Gary Winslett 🌐🇺🇸
@GaryWinslett
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@Middlebury Prof + IPE Director. Sr Advisor @ProgressChamber Democratic Cost-of-Living Agenda. Studies the politics of trade and the tech sector. YIMBY. 🐊 🦅
South Burlington, VT
Joined July 2015
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My new book- Competitiveness and Death: Trade and Politics in Cars, Beef, and Drugs- examines negotiations between firms, activists, and govt. officials around regulatory trade barriers in the auto, meat, and pharmaceuticals industries. Available Mar 9.
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There will be a lot of commentary framing Tim Walz as a pick meant to please the progressive base. But I’m a self-identified pro-market moderate and I’m a big fan of this pick too. Here’s a brief list of what I like about him.
@jdcmedlock
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One of the skeleton keys to understanding American politics is that, because Baby Boomers as a cohort were so much larger than the generations before and after them, the political system has continually reflected their particular interests at each point in their life cycle. 1/5
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The “everything sucks” doomerism of the far left and right is wrong. Worse, it needlessly radicalizes people. Today is better than yesterday and tomorrow is going to be even better. So here’s a list of 50 areas where we're seeing progress. 1/
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Here we have a blighted Pizza Hut in South Burlington. A developer wants to turn it into 30 housing units, commercial space, and a bank. The local review board is saying no. Mind blowing. It’s a perfect encapsulation of this area’s counterproductive politics on development. 1/12
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If you want to build a social democracy a la Denmark, you cannot be an anarchist. That kind of society *requires* very high levels of social trust, which you can only get if people think the rules apply to everyone and if there are strong norms + sanctions against rule breaking.
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It’s not just the policies though. As least from what I can tell from the videos I’ve seen, Walz doesn’t come across to me as angry. He’s a normal, nice person. I like him. And I think that matters. Angry, not nice politics is exhausting. I want nice people in office. 8/8
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He signed the country’s most comprehensive Right-to-Repair law. These laws give consumers over where and how to repair their purchases (i.e. *their property*), reduce barriers to market entry, and promote competition and innovation. 2/8
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Never ask a man his salary, a woman her age, or an Anglophone country how it’s housing policy is going.
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When they were young and wanted more higher education, public higher education got expanded and funded well.
When they were in the years where they wanted to buy a house, we allowed a lot of new housing to get built.
When they wanted growth to be prioritized, it was. 2/5
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It’s frustrating, but this helps explain why the progressive victories of the Obama presidency -the ACA, gay marriage, the Paris Agreement, the JCPOA, getting out of Iraq, etc.- count for so little to some younger voters. They can’t imagine a world where those things aren’t real.
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Where he most leans toward expanding the state, it’s in areas like universal school lunches, more pre-K provision, and paid family leave that are the exact areas where I’m totally cool with state expansion. 6/8
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@AlecStapp
Someone needs to explain to me why this argument didn’t go down well. It’s obviously rational. Clever even.
Like, why would anyone not immediately be persuaded by this?
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None of this makes Boomers bad by the way and none of this is nefarious- it’s just what happens in a democracy when you have large numbers. But I think it’s a useful component in understanding why some of our economic policies look so different from one period to the next. 5/5
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"I give this a 9.9, it's divine, I'm getting this a lot more!"
Ok people...if you want to understand who I was at 20, this is it. I was from small town nowhere, had never had sushi or Indian food til I went to college + was so geeked about every new global experience. Still am.
This incredibly sincere white guy trying Indian food for the very first time and having his mind blown is so wholesome
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Now that they’re mostly retired, we have a political system fighting itself over who can promise harder not to touch retiree benefits even as their costs balloon and they crowd out other priorities.
And we’ve deprioritized growth (why do you need growth if you’re retired?) 4/5
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When they got to their peak earning years, looked at how much they were being taxed, and wanted a tax cut, they got it.
When they were toward the end of their working years and felt threatened by change, they got a President who governed via weaponized nostalgia. 3/5
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He signed a $100 million tax cut that also simplified the tax-filing system in Minnesota. And he brags about tax cutting as part of his accomplishments. That’s cool! 4/8
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He has signed green energy permitting reform, supported refugee resettlement, banned noncompete agreements that curtail workers’ economic liberty, and has strongly supported workforce development which helps businesses and workers. 5/8
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He’s proud of the state attracting business. This is not a “billionaire tears”, anti-business, harangue-on-capital kind of guy, at least not as far as I can tell. And that’s important to me. 3/8
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🤣🤣🤣 LMA0. This is where I teach.
I promise you that Democrats are not losing Middlebury Vermont.
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How it started, how it’s going.
