🚨New paper in @NatureComms 🚨 We show that relative temperature extremes (TX90p) as used in many studies can be biased by as much as 50%! The bias arises from the use of too long seasonal windows and can easily be corrected. Details below 1/🧵 https://t.co/0MQzANAk3Z

Want to work with us? We are looking for *Postdocs in Climate Modeling and Data Science at ETH Zurich* to work on global climate models, analysis of model results, the intersection of climate scenarios and impacts, or machine learning/data science. https://t.co/bBhnXVHlRg

I'm thrilled to join @JanaSillmann s group @unihh in May! Looking forward to many new and exciting projects and collaborations 🥳 Huge thanks to @aikovoigt and the whole team @univienna for a great time and all the things I could learn! Very sad to leave 🫶

(How) can we show the skill of constraining future projections? Model-as-truth tests have been used in the past but only for individual methods. We develop an extensive & consistent testing framework and apply it to five (!) constraining methods. 1/🧵 https://t.co/lSYTiTVLqN

Many thanks to the entire team for this collaborative effort! In a sense, this study was a follow-up of earlier work comparing a similar set of methods but couldn't make statements about their skill. So it's really great to see this come together now! https://t.co/AzRPLBQA0v

Finally, we also apply all five methods and the multi-method to real observations and use them to constrain projections of European temperature changes between 1995-2014 and 2041-2060 👇👇 6/🧵

For precipitation and in winter method skill is much more of a mixed bag with only few consistent skill improvements compared to the unconstrained case. Constraining precipitation on a regional scale should therefore be treated with some caution. 👉 https://t.co/nyENqC9UXr 5/🧵

Main takeaway: for summer temperature changes the methods are very consistent even though they base their constraints on quite diverse information. Combining them into a multi-method constraint that can draw on all available information also shows quite some promise. 4/🧵

It was quite an effort to achieve a consistent comparison of five very different constraining methods using 125 (!!) pseudo-observational datasets. Huge thanks to Chris O'Reilly @horkesley for leading this!!🙏 See figure to get an idea of the amount of data involved. 3/🧵

The idea is simple: provide each participating group with historical CMIP6 model runs, serving as pseudo-observations used to constrain CMIP5 projections. The constrained distributions are then compared against the withheld "truths" in the future. 2/🧵

(How) can we show the skill of constraining future projections? Model-as-truth tests have been used in the past but only for individual methods. We develop an extensive & consistent testing framework and apply it to five (!) constraining methods. 1/🧵 https://t.co/lSYTiTVLqN

Und ich wurde mal wieder zum Meteorologen gemacht 🙈

Täglich an Hitzewellen und ihren Änderungen zu forschen macht es irgendwie abstrakt. Wenn ich dann darüber in der Zeitung lese wirds plötzlich wieder sehr real 🥵🥵🥵 (Studie von Philipp Aglas-Leitner in prep) https://t.co/MEhda7Tx42

Join us tomorrow for our session on global and regional climate modelling and model selection at #EGU24! https://t.co/vwyQyaSrOj

Oh. wow. #EGU24

If you're at #EGU24 you can hear me talk about this paper on Wednesday afternoon in session CL2.3: https://t.co/s7kujQLyA2 I've also uploaded the presentation as supplementary material if you can't join the talk. Also, feel free to reach out if there are any questions.

Heute wird der 24. Klimatag des @_CCCA_ an der @tu_wien eröffnet. Ich freue mich auf den fachlichen Austausch, auf die vielen neuen Forschungsergebnisse und auf neue überraschende Erkenntnisse. #WissenSchaftKlimaschutz #Klimatag #Klimakrise #Klimawandel

🚨New paper in @NatureComms 🚨 We show that relative temperature extremes (TX90p) as used in many studies can be biased by as much as 50%! The bias arises from the use of too long seasonal windows and can easily be corrected. Details below 1/🧵 https://t.co/0MQzANAk3Z

Stark warning of things to come if we don't act more quickly and decisively on the climate crisis! Although it probably doesn't change much it'd be good not to use a 15-day running seasonal window w/o correction as we recently showed in @NatureComms 👇 https://t.co/O3edQabBab

We are looking for a senior scientist to join our Climate Dynamics and Modeling team @univienna. The position can lead to permanent employment and offers ample opportunities to develop an independent research program. Application deadline: April 15. https://t.co/YfiTi7vWwC

Really great opportunity to get out of your bubble, to have a ton of interesting conversations, to discuss the future of Europe and the world, and to enjoy the Tyrolean mountains of course 😊