Grant Bailey
@grantjbailey
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Research Associate @FamStudies. Opinions my own.
Charlottesville
Joined September 2023
RT @tracewoodgrains: Checking sources is a superpower--you would not believe the stuff people sneak into things. As one example: the book….
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RT @JohnHolbein1: Online sports betting has been really bad for financially vulnerable households. "Following legalization, sports bett….
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RT @lymanstoneky: Cc @RuxandraTeslo look at these graphs and convince me the limiting factor on births in the 40s is biology!!!. Women in t….
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RT @BradWilcoxIFS: “Since the 1960s, the tide has been going out on marriage… But now it looks like tide is coming back” | More @TheAtlanti….
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RT @BradWilcoxIFS: 1. Since '60s, marriage has lost ground as stable foundation of American family life. But now w/.✔️ Divorce rate hitting….
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Stephanie Murray here (and in the linked Atlantic piece) is 100% correct. The fertility & marriage crisis is not a mere culture issue to the exclusion of economics—culture and economics are fundamentally intertwined. If you want long lasting fertility, you MUST make having.
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Can any professors confirm this? Do you think your job might be automated in the future? @jennfrey.
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From new WaPo puff piece on Claude's ability to automate work. Looks like philosophy & religion professors are one of the most at-risk occupations for automation! Hmm🤔
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Not it. Divorce rate is falling for those without a college degree.
People are getting more educated and getting married later. These have always been major factors in the odds of getting divorced.
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Just reading what people say, you'd be forgiven for thinking it's this elite subgroup of people who end up marrying, but it's probably going to be around 2/3 to 4/5 of adults. Not great, very bad for fertility, but it's a strong majority.
It looks like new marriages are (shockingly) stronger than in past decades. 🧵
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A few takeaways from falling divorce rates:.1. The decline is probably selection.2. Low marriage rates don't explain divorce rates across the board (pre 1970s had HIGH marriage).3. Lower divorce is great for kids (but there are less kids).4. DONT BUY THAT 50% OF MARRIAGES FAIL.
This shouldn’t be a surprise. Fewer marriages and no cultural requirement or push for marriage means those who marry tend to be more serious about it. Still, it’s good to neutralize the argument many make: “you’re rolling the dice if you marry.” It’s clearly not true among.
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:(
I want to see a percentage of low and working class people getting married over time.
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The word "heterofatalism" is funny and sad at the same time and for the same reason. These people are absurdly unreflective. Here's your answer: stop trying to have your little rebellion against nature. YOU WILL LOSE
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Can you imagine a sentiment more alienated? And no surprise, it fails in the end. It turns out that "desire" (like all things) is embedded in things and has intention towards ends. There is no true unfettered desire.
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Seriously. they conceptualize men as phallus-having meat-suits, hunt for men who see themselves as as phallus-having meat-suits, and then are bitterly disappointed when the phallus-having meat-suit acts like it is a phallus-having meat-suit.
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These women wonder why the "good guys" are flaky, skittish, secretly perverts, who wear whatever masculinity they left have like a bad cologne. Yet these same women (and their mothers) have arduously labored to make men into neuters, eunuchs with their genitals sown back on.
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RT @FamStudies: New: Using the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP), we found that new marriages are stronger today than in ev….
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RT @BradWilcoxIFS: Given declines in divorce among more recent cohorts of married men & women, @grantjbailey @lymanstoneky & I estimate "th….
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Read the whole article:
ifstudies.org
The fortunes of marriage have changed. Marital stability looks much different than it did 30 years ago.
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