John Raymond Hanger
@johnrhanger
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Climate, Energy & Electricity Policy. Support competitive markets & climate action. Former PA PUC Commissioner, PA DEP Secretary, Policy Secretary. Penn Law '84
Joined April 2011
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Down 50%! World's largest battery maker will cut battery costs 50% in 2024!
Price of 60 kWh battery pack will fall from $6,776 to just $3,388 in only 12 months, saving over $3,000 per vehicle.
ICE is done, with length of the funeral only uncertainty.
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Good morning with good news: Kansas has moved from 100% fossil fuel electricity generation in November 2003 to just 16% in April 2023. Twenty years to clean up. Iowa was even lower at 13% in April. Generation in KS, IA & VT was more than 80% non-fossil fuel in April.
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Good morning with good news: Solar and wind were 92% of India's generation additions in 2022. It deployed as much solar in 2022 as the UK has ever built. Coal also was down 78%.
India's large wind & solar additions are vital climate action. Wonderful!
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Wow! The world in which we all live will invest more in solar than in oil, for the first time ever, in 2023. The energy world is rapidly changing, but I'm pinching myself writing this news. Who says it? IEA, in its just released report:
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Good morning with good news: USA will smash its solar deployment record in 2024, installing ~46 GW! That is 5X solar installed in 2019 and nearly double 2022 level. Wow!
US solar additions:
2019 9GW
2020 15GW
2021 19GW
2022 18GW
2023 26GW
2024 ~46GW
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Good morning with good news: China's CO2 emissions are likely peaking this year, with long-term decline starting in 2024. That's seven years ahead of China's 2030 target to reach peak emissions! Peak Chinese CO2 is vital for climate action. Now Downward!
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ICE vehicles caught fire 20 times more frequently than EVs in Sweden during 2022! This won't stop the Bash-EV-Gang from burning truth. But EVs are much lower fire risk than ICE vehicles!
Petrol and diesel cars 20 times more likely to catch fire than EVs
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Good morning with good news: US will double battery storage in 2024! The US battery storage boom will add 15.5 GWs in 2024. Batteries will jump from 15.4 GW to 30.9 GW in one year!
Battery boom is much bigger than the AI demand "surge" of ~18 GW by 2030.
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Good morning with good news: An historic first from the EU, where solar generated more electricity than coal for the entire EU during May, 2023! Also, new EU solar installations leaped 34% in 2022, an otherwise challenging year.
Credit
@EmberClimate
and
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Good morning with good news: There is a 70% chance global CO2 emissions start falling in 2024 says research by Climate Analytics. Wind & solar growth could peak coal in 2023 and gas in 2024. EV growth may cause peak oil in 2025.
50 countries peaked total GHG emissions by 2015!
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Good: "The country’s implied gasoline consumption has fallen to more than 200,000 barrels a day below seasonal norms while supply has increased." But why?
~4 million EV autos on road & growing numbers of electric bikes. EVs grow too by ~115k/month.
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US per capita gasoline consumption is down 15% from 2003. What about total gasoline consumption? In 2023, it was at 2003 levels. US EV fleet grew ~1.4 million in 2023, and the number of new EVs sold in 2024 will be even higher. US gasoline consumption is in structural decline!
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Good morning with good news: Renewable energy generated 73% of Portugal's electricity in 2023. The Whole Year!
FFs are down to 27%, plunging from 61% in 2017. Coal is 0%; gas 24%.
Wind generated 29.5%. Solar 10.2%. Hydro 24.5%. Bioenergy 8.2%. Wonderful!
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Good morning with good news: New solar is cheaper than running existing coal at nearly all US coal plants, even assuming solar is built near each coal plant. Median cost of new solar is $24/MWh, while median marginal cost of coal is $36/MWh.
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US energy related CO2 emissions are nearly back to 1973 levels (~3% above 1973). For years, many right-wingers and fossil fuel interests said cutting carbon emissions means shrinking the economy. Nope!
US economy grew 60% since 2000 as CO2 emissions fall to nearly 1973 levels.
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UK has had an energy revolution in just 5 years! Coal down from 42% to 7%. Renewables up to 23% from 10% in JUST 5 years. Non-fossil fuel generation up to 47% from 30%. Gas has jumped too but is now the carbon reduction target in UK power sector. Will UK now get off gas bridge?
