Jack Lambert
@jacklambert__
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Cincinnati | Baseball Operations @DrivelineBB
Cincinnati & South Bend
Joined November 2014
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Everyone’s favorite topic: the dead zone FB.
The rule of thumb is to avoid the blue, but it’s not always as clear cut as we’d like it to be.
Let’s look at three (brief) case studies demonstrating how pitchers beat the dead zone in 2023. 🧵
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As
@johnsadak
speculated, only 21.4% of the pitches Elly De La Cruz sees are fastballs in the zone… 2nd lowest out of 339 players with 500 pitches seen this year
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Of the 12 pitches to average less than 1000 RPM this year, Bautista’s average splitter velo (88.3 MPH) is 3 MPH faster than any other qualifiers.
#Birdland
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Connor Phillips led all SPs in Driveline Stuff+ yesterday.
FF: 128 Stuff+
ST: 121 Stuff+
CB: 96 Stuff+
CH: 74 Stuff+
Very encouraging debut!
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We are hiring a summer BB Ops Intern
@DrivelineBB
!
Key Req’s:
- Python/R + SQL skills
- ⚾️ knowledge
- exp w/data pipelines
Opportunity to join fast paced env and contribute to adv scouting, DL’s models, and ⚾️ research. Apps are flying in so apply ASAP:
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Throw out the ERA when evaluating new
#Reds
reliever Sam Moll and look at something more reliable, like his pitch shapes.
In a fastball it’s important to avoid the dead zone where HB = VB.
With both having ~avg velo, Moll’s SI shape is beautiful — his FF not so much.
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Moll rounds out his arsenal with a filthy ST (41% usage). The SI+ST combo is a tough match for LHH.
Even with the subpar FF, Moll has the HIGHEST Stuff+ of all LHP vs LHH this season (min. 100 pitches).
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Arm angle must be considered when describing Stuff+ by movement. Watch the deadzone shift as arm angle changes.
While his velocity is a bigger issue than Duran’s in 2024, Sewald’s movement profile – given his arm angle – cleared him from the dead zone in 2023.
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This has to be a joke🤣🤣
Postseasons are built on pitching. How does your Top 10 look?
Full rotation rankings:
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Sam Moll is a great example of why it’s important to understand trends behind the model instead of just following it blindly.
Moll’s outlier of a release point creates a difficult scenario for a model. It’s the same reason pitching models struggle with submarine pitchers.
That really got me thinking.
We've seen Stuff+ struggle a bit to calibrate to "unique" pitches inseason. Alexis Diaz's 4SFB comes to mind.
Then, after
@CespedesBBQ
posted this plot... it really got the wheels spinning. Maybe the
#Reds
saw something Stuff+ didn't?
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Of the 3 cases Duran’s is the most obvious.
The dead zone disintegrates as velocity reaches 98 MPH. Duran averaged over 101.8 MPH on his fastball last year and only 4 were below 98 MPH in 2023… barring significant velo dip, his FB will remain effective (115 Stuff+ in 2023).
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Bring everyone you know so we can raise as much money as possible!!
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Paul Sewald became an anti-analytics meme in the 2023 playoffs, but he’s always been an analytics darling. Unlike Duran, Sewald’s FB was ~1.5 MPH below league average.
His arm angle allowed him to overcome his movement profile and put up a 113 Stuff+
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@jakemailhot
Reformatting the dead zone plot to look at location adjusted VAA shows that no matter the shape, a flatter than average approach angle will likely put you in the clear.
Vodnik escaped the dead zone with his flat approach angle for a 117 Stuff+ last season.
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Players to lead the league in homers and triples:
1955 Willie Mays*
1978 Jim Rice*
2023 Shohei Ohtani
#GoHalos
* did not also pitch in their free time
Shohei Ohtani is the first MLB player in the last 91 years to have 35 homers and 7 triples by his team's 96th game. 😮
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Looking at BA as the primary metric to define offensive output is ridiculous.
If you want a simple stat to better value offense, OBP vastly outperforms BA.
Something that accurately values different ways to reach base, like wOBA, is the way to go when predicting runs per game.
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His command is below average and there are still holes in his game, but for a bullpen with a single lefty (who also has reverse splits!) Moll is a very solid addition.
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Players with multiple starts of 3+ pitches at 110 Stuff+:
Zack Wheeler (11)
Logan Webb (10)
Shohei Ohtani (6)
Dustin May (6)
Bobby Miller (4)
Bryan Woo (4)
George Kirby (3)
Shane McClanahan (2)
Framber Valdez (2)
Braxton Garrett (2)
Jesus Luzardo (2)
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Nobody more deserving!!
