Jacob F Kirkegaard
@jfkirkegaard
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Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute For International Economics (PIIE) and Bruegel
Brussels/Washington, D.C.
Joined December 2009
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The real shocker here is actually Sweden…..
Wow, Americans get murdered a lot more than Europeans
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"We don't have enough to be confident to send it abroad"? This is absurd from
@POTUS
and US vaccine nationalism at its clearest. Consider what amount of vaccines the US has "on the shelves" now, what it has sent to others and what say the EU has done to date? 🧵
“It’s in process. We don’t have enough to be confident to send it abroad now. But I expect we’re going to be able to do that,” Biden says about sharing Covid-19 vaccines with other countries
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Shame on Ireland - what a selfish standpoint
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In case anyone wonders why the EU should never introduce tariffs on Chinese solar panels…. Access to the best and cheapest panels matter for climate goals (and far far more than a few thousands solar production sector jobs)
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It is increasingly clear that the EU vaccine supply problems have bottomed out and that the news will be considerably better going forward. This shifts the "vaccine delivery problem" firmly on to the EU MS, whose capacity to quickly scale up roll outs may be severely tested. 1/n
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In fact the already existing differences in vaccine rollout across the EU are galling. Given
@EU_Commission
tells us that 13.1mn doses have now been made available to EU27 (+Norway) based on population, EU government "vaccine competence to date" can be charted. Correlation 6/13
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I very very rarely read opinion pieces that make my stomach turn, but being married to a French speaking Muslim of North African origin, this one did. The first and by far most numerous victims of the dogmatic Islam on display in it are the liberal 1/n
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I for a long list of fairly obvious reasons at this point in time propose
@n_roettgen
as the next Secretary General of
@NATO
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Some personal news; Everything has to change for things to stay the same, so after 20+ US years (OK.. at least NYC and DC NW), I + family will be moving to Brussels, where I will start as a SF with the
@GMFUS
on September 1st, while transitioning to non-resident SF with the
@piie
.
@jfkirkegaard
to commence dual appointment with the
@gmfus
and PIIE, transitioning to nonresident senior fellow here at PIIE and taking up the position of resident senior fellow in GMF's Brussels office.
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HOLY S.... pigs do fly! Danish parliament negotiates about ending the opt-out on EU defense (i.e. call another referendum), extra cash to defense and a "Scholz like decision" to raise defense spending to 2% of GDP
#eudk
BREAKING:
Regeringen, V, K, R, SF forhandler lige nu om stor forsvarspolitisk aftale.
På bordet: 1) Afstemning om forsvarsforbehold, 2) straksbevilling til Forsvaret, 3) Principbeslutning om, at forsvarsbudget skal udgøre 2% af BNP.
#dkpol
#dkforsvar
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The debate about whether to "lockdown" or "protect the economy" is about to settled by Sweden - PM now talks about "1000s of dead" (pandemic mortality roughly as Italy per capita) - most of which should have been entirely preventable with right measures
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1) The
@EU_Commission
's proposals for EU energy independence is coming tomorrow - main issue is that all options - shifting to new suppliers of scarce LNG, accelerated renewables investments and improved energy efficiency - are really expensive.... BUT 🧵
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Il Sorpasso..... :-) spot the country with their own currency and flexibility to set their entirely own economic policies?
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Bond markets have a very very well known leftie bias….. just ask the Greeks
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Self-propelled Howitzers now also from France... complete German "alleingaenge in Europe" on heavy weapons for Ukraine amng those who produce them is evident for all to see.....