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Good morning with good news: US coal generation fell 28% during first half of 2023, compared to first 6 months of 2022! Coal generated just 15% of US electricity for January to June 2023. It is dying rapidly now. First coal. Then gas!
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Good morning with good news: US solar generation will skyrocket 43% in 2024 says EIA! Wow!
That's production, not capacity.
Solar will generate more than hydro in 2024 and more than coal by ~2026!
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Less Than $10,000!
"BYD launches cheaper Seagull electric car with starting price under $10,000 to fuel price war."
BYD declares war on ICE and oil, proclaiming "electricity is cheaper than oil." Legacy ICE automakers are rapidly running out of time.
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Good morning with good news: Ground was broken yesterday on the Sunzia 550-mile transmission line that will connect 3.5 GW of wind being built in New Mexico to customers in Arizona and California. It's described as largest RE project in USA.
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Good morning with good news: USA's carbon emissions are down 5% in 2023 through May, compared to same period in 2022! Plummeting coal burning is the main reason. Coal CO2 emissions are down ~30%. Gas and oil CO2 emissions are also down slightly. EIA data:
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Good morning with good news: Battery storage Investment globally doubled in 2022 and will jump ~80% in 2023. Investment more than doubles in USA from $6 billion in 2022 to $13 billion in 2023. Batteries are keys for reliability and RE grid integration.
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Good morning with good news: "For every doubling of deployment, battery costs have fallen by 19%. Couple these cost declines with density gains of 7% for every deployment doubling and batteries are the fastest-improving clean energy technology." Wonderful!
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Good morning with good news: US utility scale solar (up 150%) and battery storage (up 130%) absolutely skyrocket!
Utility scale solar adds 36.3 GW from Nov. 2023 to Oct. 2024, compared to 14.7 GW in prior 12 months.
Batteries add 12.3 GW, compared 5.3 GW. Wow!
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Good morning with good news: Global sales of gas-powered vehicle sales peaked in 2017, dropped every year since 2017, and are down 23% from peak.
EVs were 20% of global auto sales and 35% of sales in China in Q4 2023. Global EV spending rose 36% in 2023.
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Good morning with good news: Norway's gasoline consumption fell 37% from 2013-2021. Sales of EVs grew from 3% in 2012 to 80% in 2022. EVs are more than a fifth of Norway's auto fleet, with EVs accounting for 23% of miles driven. EVs have begun to eat oil.
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Good morning with good news: Growth of battery sales is following an S curve, growing 33% to 40% per year. Sales double in ~2 years.
Why exponential growth? Battery costs are down 99% and density of cells has improved 5X in 30 years! VTH/VTG will be big!
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Good morning with good news: Reaching an historic milestone, wind & solar generated more electricity in the EU for an entire month than fossil fuels! That happened in May. Zero-carbon generated ~73% & fossil fuels just 27%. Coal fell to 10%, a record low.
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Solar, batteries & wind/RE dominate (99.6%) US net capacity additions in next 12 months.
New utility scale solar skyrockets to 36GW, up ~150% compared to past 12 months.
Batteries add 12.3GW, up from 5.4GW.
Onshore wind adds 6.6GW & Offshore wind 2.1GW
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Good morning with good news: Solar skyrockets in Nigeria, after big subsidies for gasoline and diesel were ended. BNEF says solar capacity now will triple to 1.6 GW within a year. Nigeria may use off-grid solar to "build grid-scale volumes."
@solar_chase
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Good morning with good news: Spain is nearing 100% clean and Sweden is there!
Spain was 78%, 84% and 85% clean respectively in January, February and March 2024.
Spain and Sweden use wind, solar, hydro and nuclear to eliminate fossil fuel electricity.
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Huge: USA's largest solar plus battery storage plant comes online in California! This giant is 875 MW solar plus 3.3 GWh storage. Total financing for the project is $1.7 billion, and it's located partly on Department of Defense land. Huge is wonderful!
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Stunning!
"Instead of rebuilding or reconductoring two 230-kV lines, PPL spent less than $300,000 installing sensors on the lines..," saving "about $50 million in costs and immediately started saving about $20 million in annual congestion costs."
