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Lennart Heim Profile
Lennart Heim

@ohlennart

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managing the flop @RANDcorporation | Also @GovAI_ & @EpochAIResearch

Washington, DC
Joined February 2013
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@ohlennart
Lennart Heim
2 months
China's AI models are closing the gap—and will continue to improve. However, this misses America's strategic compute advantage. In my new commentary, I argue that the TOTAL compute advantage is what export controls preserve and—if leveraged correctly—provides the real edge. 1/
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@ohlennart
Lennart Heim
15 hours
Export control thresholds: &
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@ohlennart
Lennart Heim
15 hours
Every year brings a new threshold and a new chip sitting right below it. This isn't a great chip, Huawei's chips have better specs. But price-performance and software ecosystem matter too. Nvidia's massive margins let them cut prices. They did the same with the H20 before.
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@ohlennart
Lennart Heim
15 hours
Nvidia's B40: built to comply with export controls after the H20 ban. Probably: 148 TFLOP/s FP16, <1.4 TB/s memory bandwidth, max 300 GB/s networking. 15× fewer FLOP/s and 5.7× less bandwidth than the leading B200. But at $6.5-8K and with the software, it'll still sell.
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@ohlennart
Lennart Heim
1 day
RT @sj_manning: The window of opportunity is currently open. The PRC still lacks the compute necessary to widely export and embed their clo….
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@ohlennart
Lennart Heim
1 day
RT @sj_manning: Read the full piece: "Beyond Export Controls: How Strategic Promotion of American AI Abroad Can Protect the Homeland & Chec….
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@ohlennart
Lennart Heim
2 days
This is an important and good paper! As someone often seen as an advocate for training compute thresholds, I'm glad to see criticism focused on what matters most: the regulatory target. But some comments:. First, I shared similar reflections a few months ago after leaving.
@ketanr
Ketan Ramakrishnan
4 days
Frontier AI regulation should focus on the handful of large AI developers at the frontier, not on particular models or uses. That is what Dean Ball (@deanwball) and I argue in a new article, out today from Carnegie (@CarnegieEndow).
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@ohlennart
Lennart Heim
14 days
RT @KonstantinPilz: We took a look at Chinese government efforts to accelerate AI. TL;DR: They are subsidizing at every layer of the stack….
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@ohlennart
Lennart Heim
15 days
RT @jacob_feldgoise: NVIDIA's latest chip architecture (Blackwell) achieves 10 TB/s die-to-die bandwidth—nearly 20x faster than the 910C's….
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@ohlennart
Lennart Heim
15 days
Here's the Substack: . Papers mentioned above: "AGI's Five Hard National Security Problems" ( and "Seeking Stability in the Competition for AI Advantage" (.
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@ohlennart
Lennart Heim
15 days
My colleagues just launched their new Geopolitics of AGI Substack! I recommend following. Expect relevant analysis from @RANDCorporation's experts, such as their recent "AGI's Five Hard National Security Problems" or their thoughtful take on "mutually assured AI malfunction.".
@jim_mitre
Jim Mitre
17 days
The geopolitical and national security implications of advanced AI / AGI will be difficult to navigate. That’s why @RANDCorporation launched the Geopolitics of AGI Substack—insights, hypotheses, and ideas that inform the public debate. Check it out:
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@ohlennart
Lennart Heim
16 days
Plot twist: Replace "shipbuilding" with "chipbuilding" and swap China for that small island neighbor. Same story, different industry.
@JoinFAI
Foundation for American Innovation 🇺🇸🚀
17 days
🚨 NEW EPISODE 🚨.This week on the Dynamist, we brought on @rSanti97, @Chris_Griz, @kelvinotcelsius, and @JoinFAI's Robert Bellafiore to discuss the Techno Industrial Policy Playbook (TIPP), a project whose urgency can be summed up by one graph 🧵
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@ohlennart
Lennart Heim
17 days
RT @GregHBurnham: The core idea is simple: building a broad and deep understanding, bit by bit, over time, is worthwhile. In particular, i….
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@ohlennart
Lennart Heim
23 days
me defending my most recent estimates.
@kipperrii
kipply
23 days
@dylan522p if you can't round away a few orders of magnitude do you even work in ai?.
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@ohlennart
Lennart Heim
24 days
TIL about the N-th Country Experiment.
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@ohlennart
Lennart Heim
25 days
We're planning to review the first batch of applications next week (Monday 6/23)! .Make sure to apply if you're interested in crunching numbers for better AI policy.
@ohlennart
Lennart Heim
1 month
My team at RAND is hiring! . Technical analysis for AI policy is desperately needed. Particularly keen on ML engineers and semiconductor experts eager to shape AI policy. Also seeking excellent generalists excited to join our fast-paced, impact-oriented team. Links below.
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@ohlennart
Lennart Heim
28 days
RT @tbpn: Morning. Here are our guest call-ins today:. - @BerntBornich (1X Tech).- @Emily_Sundberg (Feed Me).- @JoshuaSteinman (Galvanick)….
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@ohlennart
Lennart Heim
29 days
FWIW my production estimates are higher than 200k (and this calculation assumes no production ramp-up). The strategically relevant numbers are also different if this becomes a key priority. More analysis forthcoming on capacity and backfilling potential. 3/3.
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@ohlennart
Lennart Heim
29 days
What they can do: Strategic allocation of small shipments to build ecosystem lock-in for nations with smaller ambitions. That's the real concern—not massive backfilling, but targeted deployment and offering attractive package deals to draw countries into their ecosystem. 2/.
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@ohlennart
Lennart Heim
29 days
If China produces 200k Ascend 910Cs annually, filling the UAE's planned 5GW would require 15 years of production (3.1M chips) while delivering only ½ the performance. Or match performance with 7M chips consuming 2.2x more energy. China cannot backfill projects at this scale. 1/.
@dkaushik96
Divyansh Kaushik
29 days
BIS Undersecretary Kessler to Congress, echoing Secretary @howardlutnick, "Our assessment is that Huawei's Ascend chip production capacity for 2025 will be at or below 200,000, and we project that most or all of that will be delivered to companies within China."
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@ohlennart
Lennart Heim
1 month
RT @KonstantinPilz: People keep asking me ‘Konstantin, where are all the data centers?’ Today, I can finally give you the answer. Explore….
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