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Ziad Daoud Profile
Ziad Daoud

@ZiadMDaoud

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Chief Emerging Markets Economist at Bloomberg. Tweet mostly about economics and the Middle East. PhD @LSEEcon . Views are mine. الأحد بالعربي

Joined December 2011
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
3 years
She’s more independent than the central bank
@Reuters
Reuters
3 years
A girl cut a ceremony ribbon before Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan during the opening ceremony of a public park in Ankara
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
7 months
"A senior Egyptian official told a European counterpart: “You want us to take 1mn people? Well, I am going to send them to Europe. You care about human rights so much — well you take them.”"
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 months
صورة تلخص أسباب أزمة مصر: - البرتقالي: عجز مزمن في الحساب الجاري (تقريبا = الصادرات - الواردات + التحويلات) - الأزرق: تمويل الأموال الساخنة للعجز من 2017 حتى 2021، وهروبها بعد 2022 - الأبيض: الاستثمارات الأجنبية المباشرة أقل من أن تسد الفجوة الدرس من الأزمة؟ تجنب 4 أمور 1/6
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
28 days
Saudi is scaling back 'The Line' project in Neom • 2030 population target: from 1.5 million to 300k • Length: from 170 km to 2.4 km by 2030 • At least one contractor is dismissing some workers on the site
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
3 months
Egypt: The currency is in free-fall Black market rate: 1 dollar = 70 pounds Official rate: 1 dollar = 30.9 pounds The pounds has weakened by nearly 24% in the market in 2024
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 years
هل ستخفض مصر قيمة الجنيه؟ هناك فجوة تمويلية تحتاج مصر إلى 41 مليار دولار حتى نهاية 2023 لسد: - عجز الحساب الجاري (تقريبا = الصادرات - الواردات + التحويلات) - والديون المستحقة بينما لا يغطي الاحتياطي الأجنبي (33 مليار دولار، الصورة) لوحده هذه الفاتورة 1/6
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
11 days
The UAE & Qatar could make every citizen a millionaire overnight How? By selling their assets abroad & distributing the proceeds equally But Abu Dhabi, Doha & their neighbours in the GCC aren’t following a sell-and-distribute strategy So how are they using their wealth? 1/7
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
4 years
The Iraqi government is not pleased with the assassinations. The PM says US strikes violated Iraq's sovereignty.
@AdilAbdAlMahdi
عادل عبدالمهدي
4 years
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 months
الخلاصة، مصر دخلت في أزمة لأنها: - اقترضت أموال ساخنة - لبناء مدن وجسور غير منتجة اقتصاديا - لم تستطع رفع الصادرات، أو الاعتماد على تمويل طويل الأجل، بسبب تغول الجيش في الاقتصاد - غطت على نقاط الضعف بتثبيت سعر الصرف، إلى أن اشتدت عليها الضائقة 6/6
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 years
Why Egypt may need to devalue the pound The country has a funding problem It’ll need $41b by end-2023 to pay for: - the current account deficit - maturing debt International reserves ($33b, chart) can only partially cover these before completely running out 1/5
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 years
2021 hasn't been a good year for emerging markets -- most currencies have weakened against the dollar. But the Turkish lira still stands out with its 51% depreciation.