@Bundeskanzler
talk of nuclear war won't quell these political facts
Emmanuel Macron confirms that France is supplying Ukraine with CAESAR self-propelled howitzers and MILAN anti-tank missiles, among other kinds of military equipment
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A quick DE thread, but I obviously have no idea really about the outcome of intense negotiations ahead. So just some auxiliary observations: 1) strong centrist vote - both AfD and Linke lose and are now de facto consigned to former East Germany with 75+% of vote in Center. 1/n
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As an early adopter of the "Hamiltonian Moment" description of what has recently happened in the EU with the new FR-DE proposal and now the EUR750bn
@EU_Commission
pplan that now seem to have become a punching bag for too negative views of these developments - a thread: 1/n
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I am used to reading this kind of stuff mostly in leftist German pamplets.... but here we go again without any agency granted to the countries on Russia's borders in the
@ftopinion
from safely behind the US nuclear umbrella in DC 🤢
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German vaccinations kicking into gear now - scaled to US population levels, this is just over 2.5mn in a day, so still some way to go, but supply is picking up and letting GPs jab too really makes a difference.....
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Bravo
@ThierryBreton
via
@nicolasberrod
- this is the discussion the EU should be having right now. Doubles down on French TV on
@EU_Commission
vaccine supply goals; Jan 14mn; Feb 28mn; Mar 60mn; Apr 100mn; May 120mn 1/3
Thierry Breton promet, pour l'Europe :
-14 millions de doses en janvier
-28M en février
-60M en mars
-100M en avril
-120M en mai
Soit 322 millions de doses (450M habitants)
Il assure que l'Europe aura, "le 14 juillet, la possibilité d'atteindre l'immunité".
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@afneil
Perhaps
@afneil
that is because the ESA BIC UK already has 3 existing locations at Harwell Campus in Oxfordshire, Sci-Tech Daresbury in the North West and the Royal Observatory in Edinburgh and is merely adding a 4th in Leicester.
@Jefferson_MFG
tweet is pure spin and no real
#s
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Updating EU vaccine data, two things stand out. 1) Good news = supply will quickly pick up now. 2) Far Less good new = no "convergence to the top" among EU MS, raising risk of lack of uniform rollout acceleration in coming weeks with higher supply. 1/11
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I am not a legal scholar, so know little about the legal reasoning behind the Polish Constitutional Court ruling. However, what is striking to me is that the Polish government has let it come to this point now - this seems to me to be a fight they - PiS - cannot win. Quick 🧵1/n
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Il Sorpasso.... China > USA on what is arguably the most basic average quality of life metric.... life expectancy at birth... Covid19, overdoses & guns has pulled USA down in recent years
#Bleak
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3) In total therefore the US has 100+mn (and rising!) vaccine doses currently on its shelves, while it refuses to export any to anyone, having to date just lent 4.2mn AZ doses to Canada and Mexico. Contrast to what EU vaccine policy enables firms located here to do is striking!
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The lack of EU government preparedness for a "Dunkirk Moment" rollout of vaccines is a scandal. We know that national differences within the EU are large, just at the
@NYTimes
tells us they are between states in the US
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The real scandal in EU vaccinations is NOT vaccine procurement, but the outrageously timid rollout plans for pricking Europeans' arms with them. A new virulent strain is raging and time is of the essence, unless you want lockdowns and deaths to continue (and no Anders Tegnell 1/n
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Europe's "Hamiltonian Moment" Must Be Now! A short thread.
EU econ forecasts are quickly being revised to the Covid19 reality of maybe 15+% drops in GDP in 1H 2020. This from a perfectly exogenous shock that no member state had any culpability in, invalidating any claim of 1/n
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The more one thinks about the bombshell from
@marcobreso
and
@LaStampa
the more outrageous it gets. A stockpile in IT of 29mn doses is ~175% of what
@AstraZeneca
has delivered to the EU to date and roughly equals the 30mn doses the company has now 1/n
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@joebiden
wants 100mn Americans vaccinated in 100days - that means ~115mn or just over 1/3 of all Americans will have received at least first jab by late April. That frankly is a pretty timid and certainly NOT a moonshot, or even enough to get out of lockdowns soon enough. 1/13
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@vonderleyen
was earlier today kind enough to update EU vaccine supply data. This was actually very very encouraging, as it highlights that the EU27+NO+IS is on target to be able to vaccinate 70% of its 18y+ population by the END OF JUNE with the 4 currently approved vaccines 1/n
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My bit on why the new Franco-German proposal is a really really big deal -
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@simonjhix
:-) Brexit will become the U.K. version of US Prohibition - pushed to extremes by fanatics at a time of dislocation, disastrous for the average citizen and ultimately reversed
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Unsurprisingly, the correlation between the two is high and a graphic representation of "government competence in vaccine rollout by region" can be constructed. DK does best, while the poor relative DE vaccine performance is at odds with Covid-measures taken to date. Given 6/n
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@davidenrich
@mathieuvonrohr
@DeutscheBank
@nytimes
@benprotess
@EricLiptonNYT
:-)... both options only get really ugly if in a few weeks Deutsche needs a bailout from Angela Merkel....
