ignac mostovic
@mostovic
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quant apostate, using atari to predict future(s) /mostovic.substack.com/
Cracow
Joined March 2009
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Pinned Tweet
Prop-firms down.
NinjaTrader daytrading algo.
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3 step orderflow setup which will make you money in 2022. it`s not magic. you`re welcome.
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Today is 2.2.22 🗝️
And I deploy a tool which I was working on for a very long time now.
It searches for most reliable intraday opportunities on futures markets.
*Not orderflow based as there are things above OF.
It`s free for now, beta phase.
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"The reality is 0dte is such a concentrated risk in the sense of there's so much gamma with like very little time to expiration, market makers can not hedge it with anything other than 0dte... they don't hedge it with futures, they can't."
@jam_croissant
😵💫
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It`s coming! 🚀
We`ll be aping 🐵 mm brokers with oldschool metatrader and 500:1 leverage, getting accounts blocked for excessive returns while bots do the job.
The Bubble Machine is almost ready.
Only 50 seats available because I say so.
...ok, that is low prob. scenario but...
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This month in free section, ill be testing next step of combining futures orderflow with options. I tried to make it as clear as possible and only show tradable levels/setups from both futures and options flows.
you can view it at for free.
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One of the things orderflow furus won't tell you about market profile is you can draw it on eggs...
but that's not all. Happy Easter.
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Ok, thats the only safe way to deploy my first TradingView study collection.
If you are already subscribing to emini, just follow the instructions.
Otherwise register with your TradingView username.
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Nothing changed, cruelty of russian army is well known and documented since WWII. And now this.
And they fucking dare to say its western propaganda and russophobia. This is pure evil.
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strategy around short-term fractal + value explained.
sorry i sound tired and old but i am tired and old.
cheers
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Just a reminder, well known chart, still kind of interesting. USD vs. Dem/Rep president... (some turns are indicated in september as polls were in clear favor of one the candidate).
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well, so now you can use chatgpt new feature (code intepreter) to upload cboe spx option chain file and ask it to do whatever you want. wow.
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many talk shit on
@TicTocTick
for giving bad call (out of so many perfect ones), for not showing "tricks and tips", bashing AT... and yet 99% of these ppl didnt even make effort to thoroughly analyse his plans because if they did (the work) they would never criticize him again.
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Free tools on (cleaning up and adding content this week).
Intraday Futures Scanner:
US Macro vs. SPX:
ES orderbook:
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Few numbers to consider:
If you trade only the first level which is hit (either vcall or vput) during rth. Exit at opposite level or EOD.
5 pts SL, accuracy 67%
avg. Risk/Reward 1:8
SL at cdev/pdev, accuracy 98%
avg. RR 1:3
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last few sessions fucked a lot of people.
understand one thing:
it`s not your analysis that is shit (with some exceptions),
it`s your risk mngmt that got you in trouble.
guy who got it right this time will be fckd next time,
no one has definite answers and unlimited balance.
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I'm gradually moving away from further developing my tools, limiting social media engagement etc. It`s time for me to make some changes and focus on things that were in the background for years.
Read more on last thing I wanted to share-few instances left:
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Options Flow tool for ES, FOR FREE 🆓, you can find it under "free tools" menu or straight from that link below. Description on how to read it below charts. Cheers.
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very impressed by the work of
@nope_its_lily
and her NOPE (net options pricing effect) check it out, she`s definietly onto something here.
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to all the furus out there (and regular speculators) - its not about calling/trading absolute bottom/top, come on man! it's about grabbing some of the move, be it downward or upward. who the fuck cares which direction.
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The second part of 'The Wealth Cycle' which explained underlying force behind $ is almost ready.
#americancycle
is the most important and jaw dropping research/analysis iv done in my life.
Every major market turn in XX/XXI seems to follow the same principle over and over again.
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made a "DOM" for ES based on SPY options levels, should be easier for your eyes
➡️
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explaining for folks who asked about dalio`s all weather, when to buy the dip. Rule is at least two red months in a row + cumulative loss at least -3%. Circled after which months you should buy the dip. There are obviously more implications coming from thisfor a broad market.
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Coding Anna`s fractals on
@tradingview
, such a nice platform if you don`t need external data.
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this is definietly the best ind. iv ever made... and it doesnt even touches options data.
how should i call it?
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Polish trader Rafal Zaorski
@rafal_zaorski
who navigated markets rather perfectly in recent weeks will donate 1mil from his transaction profits to Ukraine. Respect.
To co Braci Imwestorska i Traderska dorzucić 1mln do
@K_Stanowski
czy macie inne pomysły? Zwalniacie mnie w komentarzach z danego słowa rok temu w
@NamZalezy
i zakładu o rozrzucenie kasy na krakowskim i 1mln z zysków z ostatniej spekulacji
#live
idzie na
#ukraina
dla obrońców
1K
712
8K
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today is a mirror of yesterday and yesterday is tomorrow. closing below 3823 actually is bearish with 3840 pivot right now unbreakable if "they" want to go on with their agenda.
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So...who's technique should I decompile next after
@AnnaOfTheOrder
/
@CallMeShylo
pretty awsome work?
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I love researching data, perfecting my tools, deploying new strategies. But dont think even for a second its the only way to go in this market.
If I would choose one tool of them all I'd go with mp/vp, its so simple and elegant and yet so few people realize its potential.