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 months
On 6 March, Egypt said: - It was floating the currency - By "allowing the exchange rate to be determined by market forces" The horizontal movement of the pound since then suggests a "re-pegging" not a "floatation"
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
22 days
Iran designed its retaliation on Israel to cause: 1. Max symbolism: - 300 missiles & drones - 1st ever direct attack - Sirens sounding alarm in Israel 2. Min damage: - Attack well-telegraphed - Reported days in advance - No deaths, no major damages
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 years
Emerging markets are facing rising debt, slowing growth & soaring yields Russia & Sri Lanka both defaulted -- for different reasons -- who's next? We rank 50 countries to find El Salvador, Ghana, Egypt, Tunisia & Pakistan to be the most vulnerable Full analysis on @TheTerminal
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 months
Egypt paradox: Why did the economic crisis happen? Partly because Egypt borrowed from abroad to build a new capital city that has limited economic return How is Egypt getting out of crisis? By taking money from abroad to build even more cities
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
3 months
ما العامل المشترك بين اقتصادات العراق ودول الخليج ومصر والأردن؟ الجواب: اعتماد الجميع على الريع خبر بيع مصر لأراضي في ساحلها الشمالي يؤكد هذا انتشار النموذج لنستعرض بعض تجليات الريع في العالم العربي 1/6
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
1 year
البرنامج الأكثر شعبية في العراق @Albasheershow يعرض قضية رفع قيمة الدينار مع إشارة من @ahmedalbasheer1 إلى رأيي في أن تغيير سعر الصرف سيزيد من اعتماد العراق على النفط الكلام في هذا الموضوع حوالي الدقيقة 44:10 في الرابط
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
8 months
احتياطي النقد الأجنبي لمصر معظمه قروض ودائع طويلة الأجل = 15 مليار دولار، من: الإمارات = 5.7 مليار السعودية = 5.3 الكويت = 4 ودائع قصيرة الأجل = 14.9 مليار دولار، من: الإمارات = 5 مليار السعودية = 5 قطر = 4 ليبيا = 0.9 الاحتياطي = 35 مليار دولار
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
1 month
لماذا لم تستطع دول الخليج تنويع اقتصادها بشكل كاف؟ إحدى المشاكل: استهداف كل الدول لنفس القطاعات مثال: ​استراتيجية التنمية الوطنية لقطر، المنشورة هذه السنة، والتي تستهدف قطاعات: الكيماويات والنقل والسياحة والذكاء الاصطناعي والخدمات المالية 1/3
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 months
Egypt is receiving a mega bailout from the UAE: - $35 bn for Ras El-Hekma & other projects - Of which: $24 bn in fresh cash + $11 bn existing deposit - All will arrive within 2 months - Abu Dhabi fund expects over $150 bn in investments
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
15 days
هل برامج صندوق النقد الدولي ناجحة؟ في بعض الحالات: لا السبب: بعض هذه البرامج تخلق إدمان على الدَّين في الدول المقترضة، وحاجة مستمرة للإقراض من قبل الصندوق لندرس برامج الصندوق مع باكستان ومصر والأرجنتين، 3 من أكبر المقترضين في العالم 1/5
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 years
Russia demands ruble payments for natural gas purchases from “unfriendly” nations, doesn't want euros or dollars European gas prices surged more than 30% after the news Oil is above $120
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 years
Sell US Treasury bonds and buy what instead? Saudi needs to hold liquid dollar assets to back up its currency peg
@summer_said
Summer Said
2 years
One dras­tic op­tion on the ta­ble: Saudi of­fi­cials have said pri­vately that the king­dom could sell the U.S. Trea­sury bonds it holds if Con­gress were to pass anti-OPEC leg­is­la­tion, ac­cord­ing to peo­ple fa­mil­iar with the mat­ter.
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
1 year
Something big is happening in Doha? 🤔 ⚽️⚽️⚽️
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 months
Egypt: - The pound has weakened 38% so far today - Dollar is almost 50 pounds - Could seal an IMF deal in the next few hours
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
8 months
Egypt: Another month, another record inflation number Consumer prices rose 37.4% in Aug compared with a year earlier Highest in data going back to 2010 -- higher than even the levels reached after the 2016 currency crisis Food costs were up 71.4%
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 months
Egypt says it's floating the currency It'll allow "the exchange rate to be determined by market forces"
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
3 months
Egypt: IMF deal is an exchange of money for conditions Money = $10 bn Conditions: 1. Raise interest rates✅ 2. Reduce govt spending✅ 3. Currency floatation? Not clear if that's a demand now 4. Selling state assets? GCC not part of the rescue
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
7 months
Dubai: Govt debt has fallen • to 25% of GDP • from 78% of GDP in 2020 (S&P estimate) How? • Govt repaid bank and market debt • Repaid loans from Abu Dhabi & UAE central bank • A booming economy helps
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
5 months
My latest: What oil price does Saudi need to balance its budget? Our estimate: $108 per barrel, if we include domestic investments by the sovereign wealth fund Actual crude price today is lower than that, at $77 per barrel Full analysis on @TheTerminal for subscribers
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 years
The richest 1% in the Middle East and North Africa own 45% of total wealth, according to Thomas Piketty's lab. The region is one of the most unequal in the world.
