Sergei Perfiliev 🇺🇦
@perfiliev
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Ex-Goldman Sachs Quant | Options Trader | Finance Teacher | Software Developer Learn financial markets with our new training course! 👇
Not financial advice.
Joined December 2014
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All graduate jobs within big investment banks start the same.
You go through an intense program where industry professionals teach you about markets and macro.
This kick-starts your career and gives you a solid foundation for future success.
Most retail traders lack this.…
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A Ukrainian farmer using his tractor stole A TANK... 😆😆😆
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Losing followers by the hundreds.
Must've lost >1,000 since I started tweeting about 🇺🇦
If you're reading this, thank you for still being with me 🙏
Once this nightmare is over we'll get back to stocks, options and other fun things 📈📉
For now, I just can't keep quiet. 💛💙
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Ukrainian hospital accepts wounded Russian soldiers.
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I thought it was clear by now that this war is not about NATO or Russia's security concerns.
Yet, I still see many comments saying that it is.
Let me clarify a few things.
This war is based on Putin's struggle to remain in power.
NATO is just an excuse.
Here is why 👇🧵
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$500,000,000.
Half a billion dollars.
Currently, this is how much of $SPX index needs to be bought or sold for every 1% down or up move, respectively.
These flows are a result of a substantial options trade that was placed yesterday.
Let's have a look at what's going on 👇
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Bank: Hey! Fed, help us!!!
Fed: Yo, what's up?
Bank: We need some cash, quick!
Fed: Hey, calm the fck down... What's the problem?
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Hey
@GoldmanSachs
, it’s been about 4 months since I left, but I still haven’t received any job offers from the US administration.
How long does this usually take?
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TO ALL EQUITY PMs:
YOU MAY NOT BE INTERESTED IN OPTIONS, BUT OPTIONS ARE INTERESTED IN YOU!
$SPX options make up 16% of the $SPX market cap!
Options gamma is one of the most significant structural flows within the equity markets.
Let's explore how it impacts your business 👇
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After four years as a Quant in Goldman Sachs, I left this month.
In that time, I worked on 3 different desks across Fixed Income & Equities and completed about 20 to 30 different projects.
Here are the 9 non-glamorous things you should know about working as a sell-side Quant.
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One thing we can be sure of.
Putin has succeeded in bringing back USSR that he so longed for.
Do Russians themselves realize what to expect now?
Few, maybe.
But most can't even comprehend the scale of economic destruction that's about to unfold in the motherland.
👇🧵
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Everybody is a disruptive innovator until the Fed pulls the plug.
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Hey Mark, not sure if you know, but anyone can buy this car with a personal auto loan from
@Upstart
!
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Are you tired from constantly living in the dark, fully unaware of the current Gamma Exposure?
Are you frustrated from having to guess the Zero Gamma level ALL THE TIME?
Are you annoyed from not knowing what the f*ck all of this even means!?!
I know, I was.
👇
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Elon Musk during zero interest rates:
• Colonise Mars, drill a fcking vacuum tunnel, create a human brain interface, superhuman AI, how about a flamethrower?
Elon Musk at 4% rates:
• Can everyone just chip in $8 for this free service and shut up?
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No need for a coffee - this one's easy.
In this thread, you'll get a solid understanding of inflation and stagflation.
You’ll learn:
• How Fed can cause inflation
• How the growth/inflation relationship can break
• Current stagflation drivers
• Fed's failure to fix it 🧵👇
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Russian military vehicle runs over a moving civilian car in Kyiv, Obolon district... 😢
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May God protect this man 🙏
Video of Ukrainian father saying goodbye to his kids while he stays behind to fight.
Fuck war.
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Makes me laugh every time I read that Elon Musk is the richest person in the world.
Elon Musk owns Tesla.
Putin owns Russia.
There's a difference.
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This Wednesday!
The Fed is expected to announce a first rate hike in many years.
But how will the market react? How will the stocks move? What is currently priced in?
The options market has the answer! Let's have a look! 👇🧵
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1/ OK, so WTF happened yesterday?
Powell says he's dead serious about hiking and the market rallies +2.24%!
How does this reaction make sense in the context of "tighter monetary policy"?
Weren't higher rates bad for stonks?
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ISM PMI is hugely important - it's used to forecast all kinds of stuff.
For example, PMI tends to lead corporate earnings growth by about a year.