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Good morning with good news: Solar efficiency improved 38% since 2012, while prices fell 89%.
Solar efficiency jumped from 16.8% in 2018 to 21.3% in 2023!
Better & cheaper: That's why solar dominates new generation globally & in US!
Credit
@NatBullard
&
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Rapid decarbonization! Thanks to wind and solar the Netherlands is rapidly decarbonizing its electricity.
It increased the share of wind and solar from ~8% in 2015 to 41% in 2023! Wind was 24% and solar ~17%.
A Five Times increase in eight years. Wow!
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Good morning with good news: Energy storage is skyrocketing globally. BNEF says it will increase 14.5 times by 2030. To be on a Net Zero pace, it needs to increase by about 10% to a 16.1x rise. Energy storage is vital to integrating booming solar and wind generation into grids.
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Good morning with good news: Solar was 78.5% and wind 20.3% of new US utility-scale capacity in January & February 2024. RE dominance in 2024 to date.
Solar has provided the most new generating capacity in US for six straight months thru February 2024.
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Amazing Spain! Spain slashed its carbon emissions 33% from electricity in 2019, compared to 2018. Renewables supplied 36.8%. Nuclear about 21.8%. Coal cut to 5%. Spain had set 2030 as date to be coal free. | In English | EL PAÍS
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Musk takes advice from "right wing trolls," including those who praise Hitler and who spread election & vaccine lies. Musks picks fights with Senators Warren, Sanders, Markey & Pelosi. He endorses Rs, predicting Red Wave. He is another FOX News.
@elonmusk
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History made: Germany will cross the 50% renewable generation milestone for a full year in 2023. Wind and solar are ~39% of Germany's electricity.
Germany's goal is 80% RE by 2030. Tough but doable. If not in 2030, Germany will be 80% RE soon after.
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Corolla killer: “The new BYD Qin Plus EV is the car that makes EVs way cheaper than ICE vehicles and blows open the mainstream market,”
How much? $15,000!
“Corolla killer:” BYD launches $15,000 EV in direct attack on legacy makers
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EVs slash energy demand!
Say a country burned equivalent of 1,000 TWh of gasoline for road transport.
Do you need 1,000 TWh of electricity to replace gasoline cars with electric ones? Nope!
You might need as little as 224 TWh. Four to five times less.
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Good morning with good news: Pinch yourself. China will increase its solar capacity by 3x; USA by ~3x; India by 3x; Spain by ~4x from 2023-2027. China jumps 872 GWs and USA rises 252 GWs. That's the medium scenario in just released Solar Europe report.
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Good morning with good news: Norway's data indicates EVs "fail at a lower rate than gas cars in extreme cold."
EVs are 25% of cars in Norway. In a recent cold snap, 13% of cars unable to start were EV. For 2024 so far, 21% of cars unable to start were EV.
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Good morning with good news: Thirty-one nations pass 5% market share for fully electric vehicles, the tipping point for mass adoption!
Examples are Australia 9.5%; Thailand 12.6%; Turkey 12%.
Chart is partial list, BEVs, no PHEVs. EV adoption is global!
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Good morning with good news: Solar will install globally ~344 GW in 2023, up 37% from 2022. It may break 400 GW mark in 2024. Solar additions from 2024-2028 likely generate electricity equivalent to about US 2022 total. We are witnessing an historic energy revolution. Wonderful!
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Good morning with good news: CATL is selling an EV battery with a guarantee for 1.5 million kilometers (932,056 miles) and 15 years. The lithium iron phosphate battery will operate in buses, light trucks and heavy trucks. Wow!
Battery innovation is huge!
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Wow!
@HannahRitchie
shows converting all UK transportation to electricity vehicles powered by wind and solar generated electricity cuts total energy demand consumed by transportation by ~73%. This example exposes the Primary Energy fallacy!
H/T
@Stockfttp
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Good morning with good news: Solar and wind deployed combined new capacity of more than ~520 GW in 2023! Solar likely exceeded 413 GW.
In 2024, wind and solar will break their huge 2023 records, with more than 600 GW likely. Why?
They're lowest cost!
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Good morning with good news: Fossil fuel generated electricity in EU fell to 28% in February 2024 from 38% in February 2023! Coal plunged to 10.6%!