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
7 months
Egypt doesn't want to devalue the pound before the presidential election But it can't financially afford to maintain the status quo until next year So it has opted to hold the vote earlier in December
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 months
Hot money is ready to pour into Egypt: - Hot money: borrows where interest rates are low, to invest where they're high - Egypt was hot-money darling in 2017-21 (blue in chart) - It's re-opening the path now by: raising rates, removing currency controls
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
9 months
Egypt: Net foreign assets of the banking system have never been so negative • Dec-2021: assets exceeded liabilities by $2b • Jun-2023: assets below liabilities by $27b What does this mean? Banks have been selling dollars And buying Egyptian pounds Over the past 1.5 years
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 years
It’s hard to overstate the role Russia and Ukraine play in the global food trade. They account for: • more than a quarter of global wheat trade • nearly a fifth of corn • a whopping 12% of all calories traded globally
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 months
Egypt: The World Bank will provide Egypt with $6 bn Schedule: Over 3 years Form: $3 bn govt support + $3 bn for private sector Funding to Egypt so far: - UAE: $35 bn - IMF: $8 bn - EU: $8 bn - World Bank: $6 bn Total = $57 bn
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 months
Egypt pound: - Lost 68% of its value against the dollar, in two years - The second-worst performer in major emerging markets - The worst is Argentina
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
1 year
5 things that happened this week (Egypt special): Egypt has the worst-performing currency in emerging markets The pound has lost nearly half of its value against the dollar over the past 12 months 1/5
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
3 years
Lebanon: The size of the economy collapsed to $19 billion last year from $55 billion in 2018. GDP is at its lowest level since 2002 -- a setback of 18 years. It'll likely shrink further in 2021.
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 months
Egypt: The EU will provide an $8 bn aid package Form: Concessional loans, investments, grants Disbursement: Through 2027 Funding to Egypt so far: - UAE: $35 bn - IMF: $8 bn - EU: $8 bn Total = $51 bn
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
13 days
Egypt to get $0.4 bn in budget support from the UK Size of international bailout so far = $57.4 bn Sources: • UAE: $35 bn • IMF: $8 bn • EU: $8 bn • World Bank: $6 bn • UK: $0.4 bn
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 months
ثالثا: هيمنة الجيش على الاقتصاد - توسع الجيش في دخول قطاعات عديدة، راجع مثلا كتاب @SayighYezid على الرابط - هذا التوسع طارد للاستثمارات الأجنبية، لعدم قدرتها على المنافسة - وغير محفز للتصدير، لأن السيطرة على السوق المحلي كاف للهيئات العسكرية 4/6
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
1 month
Hot money is piling into Egypt Demand for lending the govt has surged in March (image) Why? - High interest rate - Expected pound weakness unlikely to wipe out interest-rate gains - Default unlikely after receiving significant financial backing
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
6 years
The lira is in a meltdown. Every word from Erdogan is making things worse.
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
11 months
Iran and the US are close to an understanding Iran to: - release US prisoners - eventually limit nuclear programme US to: - allow frozen payments owed to Iran Negotiations through: - intermediaries in Oman - on the sidelines of UN meetings
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
1 month
GCC and metals: - UAE bought a copper mine in Zambia - Saudi wants to increase mining contribution to economy - Oman to use iron ore from Cameroon for world's largest green steel plan - Qatar is Glencore's 2nd biggest shareholder
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
8 months
Which countries are most vulnerable to a debt crisis? We ranked 60 countries by: - Public debt - Interest costs - Yield on dollar bonds 4 Middle Eastern countries are among the most exposed: Egypt (2nd) Tunisia (4th) Bahrain (11th) Jordan (13th) With @sjinlondon , @YvonneMhango
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
7 months
Egypt signed a currency swap deal with the UAE This means Egypt can borrow up to $1.4 bn from the UAE to boost reserves or support the pound Egypt's $35 bn of international reserves are already mostly borrowed money
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
4 months
5 things that happened this week (Egypt special): Not a good time for the currency The dollar is trading at near 60 pounds in the black market The official rate is still 30.9 -- having weakened by 50% since 2022 1/5
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 months
ثانيا: بناء مدن وبنية تحتية غير مربحة - تؤدي إلى إضاعة الموارد دون عائد اقتصادي مجدي - وزيادة الواردات في بلد يعاني أصلا من عجز تجاري مزمن - تجربة مصر مع بناء المدن الجديدة غير مثمرة، الأمثلة: العاصمة الإدارية اليوم وتوشكى في التسعينات السؤال: هل ستختلف تجربة رأس الحكمة؟ 3/6
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 months
The UAE and Egypt: “In a series of deals since 2022, [Abu Dhabi wealth fund] ADQ became the biggest shareholder in 2 of Egypt’s top listed companies — Commercial International Bank and Eastern Tobacco Company, the country’s main cigarette-maker” 1/3
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
9 months
Egypt: Worker remittances have dropped significantly since mid-2022 Possible cause: expectations of further depreciation in the pound Why transfer dollars now when you can get a better value in the future?