First-Gen Tenure Edition.
30 years ago, if you’d walked into that mobile home in central Alabama, you’d have found a 7-year-old with a bad stutter from a family in which no one had ever been to college. Today, I got tenure at a great college. 1/5
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I have all kinds of economic policy differences with the political left, but I’ll take them ANY DAY over the people who watch this video and root for the concertina wire.
Human freedom is my North Star.
These people crawling to freedom, these are my people.
On the U.S./Mexico border in Juarez we witnessed a Venezuelan family with a toddler going under the concerta wire to enter the El Paso illegally by placing cardboard on their backs to avoid being cut , the little girl can be heard crying as she goes under
@NewsNation
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I didn’t know much about Walz a month ago (just being honest). But as it became clear he was a major VP candidate, I looked more into him. I’m sure there will be areas where I disagree with him, but overall, I like what I see. 7/8
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Once again, for the people in the back, the United States is not a tribe. There is no such thing as “our people” in a blood and soil sense. Literally anyone from anywhere can become American. *That fact* is who WE are.
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Some on the left don’t *want* there to be a technological solution to climate change. They think people should live more simply + more equally and hope to use climate change to force people to do that.
Some on the right dislike literally anything like solar that’s left-coded. 1/3
Genuinely don’t understand how some people are still skeptical of solar
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Inflation is not entirely Biden’s fault. Many other countries are also struggling with inflation.
But there are a number of Biden administration policies that are making it worse.
A definitely non-exhaustive list. Thread 1/
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If a couple both worked at this pay rate full time, they’d have a household income of roughly $90,000.
Hot labor markets are so awesome!
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A perfect way of putting it.
Europeans think American food is hot dogs and casserole. Wrong.
The essence of American food is having greater access to global cuisine than any civilization ever.
One great cuisine vs *every* great cuisine. Not a difficult choice.
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These kinds of posts never, ever get old for me.
What an amazing country we have. 🇺🇸
Officially became a US citizen this week. 12 years to the day I first arrived in the country as a PhD student.
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The condo area I live in came out with a bunch of new rules today that basically amount to "No one with kids live here." I am so absolutely done with the Burlington area's busybody NIMBY culture and hostility to families and individual freedom. 1/
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The 5 states with the most homelessness are 5 of the 7 states with the most onerous land use regulations, i.e. the ones that make it the hardest to build new housing.
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Lot's of people are seeing this thread apparently.
I have nothing to sell any of you. I don't have a link for you to click.
But I hope you all have a nice weekend. Pour yourself some tea or coffee, take 5 minutes, and feel proud of yourself. You got this!
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People who want Social Security and Medicare to be solvent also wanting fewer immigrants.
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The Pizza Hut has been closed since 2011. It’s next to this torn up gas station. There’s literally nothing on this property adding value to the community at all. You’d think anything would be better than this right? Not according to the local development review board. 2/12
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Too bad.
Property rights end at the property’s edge and emphatically do not include viewscapes.
“Such and such changes the view” is a totally illegitimate argument that no one should take serious.
You do not get to freeze other peoples’ property in amber.
The Wynn Golf Club is one of the most expensive public-access courses in the country ($600+).
And now you must stare at a 366-foot tall and 516-foot wide fake eyeball while you play.
They can’t be happy about that.
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We have a breakthrough for Cystic Fibrosis. "A child born with CF in the ’50s could expect to live to 5. In the ’70s, age 10. In the early 2000s, age 35. With Trikafta...those who begin taking the drug in adolescence can expect to survive to age 82." 2/
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This is *not true*.
My dad was the most locally rooted blue collar Southern person you’ve ever met. Never lived outside a 15 mile radius in central Alabama. The guy loved Chinese food, tacos, and Indian lunch buffets. Lots and lots of non-elite Americans are like him.
@GaryWinslett
@scottlincicome
You’re talking about elites. Most Americans keep the diet Europeans think they do - burgers, fries, hot dogs, pizza, chick-fil-et
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The comments are in a tizzy arguing with it, but I want to focus on how good it is that he’s saying this.
This campaign is rejecting socialism, degrowth, and anti-business populism.
That’s a good thing.
Doug Emhoff says that Kamala Harris is "pro-capitalism, pro-business, pro-growth, and pro-innovation!"
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In the Middle Ages, some Christians would flagellate themselves in public to show off how devout they were.
In completely unrelated news there’s this headline from The NY Times yesterday…..
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At least in New England, I find it immoral that the Baby Boomers benefitted from their parent’s generation’s wise choice to build lots of new housing and then, instead of building on that legacy, turned into NIMBYs and then also convinced themselves that they’re the Lorax.