Below, we shifted the PMI index forward by 12 months and plotted it against SPX trailing 12-months EPS growth.
Based on this…
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Was thinking - can the job of a Fed Chairman be automated?
I'm sure we can replace him with some code:
if(inflation < 8%)
rates = 0
print(money)
else
rates += 0.25
How hard can it be? 🤷♂️
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A free, democratic and prosperous Ukraine is a direct threat to Putin's rule of law.
Full stop.
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There are dozens of videos of conversations between Ukrainians and Russian soldiers.
In all I watched, Russians have no idea why they're in Ukraine and what they're doing…
Doesn't look like the morale is high and the goals are clear.
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When people promote escaping 9-to-5, they never really tell you that you’re escaping into 24/7.
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Forget what you hear on CNBC or Bloomberg.
It’s the options market that drives the $SPX price action.
Options became the new underlying and $SPX - the derivative.
Understanding the impact of options flows is vital if you trade the $SPX.
Let’s have a look at how they work! 👇
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Because it’s an easy chain reaction.
If Ukraine can grow and prosper, why can't Belarus?
Why can't Kazakhstan?
And of course, why can't Russia?
No reason why - of course, they can!
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First of all, NATO has never been an issue for decades.
Hell, Kaliningrad is surrounded by NATO.
Latvia and Estonia are bordering Russia, and both are NATO members.
NATO border is 76 miles from St. Petersburg and has been there since 2004.
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Historic moment for Ukraine.
After striving to join the EU for almost two decades, President
@ZelenskyyUa
just signed a European Union membership application.
Unbelievable.
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I'm so sorry... 😂
I understand times are hard, but doesn't the President of the
#Ukraine
own a suit? I don't have much respect for current members of the U.S. Congress either, but I still wouldn't address them wearing a t-shirt. I wouldn't want to disrespect the institution or the Unites States.
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The reason they don’t is because their corrupt and authoritarian governments is a significant bottleneck standing between the nation and prosperity.
Putin knows this, which is why he hangs for his life supporting dictatorships around the world.
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New video of Kharkiv residential area being hit with grad missiles today 🤯
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The market didn't do what I expected.
Was I right? No.
But did I make money? Also, no.
But did I learn a valuable lesson? Still no.
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Fed: How many have you got?
Bank: Not much - 400 yards.
Fed: $400 billion! Damn, this will really jack up my balance sheet. Alright, f*ck it. Let's hope no one notices...
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Wow, the Russian Central Bank is sanctioned too and its access to reserves is limited.
Trying to figure out the impact. Possible run-on-the-banks on Monday?
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Holy sh*t - this isn't even the Ukrainian army, just locals defending their city!
✊ STAY STRONG!
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How do you explain a war to them? How does one even begin to justify that they have to sleep in a dirty basement?...
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So Quantitative Easing isn't money printing and doesn't cause inflation because... you know... reserves.
But Quantitative Tightening and raising rates will tame inflation and bring it under control.
Got it.
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A huge majority of Russian lawmakers' children live and study in NATO countries.
Eye-watering sums of money laundered from the Russian budget and oil revenues sit in NATO-protected real estate.
But Russia isn't putting forces on the Latvian and Estonian border, is it?
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My wife: The market was up, why did you lose money this month?
Me:
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Why Ukraine?
And why now?
Because Belarus.
Because Kazakhstan.
And of course - because Ukraine.
The motivation behind all of this is Putin's struggle for power. (*astronaut meme* always has been)
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Because Putin can't let it go.
Ukraine is one of the pillars on which his power stands.
If he loses it, his power comes under threat.
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The West truly underestimates how much is really at stake in the hands of the Ukrainian army right now.
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That's all.
No 3D chess.
No greater conspiracy theory.
No grand geopolitical masterplan developed by the secret world government.
And anyone who says, “oh, it’s not that simple”, is just trying to confuse and muddy the waters.
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Because if Ukraine can overthrow a government and become a prosperous country - so can they.
Absolutely no way Putin will allow that.
Hence Crimea.
Hence Donbas.
Hence the war.
Hence the Minsk accords.
Hence the "I will f*ck you over anyway I can" diplomacy.
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This is why he sent forces to quell mass protests in Belarus.
This is why he sent troops to Kazakhstan to suppress any uprising.
This is why he supported the ousted Ukrainian president Yanukovich.
