"A senior Egyptian official told a European counterpart:
“You want us to take 1mn people? Well, I am going to send them to Europe.
You care about human rights so much — well you take them.”"
صورة تلخص أسباب أزمة مصر:
- البرتقالي: عجز مزمن في الحساب الجاري (تقريبا = الصادرات - الواردات + التحويلات)
- الأزرق: تمويل الأموال الساخنة للعجز من 2017 حتى 2021، وهروبها بعد 2022
- الأبيض: الاستثمارات الأجنبية المباشرة أقل من أن تسد الفجوة
الدرس من الأزمة؟ تجنب 4 أمور
1/6
Saudi is scaling back 'The Line' project in Neom
• 2030 population target: from 1.5 million to 300k
• Length: from 170 km to 2.4 km by 2030
• At least one contractor is dismissing some workers on the site
Egypt: The currency is in free-fall
Black market rate: 1 dollar = 70 pounds
Official rate: 1 dollar = 30.9 pounds
The pounds has weakened by nearly 24% in the market in 2024
هل ستخفض مصر قيمة الجنيه؟
هناك فجوة تمويلية
تحتاج مصر إلى 41 مليار دولار حتى نهاية 2023 لسد:
- عجز الحساب الجاري (تقريبا = الصادرات - الواردات + التحويلات)
- والديون المستحقة
بينما لا يغطي الاحتياطي الأجنبي (33 مليار دولار، الصورة) لوحده هذه الفاتورة
1/6
The UAE & Qatar could make every citizen a millionaire overnight
How? By selling their assets abroad & distributing the proceeds equally
But Abu Dhabi, Doha & their neighbours in the GCC aren’t following a sell-and-distribute strategy
So how are they using their wealth?
1/7
الخلاصة، مصر دخلت في أزمة لأنها:
- اقترضت أموال ساخنة
- لبناء مدن وجسور غير منتجة اقتصاديا
- لم تستطع رفع الصادرات، أو الاعتماد على تمويل طويل الأجل، بسبب تغول الجيش في الاقتصاد
- غطت على نقاط الضعف بتثبيت سعر الصرف، إلى أن اشتدت عليها الضائقة
6/6
Why Egypt may need to devalue the pound
The country has a funding problem
It’ll need $41b by end-2023 to pay for:
- the current account deficit
- maturing debt
International reserves ($33b, chart) can only partially cover these before completely running out
1/5
2021 hasn't been a good year for emerging markets -- most currencies have weakened against the dollar. But the Turkish lira still stands out with its 51% depreciation.
On 6 March, Egypt said:
- It was floating the currency
- By "allowing the exchange rate to be determined by market forces"
The horizontal movement of the pound since then suggests a "re-pegging" not a "floatation"
Iran designed its retaliation on Israel to cause:
1. Max symbolism:
- 300 missiles & drones
- 1st ever direct attack
- Sirens sounding alarm in Israel
2. Min damage:
- Attack well-telegraphed
- Reported days in advance
- No deaths, no major damages
Emerging markets are facing rising debt, slowing growth & soaring yields
Russia & Sri Lanka both defaulted -- for different reasons -- who's next?
We rank 50 countries to find El Salvador, Ghana, Egypt, Tunisia & Pakistan to be the most vulnerable
Full analysis on
@TheTerminal
Egypt paradox:
Why did the economic crisis happen?
Partly because Egypt borrowed from abroad to build a new capital city that has limited economic return
How is Egypt getting out of crisis?
