Murtaza Syed
@murtazahsyed
Followers
10,457
Following
584
Media
299
Statuses
2,634
AIIB | Deputy Governor, SBP | IMF | Mahbub ul Haq | IFS | Oxford | "In the end, no one will remember what u said. They will only remember how u made them feel."
Beijing, China
Joined July 2015
Don't wanna be here?
Send us removal request.
Explore trending content on Musk Viewer
Taylor
• 755466 Tweets
Leverkusen
• 405725 Tweets
hailey
• 269080 Tweets
TTPD
• 168887 Tweets
Whindersson
• 163101 Tweets
Selena
• 79234 Tweets
Celtics
• 66705 Tweets
Xabi Alonso
• 65370 Tweets
Maranhão
• 60755 Tweets
メイドの日
• 60538 Tweets
#虎に翼
• 54284 Tweets
Eddie
• 43008 Tweets
Garland
• 30924 Tweets
Endrick
• 29299 Tweets
Cavs
• 28081 Tweets
Tatum
• 26597 Tweets
メイド服
• 23837 Tweets
ドラマ化
• 21988 Tweets
Palacios
• 21310 Tweets
Cano
• 18321 Tweets
Cleveland
• 16911 Tweets
Galactus
• 15659 Tweets
PRISCILLA
• 15620 Tweets
#911onABC
• 15363 Tweets
San Lorenzo
• 14744 Tweets
Veiga
• 13401 Tweets
Canes
• 13176 Tweets
Pinned Tweet
At the
@IMFNews
, one of the departments I used to work for many moons ago was called SPR.
It's quite an important one there, and has ebbed and flowed some over the years.
Here is an ode I wrote to it yesterday in
@FTAlphaville
, with thanks to
@RobinWigg
10
15
116
Some 30 years ago, India too was on the edge of bankruptcy. In response, its Finance Minister delivered a budget speech for the ages. It changed India forever. It couldn't be more different than the budget we have recently heard in Pak. A thread on that remarkable India speech...
436
2K
10K
I am often asked why Pakistan keeps going to the IMF. A whopping 23 programs shows we are addicted to the Fund’s tough love. In fact, we are the IMF’s most “loyal” customers (Argentina with 21 is no. two). By contrast, our Midnight twin, India has only ever been to the IMF once.
113
588
2K
Last week, the
@IMFNews
released its latest report on Pakistan. It marked the start of our 24th waltz together. It pulled us back from the brink of default. We all heaved a sigh of relief. But the report reads like an SOS. A last call. You might want to sit down for this one ...
64
613
2K
First, India's self-effacing FM, Manmohan Singh, an accomplished economist, did not dwell on what his predecessors had done or on imagined global conspiracies. He acknowledged that the country was in its deepest ever crisis & that the crisis was of India’s own making...
13
157
1K
So I got some requests after my last post to shed a bit more light on how the IMF works, especially in relation to its program with Pakistan. As some of you may know, I worked at the Fund a long long time ago in a galaxy far far away ...
80
268
1K
He pulled no punches: India was living on borrowed resources & borrowed time. There was no time to waste if it was to survive. There were no soft options left. But India could rise from the ashes if it did the hard yards. The emergence of India was "an idea whose time had come."
6
117
940
Some lessons for Pak policymakers: tell the truth, correctly diagnose your problems, trust economic experts, provide them political cover, stop pretending there are quick fixes, integrate with the world & inspire your people with a hopeful but honest message. It's about time.
24
159
859
Second, instead of pretending that the crisis was temporary and life could go quickly go back to some imagined past "golden period", he made it clear that the crisis was endemic and would take at least 3 years of determined action to resolve. But it would be worth it in the end.
2
107
851
In the 1990s, Pakistan’s disastrous IPP deals sowed the seeds for today’s unaffordable electricity & acute debt crisis. Foreign deals involving trade, investment& energy require an exceptional degree of competence &care. We are short on all these. No country does this to itself…
36
376
665
Third, he was brutally honest about the fatal mistakes in Ind's growth model. Like Pak today, Ind was running large fiscal¤t account deficits. These were in turn responsible for the build up in domestic and external debt that was crippling the economy. This game was now up.
