Michael Madowitz
@mikemadowitz
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Principal Economist @RooseveltInst, @RooseveltFwd Used to love this place This = me+β(no_sleep)+ε
NE, DC
Joined February 2013
Early #JobsDay this Thursday!. I usually don't pay much attention to the teenager stats, but weird trends in the economy makes this summer a time to watch teens' jobs numbers. Wrote this up in a preview post, but a 🧵for the TLDR crowd .1/
Teen summer jobs are more than just a seasonal tradition—they’re a window into the strength of the labor market. Ahead of jobs day, @mikemadowitz explores what the pace of youth hiring could tell us about the economy:
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Thinking of posting huge self owns like this for the clicks.
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RT @bencasselman: If you squint, you can find things in this report to worry about. Private-sector hiring slowed, esp. outside of health ca….
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RT @mtkonczal: With an extra decimal, unemployment is at 4.12%, reversing a few months of climbing. A year ago, unemployment was at 4.08%.….
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RT @JedKolko: Job growth lags in industries that rely more on unauthorized immigrants. Those industries have grown more slowly than other….
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The teenage employment rate was brutal under a stronger jobs report . The May-June gain of 3.4% (vs 4.4% in 6/24) is the weakest on record . At 34.2% NSA, the level is the 9th worst ever--after covid and GFC recovery of 2009-2016. 1/
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Private equity’s midlife crisis: Italian leather pants were too tight to fit.
Carlyle is in talks to hand over the keys to Dainese to creditors HPS Investment Partners and Arcmont Asset Management, in one of the first potential private credit takeovers in Italy
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RT @lydiadepillis: For the few years I've been covering jobs reports, and one sector typically rises above the rest, quietly hiring by the….
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RT @stevehou0: Great article on the impact of the crackdown on illegal immigration on the interpretability of the job growth numbers! Indee….
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House conservatives seem to have gotten some kind of commitment from Trump that the energy subsidies included in the bill are not what they seem
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*another 30 minutes
On earth 2 government could wait 1 more day to see how much the economy has softened before blowing up the budget in ways that don’t help.
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Negative growth is definitely a concept of growth.
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On earth 2 government could wait 1 more day to see how much the economy has softened before blowing up the budget in ways that don’t help.
Will need to wait for the BLS data (one more day!), but this is not encouraging. Small employers shedding jobs more, which could reflect tariff induced cost pressures (which they may be less able to absorb).
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RT @Brendan_Duke: Recommend this entire @econJaredB piece from beginning to end and back again.
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If someone took 3 years and taught this guy how to think, maybe he'd notice he answered his own question?
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RT @ArnabDatta321: Trump’s trade talks made it clear: on critical minerals, China holds the cards. The U.S. needs more than stockpiles and….
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Clash of the republican economic myths titans in this tweet. Republicans = Deficit hawks. Vs.Tax cuts pay for themselves
Trump says he is a "cost-cutting Republican." There has never been a Republican less interested in cost cutting than him.
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There’s more texture to this than I thought (see full post!), but TLDR watch teen hiring this month. it tells us a lot about which of the 2 competing stories on weaker hiring demand is right. That matters for recession odds & for policy. /fin.
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Further, the robots/singularity/techbros are not coming for teen summer jobs--chatGPT can't lifeguard at the pool, or work as a camp counselor. This isn't investment advice, this is about separating cyclical vs secular causes of weaker hiring. 3/.
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