lucian
@lcnxyz
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founder, ceo @sportstensor @almanac_market - incentivizing truth in prediction markets.
Joined December 2023
Accidentally said “odds” instead of “probabilities” and they kicked me out of prediction markets
Accidentally said "hard" instead of "non-trivial" and they kicked me out of SF
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Incentives + skin in the game = better accuracy
i was the guy MM’ing the economics desk at kalshi for years. you’d be shocked at how little liquidity is actually needed to make economic indicator markets, like CPI, incredibly sharp. i spent a lot of time and energy on my CPI model, and yet i’d regularly get my ass beat by
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NBA season is coming 🏀👀
Sportstensor NBA 2024–2025 Trading Report is live. This report reveals the performance of our subnet intelligence over a three-month period. Included is our tracking spreadsheet and @Polymarket account link, used to place and cryptographically verify each trade.
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Riffing with the great @markjeffrey on @sportstensor and @almanac_market. This was an absolute pleasure!
Hash Rate - Ep 137: SportsTensor Subnet 41 🧙 Guest: @lcnxyz of @sportstensor 00:00 Introduction to SportsTensor 08:59 User Experience and Account Setup 11:55 Incentives for Miners and Non-Miners 15:00 Partnership with @Polymarket 18:58 The Importance of Accurate Predictions
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Eventually, we'll lead in sports computer vision and give all of the data away. Democratizing data improves the odds.
Our progress on computer vision tech to democratize and annotate sports video data for accurate predictions, continues thanks to @skalskip92. Next step is sourcing and building an improved dataset to continue training the cv models for better accuracy and number (object)
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looks like it’s going to be a big week for builders on bittensor and prediction markets! if only there was a company that was both… @sportstensor
monday mindshare: - biggest winner: AI, led by bittensor and erc-8004 - strong week for prediction markets with huge raises, polymarket us app and limitless kaito round - honorable mention: RWAs, up ~40% in a week - biggest losers: DeFi and ZK
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Whats the difference between this and the Nobel Peace Prize?
SOMEONE JUST OPENED A #BITCOIN SHORT 30 MINS BEFORE TRUMP'S TARIFF ANNOUNCEMENT AND JUST CLOSED WITH $88,000,000 PROFIT HE OPENED THIS ACCOUNT TODAY 👀
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Had fun chatting with one of the most respected OGs of Bittensor. Hear me ramble on about prediction markets and what we’re doing to change the game.
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No matter what anyone says, this is an incredible feat for any company. Big congrats to the Kalshi team. Not to mention 140+ countries! $100B volume incoming.
Kalshi recently raised $300M+ at $5B from Sequoia, a16z, Paradigm and others. Since then, we've grown over 3x, hit $50B of annualized volume, and became the largest prediction market in the world. And today…Kalshi goes global. 140+ countries. 1 liquidity pool.
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Guy is on fire lately
People have been asking me “Jake why are there all these AI videos of you on the internet?!” There’s a method to the madness… I’m a proud OpenAI investor @antifundvc @geoffreywoo and have been advising Sora team @markchen90 @billpeeb this year and agreed to become the first
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Talking incentive mechanisms, prediction markets and what the hell @covenant_ai actually does. Should be fun!
The wait is almost over. Last week's TGIF with @sportstensor got postponed, but tomorrow it's happening. Pretty sure. It's a good bet. @covenant_ai's @DistStateAndMe will be chatting with @lcnxyz and @neuromancer_t about what they're building—and they just announced a strategic
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Tip for founders, have conviction in what you build. If you say you're doing X, don't try Y, nor Z... Do X. Deliver X. If you can't focus, you can't win. I'm rooting for you.
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@balajis The article: https://t.co/Q3aqAMlo35 Bittensor:
bittensor.com
Internet-scale machine learning
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The parlay crown goes to @1confirmation for doubling down on conviction in every single round @Polymarket has ever had.
Also, I’d like to share the prior two rounds which were never announced. Earlier this year, Founders Fund led a $150m round into Polymarket, valuing us at $1.2b. Also in this round was Ribbit, Valor, Point72 Ventures, SV Angel, 1789, 1confirmation, Blockchain Capital, Coinbase,
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This is the second time @jakepaul has shown up on my feed on the cap table of a mega raise… maybe he’s more than meets the eye?
Congrats Shayne - an awesome guy who deserves the success At @antifundvc we’re proud to have invested in the Polymarket 2021 series A Liquidity in prediction markets and financialization of world events is a powerful tool to better understand the world and to have some fun
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Polymarket’s roots will run deep into the world’s financial system
[ ZOOMER ] NYSE TO PARTNER WITH POLYMARKET ON FUTURE TOKENISATION INITITIATIVES: RTRS
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Did @semajeth just get invalidated? 😂
[ ZOOMER ] CITADEL LOOKING TO EXPLORE PREDICTION MARKETS ACCORDING TO BLOOMBERG: SYNOPTIC
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The biggest @Kalshi partnership ever? Atleast unofficially, Kalshi has done wonders for Taylor Swift and her new album "The Life of a Showgirl". Markets about Taylor has since brought millions in volume and converting your favourite pm trader into a Swiftie. Is this the start
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Also shout out to @AndrewY_SX for bringing this very issue up before as well.
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