6
96
811
Off to Karachi from Pindi on the Green Line train. Nothing like a train to bring back happy childhood memories of cross-crossing the country and stopping at exotic stations in unfamiliar towns. Fingers crossed …
63
25
799
Fourth, he presented a strong stabilization plan that was necessary to deal with the immediate crisis, centered on slashing wasteful govt spending on tax incentives, untargeted export subsidies, meaningless ministries and loss-making SOEs, while moving to a more flexible Rupee.
6
108
776
Fifth, to prevent this stabilization from killing the economy & hurting the poor, he simultaneously freed the private sector by getting rid of inefficient government controls (the notorious License Raj), trade restrictions, public monopolies & barriers to entry for new firms...
6
111
750
Pakistan is indeed in a deep economic crisis. But our moral crisis is deeper.
24
190
731
The speech heralded a breath taking period of reform. While the govt lost the next election, its legacy was assured. It laid the foundation for India's miracle, and created a consensus within its fractious democracy for deregulation&integration with the world. The rest is history
6
84
690
Zia Sahab interviewing Immy. I think everyone (literally everyone) in Pakistan has had an Imran moment at some point in the last 50 years. Maybe even in the world, come to think of it. Some would say he is Pakistan’s Forrest Gump… 🙃
32
80
681
For this, he was able to rely on the eponymous “M-document”, prepared by reform-minded Economic Secretaries, which had the buy-in of imp stakeholders, including his remarkable PM, Narasimha Rao, who stood by him through all the hard reforms despite heading a minority govt.
4
74
670
And sixth, he did not implement reforms haphazardly but paid due attention to coordination and sequencing so that they would not have undesirable consequences like a surge in inflation or imports...
2
90
665
... as well as foreigners wanting to produce and invest in the country. Pak needs similarly clever quid pro quos for getting domestic stakeholders to support our much needed reforms.
7
72
644
So, um, some personal news. I will b joining
@AIIB_Official
next week as Head of Ecosystem (a title that miraculously sounds both grandiose & vapid at the same time). I am excited about returning to Beijing a decade after my last stint there. I will miss the homeland but...
120
21
540
It is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong
— Voltaire
11
157
505
What a piece.
Take a bow,
@AsadRahim
, and all those crazy, brilliant kids who voted baingan. Stay crazy and may you never turn boomer like us !
On one side was the deep state, absurd verdicts from the courts, relentless police brutality, the re-laundered class of 1985, and their boomer cheerleaders in the press.
On the other was some kid voting for baingan.
Piece today, on the big upset:
114
2K
5K
8
115
486
If this isn’t the most insane statistic in the history of cricket, I don’t know what is.
Imran Khan had both the best bowling and batting average in the 1980s. Better than both Marshall and Richards.
You can’t make this stuff up, folks
It has to be Imran Khan...
He had the best batting average and best bowling average for not 1,2 but for more than a decade...
Led and inspired pakistan core of pacers and amongst the few who fought hard with mighty Windies team(never lost to them in 80s)
11
109
293
11
134
485
Signing off with the customary soundtrack recommendation. In English, it's the always upbeat Van Morrison and his fantastic horn section to lift the mood in what is otherwise a horribly depressing time ...
4
35
448
A thread on “Guns, Babies, and China” (with apologies to Jared Diamond). At the risk of over-simplification, I would argue that the seeds of our economic problems over the last quarter century were sown by 3 major forces, all of which were deliberate policy mis-choices:
36
138
450
With the IMF team leaving town and all of us trying to read the tea leaves, here is my 2 cents. I was not privy to any of the discussions, but based on my previous experiences at the Fund and negotiating with them, here is where I think it's at:
37
95
445
And in Urdu, it is Faiz sahab, the eternal optimist providing the perfect backdrop to that unforgettable PTV drama from 1987...
27
39
420
The
#RoshanDigitalAccount
was one of the best things I was associated with during my time
@StateBank_Pak
. It was our attempt to use technology to connect our diaspora to the Pak economy. The next step would have been to direct the flows to investments in the real economy (FDI)…
28
69
424
My latest trick.