By taking money from abroad to build even more cities
ما العامل المشترك بين اقتصادات العراق ودول الخليج ومصر والأردن؟
الجواب: اعتماد الجميع على الريع
خبر بيع مصر لأراضي في ساحلها الشمالي يؤكد هذا انتشار النموذج
لنستعرض بعض تجليات الريع في العالم العربي
1/6
البرنامج الأكثر شعبية في العراق
@Albasheershow
يعرض قضية رفع قيمة الدينار
مع إشارة من
@ahmedalbasheer1
إلى رأيي في أن تغيير سعر الصرف سيزيد من اعتماد العراق على النفط
الكلام في هذا الموضوع حوالي الدقيقة 44:10 في الرابط
احتياطي النقد الأجنبي لمصر معظمه قروض
ودائع طويلة الأجل = 15 مليار دولار، من:
الإمارات = 5.7 مليار
السعودية = 5.3
الكويت = 4
ودائع قصيرة الأجل = 14.9 مليار دولار، من:
الإمارات = 5 مليار
السعودية = 5
قطر = 4
ليبيا = 0.9
الاحتياطي = 35 مليار دولار
لماذا لم تستطع دول الخليج تنويع اقتصادها بشكل كاف؟
إحدى المشاكل: استهداف كل الدول لنفس القطاعات
مثال: استراتيجية التنمية الوطنية لقطر، المنشورة هذه السنة، والتي تستهدف قطاعات:
الكيماويات
والنقل
والسياحة
والذكاء الاصطناعي
والخدمات المالية
1/3
Egypt is receiving a mega bailout from the UAE:
- $35 bn for Ras El-Hekma & other projects
- Of which: $24 bn in fresh cash + $11 bn existing deposit
- All will arrive within 2 months
- Abu Dhabi fund expects over $150 bn in investments
هل برامج صندوق النقد الدولي ناجحة؟
في بعض الحالات: لا
السبب: بعض هذه البرامج تخلق إدمان على الدَّين في الدول المقترضة، وحاجة مستمرة للإقراض من قبل الصندوق
لندرس برامج الصندوق مع باكستان ومصر والأرجنتين، 3 من أكبر المقترضين في العالم
1/5
Russia demands ruble payments for natural gas purchases from “unfriendly” nations, doesn't want euros or dollars
European gas prices surged more than 30% after the news
Oil is above $120
One drastic option on the table: Saudi officials have said privately that the kingdom could sell the U.S. Treasury bonds it holds if Congress were to pass anti-OPEC legislation, according to people familiar with the matter.
Egypt: Another month, another record inflation number
Consumer prices rose 37.4% in Aug compared with a year earlier
Highest in data going back to 2010 -- higher than even the levels reached after the 2016 currency crisis
Food costs were up 71.4%
Egypt: IMF deal is an exchange of money for conditions
Money = $10 bn
Conditions:
1. Raise interest rates✅
2. Reduce govt spending✅
3. Currency floatation? Not clear if that's a demand now
4. Selling state assets? GCC not part of the rescue
Dubai: Govt debt has fallen
• to 25% of GDP
• from 78% of GDP in 2020 (S&P estimate)
How?
• Govt repaid bank and market debt
• Repaid loans from Abu Dhabi & UAE central bank
• A booming economy helps
My latest: What oil price does Saudi need to balance its budget?
Our estimate: $108 per barrel, if we include domestic investments by the sovereign wealth fund
Actual crude price today is lower than that, at $77 per barrel
Full analysis on
@TheTerminal
for subscribers
The richest 1% in the Middle East and North Africa own 45% of total wealth, according to Thomas Piketty's lab. The region is one of the most unequal in the world.
Egypt doesn't want to devalue the pound before the presidential election
But it can't financially afford to maintain the status quo until next year
So it has opted to hold the vote earlier in December
Hot money is ready to pour into Egypt:
- Hot money: borrows where interest rates are low, to invest where they're high
- Egypt was hot-money darling in 2017-21 (blue in chart)
- It's re-opening the path now by: raising rates, removing currency controls
Egypt: Net foreign assets of the banking system have never been so negative
• Dec-2021: assets exceeded liabilities by $2b
• Jun-2023: assets below liabilities by $27b
What does this mean?
Banks have been selling dollars
And buying Egyptian pounds
Over the past 1.5 years
It’s hard to overstate the role Russia and Ukraine play in the global food trade. They account for:
• more than a quarter of global wheat trade
• nearly a fifth of corn
• a whopping 12% of all calories traded globally
Egypt: The World Bank will provide Egypt with $6 bn
Schedule: Over 3 years
Form: $3 bn govt support + $3 bn for private sector
Funding to Egypt so far:
- UAE: $35 bn
- IMF: $8 bn
- EU: $8 bn
- World Bank: $6 bn
Total = $57 bn
5 things that happened this week (Egypt special):
Egypt has the worst-performing currency in emerging markets
The pound has lost nearly half of its value against the dollar over the past 12 months
1/5
Lebanon: The size of the economy collapsed to $19 billion last year from $55 billion in 2018. GDP is at its lowest level since 2002 -- a setback of 18 years. It'll likely shrink further in 2021.