But his efforts failed in Ukraine!
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At a cost of many lives, Ukrainians overthrew their government in 2014 during the Euromaidan revolution.
And if they succeed in fighting corruption and becoming a developed, democratic nation, this will be a terrible precedent for all the post-Soviet dictatorships.
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All of that is simply driven by two factors:
1. Punish Ukraine and make an example of what happens to counties that rebel against their leaders.
2. Prevent Ukraine from developing and prospering, so other ex-Soviet republics aren’t tempted to protest.
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1/ Interesting inflection point (and pin risk?)
SPX closed at 4,511 today - almost at the short $JHEQX put strike of 4,510.
This short dealer put is negative gamma, which tends to add to volatility.
Surely we won't stay at 4,510 too long, right?
Not quite...
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Do I think the war in Ukraine will happen?
Until yesterday, I was confident there won't be any military action from Russia.
(At least no more than the undercover warfare that's been going on since 2014).
There are many reasons for this 👇
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I honestly don't believe Russia has a superior army.
Russian-made products aren't particularly famous for high quality, to put it mildly.
Corruption on all levels of the production process destroys the quality of anything the Russian state produces.
The army is no exception.
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Why is Fed's RRP facility important?
Is RRP drawdown the reason why stocks are up and the economy is strong despite tighter monetary policy?
What happens when RRP goes down to zero? 👇
Fed's RRP facility is supposed to be a measure of "excess liquidity", which was needed…
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Putin did far more damage to Russia than all of the Western sanctions combined.
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EU and US agree to cut Russia from the SWIFT network.
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Love is...
...watching the Russian warship burn, together ♥️
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Russia proposes peace talks in Belarus:
• Belarus is Russia's ally.
• Belarus hosts Russian military.
• Ukraine was attacked from Belarus border.
• Today Belarus "votes" whether to house Russian nukes in Belarus.
Doesn't particularly sound like a neutral territory...
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Dollar is like Facebook.
No one likes it and everyone says it's dead, but it still got billions of active users worldwide.
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Disappointing sanctions so far... exclude Energy and Swift.
What more does Putin need to do to unlock the next stage?
Why is the West so afraid to overdo it?!
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Virtually all foreign businesses have left Russia.
It's probably easier to name those that still operate (yes, looking at you
@CocaCola
!).
All foreign-made products will shortly disappear from supermarket shelves.
However, it's only the beginning.
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Sources close to the government say that Putin won't invade until a clear head and shoulders pattern is formed on $SPX.
Buy the dip for peace on earth! ☮️
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A month ago,
@SqueezeMetrics
shared an intriguing idea about $TSLA potentially destroying passive income from within the $SPX index.
He referred to it as the Trojan horse.
I decided to explore this scenario further and outline how it might play out 👇
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When everyone copies each other's trades on WallStreetBets:
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What does it mean for a stock to lose 95% of its value?
First, it needs to go down 90%.
And then it needs to go down 50%.
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Deleted the video with POW.
Wanted to show who Putin sends to war - kids born in 2000s, unfortunate backgrounds, from poverty-stricken villages in distant regions of oil-rich Russia.
Army is usually a way to a slightly better life...
Why do they have to die for this non-sense?
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Ukraine is on its own.
Against the fifth largest army in the world.
There is no direct military involvement from EU/US/Nato.
Sanctions should more than make up for that, not fall miserably short...
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Banking problem is not due to the spread between deposit accounts and money market funds, even though it's historically high.
Nor is it due to deposits running from banks into MMFs.
The issue is that funds leave the banking system because of what MMFs do with that capital.
1/
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When I was at <1,000 followers, I used to write to every new follower thanking them.
The early followers can confirm that.
Right now at 25k it's practically impossible.
But I still want you to know that I appreciate every single one of you.
Thank you all for your support! 🙏
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It also sends a clear message to the Russian people.
You protest - you get what happened in Ukraine.
*in a thick Russian accent*: You don't want that happen to you, do you?
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Moscow stock exchange has been closed since the invasion.
Russian ADRs listed in London lost over 90% before being suspended altogether.
Financial market experts go on live TV to say farewell to the Russian stock market.
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1/ What does the options market say about the stock market?
Despite the negative sentiment and risks, investors don't seem to put their money where their mouth is.
Due to little demand, hedges are screening cheap, and vol sellers are coming back.