Pakistan urgently needs debt relief. To pretend otherwise is suicidal.
It would impose unbearable austerity & could spark a major social revolt.
Alas, in our desperation for an IMF agreement, this could well be the path we choose.
46
117
391
And so it begins (again). Time to move on once more. This time from Karachi to Beijing. Parting is such sweet sorrow. Handle with care …
70
3
377
Remembering the remarkable Fatima Jinnah on the anniversary of her passing. At a time when few women participated in public life, even in the West, she was front and center, always by the Quaid’s side. That powerful&deliberate symbolism should have been a guide for us. If only…
10
98
374
The evil man will burn down his own nation in order to rule over the ashes
— Sun Tzu
6
114
367
A final thread on the exchange rate. It is slightly pointy-headed again but covers the real effective exchange rate (REER) and how it is commonly misinterpreted in Pakistan. Shout out to
@MoazzamIlyas4
who asked for it last night. If u don't like this thread, u can blame him 🤪
26
107
347
“Life is a series of hellos and goodbyes, and I guess it’s time for goodbye again.” (Billy Joel) Off to Beijing, via Wuhan of all places. Thanks everyone. Take care of yourselves and those around you …
65
2
339
My favorite Marrakesh moment. A chance meet up with Montek Singh Ahluwalia, one of the unsung architects of India’s historic 1991 reforms.
When Ind needed to resurrect itself, it didn’t go for cheap thrills. It relied instead on his meticulous reform agenda, the “M” document…
10
31
344
It has been sad to see Pakistan self-destruct. The country's policymakers (and the IMF) are letting our people down, especially the young and the dispossessed. This is not how responsible nations behave. But we are where we are and must now dig our way out once again ...
“The country’s economic crisis has brought it to the brink of default” laments a former central banker. “It did not have to be this way”
14
108
229
18
63
315
We are poor because our elites have no sense of nation
— F. Sionil José (Filipino novelist)
10
67
315
@Hashim_LHR
"If I fail, that is of no great consequence. But who fails if India wins?" was Manmohan's refrain for the ages at that time...
5
40
305
In the paper today, I wrote about the 7 sins of economic managers in failing states like Pakistan: a fetish for growth, myopia, weak preparation, love of controls, lack of experimentation& evaluation, self absorption & a schizophrenic relationship with IMF
25
146
279
In the final analysis,
security means
a child
who did not
die
a disease
that did not
spread
an ethnic tension
that did not
explode
a dissident
who was not
silenced
a human spirit
that was
not
c
r
u
s
h
e
d
— Mahbub ul Haq, Pakistan’s finest ever economist
7
94
309
While it is hard to think about anything except the tragedy in Gaza, here are my 8 takeaways from last week’s IMF/WB Meetings & what they might mean for Pak.
1️⃣ The mood in Marrakesh was somber, amid yet another reminder that the world is (literally & figuratively) on fire…
7
84
303
Made the mistake of trying to get to the Pindi stadium for the big PSL game tonight. It’s been an hour & a bit and I just went through my 12th security gate. Man, I haven’t felt this safe since 1969. Still trying to get into the ground though. Don’t try this at home, folks 🙃
22
13
297
Pakistan dodged a bullet today. We should heave a sigh of relief. But we should also ask why we were taken so close to the edge over the last 2 yrs when we knew we had no option but the IMF. I wrote about this negligence earlier this yr. It is a sad tale.
20
87
293
A lot of people have asked me to do a thread on the exchange rate, so here goes. I will cut some corners in the interest of speaking plainly. While my reference is Pakistan, I think what I say applies more generally to emerging market and poor countries.
