Michael McKee
@mckonomy
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International Economics & Politics for Bloomberg TV/Radio *Formerly verified and still the same person* same ID for Threads
38,000 feet above somewhere
Joined March 2011
As I did stand my watch upon the hill,. I looked toward Birnam, and anon methought. The Wood began to move.
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Listen him. He knows whereof he speaks.
Data is going to be all over the place during this hour. Lots of people jumping to conclusions with little information. Really good hour to go for a walk and breathe.
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Election Twitter reactions so far would have suggested the Yankees were a lock to win the World Series. We're half an inning in.
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This is worse than the Super Bowl. A whole long day of pre-game analysts saying "this is a close election, we don't know what's gonna happen" before the count starts. But at least with the Super Bowl they play the damn game, it ends, and we can all go to bed. .
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Watching college football (home in NYC) and every commercial break is stuffed with political ads. Makes me really feel for the poor people in the battleground states who have had to put up with this for months!.
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But. @BobEUnlimited, the Fed does not "plan" to do that. The dot plot isn't a plan. It's 19 different guesstimates of where policy would be if the data turn out as each of the 19 forecast. WE focus on the median as if it were a plan. The data change, the policy path changes.
The Fed plans to cut 150bps over the next 12m into an economy with strong growth, strong employment and inflation still above mandate. The epitome of "Over Easy" policy. Thread.
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Tinfoil hat stuff. Here are the initial release values and current revised values for payroll changes during the Biden administration. Sometimes they are revised up, sometimes they are revised down.
Am deeply disappointed with this take. I suppose no revisions to imprecise initial estimates would serve to improve trust?.
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RT @ChrisRugaber: The silver lining in weaker-then-expect jobs report is that solid economic growth with modest hiring does point to an ong….
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The BLS says it "can't quantify" the hurricane impact on October jobs, but 512,000 people reported they were unable to work because of weather; and 1.4 million said they could only find part-time work because of weather. The @federalreserve will look through this.
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KEY FACT ABOUT THE JOBS REPORT TODAY:. You can trust the numbers. It is not 'manipulated' by the @BLS_gov .#jobsreport.
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Economists have grown more pessimistic about today's jobs figures. Consensus is down to 100,000. But Wall Street is leaning ever more positive: whisper number now up to 140,000. #jobsreport #FED.
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RT @iJordanMoore: Mookie Betts.Kiké Hernandez.Ryan Brasier.Joe Kelly.Michael Kopech. Congratulations to the Red Sox on winning the 2024 Wor….
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As an economist I have to appreciate the efficiency of Alex Vesia in doing his job. #WorldSeries.
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RT @EmpireStateBldg: Tonight from 9-10PM we will shine in tie-dye to honor the life and legacy of Phil Lesh @GratefulDead .
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Terrible news. Godspeed Phil Lesh. RIP. The music will never stop.
RIP Phil Lesh. Truly heartbreaking. We’ve loved this band and man for most of our lives. 💜. Much love to everyone 🙏🏼. #phillesh
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The darkness has come, it seems. "All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.".
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