The fastest recovery ever continued last week, with the S&P 500 index gaining another 2%. The $5 trillion Big Beautiful Bill (BBB) was passed, and it looks like the markets have re-priced in the animal spirits that were part of the red wave playbook last November, before they.

Bitcoin has been benefiting from both a rising global money supply and a rally in risk assets. A win-win for Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hide.

Perhaps gold has been eyeing a new era of fiscal dominance since 2022, when it stopped trading on real rates and started trading on the dollar’s eroding hegemony. With the US dollar now comprising 54% of all reserve currencies and 58% of allocated reserves, gold’s share of all

With the Big Beautiful Bill now law, and expected to add $5 trillion in debt, the question is whether the US economy’s speed limit can be raised enough to avoid a debt spiral down the road. The simple math is that the economy needs to grow faster than its cost of borrowing. That

a premature policy easing runs the risk of being challenged by the bond vigilantes, who can bear-steepen the curve and hit the economy where it really hurts

With the jobless rate ticking down to 4.1% in June, while inflation expectations hold steady, there hasn’t been much progress from the Taylor Rule. If the neutral rate is around 100 bps (real) and inflation remains sticky at 2.5-3.0%, then a few rate cuts are all we might get.

While political pressure continues on the Fed, monetary policy remains on hold, which in my view is the correct approach. While there is room to cut rates (3 times, according to my math), there is really no hurry to do so. Monetary policy is not that restrictive, the US economy

Knowing how much to pay for each dollar of earnings is as much art as science. Thinking of the “do you want to own this” question from before, does the answer change when we add valuation to the mix? Do you want to own the chart below, knowing that you are paying almost 24 times

With the S&P 500 index making all-time highs once again, the trendline is clearly up and the index is now well above it. This shows momentum, which usually begets more momentum. The only thing not to like in the chart below is the tepid breadth, with only 57% of stocks above

The loss of earnings momentum that was priced in a few months ago as the Tariff Tantrum was raging will now be put to the test as Q2 earnings seasons gets going in another week, while the 90-day cooling off period comes to an end. Based on the historical pattern, 2nd quarter

With both liquidity improving per the global money supply and the stock market reaching new highs, it’s no surprise that Bitcoin is on the move again. Both Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde are being supported for now, and Bitcoin should be at new all-time highs soon enough if this

With risk appetites rising, the baton has been passed back to Bitcoin, following the pattern of recent months. You can see that in the chart below, with the two Sharpe Ratios converging.

One of the big questions remains whether a new world order is emerging in which the US dollar loses at least some of its supremacy and is supplanted by a mixture of other fiat currencies and hard money (gold and perhaps Bitcoin). Maybe this regime change was signaled three years

The dollar’s weakness has been palpable as of late, with the DXY continuing to make new lows.

Global equities are participating in the risk rally, with the MSCI ACWI ex-US index making new highs in both USD and local currency terms. Relative momentum curves continue to converge, indicating a chance in leadership. The MSCI EAFE index is also making new highs (in both USD

The market’s peak valuation continues to impress, especially in comparison to the rising cost of capital around the world and in the US. The chart below shows a stark divergence between bond yields and equity P/E’s. For now, the Fed model has not been triggered as yields remain

Valuations are unquestionably stretched again, with the price/FCF ratio nearing the old highs on both an equal-weighted and cap-weighted basis.

There is some room for earnings to pick up steam here if the tariff tantrum is really behind us and the BBB unleashes a fiscal boom. Credit spreads seem agree with the above, with both investment grade and high yield spreads back near the February tights. A potential divergence

The S&P 500 equal-weighted index remains below its all-time high, and the market’s breadth remains unimpressive with only 56% of stocks above their 200-day moving average and only 10% of stocks sporting strong momentum (i.e., an RSI above 70). But that V-shaped bottom in the SPW

Mega caps are driving the bus again, outperforming the equal-weighted S&P 500 by 19% over the past 3 months.