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An update; Vaccine news are improving across most of the EU as rollout accelerates. HU/MT now near US/UK levels, 3 laggards remains BG, LV and CR, while others roughly on par. Noticeably DE, ES and IT proceeding rapidly through EU vaccination rankings. A 🧵
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Brussels... time to discuss!
Ukraine, Rating poll:
European Union membership referendum
Join: 74% (+8)
Remain outside: 26% (-8)
+/- vs. 4-9 November 2021
Fieldwork: 16-17 February 2022
Sample size: 1,722
➤
#Ukraine
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@Mij_Europe
@MichelBarnier
@10DowningStreet
@JoeBiden
:-) so a government wedded to “take back control” waits for foreign political decision to decide fate of its sovereigntist political project.... very very Brexit indeed
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Time to update EU vaccination data; A clearer pic is emerging with MT and HU well ahead due to threshold and timing effect on vacc deliveries (MT) and RU/CH supply (HU), while BG, LV and CR lag behind EU average (Note - NL data a week old) 1/10
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EU continues to expand vacc exports - even more important as India stopped exports and China looks set to also begin to import them. JP, UK and NAFTA main recipients. Contrast to US having 62mn vaccs (not incl. AZ BTW) "lying around" and UK a major vacc importer is striking. 5/n
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Time to update the EU Covid vaccine charts. Situation is one of remarkable similarity across EU+NO+IS - with only HU (RU/CH vaccs) and MT (small size) well ahead of rest and BG, LV and CR materially lagging behind EU average. US (now ahead of UK) is well ahead of EU average. 1/n
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1) Russia is being subjected to an increasingly effective "private sector embargo", as private businesses pull out and no buyers for discounted RU oil can be found. This seems somewhat similar to how the US was able to compel virtually all private businesses to leave Iran via 🧵
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Har
@Statsmin
ret, naar hun siger til
@TroelsMylenberg
at det er gammeldags ikke at bekymre sig om gaelden og at DK skal investere sig ud af krisen? Mest ja = det primaere politiske problem er at beslutte hvad man skal investere i. Noerdet econ traad 1/12
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2) On top of that US medical experts estimate that the US now has 35-40mn non-FDA approved
@AstraZeneca
vaccines in storage, that it (given its focus on mRNA vaccines and AZ's side effects) is highly unlikely to ever use
India is in the throes of a horrendous COVID surge
Horrendous
They are struggling to get more people vaccinated
We are sitting on 35-40 million doses of Astra Zeneca vaccine Americans will never use
Can we please give or lend them to India? Like may be now?
It'll help. A lot
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@mjluxmoore
:-) Sisi's Egypt - hold my beer...
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A quick thread on today's
@EUCouncil
video conference - its basically all to play for, but signs are getting more promising. 1) The MFF is now clearly the vehicle of choice, which i) dictates the timetable, so nothing before Jan 2021 (sorry US/UK observers -fiscal integration 1/n
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:-) - a rhetorical "race to the top":
@POTUS
Apr 28th "America.... an arsenal of vaccines for other countries".
