rise of Right-Wing Populism"
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What? To anyone with minimal knowledge of economics, the only surprise was how long Turkey was spared a near-certain crisis.
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Two days ago I complained I hadn’t received my own copy yet. And now voila! The magic of Twitter.
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IMF's growth projections for 2021 post-COVID are crazy: 4.5% for advanced countries and 6.6% for developing world. I wish these numbers could be right but they seem beyond wishful thinking to me.
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Cutting spending on infrastructure to fix the budget is the tyranny of senseless accounting over economics, especially in the UK where lagging regions badly need more of it.
The north is already starved of infrastructure.
So why is Sunak thinking about getting rid of HS2?
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Much of this “replication crisis” is something else. It’s a failure to understand that in social science there are few universal truths and most results are contingent on the environment.
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Here is a new website on which some great economists collaborate to bring you relevant economic analysis
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Given the clubbiness, hierarchy, and jerk quotient it's not surprising so many people, especially people of color and women, feel slighted & discriminated against. Only way things can change is by discussing these problems openly and instilling new norms of behavior +
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Second, the field is hierarchical. Even if you are in the right networks, you feel you are constantly being ranked. As a result even top economists are a weirdly insecure bunch. This self-absorption reduces the generosity & mentoring that junior members of the profession receive.
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Third, there are too many jerks in the discipline. Reputation hangs on your publications, and if you are doing well there relative to your peer group – which could be the profession as a whole or simply your own department–you get away with a lot of awful personal behavior. +
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I'm encouraged by the $2 trillion package in the U.S. (10% of GDP!). But it is also a reminder of what an uphill fight developing nations face. The latter risk debt spiraling out of control or hyperinflation if they are as bold fiscally. Massive IMF/WB support needed.
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Turkey’s election were not free or fair by a wide margin. Yet you still have to marvel at the popular support Erdogan retains after 15 years in power (and of running rule of law and free speech to the ground). A truly bad omen for all the other illiberal democracies out there.
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New book with
@ojblanchard1
on what to do about inequality, with lots of great contributions from leading scholars
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What Trump showed him, says
@FukuyamaFrancis
, that he doesn’t understand America after all. For me it’s the other way around. I didn’t understand America before, and now it feels familiar. I come from Turkey.
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My God, this is child abuse 🙂
@rodrikdani
- your youngest follower is confused why this book does not have enough pictures!
#economy
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A propos of nothing (and everything) in Economics today, I think too often we conflate causal inference with understanding what’s going on, and we prioritize the former over the latter.
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which is why this discussion is so important. We all have responsibilities here--but change must start with senior scholars. I'm grateful to all who have spoken out – sometimes at some risk to their career – and made us all so much more conscious of the urgency of the task. END
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A job at Harvard that requires teaching *three* classes a day from the "second quarter onwards" (sic) -- and they did not get suspicious?
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Now out: "Why Does Globalization Fuel Populism? Economics, Culture, and the Rise of Right-Wing Populism"
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“A Primer on Trade and Inequality” — or, what economists knew all along but overlooked at their own peril
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Repeat after me: the answer to any question in economics is, it depends.
Is free trade always good?
@EconTalker
and I discuss this topic in a lively manner on the
@a16z
podcast:
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I know a lot of very clever people. Not all of them are wise.
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After five years, my paper "The Political Economy of Liberal Democracy" (with Sharun Mukand) is finally published (at least online). Would it be immodest to say that I think it is a good paper?
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An honorable action. The Pakistani government's disinvite of
@AtifRMian
not only deprives it of top talent, it also reinforces religious bigotry.
Have resigned from EAC. Painful, deeply sad decision. Grateful for chance to aid analytical reasoning but not when such values compromised. Personally as a Muslim I can't justify this. May Allah forgive/guide me&us all.Ever ready to help.Pakistan Paindabad
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We welcome Daron Acemoglu as the newest member of Economics for Inclusive Prosperity (EfIP). His EfIP brief on good jobs is a must-read.
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Remember when economists didn't write books? (I do.) What the hell happened in recent years? What's the most parsimonious explanation for this outpouring of amazingly readable books by so many great economists?
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Re Turkish elections: Despite the political repression, despite government’s control over the media and judiciary, we thought the opposition had a chance this time around. We must give Kılıçdaroğlu credit for giving us hope.
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This is very important work that upends what economists thought they knew about wage inequality in the U.S.: the culprit is policy-driven loss of bargaining power, much more than skill-biased technological change. By
@LarryMishel
and
@joshbivens_DC
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We must democratize work. Happy to have signed this along with so many other academics.
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Portraying a Gulenist as a “democracy activist” is a serious misunderstanding of what the Gulen movement is about and the role it played, in alliance with Erdogan, in undoing Turkey. So yeah, got this very wrong.
@howserob
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Dolarin yukselisine seyirci kalmak cozum degil zira dolar bazinda borclanmis ozel sektoru iflasa goturecegi gibi enflasyonu kontrolsuz hale getirecek. Er ya da gec bu onlemlerden biri gerekecek. Bekledikce maliyet artiyor.
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My essay on neoliberalism, now as a Guardian long read
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Best advice I ever received on making a decision (from Dixit, when I was on the market). Flip a coin saying "heads I choose A, tails I go to B). Just as the coin is to hit the ground, a voice in your head will say "I hope it comes X." Ignore the coin, and go with the voice.
Question for
#EconAdvice
from an anon: It's decision season for prospective graduate student. Any suggestions on how to make the decision, if you're lucky enough to have choices? Any regrets in how you did it?
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Brilliant to pair environmental economics with growth economics (no, I am not being sarcastic). Congratulations to Bill Nordhaus and Paul Romer.
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Ekonominin su andaki durumu soldaki gibi. Ama ileride sagdaki gibi olacak insallah. (Temsili)
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"The New Economics of Industrial Policy": my new paper with Reka Juhasz and Nathan Lane. Forthcoming in Annual Reviews of Economics. Short version here
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Even if you believe tax incentives sometimes creates good jobs, this makes no sense. It is one U.S. jurisdiction competing against other U.S. jurisdictions to award taxpayer resources to the world's third richest corporation.
New York is giving Amazon a tax subsidy of $48,000 per job plus a straight $325 million cash grant. Plus other incentives.
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Wonderful to see not only these great minds featured, but also the diversity of perspectives they bring to Economics.
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Liberals have to face up to the fact that their “internationalism” has become a cover for corporate and financial special interests. A more inclusive approach can serve both national and global interests better.
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Larry Summers’ argument boils down to saying being a critic of Israeli government policy disqualifies you from co-chairing a task force on anti-semitism. Seems wrong to me. The tone makes it worse. I’m with Steve Levitsky here, bar the colorful language.
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The new Greek agreement makes no sense: continued 3.5% primary surplus thru 2022? When unemployment is still >20%? Economic illiteracy.
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Celebrating the Turkish Republic’s 100th anniversary today. Grateful for what it gave me in my formative years.
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