Fossil Fuel % is:
February 2017 49%
Februaty 2019 40%
February 2022 35%
February 2023 38%
February 2024 28%
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Good morning with good news: Solar is booming in India, and that's vital climate action! A new record of 16-17 GW may be added this fiscal year, breaking last year's record of 12.78 GW. India's total generation capacity is ~416 GW, with solar at 72 GW.
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EV bashers screamed the world did not have enough Lithium to supply the EV transition. Wrong again! Supplies are actually way up, and price is down 80%.
Also, USA has enough Lithium in just the Salton Sea to supply 375 million EVs, says the LBNL!
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Good morning with good news: Europe's largest solar farm (605 MW) is now operating. Built on coal mine land, the German plant pushes to 2nd a Spanish 500 MW PV plant.
Solar generated 13.6% of Germany's March 2024 electricity, up from 8.5% in March 2023.
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Good morning with good news: Polysilicon prices keep falling, whether manufactured in China or outside it. They're recently down about 7% to 20%. Cheaper solar is ahead. This is good climate and energy news for all but those opposed to renewables.
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By 2017, USA had a total of 41 GW of solar. Now, in the next 12 months, USA will build about another 41 GW.
US solar capacity in 2014 was 15.9 GW.
US solar capacity in 2022 was 110 GW.
US solar capacity by April 2024 ~158 GW.
USA solar boom!
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Spain's electricity keeps getting cleaner: For all of January 2024, it generated 78% of its electricity from renewables (54%) and nuclear (24%), Wind was Spain's top source of electricity at 26.5%.
What about fossil fuels? Down to 22%! Spain's economy ranks 15th globally.
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Good morning with good news: "China's carbon emissions set to fall in 2024 after record clean energy growth." Even better, if the record deployment of clean energy (solar, wind and nuclear} continues, China's CO2 emissions will be in structural decline.
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Good morning with good news: US battery storage capacity skyrocketed 53.3% in Q3 2023, compared to Q3 2022! Solar is often built with batteries.
Prices of key battery materials, lithium carbonate & hydroxide, dropped 70% and 72% respectively, in 2023.
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Good morning with good news: 14 states generated 30% or more of their electricity in 2022 from wind, solar and geothermal!
IA 83%
SD 77%
KS 70%
ND 65%
WY 62%
NM 62%
OK 54%
NE 38%
NV 37%
CA 36%
CO 36%
ME 31%
TX 31%
HI 31%
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Good morning with good news: 99.6% of USA's 55.9 GW net utility scale capacity additions (additions minus retirements) in next 12 months will be solar, wind, batteries & other RE.
Gas net addition is 358 MW!
US likely also adds ~9 GW of small solar.
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Good morning with good news: The world is rapidly building the manufacturing base of 5 key technologies needed to reach Net Zero by 2050. Manufacturing capacity year-on-year grew for batteries (72%), solar (39%), electrolysers (26%) & heat pumps (13%).
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Good morning with good news: 10 states got 50% or more of their electricity from renewable generation during May 2022 (Maine, Iowa, KS, SD, WA, OR, CA, OK, ID, VT). Thirteen states got more than 40%, the previous 10 plus CO, NM & ND. RE is skyrocketing!
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IRA strikes again!
Waaree (headquartered in India) will build in Texas 3GW solar module factory. It will be operational in 2024! Waaree will also build an integrated solar cell facility that will operate in 2025.
About 1500 US jobs are created. Boom!
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Good morning with good news: Renewables will generate 42% of global electricity by 2028! Why? Huge increases in solar & wind generation.
With nuclear now at ~9% of global electricity, Zero CO2 generation may be 50% of global electricity by 2028.
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Good morning with good news: Maryland becomes first state to require utilities to enable EVs to supply the grid, not just homes. Bidirectional EV charging pilot programs also must be started!
MD's law also boosts VPPs & time of use power pricing for EVs.
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Good morning with good news: The world needs low-priced EVs, and BYD delivers the Seagull. Price is below $11,000, less than the comparable ICE Honda Fit. Seagull's two versions have ranges of 190 or 250 miles and charges 80% of the battery in 30 minutes.