Egypt: The EU will provide an $8 bn aid package
Form: Concessional loans, investments, grants
Disbursement: Through 2027
Funding to Egypt so far:
- UAE: $35 bn
- IMF: $8 bn
- EU: $8 bn
Total = $51 bn
Egypt to get $0.4 bn in budget support from the UK
Size of international bailout so far = $57.4 bn
Sources:
• UAE: $35 bn
• IMF: $8 bn
• EU: $8 bn
• World Bank: $6 bn
• UK: $0.4 bn
ثالثا: هيمنة الجيش على الاقتصاد
- توسع الجيش في دخول قطاعات عديدة، راجع مثلا كتاب
@SayighYezid
على الرابط
- هذا التوسع طارد للاستثمارات الأجنبية، لعدم قدرتها على المنافسة
- وغير محفز للتصدير، لأن السيطرة على السوق المحلي كاف للهيئات العسكرية
4/6
Hot money is piling into Egypt
Demand for lending the govt has surged in March (image)
Why?
- High interest rate
- Expected pound weakness unlikely to wipe out interest-rate gains
- Default unlikely after receiving significant financial backing
Iran and the US are close to an understanding
Iran to:
- release US prisoners
- eventually limit nuclear programme
US to:
- allow frozen payments owed to Iran
Negotiations through:
- intermediaries in Oman
- on the sidelines of UN meetings
GCC and metals:
- UAE bought a copper mine in Zambia
- Saudi wants to increase mining contribution to economy
- Oman to use iron ore from Cameroon for world's largest green steel plan
- Qatar is Glencore's 2nd biggest shareholder
Which countries are most vulnerable to a debt crisis?
We ranked 60 countries by:
- Public debt
- Interest costs
- Yield on dollar bonds
4 Middle Eastern countries are among the most exposed:
Egypt (2nd)
Tunisia (4th)
Bahrain (11th)
Jordan (13th)
With
@sjinlondon
,
@YvonneMhango
Egypt signed a currency swap deal with the UAE
This means Egypt can borrow up to $1.4 bn from the UAE to boost reserves or support the pound
Egypt's $35 bn of international reserves are already mostly borrowed money
5 things that happened this week (Egypt special):
Not a good time for the currency
The dollar is trading at near 60 pounds in the black market
The official rate is still 30.9 -- having weakened by 50% since 2022
1/5
ثانيا: بناء مدن وبنية تحتية غير مربحة
- تؤدي إلى إضاعة الموارد دون عائد اقتصادي مجدي
- وزيادة الواردات في بلد يعاني أصلا من عجز تجاري مزمن
- تجربة مصر مع بناء المدن الجديدة غير مثمرة، الأمثلة: العاصمة الإدارية اليوم وتوشكى في التسعينات
السؤال: هل ستختلف تجربة رأس الحكمة؟
3/6
The UAE and Egypt:
“In a series of deals since 2022, [Abu Dhabi wealth fund] ADQ became the biggest shareholder in 2 of Egypt’s top listed companies — Commercial International Bank and Eastern Tobacco Company, the country’s main cigarette-maker”
1/3
Stick with the dollar, and you might face sanctions if you become a political adversary to the US
Move away from the dollar, and Trump might hit you with penalties
Egypt: Worker remittances have dropped significantly since mid-2022
Possible cause: expectations of further depreciation in the pound
Why transfer dollars now when you can get a better value in the future?
5 things that happened this week:
Egypt pound has been appreciating steadily since 6 March
On that day, authorities announced they'd allow "the exchange rate to be determined by market forces"
But the currency movement is too smooth for the free floatation to be true
1/5
ما هي أكثر الدول عرضة لأزمة دَين؟
رتبنا 60 دولة حسب:
• حجم الدين
• الإنفاق على خدمة الدين
• وسعر الفائدة
4 دول عربية ضمن الأكثر خطورة:
• مصر (المركز 2)
• تونس (المركز 4)
• البحرين (المركز 11)
• الأردن (المركز 13)
مع
@sjinlondon
و
@YvonneMhango
Egypt: Inflation rose in Feb
- Increased to 36% from 30% in Jan
- Food prices were up ~50% compared with a year earlier
- The rise happened even before the ~40% weakening in the official exchange rate on 6 March
Egypt has 3 economic problems:
1. Debt
2. Freefalling currency
3. Inflation
Authorities see one lifeline: a $10 billion loan from IMF
IMF: Deal is "close", and talks are a “top priority” because of Egypt’s importance to the wider region
Egypt is getting a $57 billion bailout
But it has bills to pay:
- Clear an import backlog
- Settle arears with international companies
- Ease capital restrictions
- And now, pay for gas as it turns from an energy exporter to importer
Egypt: What to expect after the mega UAE bailout?