9
63
282
Thank you friends 4 your heartwarming & kind wishes 4 my new gig. I am sad 2 leave. I would return in a heartbeat if the chance ever comes again 2 serve my country in an environment that values technocratic skills & gives freedom 2 deliver. There is no greater honor &satisfaction
25
11
280
I spoke to Bloomberg a few days ago (article follows at the end of the thread below) & also gave a live TV interview this morning on Pakistan's economic crisis. My 10 main messages are:
1. Pakistan appears close 2 reaching a staff level agreement with the IMF on the next review
9
66
267
Eid Mubarak, everyone. In a world where you can be anything, be this little kid. If you can’t, then at least be his father …
20
22
258
A brilliant article on what happens when you rise to the top and how to avoid it. A must read on good leadership. I wish I had read it sooner.
10
71
260
Yesterday was the 25th anniversary of Mahbub ul Haq’s passing. He was my first boss and a monumental intellect. Here’s an ode I wrote to him last year. The fact that hardly any one in Pak remembered him tells you a lot about our national predicament …
18
53
253
When small men begin to cast big shadows, it means that the sun is about to set
— Lin Yutang
11
52
252
When small men begin to cast big shadows, it means that the sun is about to set
— Lin Yutang
6
60
243
Running to the global emergency ward 23 times in 75 years is no way to run a country. So this thread will try to explain as plainly as possible why Pakistan has never been able to get off the IMF treadmill. Buckle up and pour yourself a strong one. It’s not a pretty story…
7
28
238
Dear friends, I just wanted to thank you all for the best fortnight of my Twitter life. It has been so much fun interacting with you all, from around the world. We live, we learn. Let us just always be kind, if we can. Tomorrow, I will be serious again, but tonight I leave you...
23
4
238
@Champakali03
Interesting, Kumar. But as someone who spent a lot of time in the IMF, which is frankly quite clueless about structural reforms and growth, I sincerely doubt it…
16
4
224
Goodbye Zia sahab. U were our Jimmy Fallon when talk shows were not even a thing. U were our nation’s bard through the ages. U made us look good & you made us believe. We will never forget u. This clip gives us a glimpse of the way we were &could be again
7
13
225
... the good news is that I will just b next door. The bad news is that I plan 2 continue my Twitter ramblings. If u happen to be in Isb or Khi over the next month, please give me a shout. After that, if u ever see me on the streets of Beijing, please do say hello. Love, Murtaza
24
2
218
IMF programs are meant to provide space for adjustment & reform
They do so by providing money & catalyzing other inflows that build a country’s FX reserves & help them repay their external debtors
But Pakistan’s debt repayment needs are now so high that this won’t work …
1/4
7
57
220
dil na umeed tau nahin
na kaam hi to hai
lambi hai gham ki shaam
magar shaam hi to hai
***
My heart
it may be
helpless
but
it is not
without
hope
Our night of sorrow
it may be
long
but
it is only
a night
it is not
without
end
— Faiz Ahmed Faiz
7
57
220
Dear friends, some well wishers have pointed out that the Gump ref in my tweet below may be interpreted as suggesting something about IK's intelligence. I'd like to clarify that my ref was bcoz, like Gump, IK 2 met everyone of historical importance during his life. Nothing else.
Zia Sahab interviewing Immy. I think everyone (literally everyone) in Pakistan has had an Imran moment at some point in the last 50 years. Maybe even in the world, come to think of it. Some would say he is Pakistan’s Forrest Gump… 🙃
32
80
681
25
16
216
The war will end.The leaders will shake hands.The old woman will keep waiting for her martyred son.That girl will wait for her beloved husband.And those children will wait for their heroic father.
I don't know who sold our homeland.
But I saw who paid the price.
— M. Darwish
3
71
217
Pakistan is a canary in the coal-mine in a world where almost 60 countries are drowning in debt&facing monumental risks from climate change. It is times like these when global safety nets are most needed. Only time will tell if we, & the world, are adequately prepared. Over & out
20
45
205
A call to arms as the clock winds down. It is time to stand up, brothers and sisters in arms.