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after running orderbook bot for two months now, thing which starts to be clear is that the greatest benefit comes from analysing liquidity from about 9:00 to 10:00, after that period, in most cases, day is set in sense of mean rev. or trend and you dont need dom that much.
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I was working on stocks algo to give me monthly potential long/short mini portfolio. It simply gives me levels and stocks from sp500 list which "it" thinks are attractive. It recalculates on first trading day of month.
Below is a list + levels + already hit. I like it.
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options flow bot 🤖performance since July 22 (SPY), minute by minute.
+ cheat sheet with some metrics it uses.
I like it, so far.
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I think if market doesnt gap down ⬇️ tomorrow, option dealers might have a problem...
or i just have no idea what im talking about.
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Why I dont want to be a bull right now (excess of long paper + lack of short ones to fuel rally).
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Working on full depth orderbook analysis.
It tracks liquidity 24h but usually less significant in overnight.
Algo for positive/negative dots is very sophisticated because i already lost track of code 😳
You can view this mighty experimental tool here
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Orderflow interests me no more, boring, reverse engineered all the furus out there. It`s ok but meh.
But... that 🗝️ Anna girl, finally something fresh. Initial thoughts: doable.
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story of 432 lots guy, bought at open and capitulated at bottom, good sign for bulls :)
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If you know how to profile things
$BTC is like the purest product for this.
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charts will be now responsive and you`ll be able to arrange/scale/zoom them on your desktop however you like... i think its cool.
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Suddenly everyone forgot that $btc crashes are 80-90% from top, every time.
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Cem 🥐 explained.
New video released! 🙂
Here, we'll explore how the option dealer hedging activities impact the underlying stock market 🦍
We'll cover such things as Gamma 🧲, 👸 & 🦥 and discuss their impact around the OpEx week.
Video link in the first comment below 👇
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3850-35, bears gonna get anihilated.
or i'll delete this tweet.
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0dte this, 0dte that...
there is actual profit in this -
but not like trading actual 0dte :P
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steidlmayer boys vs. machine... no chance
going private with this, but i leave old posts for you to reverse engineer the process.
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I had to take day off and went for a small hike to get the blood flow up... Before hard coding weekend so i can get you the new orderflow tools ready for monday. There is a Big suprised coming. Good luck out there today.
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All major wars with US involvement started exactly at the same phase of the cycle... and ended too.
This is not just about markets. It's way beyond that.
#americancycle
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cleaned up orderflow levels charts, now it shows only the ones which has best rr, also the extreme ones show the stop loss levels for long/short positions. Hope it makes more sense now and will be easier to use...
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nothing more than mm pushing price away to secure today`s strikes. what you saw on futures tape is the effect, not a cause.
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golden setup... and i missed it, fuck
1. Options sentiment bullish all day
2. Price drops into key bullish support on profile
3. Drops right into major bullish order
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Election levels (ES) to trade long for me:
3152 <-intraday bounces/scalps (30-50p reactions)
3111 <-start building long swing position
3080 <-buying calls, end of position buildind
below im fucked.
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Because of high traffic on my website we had a lot of "500-error" and i decided to temporarily turn-off free rt charts. To make it up for free members, this month`s free section is about profile analysis based on ml pattern recognition and some other 🪄.
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Geez, i took a day off (travelling far) and this happens? Im limited on screen time for a few days so i wont post much, but ill dig into todays data for sure. Rule
#0
: avoid fading vcall/vput when they were already exploited (vcall high and then vput low so No go for vcall again
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looking for a bodyguard and a call from bloomberg just to hang up
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dude told me its holy grail and yet high not to the tick, wtf??? price needs to open at or below 3902.
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Bare in mind, gamma on oversold level is quite low (compared to overbought). Not sure if this is enough to hold the price.
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some overnight action. Its going to darkweb soon so it doesnt crush this world completely.
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at this vol/liq pattern you expect market to drop and so you trade off vcall line and expect breach of vput level... which is exactly what happened today.
levels are not everything. read in the doc:
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It`s gonna get better soon. Dont panic, dont let people who loose their shit now drag you into this last phase of madness. Even if im wrong, at least we`ll die smilling. Find things which are cheap now. Some of them will trend huuge next 12-13 years.
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4300-02, two bearish options levels at same location, large sell order on es (most likely algos will start fading it 1-3 points before hit), orderflow midpoint. looks like a good opportunity to short for 10-20 points...
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Lot of mistakes on that trade, biggest - didnt pay enough attention to macro drama. The second part of cycle is still in cards though. As I mentioned, reaching "crash level" = rally back to major support (4560s) and return to bear. But first, tomrw. PMI!
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low to the tick, then high with almost 0 mae. me? didn`t catch any of it, working on something new and unprofitable. oh well.
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quants are seriously bad traders
traders are even worse quants
sorry
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You have to understand, that relying on your furus will lead you nowhere. You might make some moneys here and there of their levels. But this is not trading. They are here for their egos, not your success. These things are simple but they dont want you to know.
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What I think happened on wednesday.
1. Price closes above expiring oi call level (rare).
2. Extreme bullish options sentiment.
3. Extreme volumes on options impacting market through hedging dealers.
4. Dealers drop inventory overnight.
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added SL level above/below which I dont want to be in a potential position, also it gives a clue how to set up risk/reward/targets for these trades.
Added few more contracts. 25 total now. If you have any suggestions as to more instruments, let me know.
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