Justin Smirk
@macrojustin
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Senior Economist at Westpac Group. All views expressed here are my own & may, or may not, reflect the views of Westpac Group. A retweet is not an endorsement.
Sydney, NSW, Australia
Joined April 2015
September quarter CPI data showed inflationary pressures continue to ease, but probably not by enough to trigger an RBA rate cut by year-end, says Westpac Chief Economist Luci Ellis. https://t.co/SaRlmI9zFK
westpac.com.au
Inflationary pressures continue to ease, but probably not by enough to shift the RBA away from its stance that there will be no rate cuts this year.
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In my book, ‘Retelling Australia’s Water Story’, I argue for a more inclusive vision for managing water into the future. How do we create a sustainable Australian water future? https://t.co/nmW4ljA6Yz via @ABCaustralia
abc.net.au
From water licensing, to drought resilience and everyday access, how our water supply is controlled is an issue that affects everyone.
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These 5 ‘post-truth’ claims are fuelling the water wars in Australia https://t.co/O7GYfSkYAP via @ConversationEDU
theconversation.com
Policy reform is urgently needed to make water use in Australia sustainable, but it won’t be effective unless it’s based on facts.
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Highlights from my National Press Club Address and book of the same title: Retelling Australia’s Water Story
globalwaterforum.org
Retelling Australia’s Water Story It’s a much darker tale than the 'standard' Australian water story; it's a story of theft, environmental decline and disaster https://bit.ly/4h0PvZ6
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In preparation for my trip to PNG next week we have published our PNG Economic Update with the focus on our new Imports Indicator which suggests imports into PNG have been trending down since February!
westpaciq.com.au
A monthly update on the PNG economy
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A great update from Ryan Wells and as noted earlier, nothing here points to a rate cut by the RBA this year.
westpaciq.com.au
Employment: +47.5k (from +48.9k). Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (from 4.2%). Participation Rate: 67.1% (from 67.1%). Labour demand continues to absorb robust increases in labour supply.
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The labour market remains tight. Don’t fall for it was all partime. Hours worked grew more than employment while participation is trending higher, even for males. There is no chance of a rate cut on these numbers this year!
The trend data in today's @ABSStats Labour Force release continues to suggest it's a relatively tight labour market.
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Oh my god - El Capitan with his only his feet & hands! I have nothing to add!
Czech climber Adam Ondra conquers El Capitan in Yosemite National Park with a free climb. This is pretty much my worst nightmare.
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We have held are June Qtr CPI forecast since early June and it remains 1.0%qtr. The all important Trimmed Mean also remains 0.9%qtr. If the CPI prints as we expect it does not close the window for a potential rate cut in November.
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If this is real, and not just a well edited video, this is amazing and ground shaking!
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Australia can clearly do better - we need to stop the excuses and make the needed changes.
Never ask a man his salary, a woman her age, or an Anglophone country how it’s housing policy is going.
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Economics is an ecosystem and I love most or perhaps even all of it. Theorists. Empiricists. Government statisticians. Ivory tower academics. In the trenches think tankers. Investment bank economists. Government economists. Tweeters. And many more I didn't mention.
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Electric cars are not the future - First off my personal bias, I don’t own a car and have many bicycles. And part of the reason why is exactly this, urban mobility should not focus on a particular form of transport but a variety of options
ft.com
In cities at least, e-bikes make more cultural and consumer sense
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As we head into the festive season something to think about.
A lot of leftists -- and some rightists -- believe that national wealth comes from imperialist extraction of resources. No. It does not. The global economy is not like a Dungeons and Dragons game, where you beat up other people and take their gold. https://t.co/f2OUXloWnl
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This great 1997 article by Bob Shiller has survey evidence on to why people dislike inflation: they don't believe wages would be very different if inflation were lower. They think inflation makes them worse off from higher prices, as wages would be the same w/o inflation. 🧵
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This is something I think about everyday until I get a headache. How are we going to transition to net zero, get the investment we need and meet the social/economic demands of the wider community? We are way of being close to achieving any of these goals.
OPINION: Vik Bansal, the chief executive of building products giant Boral, has provided a reality check on how the energy transition is actually rolling out for Australian industry.
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This helps to reposition a lot of the conflict’s into the context of the decline of superpowers & the rise of regional powers.
The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh “is not a Samuel Huntington-style clash of civilizations,��� writes Georgi Derluguian. Instead, “it’s a harbinger of the coming world disorder.”
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Used judiciously the Monthly CPI is a powerful indicator of the quarterly CPI. Aug is the mid month of the qtr & brings a larger share of services. On this basis, + stronger crude oil prices & lower AUD we have upgrade our inflation forecasts. https://t.co/Ce2jmtTPlL
westpaciq.com.au
Momentum in the Monthly CPI plus stronger crude oil prices and a weaker AUD behind the upwards revision. We are now forecasting the CPI to be 4.3%yr at end 2023 (was 3.9%yr) and the Trimmed Mean at...
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There is a high probability of climate change being an existential crisis so we need to take out insurance. Yet we don’t understand the cost of that insurance nor the cost of climate change as we are nowhere close limiting the increase to just 2 degrees.
westpaciq.com.au
Speech by Michele Bullock on the RBA’s approach to incorporate climate change into their economic analysis
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