Here's what I'm looking at 👇
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I've updated the Gamma Python script on the website:
Specifically, made the following changes:
1. Added more charts to display Total Spot Gamma and by Puts/Calls separately.
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Thank you so much for taking the time to read this!
I sincerely hope you found it interesting and valuable.
Follow me (
@perfiliev
) for more educational threads around stocks, options and other topics within the incredible world of financial markets.
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President
@ZelenskyyUa
confirms he and his team are in Kyiv.
Kyiv is currently in a defensive mode anticipating a move by the Russian forces.
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This photo will go down in history books.
NO WAR
STOP THE WAR
DON'T BELIEVE THE PROPAGANDA
THEY ALL LIE TO YOU
RUSSIANS AGAINST WAR
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Dollar is like Facebook.
No one likes it and everyone says it's dead, but it still got billions of active users worldwide.
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If( MarketsUp ):
headline = "Markets up despite " + issueOfTheDay
else:
headline = "Markets down because " + issueOfTheDay
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With recent demonstrations in Belarus and Kazakhstan, Putin decided that another Ukraine example is in order.
And starting a war achieves both of these objectives.
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Next week marks the so-called triple-witching when SPX, SPY and ES options all expire.
Around $2.5T of options are set to expire next Friday, and like other December expirations, it will be the largest this year.
So what does it mean for the markets and the Santa rally?🎄🧵
1/
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And it doesn't matter that most of Ukraine's recent misfortunes come from Russia f*cking with it.
It will be lost.
What will remain is a simple cause-and-effect:
You rebel -> you get war
The missing link of course would be:
You rebel -> you get Putin on your ass -> you get war
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The bad news for Russia is that many of the sanctions are irreversible.
Even if the war ends now and all sanctions are lifted, many corporations and investors would think twice before returning to Russia.
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Gazprom - once a global oil giant with a $350 billion market cap, now trades at a $0.6 billion valuation.
And that's without energy-related sanctions on Russia.
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Bank of England:
- Inflation is 9% and is expected hit double-digits soon, we really need to get it under control!
UK Govt:
- Say no more! Free £400 stimmy checks for everyone!!!
Bank of England:
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The older generations of Russians have frequently expressed nostalgic views about the USSR.
Now it seems that they'll have an opportunity to experience it again.
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"All bull markets are alike, but each bear market loses money in its own unique way."
Leo Tolstoy, "Anna Karenina", 1878
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Visual representation of the events last week.
Deposits are effectively re-lent back to regional and non-SIB banks via MMFs/RRP, but at ~5% rates, which increases the cost of funding for banks.
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Kitchen successfully denazified and demilitarized using a high precision missile.
Kharkiv region, Ukraine.
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Hello and welcome!
Every now and then, I write educational threads about trading, investing and other exciting topics within the financial markets 📈📉
Have a look at the most interesting and popular threads below 🧵👇
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Me:
- "Hey, look, 20k followers on Twitter!"
My wife:
- "Great. Where is the money, Sergei?"
Love her so much ❤️
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Can't wait for
@TuckerCarlson
to report that the Russian coup was all orchestrated by Pentagon and that Prigozhin actually works for CIA.
And for
@elonmusk
to retweet it, of course.
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Absolutely heartbreaking 😥
Reportedly a phone of a captured Russian soldier.
- Why are you not responding? Are you still doing military exercises?
- Mom, I'm not in Crimea anymore. We're not doing exercises
- Where are you? Your father is asking if we can send you a package
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1/ US Fiscal Budget: $7T
Tax Revenues: $4T
US Debt: $30.5T
At around 1.2% UST rate in 2021, interest payments were $350 bln/year
At around 3.4% in 2022, interest payments should be $1T/year
At what point will higher rates cause a problem?
Here is what happens at 13% 🧵👇
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Half a million (!) people on the streets of Berlin! 🇩🇪 😎
Danke! 🙏
This morning more than 500,000 people took to the streets of
#Berlin
to protest against
#Russian
invasion of
#Ukriane
. The world is united against the occupants.
#StandWithUkriane
💙💛
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Ok, you HAVE to watch this! 📺
- "But, Sergei, it's about JPM trade?! Again?! Come on!"
Yes, it's about JPM. Again. TRUST ME - WATCH IT! 😎
YouTube link in the first comment below 👇
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