1. A floatation of the currency: the official rate will converge to the black market rate, now close to 50 pounds per dollar
2. A deal with the IMF that would unlock more funds
3. Higher interest rates
Russian oil is making huge inroads into India, it’s now possibly the largest supplier ahead of Iraq and Saudi:
Russian fuel is also making its way to Saudi via Egypt:
.. and via Estonia:
3/5
Qatar sovereign wealth fund manages about $500 billion of assets
How does it invest them?
By geography:
- ~30% in Qatar
- 70% abroad
By asset class: Mostly stocks, real estate, infrastructure
Chart source: IMF
Egypt trouble in one chart:
Orange bars: Persistent deficit in the current account (~= exports - imports + remittances)
Blue: Hot money funded the deficit in 2017-21, but fled in 2022 when global interest rates rose
White: Direct investments were too small to fill the gap
Egypt: "One concern among investors is that the authorities will reverse course on the latest devaluation at the earliest opportunity — as they did in 2016 and again in 2022"
5 things that happened this week (Egypt special):
Big policy moves on 6 March:
- Lifting interest rates by 6 percentage points
- Floating the currency, leading to a 38% decline on the day (chart)
- Agreeing on a loan with the IMF
1/5
5 things that happened this week:
Egypt received more financial support
- The EU will provide an $8 bn aid package
- The World Bank will give another $6 bn
- Adding $35 bn from the UAE, and $8 bn from the IMF, the total reaches $57 bn
1/5
Egypt: UAE money is working its way through the economy
- Dollar in the black market is around 43 pounds
- Down from about 65 before the bailout announcement
- Markets expect the exchange rate at 41 in 3 months, down from over 50 a few weeks ago (orange)
5 things that happened this week:
In Egypt, the UK will provide $0.4 bn in budget support
Size of international bailout so far = $57.4 bn
Sources:
• UAE: $35 bn
• IMF: $8 bn
• EU: $8 bn
• World Bank: $6 bn
• UK: $0.4 bn
1/5
Egypt: What to expect after the mega UAE bailout?
1. A floatation of the currency: the official rate will converge to the black market rate, now close to 50 pounds per dollar
2. A deal with the IMF that would unlock more funds
3. Higher interest rates
Egypt: IMF will release $820 million immediately
What it wants:
- Replace "untargeted fuel subsidies with targeted social spending"
- "Withdrawing the state and military from economic activity"
- A "shift to a liberalized foreign exchange system"
كيف غيرت حرب غزة علاقة مصر بصندوق النقد الدولي؟
تعاني مصر من 3 مشاكل:
1. الديون
2. تهاوي الجنيه (الصورة)
3. تضخم الأسعار
الحل من وجهة نظر السلطات: قرض من صندوق النقد
الصندوق يقول: الاتفاق "وشيك"، والمحادثات "أولوية قصوى" بسبب ما يحدث في المنطقة
1/4
From Ras El-Hekma to Ras Gamila:
- Egypt & Saudi are in talks over development rights of a Red Sea area, called Ras Gamila
- Talks in early stages & could fall through
- Site is smaller than Ras El-Hekma, but deal may still amount to billions of dollars
صورة تلخص أزمة مصر الاقتصادية:
البرتقالي: عجز مزمن في الحساب الجاري (تقريبا = الصادرات - الواردات + التحويلات)
الأزرق: تمويل الأموال الساخنة للعجز من 2017 حتى 2021، وهروبها بعد 2022 لصعود نسب الفائدة في باقي العالم
الأبيض: الاستثمارات الأجنبية المباشرة أصغر من أن تسد الفجوة
رابعا: تثبيت الجنيه
- مصر ثبتت تقريبا سعر الصرف بعد 2017 (الصورة)
- برغم: أزمات الدول الناشئة وكوفيد وصعود الفائدة
- بالتالي ينتهي بها الأمر إلى إجراء تعديلات كبيرة ومفاجئة لسعر الصرف، بدل من تغييرات تدريجية عبر السنين
السؤال: هل ما يجري اليوم تحرير أم تحريك لسعر الصرف؟
5/6
Some good news for Egypt:
• Citi don't expect a devaluation until at least Sept
• Markets see the dollar at 33 pounds in 3 months (vs 30.9 now)
• That's down from a peak of 37.3 in late April
Egypt is pursuing the Lebanese solution
State banks are offering high-interest dollar certificates of deposit
A 3-year deposit, to offer 7% annual yield, with interest paid out in dollars
Would you:
(a) take this offer
(b) or 4%-5% from a bank outside?
