Adhi Rajaprabhakaran
@eightyhi
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predictionpilled marketcel with a newsletter and podcast | prev. @kalshi | abolish p*ckleball
brooklyn
Joined November 2019
New on 50¢ Dollars! @Nostroah, former Head of Operations at Kalshi, opines on how to break into the extremely white-hot space of prediction markets. This is a must-read for anyone on the outside looking in.
Just dropped the most practical guide you’ll read this year if you want to break into the white-hot prediction market industry. I went from 2023 college grad to the Head of Operations at @Kalshi in <3 years. People now blow up my LinkedIn weekly asking how to get in. 🧵
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this will go underreported in the daily drumbeat of prediction market news/partnerships/legal, but I think it's a massive deal. PM news falls into two categories: 1. doesn't affect order flow or liquidity (this doesn't matter) 2. does affect order flow or liquidity (the only
KALSHI LAUNCHES TOKENIZED EVENT CONTRACTS ON SOLANA: CNBC
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I try to avoid engaging with stupid lies on X, but this is a pure smear campaign. This account, and others, are being paid by our competitor to amplify a baseless lawsuit. The allegations are false and reveal a fundamental (and maybe intentional) misunderstanding of how these
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Jannik Sinner is my peer. I wrote an explanation of Kalshi's market structure that the plaintiffs might find useful to educate themselves. Link below.
Whichever lawyer(s) drafted this up did not do enough research into Kalshi. There are many holes in this that make their case extremely inaccurate. For example, point number 56 is objectively false and proves the plaintiff does not understand what they are writing about.
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Whichever lawyer(s) drafted this up did not do enough research into Kalshi. There are many holes in this that make their case extremely inaccurate. For example, point number 56 is objectively false and proves the plaintiff does not understand what they are writing about.
NEW: Kalshi has been hit with a nationwide class action lawsuit in the SDNY for operating an illegal online sports betting platform and for "duping" customers into believing that they are legally gambling against other consumers when they are actually gambling against the house.
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when will @RobinhoodApp clear their first native-DCM prediction market trade?
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Now's a good a time ever to bump my first ever 50CD substack post, from July. This @CFTC is easier to work with than the last. Poly getting intermediation in 4 months is a testament to that. IMHO, his piece rings true for all of CME/Fanduel, DK/Railbird, RH, etc. Let's see!
In the wake of all of the big prediction exchange news - @RailbirdHQ getting regulated and potentially acquired by @DKSportsbook, @Polymarket buying their regulation, I share some thoughts on what it takes to run a regulated exchange and the challenges the new entrants face.
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In a single day: 1. Polymarket gets FCM integration 2. Robinhood buys a DCM with SIG 3. Nevada judge rules against Kalshi super fun, very cool
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incredible analysis from Alfonso. he might be the only person in the world who has had three distinct careers in sports betting, junk bond trading, and equities coverage. he brings the sum of that experience to his work!
So every week Wall Street analysts will eagerly await for New York to release their weekly report for sports betting, as the hold percentages serve as an early look for how operators performed, which in turn helps them update their views/forecast for the quarter. Problem is
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to me, the most interesting part of her letter is that she explicitly leans on a political forecast in her decision making. she sees: 1. GOP loses the house (73% chance) 2. Trump impeached again (52% chance) this is what these markets are all about.
It is funny that MTG became more normal and principled and immediately decided Congress was not the place for her
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link to podcast streaming: https://t.co/LZnUbEHOpc link to youtube:
50-cent-dollars.castos.com
In this conversation, Adhi Rajaprabhakaran and Gary DeWaal explore the evolution of prediction markets, the impact of technology on trading, and the role of regulation in shaping these markets. They...
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Episode 2 of the 50¢ Dollars Podcast is out! I dive deep into the pre-history of the CFTC with Gary DeWaal, a longtime derivatives lawyer. we cover: - derivatives before the CFTC and even computers - the early days of event contracts - pushing the limits of self-certification -
"This product is going to help the WORLD" Episode 2 of 50 Cent Dollars by @eightyhi is live. Watch the full interview with Gary DeWaal below.
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so many “how do i short prediction markets” tweets recently. here is how! get in touch!
@eightyhi I'd put up to $50k on this bet, same side as Adhi
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