sam manning
@sj_manning
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Margot, Penelope, Otis, and Annie's dad. Senior Research Fellow @GovAI_, Non-Resident Fellow @JoinFAI. Economic and labor impacts of advanced AI.
Newbury, MA
Joined February 2010
Many people are asking this. Some starter ideas here: https://t.co/QKOy71ZVEV
Serious question: if you believe there was >25% chance that Dario Amodei was right about AI eliminating tens of millions of jobs over the next 1-5 years including half of all entry-level white collar jobs. What would government do now? What would it do if this really happened?
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The International AI Safety Report has a nice new website, making it easier to navigate through the Annual Report's content. We also published our first Key Update brief today. Check it out:
internationalaisafetyreport.org
AI is evolving too quickly for an annual report to suffice. To help policymakers keep pace, we're introducing the first Key Update to the International AI Safety Report. 🧵⬇️ (1/10)
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We asked economists and researchers to explore policy responses to the potential economic effects of powerful AI. Now, we're sharing some of the initial ideas and feedback we received.
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NEW: AI and Labor Markets: What We Know and Don’t Know There is a lot we don't know! I wrote an essay outlining where we need more research. A short thread with a link to the piece:
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Great to see @AnthropicAI leading the industry in preparing for a wide range of labor market impacts from advanced AI. And nice of them to shoutout our ideas around Automation Adjustment Assistance as one option to provide targeted support for workers displaced by AI.
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I’m hiring a pre-doc! Come work with me on how AI is changing the labor market and how algorithms impact markets. Non-econ backgrounds welcome. Application details below – excited to collaborate! Start: Summer 2026 Deadline: Nov 1, 2025 https://t.co/2joGp5czWN
@predoc_org
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I wrote a long blot post on the economics of AI, prompted by two great workshops (Windfall and NBER), and me leaving OpenAI for METR: TLDR: we driving in the fog. 1. There is no standard model of AI’s economic impact. Economists have been using a wide range of assumptions to
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FAI is hiring! Come join the AI policy team to work with @hamandcheese, @deanwball, and me at @JoinFAI.
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This is a terrific article by @deenamousa about why AI hasn't taken all of the radiology jobs.
In 2016, Geoffrey Hinton warned students not to train as radiologists, the field was so ripe for AI automation. Today, there are more new radiologist jobs than ever and radiologist wages are up 48%. Yet AI *has* exploded in the field. So what happened? https://t.co/hdrZGNlHc7
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At a higher level, I worry tradeoffs in the run-up to AGI could be btw allocating compute to AI R&D vs military+defense vs public goods (health research) vs consumer use. Think incentives mostly tilt toward the first two if compute scarce and more inference=more capabilities.
Abundant Intelligence:
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Nice thread of talk summaries from papers presented by economists & economic sociologists at a conference taking the prospect of transformative AI seriously. Lots of smart people doing interesting work to try and understand what this new era means for firms, science & all of us.
Live from Palo Alto! "The Economics of Transformative AI" @nberpubs workshop. I will be trying to live tweet (mega jet lagged--flew from HKG--, so I really hope I can keep it up) the papers presented. Watch this thread Here is the fantastic line up https://t.co/w10NL1HgKF
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Happy and honored to have presented my paper with @sj_manning at the NBER Economics of Transformative AI Workshop @Stanford!
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Day 2 of "The Economics of Transformative AI" @nberpubs A lot of thought-provoking papers trying to imagine how would (economically) a world where AI is able to do most/all jobs work: tax, life satisfaction, competition... I will keep twitting the papers through the day.
Live from Palo Alto! "The Economics of Transformative AI" @nberpubs workshop. I will be trying to live tweet (mega jet lagged--flew from HKG--, so I really hope I can keep it up) the papers presented. Watch this thread Here is the fantastic line up https://t.co/w10NL1HgKF
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Scarce compute means higher compute prices. The more it costs to automate things, drive scientific progress, etc. the less "material abundance" we can create. If you want AI's benefits to be widely accessible, compute and energy abundance should be a priority!
OpenAI President, Greg Brockman: By 2030, AI will enable a world of "material abundance" but also one of "absolute compute scarcity" "the real bottleneck isn't software, it's infrastructure" So we want to increase the intelligence, but also the availability of that
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this is incredible stuff. so cool to see @AnthropicAI release more valuable data on AI usage across the economy
The Anthropic Economic Index now covers geographic and 1P API data. We’re releasing new research, open source datasets, and an interactive website to explore AI usage across the world.
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BLS projects -6% employment for Computer Programmers by 2034. Software Developers expected to be +15%. Key distinction in the way they define roles: CPs "Work from specifications drawn up by software and web developers or other individuals." Sounds like a coding agent to me!
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Today, over forty leading economists and experts are calling on the Department of Labor to gather more data on AI's jobs impact. Signers include former fed chairs, Nobel laureates, and experts on the right and left. Read the full letter: https://t.co/1wesfldRx8
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Excited to add a 3rd Sam to FAI's staff page
Cool time to share I've joined @JoinFAI as a non-resident fellow. And to say that I've never been to a rave nor am I libertarian. I do care about understanding AI's labor impacts and defining a progress-oriented policy vision for AIxlabor, which I'll be working on w/ the team.
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Cool time to share I've joined @JoinFAI as a non-resident fellow. And to say that I've never been to a rave nor am I libertarian. I do care about understanding AI's labor impacts and defining a progress-oriented policy vision for AIxlabor, which I'll be working on w/ the team.
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