@CharlesWalton
Many Baby Boomers find it odd, & immoral, that many people live gratuitous consumer life styles whilst complaining about not owning a house. New cars, 2-3 foreign holidays a year, expensive food etc.
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You're not supposed to say this in today's Dem Party, but labor militancy is responsible for much of this. Unions didn't anticipate capital becoming more mobile. They thought they could drive a hard bargain. What they did was drive investment to right-to-work states in the South.
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The developers want to build 30 units w/ 6 of them (20%) being subsidized. That’s a very high level of subsidized units. The board wants that up to 10 (33%). It is all but impossible to make projects pencil at that rate. They’re not going to build if it’s unprofitable. 3/12
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They seem to genuinely believe that they, local govt, are doing business a favor by allowing them to develop property and the business needs to return some favors rather than seeing the developer as the bringer of growth and lifeblood of the community. It’s so backwards. 5/12
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This is *the perfect symbol* what parochial, hyper-regulatory, business-hostile, anti-change politics get you. If wanting a developer to be able to turn blight into housing + commerce makes me a neoliberal developer shill, then so be it, I’m a neoliberal developer shill. End/
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Good question. Here’s a short thread on the residency cap. In 1997, Congress capped the number of residency spots that Medicare would fund. This caused two problems. First, it created a bottleneck in the doctor pipeline.
@Noahpinion
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The National Association of Realtors just agreed to a nationwide settlement that’s going to usher in the biggest changes to how Americans buy and sell homes in decades and bring down fees for homebuyers. 3/
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This a great demonstration of 4 problems with our development politics here. 1) NIMBYs view any potential development not as a thing to be happy about but as an opportunity to squeeze the developer for whatever concessions can be wrung from them. 4/12
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One of the main drivers of anti-business populism is that a lot of people think businesses are making a lot more profit than they actually are.
The median firm has a 6.5% margin.
The average person think it's more than 5x(!) higher. 1/3
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@jdcmedlock
Love the rhetoric about return on investment. Investing in children is not just the right thing to do morally (obvs), it's great bang for taxpayer buck.
Also, so many tax/spend items will be up for renewal/renegotiation next year it's impossible to know what the pay-fors are.
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One of the interesting things here is that 23% of both parties say unemployment is a very big problem. Unemployment is under 4 percent and there are ‘help wanted’ signs *everywhere*.
What more do these people want?
New Pew poll: among Republicans, federal budget deficits biggest problem after inflation.
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Distributing malaria nets has saved millions of lives.
U.S. workers' job satisfaction is the highest it's been in decades.
LGBT acceptance continues to rise.
The govt. recently approved the first small-module nuclear reactor.
This "everything sucks" mentality is flat-out wrong.
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The world is getting both richer *and* more equal. I think that second part would shock some people on the political left. 5/
The world has become richer and more equal in recent decades
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@JoshuaPHilll
Capitalism didn't do that. Anti-development local government regulations did. This trend shouldn't make you lose faith in capitalism, it should make you lose faith in localism and government regulation.
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Real capitalism with a land value tax was tried once. It was Waikiki in Hawaii in the 60s. So much development happened- glorious!
Then Joni Mitchell visited, came up with “they paved paradise and put up a parking lot” and it’s been an anti-development battle cry ever since.
@GaryWinslett
@JoshuaPHilll
I kind of think "real capitalism has never been tried" is just as ridiculous as when they say the same about communism
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If you visualize the American workforce as 500 workers, roughly:
39 of them work in manufacturing,
24 of them in construction, and
8 of them in mining/agriculture/fishing combined.
So that’s 71 out of 500 workers in goods-producing jobs. The other 429 are in services. 1/5
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We’ve gotten a lot better at weather forecasting. This is not just a great convenience, in extreme cases it saves lives. 6/
Good news of the day:
We’ve gotten much better at weather forecasting.
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Third, there’s this ever-present busybody instinct to micromanage details. The board, for some reason, doesn’t like the idea of a drive-up ATM and that seemed to factor in here. Who cares? Like, why are you upset about a drive-up ATM? Why do you need a say in every detail? 7/12
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Fourth, this whole thing is a great example of the way we make the perfect the enemy of the good and so end up getting neither the perfect nor the good. Instead of housing and commercial space, we’re going to end up with a blighted Pizza Hut. Thanks NIMBYs! Great job. 8/12
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We never say to developers “thanks, we appreciate it.” The guy who wants to turn a blighted Pizza Hut into housing should be given a medal, not given grief.
We’re strangling our future rather than embracing capitalism. We’re choosing decline rather than celebrating growth. 11/12
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@AlecStapp
I’m going to feature data visualization as a skill set in my IPE class this fall much more heavily than I’ve done before.