@vonderleyen
May 6th "Europe is nowadays the pharmacy of the world.".... walk-the-walk, too? US vacc exports to date: ~2.5mn to MX/CA. EU 200+mn to 90 countries
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@ChassNews
Which is why France still has far more babies than any of the other countries listed there…. With so many more hours spent, very few has two or three children
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Overall EU vacc supply news very positive and indicative of reaching the EU target of 70% of the 18y+ population by end-Q2, whether one uses the numbers given by
@ThierryBreton
or
@vonderleyen
in recent days. 5/10
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6) With India in the middle of a deadly 2nd wave, Russia with limited prod capacity, China likely to begin importing Pfizer vaccines for the mainland (with Fosun), the UK a vaccine net importer, only a change in US government policy can likely make a real difference NOW!
@POTUS
?
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Implausible that the Irish gov would go public with this “trial balloon” without implicit support of critical mass among the rest of the EUs members…. Buckle up I guess
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Tonight's
@EUCouncil
was a YUUUGE disappointment, but thanks to
@ECB
all is not yet lost for Europe. Several things must be clear though on the path ahead; 1) The PEPP is mutualization of
#Covid19
related expenses onto the
@ECB
balance sheet for a VERY long time. Means MS 1/n
Europe's symmetric crisis must not turn into an(other) asymmetric recovery,
@jfkirkegaard
writes.
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EU vaccine deliveries appear to be slipping from both
@pfizer
/
@BioNTech_Group
and
@AstraZeneca
, causing supply constraints to begin to bite in more MS. Yet despite increasing vaccination speeds in some MS and the EU claiming to be distributing vaccs by population differences 1/13
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Not the “Scholz effect”
@spdde
would have wanted
Sonntagsfrage zur Bundestagswahl • Forsa für RTL/n-tv: CDU/CSU 27 % | SPD 22 % | GRÜNE 22 % | FDP 8 % | AfD 8 % | DIE LINKE 4 % | Sonstige 9 %
➤ Übersicht:
➤ Verlauf:
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claim to speak for a religion and dictate how it must be practiced...... or else! Pathetic, ignorant, authoritarian.
#StandWithFrance
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Great EU vaccine news
#1
from
@EMA_News
,
@business
and
@nchrysoloras
. Single shot J&J vacc likely approved in EU on March 11 = deliveries in Apr. This is key, as J&J can be stored easily and facilitate rapid rollout acceleration with vacc spots everywhere
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GREAT problem to have
European gas demand is expected to fall steeply in next 2 decades. We need to plan for decommissioning of gas infrastructure.
Excellent job
@gasoutlook
@nickcunningham1
summarising my recent paper with
@heatpolicyrich
@RegAssistProj
@CKemfert
@DIW_Berlin
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Wholeheartedly agree with this FT assessment - mistakesmade (and continues to be so in comms frankly), but overall the EU Covid-19 vaccination procurement, production and administration is a huge success for the continent! Onwards to help save the world
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1) The US has per the
@CDCgov
a current unused stockpile of ~63mn FDA approved vacc doses (
@Pfizer
/
@moderna_tx
/ J&J), number that due to slowing vaccination rates as Americans who want it has already got it is rising at over 1mn/day....
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Narrator:
#Serbia
decides to abandon EU membership strategy to pursue alternative arrangements
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@faisalislam
Best way for Norway to do the right thing is to step up and pledge 25% of its “excess war related gas export proceeds” - say €20bn - to Ukrainian reconstruction at the Oct 25 G7/Commission Berlin donors conference.
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Happy to report that Sweden has now also published updated vaccine delivery schedules indicating it also finish vaccinating 100% by June. Why not all of the EU?
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What lessons should the EU and its member states learn to prevent its current troubled vaccine rollout from being repeated in a future where pandemics seem likely to be more frequent? In a new
@PIIE
piece, I lay out why it is mostly about money! 1/7
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So far a really bad
#Euro2021
for the autocrats.... Group A Turkey out (and Erdogan is a major football fan!), Group B - Russia out, & Group F Hungary last with one point and Germany in the last game... Make it it 3 autocrats out of 3!
