Jake Werner
@jwdwerner
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Historian, director of the East Asia Program @QuincyInst. US–China relations and the global economy
Joined July 2015
Biden’s attempt to restrict China’s power failed, leaving the US weaker and the world a more dangerous place. But much of the foreign policy world still yearns for an irreversible escalatory spiral. For @RStatecraft, I ask whether Trump can break with it.
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Though DC portrayals of China’s aims were far off the mark, they squarely describe Trump’s approach. Here’s my take right before Liberation Day. The question—still in play—is whether Trump accepts the DC portrayal of China and so miscalculates how to relate to Xi.
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An important contrast from @lpolgreen, calling into question basic assumptions driving the US foreign policy establishment. But instead of self-reflection, we’ve mostly seen denial, defensiveness, and compensatory fantasies of geopolitical bloc formation. https://t.co/DagUWT3zhM
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A soft goodbye to 'What's on Weibo' and a new hello to 'Eye on Digital China'!🔎🇨🇳 China’s social media landscape has drastically changed since I started my website in 2013, which was born out of a simple curiosity: What is on Weibo? At the time, I felt that much of the
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My discussion with @BrankoMilan happening in one hour! His new book "The Great Global Transformation" is incredibly rich, addressing everything from income shifts within countries to the new multipolar world order to great power conflicts. Should be a great discussion!
The "Washington Consensus" on global trade is dead. What comes next as nationalism and geoeconomic conflict take center stage? Join QI's @MarcusMStanley in conversation with @BrankoMilan to confront the future of the world economy. https://t.co/amhndbHXEz
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Today is the day—The Trillion Dollar War Machine is out! Pick up your copy at the link in bio or below 👇
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On Nov 14 at 2PM EST @QuincyInst will host a webinar on future of N. American Integration featuring @helper_susan (former Chief Econ at Commerce), @Arturo_Sarukhan (former MX ambassador to US) and @FlavioVolpe1 (Prez CA auto parts manuf assn). Join us!!!
quincyinst.org
We discuss the future of the USMCA.
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The White House has shared photos of Donald Trump and Xi Jinping’s first face-to-face meeting in more than six years, including this intriguing sequence. h/t @ByChunHan
https://t.co/r8LBbIa0i3
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The applied rate might seem more meaningful than the headline rate. But as seen here, a significant gap between them reflects a steep headline rate extinguishing trade. The headline rate then remains more relevant, but not in a way that is quantifiable. https://t.co/hfe4qFfZE4
But the 25% tariff reduced trade in those products a lot -- by roughly 50%, so $250 became $125b or so (and now less with the extra term 2 tariffs) ... so the average pre term 2 applied tariff rate was around 10% 6/
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This thread is instructive on how messy the tariff landscape is now. It makes both headline rates and effective applied rates not just meaningless but misleading for use as an indication when looking across countries or sectors.
There needs to be a better consensus number for the tariff on China. The effective tariff rate (Tariff paid/ imports) was 37-38% in July and August. It should fall to under 30% with the recent deal. 1/
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Two big questions now: 1) Will Trump rein in the hawks in his admin who are constantly undoing each truce, so genuine negotiations can finally commence? 2) When will China act against the China exclusion measures the US is forcing on third countries? https://t.co/GLB04XMP1v 2/2
ft.com
US Treasury secretary says Beijing can no longer use its critical minerals as a coercive tool
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A positive interview from Bessent, who says the US and China have reached an “equilibrium”. But he’s misrepresenting here. China put the gun on the table in Dec, after Biden ignored Xi’s warning at the G20. The Trump team’s overconfidence forced China to go further. 1/2
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The lesson of this episode is not that export controls are good and that Trump is bad. It is that the U.S. export control regime and China's escalating responses to it were incompatible with a healthy global economy. The two countries therefore have to find another path. Ideally
Here’s another way Trump’s “deal” with China was a disaster. He negotiated away export controls that his own experts had said were critical to protecting our national security. China got exactly what it wanted. So much for America First.
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In other words, prepare for (1) China to retaliate tit-for-tat anytime the U.S. take a punitive action, (2) Beijing won't roll back this set of controls and you can bet China has studied plenty of other potential leverage points besides magnets and will be developing control
Bessent: China said they were going to put a rare-earth licensing regim on the entire world. And President Trump as the leader of the free world got this delayed by one year. Ingraham: What happens after one year? Bessent: We’ll be back at the table and we’ll get another
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I’m incredibly excited to announce that I’ve joined Brookings as a fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center @BrookingsChina where I’ll focus on Chinese tech.
brookings.edu
Fellow Kyle Chan discusses his experiences and career researching China’s technological development in a Q&A.
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An easy hit but the framing doesn’t hold up. Under Biden, China warned with growing urgency it was preparing to fight back against US econ warfare. A Harris admin would have faced the same choice: accept a ceasefire or escalate to open conflict. Does Murphy want open conflict?
Trump bungled China policy so badly he had to run to Xi to beg forgiveness and surrender. Everyone knows it. In the "deal", America gets nothing, not even a return to status quo. Trump has now totally abandoned his promise to "get tough" on China. https://t.co/LmUVWN8g5a
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Trump and Xi were able to agree on key demands today in S.Korea, which is important for Trump, who needs and seems to want to get away from the unproductive if not dangerous approach to China of Biden and even his own first admin. @jwdwerner
responsiblestatecraft.org
In a much anticipated meeting, the American president and Xi Jinping agree to deescalate on tariffs, rare earth restrictions
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The US built a system of weaponized interdependence to coerce the world. China is now building its own. The US reduces the damage it does to China through its system. China does the same. Not one side standing down but reciprocity that comes from credible threats on both sides.
If true, seems we are effectively going to dismantle the export control regime on AI chips just as Beijing builds out its regime on rare earth minerals and magnets.
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The one year suspension of Commerce 50 Percent Rule in exchange for a similar delay in MOFCOM October 9 REE rules proves 1) the MOFCOM rules were a direct response to Commerce rule, 2) MOFCOM rules were not an escalation but a logical response to broader set of US controls,
China to Suspend Some Export Curbs as Trump Cuts Fentanyl Tariffs The US side will suspend for one year the implementation of the “50% rule” for export controls announced on Sept. 29, according to the Chinese statement. Somebody read my Substack!
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Already one major breakthrough from the Trump–Xi meeting: We now have stock photos from THIS DECADE to illustrate our op-eds on US–China relations!
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