@MuzzammilAslam3
@MiftahIsmail
@Hammad_Azhar
25
50
209
First, the IMF has come as close to declaring our debt unsustainable as it can diplomatically do. Risks are “exceptionally high” & the path to sustainability is “narrow”. Among many other implausible things, it requires a kind of austerity that Pak has never pulled off before …
3
41
201
Pak will need to run a primary fiscal surplus this yr. The last time it did so was 20 yrs ago during the war on terror, when foreign grants were pouring in. It will have to repeat this feat for at least 4 more yrs. By global standards, this has a probability of 0.15
7
32
195
Javed Miandad, the greatest fighter of all time (only Rafa comes close). The man Richards picked 2 bat 4 his life. The man who was an equal partner with Imran in our greatest test wins in the 80s. The most loyal Deputy anyone could ever want. They don’t make ‘em like him anymore
Miandad was the greatest troll on the field to have ever played a sport, imo. While the opposition teams avoided sledging him as a strategy knowing it brings out the best in him. A master with a mind of steel no player or team managed to intimidate ...
14
83
398
8
24
200
Pakistan's latest economic predicament is largely man-made. 18 months of smoke and mirrors have brought us to the edge at home and damaged our standing abroad.
It did not have to be this way.
19
73
192
Eid Mubarak, brothers and sisters
(Tintin, our childhood hero, re- imagined by my talented brother, Amer)
10
16
191
It is depressing to see our politicians rail against each other whenever we have to go to the IMF. If you leave office with foreign exchange reserves teetering, you have failed. It really is as simple as that.
9
28
188
Between the devil & the deep blue sea.
Pakistan owes $7.5bn to the IMF alone over the next 5 years, against FX reserves of $8bn.
This means the Fund is forced to bail itself out by giving us yet another program. The new IMF program will basically be used to pay the IMF back.
Review of my work with
@dridupita
@_ashuklaa
"Egypt expanded its loan to $8bn, but it has $10bn to pay back to IMF over the next 2 years
It’s a case of borrowing from Peter to pay Paul, only here Peter & Paul are the same exasperated person at the IMF”
1
43
101
11
62
187
Since the turn of the century, Pak has lost the plot while Ind & BGD have thrived. Three cardinal policy mistakes are to blame. They are holding a whole generation hostage. We must immediately set out to rectify them. There is no more time left to waste.
10
50
185
The less talent they have, the more pride, vanity and arrogance they have. All these fools, however, find other fools who applaud them.
— Erasmus, 1509
4
56
182
On the left, Sarfraz to Gavaskar. Lahore, November 1978.
On the right, the colorful women’s enclosure looks on, defying the dawn of the colourless Zia era.
Now that, is called atmosphere...
16
18
176
Final killer statistic: Pakistan has less than $3 billion in reserves today. Our reserves have never exceeded $21 billion in our history. Bangladesh has around $35 billion, India has around $600 billion and China has around $4 trillion. Go figure...
19
31
175
Intellectuals like to think of themselves as dissidents, courageous, standing up to power.
Absolutely untrue: that is just a small fringe and they are usually punished.
The tendency of intellectuals to go along like a herd in support of state power is overwhelming.
— Chomsky
3
66
169
Wrote this about Mahbub ul Haq, who was our Amartya Sen. He inspired me to return home. While he had some warts like all of us, we need to do a better job of commemorating our heroes & educating ourselves about them.
4
41
170
Phewww. OK, final thread on the exchange rate, which is linked to the previous two. I am exhausted writing them so can only imagine what it must be like to be reading them (apologies). This final part asks what can go wrong with the exchange rate system in Pak?
10
35
172
I wrote this for a compendium commemorating 75 yrs of Pakistan's independence, being exquisitely curated by
@YousufNazar
. As with my other dabblings, I try to present the issue in a readable & relatively non-technical (some would say obvious) way. Some of the main messages:
16
46
168
If you invite a bear to dance, it's not you who decides when the dance is over.
It's the bear.