Qatar soft-power tools:
• Gas
• Investments
• Al Jazeera
• Promiscuous diplomacy
• And..
Wealth: "Qataris own $824 billion of assets overseas, equivalent to an average of about $2 million for every citizen"
Red Sea trade disruption continues
Traffic in the Suez Canal has more than halved
The cost to Egypt is $1.2 billion in lost revenue as of late March
4/5
Saudi will curb football spending this summer:
- Clubs spent $875 mn in transfer fees last summer
- But only made $16 mn from selling players
- Average attendance = 8,000 per game
- Down 10% from previous season
Egypt: Ras Al-Hekma could be real
- Abu Dhabi is in advanced talks to buy land in Egypt's North Coast
- Initial estimate: $22 bn
- Not clear if payment is in single or multiple installments
- Vast area = 180mn sqm
- Typical price in area = $100-$120 /sqm
مصر تكرر نفس تجربة باكستان:
رفع صندوق النقد الدولي قيمة قرضه لمصر من 3 إلى 8 مليارات دولار
لكن مصر بحاجة إلى سداد حوالي 10 مليارات دولار للصندوق في العامين المقبلين
مرة أخرى: قروض جديدة لتسديد قروض وفوائد قديمة
3/5
Egypt: The IMF wants
• Flexible currency
• Sale of state assets
Egypt would get:
• $700 million in postponed loan tranches
• $1.3 billion resilience fund
• Potentially more GCC money
Will Egypt deliver on the conditions before elections in Dec?
أولا: الاعتماد على الأموال الساخنة
- هذه الأموال هي قروض قصيرة الأمد، من 3 إلى 6 أشهر
- تنجذب للبلاد التي تمنح فائدة مرتفعة
- ساخنة لأنها تنسحب بسرعة عند أي اضطراب، مثل 2018 و2020
- صعود الفائدة العالمية في 2022 (الصورة) أدى إلى خروجها وانكشاف مصر
2/6
في مصر: أدى رفع نسبة الفائدة الأمريكية إلى هروب الأموال الساخنة منذ 2022 (لاحظ المنحنى الأزرق في الصورة)
لماذا؟ لأن الأموال تركت مصر واتجهت إلى أمريكا للحصول على عائد مرتفع، بمخاطر أقل
كان هذا أهم سبب لتهاوي قيمة الجنيه المصري منذ مارس 2022
3/6
Will Egypt default on debt in 2024?
Goldman & Pictet say: 'No'
I agree with that
"Egypt faces about $3.3 billion of dollar bond payments this year, with the first due in March"
Who can set oil prices in the coming months?
• Not Russia: needs to meet surging domestic demand
• Not US shale: no intention to markedly boost output
• Not OPEC+: most members have no spare capacity
=> Leaves Saudi as the main price-setter
Egypt: A devaluation is a matter of when, not if. Key items to watch for clues on timing:
1. Gap between black market & official exchange rates
2. IMF deal
3. Higher interest rates
4. Asset sale, like Ras El-Hekma land
5. Ramadan starting around 10 Mar
ما أهم قرار اقتصادي بحت تم اتخاذه في آخر سنتين؟
في رأيي: رفع البنك المركزي الأمريكي لسعر الفائدة (الصورة)
تأثير هذا القرار لم يقف عند الولايات المتحدة، بل وصل للمنطقة
لنرى وقعه على: مصر، والنفط، والخليج
1/6
Egypt president Sisi: “I realize the extent of suffering .. and I appreciate Egyptians’ resilience even more. Don’t we eat? We eat. Won’t we drink? We drink, and everything is functioning. Things are expensive and some things are not available. So what?”
Egypt: Govt is struggling to borrow at reasonable interest rates
• It wanted to borrow 3 billion pounds
• But only managed to get 1 million (not billion) at 21.7% interest
• Investors demanded yields as high as 28%
Saudi Arabia is planning to borrow $58 billion this year and tap reserves for an additional $32 billion. Suggests a deficit of $90 billion, possibly more.
It "has already borrowed a total of $19 billion from local and international investors" this year.
رئيس الأرجنتين المنتخب خافيير ميلي يريد استبدال العملة المحلية بالدولار
فهل ستحل الدولرة مشاكل البلد الاقتصادية؟ غالبا لا، لأن عيوب السياسة أكبر من ميزاتها
لكن التجربة ستكون دالة لبعض دول منطقتنا، التي تعاني من بعض مشاكل الأرجنتين، مثل لبنان ومصر
1/6