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Michael Madowitz Profile
Michael Madowitz

@mikemadowitz

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Principal Economist @RooseveltInst, @RooseveltFwd Used to love this place This = me+β(no_sleep)+ε

NE, DC
Joined February 2013
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@mikemadowitz
Michael Madowitz
11 days
Early #JobsDay this Thursday!. I usually don't pay much attention to the teenager stats, but weird trends in the economy makes this summer a time to watch teens' jobs numbers. Wrote this up in a preview post, but a 🧵for the TLDR crowd .1/
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@rooseveltinst
Roosevelt Institute
14 days
Teen summer jobs are more than just a seasonal tradition—they’re a window into the strength of the labor market. Ahead of jobs day, @mikemadowitz explores what the pace of youth hiring could tell us about the economy:
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@mikemadowitz
Michael Madowitz
8 days
Thinking of posting huge self owns like this for the clicks.
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@mikemadowitz
Michael Madowitz
8 days
RT @bencasselman: If you squint, you can find things in this report to worry about. Private-sector hiring slowed, esp. outside of health ca….
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@mikemadowitz
Michael Madowitz
8 days
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@mikemadowitz
Michael Madowitz
8 days
RT @mtkonczal: With an extra decimal, unemployment is at 4.12%, reversing a few months of climbing. A year ago, unemployment was at 4.08%.….
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@mikemadowitz
Michael Madowitz
8 days
RT @JedKolko: Job growth lags in industries that rely more on unauthorized immigrants. Those industries have grown more slowly than other….
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@mikemadowitz
Michael Madowitz
8 days
The kids, they could be better:. (data: ).
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@mikemadowitz
Michael Madowitz
8 days
The teenage employment rate was brutal under a stronger jobs report . The May-June gain of 3.4% (vs 4.4% in 6/24) is the weakest on record . At 34.2% NSA, the level is the 9th worst ever--after covid and GFC recovery of 2009-2016. 1/
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@mikemadowitz
Michael Madowitz
8 days
Private equity’s midlife crisis: Italian leather pants were too tight to fit.
@business
Bloomberg
8 days
Carlyle is in talks to hand over the keys to Dainese to creditors HPS Investment Partners and Arcmont Asset Management, in one of the first potential private credit takeovers in Italy
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@mikemadowitz
Michael Madowitz
8 days
RT @lydiadepillis: For the few years I've been covering jobs reports, and one sector typically rises above the rest, quietly hiring by the….
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@mikemadowitz
Michael Madowitz
8 days
RT @stevehou0: Great article on the impact of the crackdown on illegal immigration on the interpretability of the job growth numbers! Indee….
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@mikemadowitz
Michael Madowitz
8 days
@MattZeitlin
Matthew Zeitlin
8 days
House conservatives seem to have gotten some kind of commitment from Trump that the energy subsidies included in the bill are not what they seem
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@mikemadowitz
Michael Madowitz
8 days
*another 30 minutes
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@mikemadowitz
Michael Madowitz
9 days
On earth 2 government could wait 1 more day to see how much the economy has softened before blowing up the budget in ways that don’t help.
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@mikemadowitz
Michael Madowitz
9 days
Negative growth is definitely a concept of growth.
@marthagimbel
Martha Gimbel
9 days
“All about growth”
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@mikemadowitz
Michael Madowitz
9 days
On earth 2 government could wait 1 more day to see how much the economy has softened before blowing up the budget in ways that don’t help.
@arindube
Arin Dube
9 days
Will need to wait for the BLS data (one more day!), but this is not encouraging. Small employers shedding jobs more, which could reflect tariff induced cost pressures (which they may be less able to absorb).
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@mikemadowitz
Michael Madowitz
9 days
RT @Brendan_Duke: Recommend this entire @econJaredB piece from beginning to end and back again.
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@mikemadowitz
Michael Madowitz
10 days
If someone took 3 years and taught this guy how to think, maybe he'd notice he answered his own question?
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@mikemadowitz
Michael Madowitz
11 days
RT @ArnabDatta321: Trump’s trade talks made it clear: on critical minerals, China holds the cards. The U.S. needs more than stockpiles and….
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@mikemadowitz
Michael Madowitz
11 days
Clash of the republican economic myths titans in this tweet. Republicans = Deficit hawks. Vs.Tax cuts pay for themselves
@JamesSurowiecki
James Surowiecki
11 days
Trump says he is a "cost-cutting Republican." There has never been a Republican less interested in cost cutting than him.
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@mikemadowitz
Michael Madowitz
11 days
There’s more texture to this than I thought (see full post!), but TLDR watch teen hiring this month. it tells us a lot about which of the 2 competing stories on weaker hiring demand is right. That matters for recession odds & for policy. /fin.
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@mikemadowitz
Michael Madowitz
11 days
Further, the robots/singularity/techbros are not coming for teen summer jobs--chatGPT can't lifeguard at the pool, or work as a camp counselor. This isn't investment advice, this is about separating cyclical vs secular causes of weaker hiring. 3/.
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