Adhi Rajaprabhakaran
@eightyhi
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author of "50¢ Dollars", a newsletter about prediction markets | abolish p*ckleball | 1 of 50 @BLS_gov "super-users” | prev. @kalshi @indeed @zillow
brooklyn
Joined November 2019
This morning, @DraftKings and @FanDuel's most profitable product line is at risk. @Kalshi just filed to list player props and spreads on a regulated exchange - it everything for sports betting economics. And the @CFTC has just 24 hours to do something about it. 🧵
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IMHO, an IB will make some money in the short term but they won't have much strategic leverage or pricing power, the levers you need to create billions in enterprise value. still though, it's better than nothing.
this is the first step towards becoming either a Introducing Broker (IB) or a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM). in the prediction market trading ecosystem, both roles basically act as an intermediary between a customer and the exchange. it's not a direct competition with an.
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this is the first step towards becoming either a Introducing Broker (IB) or a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM). in the prediction market trading ecosystem, both roles basically act as an intermediary between a customer and the exchange. it's not a direct competition with an.
DraftKings has submitted a new application to join the National Futures Association (NFA) – a key early step toward entering the world of prediction markets – while Underdog and PrizePicks have submitted applications of their own.
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the math in my model changes drastically the more I put into the >+25000 bucket. so I want to make sure I'm somewhat close to what reality is!.
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question for a piece I'm working on:. approximately, what does the distribution of odds on parlay bets look like?. right now I'm going off of this. is this in the right ballpark?
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databricks IPO odds just crashed on the “Series K” news 😮💨
We’re excited to announce that Databricks is raising a Series K investment that values the company at >$100 billion. We’ll use this new capital to accelerate our AI offerings for customers, including expanding Agent Bricks and investing in our new database offering, Lakebase.
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despite robinhood’s best efforts to keep this a secret, i’ll spill:. robinhood prediction markets IS kalshi underneath!. RH refuses to acknowledge kalshi, and understandably - they wouldn’t want customers to know they can cut their fees by half if they moved to kalshi.
@ButlerBets Prediction markets entering their final form. Robinhood + Kalshi back to back?.New era loading.
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apparently sinner used this himself.
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personally, I will be ripping Lebron James rebounds over 2.5 with Taylor Swift grammy count over 3.5. good luck, market makers. the depths of this alpha is unimaginable.
I can’t fucking wait to parlay together Cam Ward over 1.5 passing touchdowns and the temperature in Denver Colorado that Sunday to be under 94°.
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RT @astraffon: Morning peeps. y'all may want to read this thread. seems rather important. @Kalshi looking to step up their sports bet….
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yes, the microstructure of CFTC exchanges necessitates full cash collateralization on every trade. means that true product-parity (pick-your-own parlay) will be difficult. kalshi will likely have to stick with pre-made parlays early on as they find their footing. but there are.
fwiw I think @eightyhi 's newsletter is the best ~newsletter there is on prediction markets, but this seems like wishcasting. An SGP product that complies with prediction market liquidity requirements that is product parity w.r.t. to FD/DK is trivial? .
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This could reshape the entire sports betting ecosystem write large.
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This move targets the fattest margins in sports betting. Here's what's at stake:
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At 8:15 AM this morning, Kalshi filed three crucial product certifications.
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I was just trying to be helpful 😿
Prediction markets can’t “push” like regular sportsbooks. Bettors coming from traditional OSB need to take the time to understand why, and exchanges like @Kalshi need to get better at explaining it. The market mechanisms (open order book + real-time clearing) that make exchange.
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