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Good morning with good news: US "investments for a new green economy are pouring in: $110b in private investment, 51 new or expanded plants for producing solar panels, 91 new factories for making batteries and about 170,000 clean energy jobs."
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Good morning with good news: Goldman Sachs (not the Sierra Club) forecasts that battery prices will fall 40% from 2023 to 2025!
So, EVs (no subsidies) will be cheaper than ICE in 2025 in some markets. See BYD Dolphin for 23k in Mexico now! h/t
@drvolts
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Good morning with good news: Battery cell costs plunge by "60% to 64% in 12 months, making EVs cheaper and more grid storage economic.
Green River Energy was 400 MW solar plus 400 MWh storage project. Not now. It just quadrupled its storage to 1600MWh!
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Good morning with good news: Fossil fuel generated electricity is plunging in many countries!
Portugal peaked at 82% in 2005; down to 27% in 2023.
Germany peaked at 65% in 2003; down to 46% in 2023.
Finland peaked at 50% in 2003; down to 6% in 2023.
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The next 7 years will be among the most astonishing in energy's history:
Solar generated 4.5% of global electricity in 2022 but will generate ~20% of global electricity in 2030.
Zero carbon generation was 39% of global electricity in 2022 but will likely be ~60% in 2030.
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Good morning with good news: US investment in clean tech manufacturing (EV, solar, wind, batteries) explodes higher. It is up 171% in Q3 2023, compared to Q3 2022.
Investment in solar manufacturing is up 6 times or 500%.
Made in USA clean tech is back!
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Hooray! Ohio's largest solar plant just came online, joining global solar tsunami. The 577 MW giant has three phases: 150 MW Fox Squirrel 1 now online; the 250 MW Fox Squirrel 2 online in mid-2024: and the 177 MW Fox Squirrel 3 online end of 2024.
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Good morning with good news: EVs will be about 18% of global sales in 2023. Global sales jumped 55% in 2022, with China up 80% and USA up 50%! Purchases of EVs were more than $400 billion in 2022. Sizzling sales, rapid growth are great news!
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Good morning with good news: Wind and solar in the USA will generate more electricity than coal during 2024! In fact, they nearly did in 2023.
Wind and solar will provide about 1 7% of US electricity in 2024.
Coal also is down about 20% in 2023 and will be down again in 2024.
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NY fossil fuel generation jumped more than 20% after nuclear closures. Closing nuclear causes immediate increases in fossil fuel generation and CO2 emissions. Those who want to close nuclear need to face honestly what the result is. It's major climate action defeat!
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More great news: UK's electricity from fossil fuels is down to 1957 levels! It has fallen 66% from its 2008 peak.
Skyrocketing renewable energy replaced dirty fossil fuels. RE generated 43% and nuclear 13%, with imports at 7% & other sources 3%.
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For the first time in history, wind and solar generated more than 20% of USA's monthly electricity.
Wind and solar generated a monthly record 21.06% of US electricity in April 2023. Wind alone produced 13.95% and solar 7.11%. Each were monthly records for wind or solar alone.
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20%! EVs were 20% of global vehicle sales Q4 2023 and keep growing globally.
Yet, right-wing propagandist
@pwrhungry
, who contributes to
@wsjopinion
, told 500 people at
@NARUC
EVs are collapsing & energy transition is leftist media conspiracy.
Chart credit:
@colinmckerrache
.
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Downward: EVs already avoid 1.8 mbpd.
That puts downward pressure on oil demand & price. Today, U.S. crude dropped ~4% with retail gasoline prices at lowest point since January."
WTI fell below $70, down $2.80. Brent fell too.
Credit
@colinmckerrache
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Hooray! Scotland greenlights world's largest floating wind farm. Green Volt will be 560 MW from 35 floating wind turbines, generating yearly 1.5 TWh. It operates in 2029.
Green Volt is internationally important, as it commercializes floating wind tech.
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Good morning with good news: Solar power is on track to generate more than 50% of global electricity by 2050 and has reached an "irreversible tipping point." Global electricity generated from fossil fuels plunges from 62% in 2020 to 21% in 2050.
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Good morning with good news: Rooftop solar matters to global decarbonization. China installed 123.6 GW of rooftop solar in 2023. Wow!
