Mike Mers
@mmers
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Founder & CEO of Aspen Capital Management. Die hard Boise State Fan - I bleed blue! Passionate about investing, financial planning & college football.
Boise, ID.
Joined July 2009
3/4 But if the y-axis is extended to the NEXT (future) 5-year REAL (after inflation) return, then THERE IS NO EXAMPLE, OVER THE LAST 150 YEARS, OF THE STOCK MARKET BEATING INFLATION OVER THE NEXT 5-YEARS WHEN THE CAPE IS ABOVE 34. Restated, valuation is an expectation tool.
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Everyone wants the moment. Few want the monotony. Greatness is repetition done with intent. Same drill. Same detail. Same standard—every day. Learn to "embrace the boredom of consistency".
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Cheap country stock markets below are up 40%+ YTD and now beating the S&P 500 over the last 1, 3, 5 years. 😱😱😱
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It’s worth remembering that while the top-heavy concentration during the late 1990’s was quickly reversed in the early 2000’s, during the 1950’s and 1960’s the market remained top-heavy for many years before excessive valuations finally took their toll. This could take some time.
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The S&P 500 is now trading at 3.3x sales, its highest valuation in history. $SPX Video: https://t.co/Hkyj4R6VWx
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What would $5k invested each year grow to by age 65 (assuming a 10% annual return)? Over $2 million if you start at age 25 but only $159k if you start at age 50. Your biggest investing edge isn’t stock picking. It’s time.
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"Don't look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack!" - Jack Bogle
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Buyer beware
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You'd better have a really, really, really good reason to invest in the most expensive funds. https://t.co/87Gx6FrSiH
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Start of 2025: ‘Why should I own anything outside of the U.S.?’ Eight months later: Greece +70%, Poland +66%, Austria +54% … S&P 500 +9%. The future is unknown. That’s why you diversify.
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Started a new series for the summer: "20 Things You May Not Know About Markets (or That Might Surprise You)." #1 - Normal Stock Market Returns are Extreme HT: @fisherinvest
https://t.co/5gFtwCXbUn
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On Jan. 1, 2015, there were 1,345 alternative mutual funds in existence. Guess how many of those alternative funds still exist? 341 The other 1,000 or so have been liquidated or merged away, a 75% mortality rate.
A decade or two ago fund cos. launched liquid alts funds like crazy. Many of those funds have since fallen by the wayside. There are lessons in that for would-be private market investors, as I explain in my latest article.
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Warren Buffett on how to get very rich: “It doesn’t take brains. It takes temperament.”
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"You either have the passive strategy that wins the majority of the time, or you have this very active strategy that beats the market…For almost all institutions and individuals, the simple approach is best.” David Swensen
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There are 5 companies in the top 10 today that were in the top 10 in 2015, 3 that were in the top 10 in 2010 and just 1 that featured in the top 10 in 2005. Of the current top 50 companies in the US, only half were in the top 50 a decade ago, and many did not even exist before
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What could possibly have performed better than buying the Lakers for 68 million in 1979 and selling it for a valuation of 10 billion today? Answer: The stock market. Simply investing in the S&P 500 would have netted an additional 3 billion (though likely not as fun!).
Jerry Buss bought the LA Lakers, LA Kings and The Forum for $68m in 1979. The Buss family just sold a majority stake at a $10B valuation (Buss sold LA Kings in 1988 and The Forum in 2000). Since 1979, a $68m investment in S&P 500 is now worth $13B. So, Buss family
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Actively trading stocks to try to beat the market is a loser's game. The longer you play, the more the odds stack up against you.
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Incredible stat: 98% of Warren Buffett's current net worth of $160 billion came after he turned 65. "My life has been a product of compound interest." Warren Buffett
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