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 months
5 things that happened this week: Egypt pound has been appreciating steadily since 6 March On that day, authorities announced they'd allow "the exchange rate to be determined by market forces" But the currency movement is too smooth for the free floatation to be true 1/5
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
8 months
ما هي أكثر الدول عرضة لأزمة دَين؟ رتبنا 60 دولة حسب: • حجم الدين • الإنفاق على خدمة الدين • وسعر الفائدة 4 دول عربية ضمن الأكثر خطورة: • مصر (المركز 2) • تونس (المركز 4) • البحرين (المركز 11) • الأردن (المركز 13) مع @sjinlondon و @YvonneMhango
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 months
Egypt: Inflation rose in Feb - Increased to 36% from 30% in Jan - Food prices were up ~50% compared with a year earlier - The rise happened even before the ~40% weakening in the official exchange rate on 6 March
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
3 months
Egypt has 3 economic problems: 1. Debt 2. Freefalling currency 3. Inflation Authorities see one lifeline: a $10 billion loan from IMF IMF: Deal is "close", and talks are a “top priority” because of Egypt’s importance to the wider region
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
27 days
Egypt is getting a $57 billion bailout But it has bills to pay: - Clear an import backlog - Settle arears with international companies - Ease capital restrictions - And now, pay for gas as it turns from an energy exporter to importer
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 months
Egypt: What has happened so far today versus what was expected? 1. Currency float ✅ 2. IMF deal ❓ 3. Higher interest rates ✅
@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 months
Egypt: What to expect after the mega UAE bailout? 1. A floatation of the currency: the official rate will converge to the black market rate, now close to 50 pounds per dollar 2. A deal with the IMF that would unlock more funds 3. Higher interest rates
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
21 days
Oil response to Iran 'max symbolism, min damage' strikes on Israel? No reaction Price is still hovering around $90, just like last week
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 years
Russian oil is making huge inroads into India, it’s now possibly the largest supplier ahead of Iraq and Saudi: Russian fuel is also making its way to Saudi via Egypt: .. and via Estonia: 3/5
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 months
Qatar sovereign wealth fund manages about $500 billion of assets How does it invest them? By geography: - ~30% in Qatar - 70% abroad By asset class: Mostly stocks, real estate, infrastructure Chart source: IMF
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
10 months
Egypt trouble in one chart: Orange bars: Persistent deficit in the current account (~= exports - imports + remittances) Blue: Hot money funded the deficit in 2017-21, but fled in 2022 when global interest rates rose White: Direct investments were too small to fill the gap
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 months
Egypt: "One concern among investors is that the authorities will reverse course on the latest devaluation at the earliest opportunity — as they did in 2016 and again in 2022"
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 months
5 things that happened this week (Egypt special): Big policy moves on 6 March: - Lifting interest rates by 6 percentage points - Floating the currency, leading to a 38% decline on the day (chart) - Agreeing on a loan with the IMF 1/5
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
1 month
5 things that happened this week: Egypt received more financial support - The EU will provide an $8 bn aid package - The World Bank will give another $6 bn - Adding $35 bn from the UAE, and $8 bn from the IMF, the total reaches $57 bn 1/5
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 months
Egypt: UAE money is working its way through the economy - Dollar in the black market is around 43 pounds - Down from about 65 before the bailout announcement - Markets expect the exchange rate at 41 in 3 months, down from over 50 a few weeks ago (orange)
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
9 months
Arab support to Egypt, as of Dec-2022 Long-term deposits = $15b, from: - UAE = $5.7b - Saudi = $5.3b - Kuwait = $4b Short-term deposits = $14.9b, from: - UAE = $5b - Saudi = $5b - Qatar = $4b (from $3b in Mar) - Libya = $0.9b (from 0 in Mar)
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
9 days
5 things that happened this week: In Egypt, the UK will provide $0.4 bn in budget support Size of international bailout so far = $57.4 bn Sources: • UAE: $35 bn • IMF: $8 bn • EU: $8 bn • World Bank: $6 bn • UK: $0.4 bn 1/5