That chart is making an appearance day 1. Always check the y-axis/axes first before you do anything else.
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Democrats should do this! Immediately.
Doing so would promote economic freedom and save consumers money.
It's the same logic as repealing the Jones Act and repealing Certificate-of-Need Laws and repealing parking minimums and cutting tariffs on Canadian lumber. 1/3
Mark my words: sometime in the next decade, Democrats are going to kick the tires on lifting the ban on direct-from-manufacturers sale of automobiles. It is going to create one of the bloodiest political fights in a long time
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JD Vance as VP.
Promises of rent control.
The pro-market center is getting overwhelmed by nationalism from the right and socialism from the left.
Tough time to be a liberal.
It’s a rough election cycle for suburban pro-market moderates.
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Some leftists want to hate everything that isn’t burn it all down nihilism or imaginary communism.
Show them a nice new apartment w/ amenities, they shout “No, that’s luxury housing gentrification!”
Show them cheap no frills housing and they shout “No, that’s pod exploitation!”
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Some people think about Rome or WWII all the time. For me, it’s the Industrial Revolution. This is when humanity started to get so much more prosperous. It changed everything!
One key, underappreciated background ingredient in that was the weakening of guilds. Let me explain. 1/
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India has made massive progress on eliminating extreme poverty. 7/
That is big news. New data and new method suggest India has practically eliminated extreme poverty
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Americans get killed by lightning far less commonly than we used to. 4/
It used to be way more common to be killed by lightning.
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One of the biggest problems the Democratic Party has is that it refuses to tell off the people in its coalition who want to pick the 9 bird nests.
We cannot be a society that builds and a society that allows every random critter to be a veto point. We have to choose.
What’s more important:
1) Connecting the entire world via telecommunications satellites & becoming an interplanetary species
Or
2) Protecting 9 bird nests in a tiny corner of Texas
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Second, you can see from the board’s comments that their attitude is “we call the shots, you meet them if you want to develop the property” and you can see that there’s this default assumption that every regulation must be good. Again, this isn’t development friendly at all. 6/12
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If you’re a developer, why would you want to deal with this nonsense? Why wouldn’t you just pack up and leave? And that’s exactly what so many of them do. Countless projects never even start because developers see this kind of thing and don’t want to have to deal with it. 9/12
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This field was supposed to have 155 houses in it. There aren’t any there and there never will be. The story of why tells you everything you need to know about why Vermont has a housing crisis and is the most unaffordable rural place in America. Thread. 1/
@GovPhilScott
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@jeffbograd
@jdcmedlock
I like Shapiro. I would have been fine with either pick.
I hope that wasn't the reason. And there's not a lot of political science evidence that VPs actually help in the home. We'll see on electoral impact.
Commentators below: don't be mean to Jeff. He's fine.
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We are getting a lot better at helping people with cataracts. 8/
It's been 5 years since I became a cyborg after having my defective eye lenses ripped out of my skull & replaced. I was functionally blind in one eye and going blind in other. 48 hours after robotic surgery, I had the vision of a hawk. Innovation FTW!
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The share of the world’s population living in extreme poverty has fallen substantially since 1981. (thanks neoliberalism!) 13/
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This is a common misconception about YIMBYs like me- that we have no theory of power in political economy. We actually do though. Or at least I do (I probably shouldn’t claim to speak for others).
Here’s my YIMBY theory of power. 1/
Supply essentialists, the people who tell us that simply building housing will solve our problems, are agnostic about power: who has it, who doesn’t, and how power sets the terms of the housing market. At best, naive. More likely, an intentional diversion to avoid regulation.
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It's not only the economics. Walz gets it on social policy too. Very cool story here. We can all prosper together and we can all be free together.
While Gov. Walz’s choice to sponsor his school’s GSA may not seem like a big deal now, things were *very* different 25 years ago. For context, 1999 was a year after Matthew Shephard’s murder and 4 years before Lawrence v Texas.
For gay people of my generation, this means a lot.
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There's a certain kind of person who's perpetually unimpressed. I'm kinda the opposite. To me, the world is wide and wild and wonderful and I want to see as much of it as I can. I never stop getting little joys out of all these things global society has to offer.
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@kevin_devereux
@AlecStapp
My experience with cops has been EXTREMELY uneven. I have a friend who’s a cop and I’ve had some pleasant interactions with police, but I also had a super unfair memorably negative run-in with a cop in college that has left me somewhat wary of them as a whole.
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Of all the good points here, I really want those closest to Biden to impress this one upon him.