CONGRATULATIONS to our Head Coach Don Gullett Jr. on winning D1 Coach of the Year in the Greater Cincinnati & Northern Kentucky area!
@dgj1919
@Cam_S_21
@INlikeFLYNN05
@TurpinSpartans
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With over 150 apps at this point, and plenty that are highly qualified, we’ve decided to put a hold on new apps and focus on the questionnaires/interviews with those moving forward in the process.
Thank you to everyone who applied!
We are hiring a summer BB Ops Intern
@DrivelineBB
!
Key Req’s:
- Python/R + SQL skills
- ⚾️ knowledge
- exp w/data pipelines
Opportunity to join fast paced env and contribute to adv scouting, DL’s models, and ⚾️ research. Apps are flying in so apply ASAP:
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MLB season kicks off tomorrow with Dodgers vs Padres!
The Dodgers were one of the main stories of the offseason – how will their elite lineup stack up against Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove?
Let’s take a look using some of Drivline’s models.
🧵
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One thing to keep an eye on is what type of discipline we'll see from CES. If he has a BB%/K% similar to what he had in AA last year his ceiling is capped pretty low.
If he can channel the discipline he's had this year (or even better since 5/26!) the sky is the limit.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand hit .331/.405/.637 with a .440 wOBA and 153 wRC+ and 21 doubles/20 home runs in 316 PAs with Louisville.
#Reds
Since May 26 (186 PA):
16.1 BB%
17.7 K%
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151
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Get em next year
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Driveline grades his stuff as elite while FanGraphs has it as subpar.
If we look at his actual pitch shapes, they align much closer with above average stuff.
Is he truly the filthiest LHP/LHH pitcher this year? Probably not. He’s probably still pretty good.
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Why use SD+ over Z/O Swing%?
SD+ takes a more individualized approach to evaluating a swing/take based on pitch location and type, count, score, and hitter. It's also
a better predictor of wOBA than any combination of Z/O Swing%.
More here:
Will Benson has developed one of the best approaches in baseball.
Of the 340 players who have seen 500 pitches this year, Benson ranks 12th in chase rate and 5th in SD+.
Check out Benson (green outline) relative to the league:
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Will Benson has developed one of the best approaches in baseball.
Of the 340 players who have seen 500 pitches this year, Benson ranks 12th in chase rate and 5th in SD+.
Check out Benson (green outline) relative to the league:
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@RedsInFour
Yesterday had the FF at 88 Stuff+ and 93 for the season — pretty similar to the model on FanGraphs
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It’s becoming less likely Luis Arraez hits 0.400, but this could be the most impressive BA season we’ve seen relative to league average since Williams.
Here’s a look at the most famous 0.400 chases since Williams by BA and BA+:
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Low arm angle and flat VAA typically go together, hence Sewald also benefits from his VAA.
@jakemailhot
covered this previously here:
Victor Vodnik utilizes a flat approach angle from a more “normal” arm angle.
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Votto vs Goldschmidt
AVG: Votto
HR: tied
RBI: Goldschmidt
OBP: Votto
SLG: Votto
OPS: Votto
Runs: Goldschmidt
Hits: Votto
Goldschmidt had over 50 more strikeouts
Silver Slugger: Goldschmidt
🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔
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Brandon Williamson Stuff+/Command+ by month:
May: 92/82
June: 105/96
July: 102/91
Since May:
- CT Command+ 87📈105
- CU Command+ 27 (yes, 27)📈📈📈87
- FF Stuff+ 75📈94
#ATOBTTR
Brandon Williamson delivers a quality start. He has made a jump this season and given the Reds solid production in the rotation.
His fastball is back as his go-to pitch, he worked with Derek Johnson on fine tuning his delivery and he's throwing the ball harder.
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🐐
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If Chapman is bringing back 103 he’s gotta break the somersault back out too
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🔥🔥🔥
Hey
@SpartanKrazies
! Sign-ups for
#BeatAnderson
Shirts will begin Tuesday during LUNCH! Bring $10 to get your shirt PRE-ORDERED!
#WinTheDay
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@AlexFast8
Has really started leaning on the fastball/split duo (still mixing in the CT/SL) and it’s been working. 129 Stuff+ on the FF and 126 on the split
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@TJStats
@Alex_Caravan
@pitchprofiler
@DrivelineBB
Correct, except for descriptiveness we also compared 2022 Stuff to 2022 metrics. The values are Spearman correlation’s weighted by pitches thrown in our dataset
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@jakemailhot
The point is pitch design matters! Trends like the dead zone movement profile exist, but tools like Stuff+ allow us to better contextualize all components of a pitch to grade out its effectiveness.
