sam manning
@sj_manning
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Penelope, Otis, and Annie's dad. Senior Research Fellow @GovAI_, Non-Resident Fellow @JoinFAI. Economic and labor impacts of advanced AI.
Newbury, MA
Joined February 2010
Many people are asking this. Some starter ideas here: https://t.co/QKOy71ZVEV
Serious question: if you believe there was >25% chance that Dario Amodei was right about AI eliminating tens of millions of jobs over the next 1-5 years including half of all entry-level white collar jobs. What would government do now? What would it do if this really happened?
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BLS projects -6% employment for Computer Programmers by 2034. Software Developers expected to be +15%. Key distinction in the way they define roles: CPs "Work from specifications drawn up by software and web developers or other individuals." Sounds like a coding agent to me!
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Today, over forty leading economists and experts are calling on the Department of Labor to gather more data on AI's jobs impact. Signers include former fed chairs, Nobel laureates, and experts on the right and left. Read the full letter: https://t.co/1wesfldRx8
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Excited to add a 3rd Sam to FAI's staff page
Cool time to share I've joined @JoinFAI as a non-resident fellow. And to say that I've never been to a rave nor am I libertarian. I do care about understanding AI's labor impacts and defining a progress-oriented policy vision for AIxlabor, which I'll be working on w/ the team.
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Cool time to share I've joined @JoinFAI as a non-resident fellow. And to say that I've never been to a rave nor am I libertarian. I do care about understanding AI's labor impacts and defining a progress-oriented policy vision for AIxlabor, which I'll be working on w/ the team.
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Despite poor jobs numbers and recent research showing that AI may be negatively impacting employment of young workers in some sectors, I think the effect of AI on job creation has been overwhelmingly positive to date. When thinking about the state of the US economy, worth
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People are going to start blaming stuff like this on ai if it continues, regardless of whether it’s true (Just like people are blaming ai for rising electricity prices, which any savvy observer of the us grid knows have been baked in for years before ai data center demand)
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We've updated a paper on the 3-year, $1000/month U.S. guaranteed income study. New results, in 3 figures: 🧵 1) Subjective well-being significantly improved in the treatment group in year 1, but there were no sig differences between the treatment & control group after that. 1/
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Mantic is out of stealth today! I'm incredibly excited for the technical progress we are making on AI forecasting.
Mantic is a world-class technical team on a mission to solve the next AI grand challenge: predicting global events with superhuman accuracy. https://t.co/drL4HagUic
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This seems like the most serious & most credible attempt to answer a question on many minds - what does AI do to entry-level labor market?
Is AI already impacting the job market? A new paper from me, @erikbryn, and @RuyuChen at @DigEconLab digs into data from ADP. We find some of the ***first large-scale evidence of employment declines for entry-level workers in AI-exposed jobs.*** A thread on our paper:
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Rent these chips, it's the best of both worlds.
New podcast with @crmiller1 and @jordanschnyc is out - Is the H20 an obsolete chip? - The ladder of what to give up: giving chips up first makes sense, fair to debate H20s - Where we should draw red lines because otherwise I'll get a heart attack (nearly maxed out on gray hair)
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Here's some advice I often find myself giving people keen to do AI governance research: - Take trends seriously - Make up your own mind - Get a handle on the technical stuff - Ground yourself in concrete policy choices - Back yourself https://t.co/AcZGFcl6Z8
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Interestingly, an economics paper that came out in 2023 predicting which jobs would overlap most with AI turned out to be right. A new Microsoft study of actual AI use by workers (more on that in another post) found a 90% correlation between real world overlap & the predictions.
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🚨 New Report: Global Compute & National Security 🛡️ How the US can secure global AI leadership, why maintaining the “compute” advantage matters, and how proactive partnerships can strengthen America’s edge. 🧵1/
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Very cool resource on SB 53 by @Miles_M_K - a physics undergrad at Williams who made it in his free time. Check it out!
I made a website to explain SB 53, a proposed California state law that would require large AI developers to be more transparent about their safety practices. The site shows you the bill text enriched with explanatory annotations.
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🚀Looking for a Manager or Associate Director to help launch EconTAI at @UVA - a new initiative on the transformative economic implications of advanced AI. Looking for someone passionate about AI & shaping the future. Please apply, RT or tag someone perfect for this role!🎯
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New results on the impact of $1000/month of unconditional cash assistance on parenting and children's outcomes.
1000 low income adults were randomly selected to receive $1000/month for 3 years, with a control group receiving $50/month over that same period. Many of them had children in the household. How did it affect how they parented and their kids?
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@EpochAIResearch link to paper with @iyngkarran : https://t.co/AGlaEdVdSZ And the great work by @benmcottier and @everysum at Epoch:
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We estimate there will be 103-306 10^25 FLOP models released by end of 2028. @EpochAIResearch 's median estimate is 246. That's a lot of covered models. The commission can adapt these thresholds. Important q is how exactly they should be updated over time.
So every major model is already exceeding or will soon exceed the EU's systemic risk FLOP limit when it comes into effect next year.
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NEW: There’s been a lot of discussion lately about rising graduate unemployment. I dug a little closer and a striking story emerged: Unemployment is climbing among young graduate *men*, but college-educated young women are generally doing okay.
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