“6. The moment Biden bows out, he will be treated as a hero among Democrats — a statesman who made the kind of country and party-first decision that Trump never would.”
Where things stand:
1. Top Dems who believed even a week ago Biden would stay now believe he’ll go.
2. House and Senate Dems have lost faith in his ability to win and there’s no way to win them back. His calls and interviews have hurt him badly. Confirmed debate wasn't a
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So we get more decline, more blight, young people + families + businesses leave, public disorder worsens, and taxes have to go up…. because we can’t stand the thought of not squeezing every last concession from every moment in which a developer wants to build something. 10/12
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They doubled tariffs on Canadian lumber. That makes building new homes more expensive. And they’ve put no energy into reforming the AD/CVD process that led to these tariffs. 2/
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I hereby nominate this for the worst tweet of the year 2024 bracket in that wacky but kinda malevolent way that all the truly worst tweets go. FTR: this is about Denmark enforcing pro-social behavior like paying your transit fare.
@JeremiahDJohns
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Last Friday, the Biden admin chose to make solar panels more expensive than they need to be.
Today, they chose to make steel, and thus everything US producers make with steel, more expensive than it needs to be.
While inflation is high.
That’s the long and short of it.
Thread. US-Japan announce an "EU-style" deal on steel imports, replacing Trump's "national security" tariffs with complicated "tariff rate quotas" that'll benefit some exporters/importers but keep US prices high.
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Baby formula shortages could be alleviated by less protectionism.
Housing shortages could be alleviated by less zoning.
Health care costs could be lowered with fewer certificate of need laws.
I’m begging Democrats to understand that *deregulation IS progressive!*
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The great enemy of the renter is not the landlord, it is the invisible graveyard of housing that a developer wanted to build but wasn’t allowed to.
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Sure, other than police unions protecting abusive cops, teachers unions keeping school closed during COVID, dockworker unions slowing productivity gains, industrial unions lobbying for protectionism that adds to inflation, and the many other times they’ve failed us.
Biden: "[Unions] have never, ever, ever, ever let the country down."
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I get frustrated with all of these attitudes. We’ve got an important problem and there’s an alleviation right in front of us that doesn’t require big political, social, or economic change. We can invent our way out of this problem. That’s awesome! Let’s do that. 3/3
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A few months ago, there was a huge new lithium discovery. This could be helpful for advancing battery production. 12/
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There are some very exciting advances in geothermal drilling happening right now. 9/
1/We
@fervoenergy
are excited to announce our new geothermal drilling results. We have achieved a 70% YoY reduction in drilling times, dramatically outpacing predictions, and are poised to unleash a new wave of geothermal decades ahead of schedule. THREAD.
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The Five-Over-One is the workhorse of dense, walkable, affordable market rate housing.
Except for NYC, wherever housing costs are too high, making it as easy as possible to build lots of these would be hugely helpful.
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The polling split between “should more people work in manufacturing?” And
“do you want to work in manufacturing?” is striking.
"Are US manufacturing jobs worth fighting for?"
(Spoiler: No.)
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I think it’s important that this article gets some push back because, if Democrats listen to it, they’re going to get housing policy reform wrong, to the detriment of many millions of Americans.
The solution to the housing shortage is.....to build more housing. 1/
In
@HarvardBiz
,
@brian_callaci
and I offer our thoughts on housing. The RealPage-orchestrated collusion among landlords shows we need a *lot* more than just upzoning to make decent and affordable housing universal.
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The U.S. dollar remains the world’s reserve currency, and that benefits both U.S. consumers and the United States centrality to the world order. 11/
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The perfect new bumper sticker for a trade professor.
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You’ve also got some people who don’t care about the environment as a lines on charts thing but as a ‘what can I see while I drive around’ thing and solar panels that alleviate a problem but change the viewscape are a net negative to them. 2/3
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With the FTC likely launching a lawsuit tomorrow aimed at breaking up Amazon Prime it's worth noting that A) 64% of voters are Prime members, B) 91% are satisfied C) voters wants govt to focus on other tech policy priorities, and D) ind. voters oppose a breakup by > 5-1 margin.
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They’ve put in place, or kept in place, tariffs on a range of other building materials as well. As
@scottlincicome
points out, many of these could be gotten rid of with a stroke of a pen. 3/
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For god in heaven’s sake. Moderna and Pfizer are the heroes of a global pandemic. They deserve every dollar they get. If this is what “corporate greed” looks like, please sign me up for lots more of it.
Moderna is planning to charge $130 for its COVID vaccine, but the vaccine only costs $2.85 to make.
Meanwhile, over the last two years, the company made over $19 billion in profits off the vaccine.
Folks, this is what corporate greed looks like.
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