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Big pickup for
#Birdland
Fujinami has been leaning into his filthy four seam/splitter combo more and has consistently improved since the beginning of the season. Stuff+/Command+ by month:
April: 104/83
May: 104/78
June: 119/88
July: 127/97
TRADE: The Baltimore Orioles are acquiring Shintaro Fujinami from the Oakland A's, per
@JonHeyman
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@Alex_Caravan
@LanginTots13
@Tstokey
Open to remote but would highly recommend working in-person if possible!
The knowledge you can pick up by being around the office is top tier. The Silver King level Immaculate Grid help you can get from
@drivelinekyle
is also top tier.
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BA+ = 100*(player BA)/(league BA)
AKA the percentage better/worse than average a player is in BA.
With BA+ we can account for the fact that hitting 0.350 when league BA is 0.250 is more impressive than when the league BA is 0.300.
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This sequence from Chapman:
Splitter: 117 Stuff+, 90 MPH, 699 RPM
Fourseam: 172 Stuff+, 101.1 MPH, 15.4 in⬆️
Sinker: 194 Stuff+, 102.8 MPH🔥, 13.1 in⬅️
#StraightUpTX
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Hey
@Reds
bring back these jerseys
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This savvy approach to pitching makes for some intriguing matchups.
Ohtani, Betts, and T. Hernandez won’t have as many opportunities to crush the fastball as they typically do. Darvish and Musgrove have deep enough arsenals to challenge them in other ways.
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In addition to these skills, the Dodgers lineup can crush the fastball. Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Teoscar Hernandez ranked in the top 10 of Pitch Info’s RV/100 vs FB last season.
Ohtani’s 75 grade bat speed resulted in an AVERAGE exit velocity of 97 vs FBs in 2023.
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@MLBRandomStats
C-Wilson Contrares
1B-Joey Votto
2B-Jonathon Schoop
3B-Anthony Rendon
SS-Andrelton Simmons
LF-Trey Mancini
CF-Byron Buxton
RF-Bryce Harper
DH-Eric Hosmer
SP1-Chris Sale
SP2-Johnny Cueto
RP-Felipe Rivero
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Legendary.
First major project for Summer 2019 will drop June 29th.
Title: TBD
Description: How a group of kids created a soccer tournament in 6th grade. 5 years later it's one of the most talked about events in the community/schools, followed by hundreds, etc
30 for 30 type documentary
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ALLSTAR CALIBER‼️
Devonte' Graham with the game on the line. CLUTCH ❄️
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This man is worth over $100 million
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We can use Driveline’s Big 3 to analyze a hitter’s profile.
Freeman and Smith both possess strong bat to ball (B2B) skills and swing decisions, each grading out at 60 on the 20-80 scale. Betts takes this to another level, with 70 grade B2B and 65 grade swing decisions.
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What does this mean?
Smith, Freeman, and Betts possess a combination of skills where they swing at the right pitches, and convert their swings into effective contact.
This type of profile forces pitchers to execute, as whiffs and chases are hard to come by.
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Stuff looked a lot better too.
- FF average velo up 1 MPH and 1 inch IVB
- SI and CH each had 2 more inches of run
Stuff+ by pitch:
SI: 99
FF: 96
CU: 91
SL: 84
CH: 110
#LetsGoBucs
Very good outing by Quinn Priester in my opinion.
Hostile environment against a very good offense.
Final line: 5.1IP 4H 3ER 3BB 4K
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@enosarris
Interesting… with Savant’s pitch tagging Driveline has his SI shape at 2.4 IVB and 16 HB with 93.5 avg velo, and consequently a solid Stuff+
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@TheTaylorCrews
@jakemailhot
Hjerpe's SI profile gets over 15 in. of HB on average... looking at this visual, you're generally in the clear if you can get >15 in. of HB.
Driveline's model has him at 121 Stuff+ this spring!
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Betts, Smith, and Freeman’s biggest strengths will be challenged by strong command of multiple pitches from Darvish and Musgrove. While these three typically don’t chase or whiff, the deception from the Padres’ arsenals will put these skills to the test.
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Matching up against Darvish and Musgrove creates an interesting dilemma.
In 2023, they had the two least concentrated arsenals. Not only did they both throw 6+ pitches, they both managed to command at least 4 of them better than average, according to Driveline’s Command+
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