— Old Russian proverb
1
30
167
It was 32 years ago today
Sgt Pepper taught the band to play
They’ve been going in and out of style
But they’re guaranteed to raise a smile
— Imran and Javed putting on a partnership for the ages in the World Cup final
(March 25, 1992)
6
29
167
So make up your own mind about where this leaves debt sustainability. Unfortunately, the consequence of not calling it like it is (as seen in so many cases across the world) is an impossible amount of austerity, no real room to protect the vulnerable & a bigger eventual reckoning
3
30
157
You can't cross the sea merely by standing and staring at the water
— Rabindranath Tagore
6
26
160
The man who blames others has a long way to go in his journey
The man who blames himself is half way there
The man who blames no one has already arrived
— Chinese Proverb
2
37
161
Totalitarianism in power invariably replaces all first-rate talents, regardless of their sympathies, with those crackpots and fools whose lack of intelligence and creativity is still the best guarantee of their loyalty
— Hannah Arendt, “The Origins of Totalitarianism”
6
67
157
Yesterday,
@brecordernews
was kind enough 2 publish my exchange rate article. It brings together my earlier multiple Twitter threads on the topic. Sad 2 see the Rupee plummeting today. This article explains how to prevent this. Sneak peak: no gimmicks work
12
36
158
Here, it's especially disappointing that the IMF has not used its own latest research, which shows that by killing growth, consolidations don't make debt more sustainable. Instead, in cases of distress, they need to be combined with debt restructuring
3
27
153
Countries go to the IMF when they run out of foreign exchange reserves. These reserves are needed to pay for imports and to pay back money borrowed from foreign countries, the IMF and World Bank, and foreign residents.
1
11
148
Unfortunately, IMF forecasts of Pak's public debt and the key factors that affect it -- the primary deficit, interest rates (r) and growth (g) -- have historically been wildly optimistic ...
1
30
143
We can easily forgive a child who is afraid of the dark.
The real tragedy of life is when men are afraid of the light.
— Plato
9
31
151
Second, Pak will need some $88 billion over the next 3 years to repay external debt coming due & cover even minimal current account deficits of $6-7 bn a year. This leaves no room for maneuver. It requires an IMF program, remaining on-track with it (historically unprecedented)...
4
41
141
Once upon a time, some friends of Faiz organized a meeting to celebrate his birthday. In the evening, the police dumped them in jail. As this distinguished crowd entered the precincts, a prisoner asked which political party they belonged to.
‘The birthday party,’ they replied
6
25
151
This is a continuation of my previous thread. Let us first consider what factors affect the value of a currency under a flexible exchange rate. On a day 2 day basis, the exchange rate is determined by the demand and supply of foreign currency in the interbank market.
14
39
144
“Why are so many agreements being issued at such frightening speed for power generation up to 13,000MW, which is 4 times the capacity recommended by the government’s own task force on energy?”
— Sartaj Aziz (1994), on the genesis of Pak’s infamous & criminal capacity payments
5
64
149
The day is not far off when the economic problem will take the back seat where it belongs, and the arena of the heart and the head will be occupied or reoccupied, by our real problems - the problems of life and of human relations, of creation and behaviour and religion
— Keynes
7
19
141
Third, Pak's growth model is now well & truly past its sell-by date. It was fueled by fiscal stimulus and consumption. It was funded by borrowing from future generations (domestic debt) and the outside world (external debt). Given the state of our debt, this game is now up ...
4
26
138
For debt to be sustainable, all the trends of the last 5 yrs will need to be put into reverse: budgets will need to be much tighter (dark blue), the Rupee will need to be stable (yellow), and growth a lot higher (light blue) despite much tighter fiscal & monetary policy (green)
1
28
138
@Hammad_Azhar
Hammad, your own party needs to elevate you to Finance Ministerial candidate. You are exactly the kind of face of the future that Pakistan needs.
5
14
129
A country builds foreign exchange reserves either by (1) running a current account surplus (exports plus remittances exceeding imports) OR (2) attracting foreign currency inflows that exceed its current account deficit (reverse of surplus).
2
19
138
No army can withstand the strength of an idea whose time has come
— Victor Hugo
8
37
139
Pakistan turns 76. Here is (some of) what Faiz wrote when we were born…
But this is not the dawn
for which we yearned
the oppression of darkness
has not been lifted
and our moment of salvation
has yet to come
so let us walk on
for the home we seek
has still to arrive
4
25
137
Don’t cling to a mistake just because you spent a lot of time making it
— Aubrey de Grey
8
35
139