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So - the
@EU_Commission
has proposed a new color scheme to coordinate
#COVID19
travel restrictions (very little of that to date sadly), but how would EU members score according to latest available ECDC data? LOTS of trouble in a LOT of countries - ES, FR, NL, CZ, BE, HU, RO.
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@jnordvig
And exporting say 150x as much to date :-)
Time to talk global vaccine exports - a topic where data availability (hopefully) will soon improve as opportunities for "vaccine diplomacy" emerge and - despite the Indian tragedy and glaring global inequalities in vacc access, the news is generally quite good. A 🧵
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More importantly -
@vonderleyen
steps pu EU vaccine diplomacy: "So far, more than 200 million doses of vaccines produced in Europe have been shipped to the rest of the world." - this would put EU exports on the level of China as the
#joint1globalvaccineexporter
..... well done!
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Der er med andre ord ingen økonomiske hindringer for at
@regeringDK
ikke afsætter 1% af BNP i ny statsgæld til indkøb af våben til Ukraine hvert år indtil Rusland er besejret. Vi har de bredeste økonomiske skuldre - det forpligter!
@spolitik
@venstredk
@moderaterne_dk
Laveste statsgæld i 47 år, faldende renteomkostninger og en uafbrudt periode på 20 år med den såkaldte AAA-rating.
Det er de tre hovedkonklusioner i Nationalbankens årlige status på statsgælden, der netop er blevet offentliggjort.
Læs rapporten her:
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@alexstubb
@FT
importantly power prices continued to fall... so we are seemingly past "Peak Putin Gas Blackmail Time" in EU...... reducing demand helps!
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I godt selskab hos
@MagnusBarsoe
og ikke mindst
@politiken
’s tegner til en snak om hvorfor det går “ufatteligt godt” i DK’s økonomi, hvorfor inflationsfrygt er en amerikansk import og hvad man skal gøre nu for at fortsætte opturen
#dkpol
#dkmedier
#dk
øko
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Suk - det bliver stadigt mere og mere tydeligt hvad STM's politiske aerinde var med vaccine turen til ISR - at daekke over det faktum at hendes regering, trods retorikken idag, IKKE havde risikovilligheden da det gjalt sidste sommer med en DK vaccine
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:-) the real reason the EU is so keen on decarbonization is obviously to rid itself of the only major deficit category in its trade balance…. Green deal is a permanent positive trade shock
When looking at the EU trade balance by product group in Q1 2024, the largest surplus was recorded for:
🔸 Machinery and vehicles (€65.7 billion)
Largest deficit for:
🔸Energy (-€87.7 billion)
Learn more 👉
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Time to talk global vaccine exports - a topic where data availability (hopefully) will soon improve as opportunities for "vaccine diplomacy" emerge and - despite the Indian tragedy and glaring global inequalities in vacc access, the news is generally quite good. A 🧵
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Following a very interesting conversation this morning, I thought I would do a 🧵on just why supporting UKR as a full member is so important for the long-term functioning and political stability of the EU... without it, no grand bargain for the EU in the 2020ies is possible
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Bravo
@ThierryBreton
- this is precisely the "vaccine case" the
@EU_Commission
and the EU more broadly should be making every day (should have started a month or two ago, but better late than never). Vaccine nationalism & trade barriers are a dead-end! 1/7
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:-) And so it happens....
@POTUS
adopts the longstanding
@EU_Commission
goal of vaccinating 70% of adults at roughly the same time as EU will be able to do so......
BREAKING: President Joe Biden to set new target of vaccinating 70% of adult Americans, with 160 million people fully vaccinated, by July 4, White House says.
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@CarolineGruyter
@aspeciale
:-) Presumably by definition, this will be where you go and read the books Erdogan discourages/bans?