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 months
Recapping an eventful day in Egypt: First, the central bank raised interest rates by 6 percentage points 1/3
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 months
Egypt: What happened today versus what was expected? (UPDATE) 1. Currency float ✅ 2. IMF deal ✅ 3. Higher interest rates ✅
@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 months
Egypt: What to expect after the mega UAE bailout? 1. A floatation of the currency: the official rate will converge to the black market rate, now close to 50 pounds per dollar 2. A deal with the IMF that would unlock more funds 3. Higher interest rates
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
1 month
Egypt: IMF will release $820 million immediately What it wants: - Replace "untargeted fuel subsidies with targeted social spending" - "Withdrawing the state and military from economic activity" - A "shift to a liberalized foreign exchange system"
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
3 months
كيف غيرت حرب غزة علاقة مصر بصندوق النقد الدولي؟ تعاني مصر من 3 مشاكل: 1. الديون 2. تهاوي الجنيه (الصورة) 3. تضخم الأسعار الحل من وجهة نظر السلطات: قرض من صندوق النقد الصندوق يقول: الاتفاق "وشيك"، والمحادثات "أولوية قصوى" بسبب ما يحدث في المنطقة 1/4
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 months
Egypt vs Turkey Textile manufacturers weigh a shift from Turkey to Egypt, due to the latter’s weaker currency 2013: $1 = 6 Egyptian pounds = 2 Turkish lira Feb-2024: $1 = 31 pounds = 31 lira Today: $1 = 49 pounds = 32 lira (White = pound; Blue = lira)
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 months
From Ras El-Hekma to Ras Gamila: - Egypt & Saudi are in talks over development rights of a Red Sea area, called Ras Gamila - Talks in early stages & could fall through - Site is smaller than Ras El-Hekma, but deal may still amount to billions of dollars
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
9 months
صورة تلخص أزمة مصر الاقتصادية: البرتقالي: عجز مزمن في الحساب الجاري (تقريبا = الصادرات - الواردات + التحويلات) الأزرق: تمويل الأموال الساخنة للعجز من 2017 حتى 2021، وهروبها بعد 2022 لصعود نسب الفائدة في باقي العالم الأبيض: الاستثمارات الأجنبية المباشرة أصغر من أن تسد الفجوة
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 months
رابعا: تثبيت الجنيه - مصر ثبتت تقريبا سعر الصرف بعد 2017 (الصورة) - برغم: أزمات الدول الناشئة وكوفيد وصعود الفائدة - بالتالي ينتهي بها الأمر إلى إجراء تعديلات كبيرة ومفاجئة لسعر الصرف، بدل من تغييرات تدريجية عبر السنين السؤال: هل ما يجري اليوم تحرير أم تحريك لسعر الصرف؟ 5/6
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
11 months
Some good news for Egypt: • Citi don't expect a devaluation until at least Sept • Markets see the dollar at 33 pounds in 3 months (vs 30.9 now) • That's down from a peak of 37.3 in late April
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
10 months
Egypt is pursuing the Lebanese solution State banks are offering high-interest dollar certificates of deposit A 3-year deposit, to offer 7% annual yield, with interest paid out in dollars Would you: (a) take this offer (b) or 4%-5% from a bank outside?
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
6 months
Qatar soft-power tools: • Gas • Investments • Al Jazeera • Promiscuous diplomacy • And.. Wealth: "Qataris own $824 billion of assets overseas, equivalent to an average of about $2 million for every citizen"
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
30 days
Red Sea trade disruption continues Traffic in the Suez Canal has more than halved The cost to Egypt is $1.2 billion in lost revenue as of late March 4/5
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 months
Saudi will curb football spending this summer: - Clubs spent $875 mn in transfer fees last summer - But only made $16 mn from selling players - Average attendance = 8,000 per game - Down 10% from previous season
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
3 months
Egypt: Ras Al-Hekma could be real - Abu Dhabi is in advanced talks to buy land in Egypt's North Coast - Initial estimate: $22 bn - Not clear if payment is in single or multiple installments - Vast area = 180mn sqm - Typical price in area = $100-$120 /sqm
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
15 days
مصر تكرر نفس تجربة باكستان: رفع صندوق النقد الدولي قيمة قرضه لمصر من 3 إلى 8 مليارات دولار لكن مصر بحاجة إلى سداد حوالي 10 مليارات دولار للصندوق في العامين المقبلين مرة أخرى: قروض جديدة لتسديد قروض وفوائد قديمة 3/5
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
7 months
Egypt: The IMF wants • Flexible currency • Sale of state assets Egypt would get: • $700 million in postponed loan tranches • $1.3 billion resilience fund • Potentially more GCC money Will Egypt deliver on the conditions before elections in Dec?
