sam manning
@sj_manning
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Penelope, Otis, and Annie's dad. Senior Research Fellow @GovAI_
Newbury, MA
Joined February 2010
Many people are asking this. Some starter ideas here:
Serious question: if you believe there was >25% chance that Dario Amodei was right about AI eliminating tens of millions of jobs over the next 1-5 years including half of all entry-level white collar jobs. What would government do now? What would it do if this really happened?
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RT @Manderljung: The EU's Code of Practice for General-Purpose AI is out. As one of the co-chairs who drafted the Safety & Security Chapter….
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I agree with the high-level points here by @anton_d_leicht, give it a read!.
New Post on AI & Jobs: Two Phases of Automation. AI job policy faces a timing problem: We will need to develop policy on existential disruptions while facing a 'normal' automation wave. That makes for treacherous politics & credibility traps. 🧵
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RT @GovAI_: GovAI is hiring!. You can join us as a Research Scholar for a year, or as a Research Fellow on a more permanent basis. The dea….
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I also highly recommend this recent Foreign Policy piece by @vivekchil, which lays out a concrete policy vision for a US AI promotion strategy.
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Therefore, export controls and strategic promotion can work in tandem as part of a comprehensive AI foreign policy strategy. The first denies Beijing access to the crown jewels of advanced AI development; the second secures American leadership in global deployment.
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While export controls buy time and help extend the US compute edge, proactive promotion in strategically important markets could cement US deployment leadership for the long term.
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4. Promoting Democratic Values via AI Exports. By establishing its technology as the global default, the US can potentially help establish an international digital landscape where free speech, privacy, and civil liberties are better protected.
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3. Advancing American Diplomatic and Security Goals. When allies depend on American AI and compute, they have stronger reason to align with US priorities, like complying with export controls or adhering to digital security protocols.
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2. Strengthening America's Future AI Industry + driving economic growth. If American AI and compute providers underpin a large share of the global economy, they will fuel domestic growth and reinforce long-term American tech leadership.
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1. Guarding Against China's Digital Silk Road. As China’s AI and compute offerings improve, Beijing will use state power to subsidize exports to key markets. Proactive promotion of the American AI stack could help capture major market share before Chinese firms can.
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If the compute gap narrows in the future, US–China competition to undergird the global economy with compute and foundation models will intensify. Gaining a foothold in emerging markets before China’s export capabilities mature could help the US achieve several national AI goals:.
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The window of opportunity is currently open. The PRC still lacks the compute necessary to widely export and embed their cloud services and AI systems around the world (see work from @ohlennart below).
China's AI models are closing the gap—and will continue to improve. However, this misses America's strategic compute advantage. In my new commentary, I argue that the TOTAL compute advantage is what export controls preserve and—if leveraged correctly—provides the real edge. 1/
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The US can pursue these steps through government-to-government agreements with countries that are strategically important to its economic, security, or geopolitical interests.
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What is "strategic promotion"? It involves the US govt and companies financing compute infrastructure/access, providing training and technical assistance for AI adoption at scale, and securing trade deals that encourage reliance on trusted American AI and compute providers.
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Read the full piece: "Beyond Export Controls: How Strategic Promotion of American AI Abroad Can Protect the Homeland & Check China"
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.@VP, @mkratsios47 & @davidsacks47 say the US must be the world’s ‘AI partner of choice.’. Why is that a worthy goal—and how do we get there?. In The Republic, I describe how a "Strategic Promotion" agenda could.help ensure US AI and compute anchor the global economy for decades
The United States must not only dominate in the development of frontier AI capabilities, but also must ensure the American AI stack -- from chips, to models, to applications -- is adopted worldwide.
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RT @lucafrighetti: How concerned should we be about AIxBio? We surveyed 46 bio experts and 22 superforecasters:. If LLMs do very well on a….
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This is really good. Private sector has strong incentives here, but governments may still play an important role in providing key aspects of agent infrastructure. New piece by @_achan96_.
New blog post!. AI agents are becoming increasingly capable, but will need new protocols and systems in order to work effectively and safely. Who should build such protocols and systems?
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This is one of the most important papers on the labor market impacts of AI in recent memory. Awesome, clarifying work by @ProfNeilT and @davidautor.
A new paper from David Autor (@davidautor), in collaboration with Neil Thompson (@ProfNeilT), makes an important contribution to explaining how AI is likely to impact labor markets. Based on a rigorous model, confirmed with an analysis of 40 years of data, they provide a nuanced
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