China installed more rooftop solar than utility-scale solar (115.9 GW) in 2023.
China's rooftop solar totals 285.6 GW!
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Good morning with good news: Renewables (50%) and nuclear (21%) generated 71% of Spain's electricity for all of 2023!
Wind (23.8%) & Solar (16.7%) were 40.5%!
Fossil fuels fell to 29%.
Gas dropped to 23% from 30% in 2022.
Coal was 1.45%.
Wonderful!
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Good morning with good news: EV sales are soaring on USA's West Coast! EVs are ~25% of cars sold in California. They're ~15% in Washington and Oregon. CA EV sales were up 59% in Q2 2023 over Q2 2022.
California is 2 years ahead of its schedule to reach 100% EV sales by 2035!
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Good morning with good news: Battery recycling by Redwood cuts environmental cost of EV materials as much as 80%. "95% of the key minerals in batteries" can be profitably recycled.
Redwood will produce in US key material for 1.3 million EVs by 2028!
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Good morning with good news: US will approximately double its solar generation capacity by 2025-2026. From 2000 to 2022, US built 110 GWs of solar generation capacity. In the next 3 to 4 years that will double to about 220 GW. Astonishing!
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The largest offshore wind farm has been completed and will begin operations this year. It's 1.5 GW and built by the Dutch. The global offshore development pipeline skyrocketed in the last 12 months from about 800 GW to a huge 1.2 Terawatt. Wonderful!
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Good morning with good news: Renewables are having a record year for new capacity additions in 2023 and remain on course to be world's leading source of electricity by 2025!
RE will be more than coal.
RE could be more than coal & gas combined by 2030!
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Important: “Boardrooms in America, Europe, Korea and Japan are in a state of shock.” Why?
“No one can match BYD on price. Period."
"BYD can keeps its costs low...because it owns the entire supply chain of its EV batteries."
BYD comes for legacy auto!
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Good morning with good news: Solar module prices fell 51% in 2023, after falling 11% in 2022! 2023 prices reached record low levels.
As solar gets cheaper, its global installation skyrockets. Global solar installations jumped 64% in 2023 to about 431 GW!
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Good morning with good news: US Coal generation is down 20% in 2023 through September and will fall to 1970 levels! Coal will be ~16% of US electricity in 2023.
Ten states have zero coal electricity, and 20 states are at or near zero coal. Distributed solar is not in data below
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Good morning with good news (part 2): Global solar installation may be near or at 650 GWs in 2024. That matters. Why?
Solar installations must reach ~650 GW/year by 2030 for Net Zero.
Solar may be near or at the 650 GW level in 2024 or six years early!
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Solar power in Texas: "This summer, the ERCOT system is operating with more than 17,700 megawatts of solar capacity, more than double the amount installed at this time last year." It's generating like "clockwork" during heat waves.
via
@WSJ
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Good morning with good news: Hyundai will make 300,000 EVs per year in South Carolina, starting a year earlier than planned! Its US made EVs will roll out of the SC factory in 2024, not 2025. It will employ 8,500 workers! US EV sales are over 1 million/yr.
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Fossil fuel bros love primary energy charts. But they're in for an electric shock.
"...decarbonised energy system needs less energy than one running on fossil fuels." Electrification slashes primary energy use.
EV needs ~4 times less energy than ICE.
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Made In USA: Hyundai will open in October 2024, three months ahead of schedule, its EV factory in Georgia. It initially will produce 300,000 EVs per year. Production can be expanded to 500,000. Batteries will be made by LG Energy in USA.
Why in USA? IRA!
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Wonderful: Volvo and CATL will recycle 90% of the materials in batteries!
Recycling battery materials is part of Volvo's plan to slash by 75% its EV's lifecycle carbon footprint.
EVs get even cleaner, with cleaner electricity and cleaner supply chains.
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"The world just doubled installed solar capacity in a mere 18 months!" It could double again in two years. Amazingly wonderful!
Credit
@AssaadRazzouk
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Good morning with good news: Australia's EV sales skyrocketed 120%, more than doubling, in 2023! Sizzling!
EVs were 8.45% of auto sales in 2023, up from 3.81% in 2022.
“EVs are no longer a novelty, they are a core part of everyday Australian lives.”
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