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It appears that a "Project Eurobond" for the pandemic recovery has now been agreed by France and Germany - EUR500bn in new debt back proposed directly by the EU budget (i.e. not ESM style by member state guarantees) -
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@grimmse
@sebastiankurz
Malta likely does get more (Cyprus too) than pop-weight due to lower threshold effects (say 10k is minimum shipment size), which matters a lot when your pop is very small... :-) did anyone ask him what he got out of his trip with DK PM to see Bibi?
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Per the Danish authorities
@AstraZeneca
will now cut its deliveries to the EU in Q2 by half! Needless to say, this is a remarkably poor performance by the company on many levels and looks likely to elicit more blocks on the firm's exports from the EU 👎
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Why would the UK need to leave the EU to do that? Denmark has had a "low-cost shipping register" since 1988 (Maersk wanted it) and never had a larger shipping fleet than today exporting services worth EUR25-30bn annually. Another actually
#NoNeed4Brexit2DoThat
spin?
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The recent good news are numerous: Today an additional delivery 200mn
@BioNTech_Group
/
@Pfizer
vaccines to the EU, incl. crucially 75mn in Q2 was announced. 2/n
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5) but that is no excuse really now for the US government not to allow export of vaccines produced in the US. Exports of crucial vaccine ingredients (incl. to AZ in the EU) from the US no longer suffices.
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@Mij_Europe
Too negative - 42% percent reflects 1. Round “cost less” preferences, too, and just because you vote against Macron (not likely to get more than 58% in 2. Round) doesn’t mean you really “want to screw everything”. “Theatrical nihilism in the streets” is part of being French
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China is doing it right - EU is stagnating
China’s economy may be struggling to grow, but its electricity industry is not. Power consumption rose by 6.7% in 2023, marking the fourth straight year that electricity use grew faster than GDP. And China is well on its way to becoming the most electrified economy in the world.
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In case anyone wondered why
@RTErdogan
is throwing a (futile to date so escalating) fit over FI/SE and
@NATO
, why Greek airspace is violated habitually and war in N Syria looks likely again soon….
Turkey, KONDA poll:
AKP~NI: 29% (-4)
CHP-S&D: 25%
İYİ~RE: 22% (+3)
HDP-S&D: 12%
MHP~NI: 8% (-1)
+/- vs. September 2021
Fieldwork: 14-15 May 2022
Sample size: 3,260
➤
#anket
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Ironic that this highlights how people like
@sebastiankurz
are today FAR better of by having had
@EU_Commission
procurement - if not he likely would have bought hardly any Biontec vaccs and he would not have had anyone to yell at hide his failures
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insisting on a numerically close to meaningless "reciprocity" just as EU vacc supply is about to pick up?
@EU_Commission
should focus on the positive vacc story about to unfold. See also my comments to
@danielboffey
here. END
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So :-) - "measured appropriately" we are dealing with more than a "Hamiltonian Moment" and in peacetime. Not bad at all Europe!
@adam_tooze
@MESandbu
@mcopelov
@EuroBriefing
@W_Schmidt_
@joergkukies
@jakob_eu
@MartinSelmayr
@GuntramWolff
@nicolas_veron
@AngelUbide
@SMerler
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IT and ES among larger EU members does best at around 70%. These are, in light of the ongoing race with
#Covid19
mutations NOT trivial differences across the EU. In rich and generally well organized EU economies there is no real good reason for not roughly "matching Denmark" 9/13
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@EU_Commission
announcing another 50mn doses of
@BioNTech_Group
vaccs in Q2 = 250mn from them alone in Q2... scale-up not possible without free trade in vaccs/components by EU. Trade works well for EU!
Today we have reached 100 million vaccinations in the EU. A milestone we can be proud of!
We are also accelerating the delivery of vaccines.
We spare no effort to ensure that Europeans can be vaccinated as fast as possible.
#StrongerTogether
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@grantwyeth
@JeremyCliffe
:-) time to catch up down under.......
Denmark has already agreed to take charge of the restoration of Mykolaiv, the Baltic countries of the Zhytomyr Oblast, and Portugal of rebuilding Ukrainian schools.
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