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 months
أولا: الاعتماد على الأموال الساخنة - هذه الأموال هي قروض قصيرة الأمد، من 3 إلى 6 أشهر - تنجذب للبلاد التي تمنح فائدة مرتفعة - ساخنة لأنها تنسحب بسرعة عند أي اضطراب، مثل 2018 و2020 - صعود الفائدة العالمية في 2022 (الصورة) أدى إلى خروجها وانكشاف مصر 2/6
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
5 months
في مصر: أدى رفع نسبة الفائدة الأمريكية إلى هروب الأموال الساخنة منذ 2022 (لاحظ المنحنى الأزرق في الصورة) لماذا؟ لأن الأموال تركت مصر واتجهت إلى أمريكا للحصول على عائد مرتفع، بمخاطر أقل كان هذا أهم سبب لتهاوي قيمة الجنيه المصري منذ مارس 2022 3/6
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
5 days
Biggest recipients of GCC support between 2011 & 2022: - Egypt: $48 bn - Pakistan: $11 bn - Jordan: $8 bn - Bahrain: $6 bn - Yemen: $6 bn
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
3 months
Will Egypt default on debt in 2024? Goldman & Pictet say: 'No' I agree with that "Egypt faces about $3.3 billion of dollar bond payments this year, with the first due in March"
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 years
The IMF publishes forecasts for about 190 countries but not Lebanon Reason? "Unusually high degree of uncertainty"
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
7 months
Who can set oil prices in the coming months? • Not Russia: needs to meet surging domestic demand • Not US shale: no intention to markedly boost output • Not OPEC+: most members have no spare capacity => Leaves Saudi as the main price-setter
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
3 months
Egypt: A devaluation is a matter of when, not if. Key items to watch for clues on timing: 1. Gap between black market & official exchange rates 2. IMF deal 3. Higher interest rates 4. Asset sale, like Ras El-Hekma land 5. Ramadan starting around 10 Mar
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
5 months
ما أهم قرار اقتصادي بحت تم اتخاذه في آخر سنتين؟ في رأيي: رفع البنك المركزي الأمريكي لسعر الفائدة (الصورة) تأثير هذا القرار لم يقف عند الولايات المتحدة، بل وصل للمنطقة لنرى وقعه على: مصر، والنفط، والخليج 1/6
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
1 month
Egypt president Sisi: “I realize the extent of suffering .. and I appreciate Egyptians’ resilience even more. Don’t we eat? We eat. Won’t we drink? We drink, and everything is functioning. Things are expensive and some things are not available. So what?”
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
3 years
Saudi Arabia has decided to stop all imports from Lebanon. Last year, Lebanese exports to Saudi totalled $255 million. That's about 6% of all exports.
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 months
Egypt: 1 dollar = 50 pounds
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
2 months
Egypt: - The pound has weakened 38% so far today - Dollar is almost 50 pounds - Could seal an IMF deal in the next few hours
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
1 year
Egypt: Govt is struggling to borrow at reasonable interest rates • It wanted to borrow 3 billion pounds • But only managed to get 1 million (not billion) at 21.7% interest • Investors demanded yields as high as 28%
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
4 years
Saudi Arabia is planning to borrow $58 billion this year and tap reserves for an additional $32 billion. Suggests a deficit of $90 billion, possibly more. It "has already borrowed a total of $19 billion from local and international investors" this year.
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@ZiadMDaoud
Ziad Daoud
5 months
رئيس الأرجنتين المنتخب خافيير ميلي يريد استبدال العملة المحلية بالدولار فهل ستحل الدولرة مشاكل البلد الاقتصادية؟ غالبا لا، لأن عيوب السياسة أكبر من ميزاتها لكن التجربة ستكون دالة لبعض دول منطقتنا، التي تعاني من بعض مشاكل الأرجنتين، مثل لبنان ومصر 1/6
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