It turns out that Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is an extremely good predictor of Completed Fertility (r squared = 0.973 across ~10,000 datapoints!) @lymanstoneky analyzed 73 years of UN data for over 100 countries and validated the widely used TFR metric. (Paywall removed below.)

My own interpretation is that prayer raises fertility both by supporting psychological wellbeing and by helping to bridge the political and cultural divide between men and women. 4/4 A full discussion is here: https://t.co/w4avnjCAIK

Changes in frequency of prayer in a country were very predictive of changes in fertility, to a much greater degree than economic effects. This suggests that the secularization of Europe has been a major cause of its plunging birthrates. 3/4

The pattern holds for men as well as women. The author's findings suggest internal belief and not mere church attendance drives fertility. This is significant because in Europe, church attendance is quite low but many still maintain active private faith. 2/4

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A new study by Christopher Sandmann of the London School of Economics finds a significant positive correlation between prayer and fertility in almost every European country. Changes in the share who pray had twice as great an impact on fertility as economic factors. 🧵

Fertility is declining, not just being postponed Some people claim that the declines in fertility (as measured by Total Fertility Rate) are really just delays, and that women could make up childbearing at later ages. Unfortunately, a lot of that is just wishful thinking. Women

Východní Evropa obecně vyhrála demografický "anti-jackpot": masivní propad plodnosti v důsledku pádu socialismu a divoké transformace v kombinaci s masovou emigrací mladých do západní Evropy za násobně vyššími platy, umožněnou a podporovanou volným pohybem pracovníků v rámci EU.

A little background: I love Ukraine and want them to make it. My kids here in Maryland personally fundraised thousands of dollars for Ukraine after the start of the war. 1/2 went to gunshot first aid kits for the front line (as requested and coordinated by our local Ukrainian

Ukraine's Demographic Disaster The war has made Ukraine's already catastrophic population outlook much worse. If it goes on much longer, there won't be much of a country left. The Lowest Birth Rate in History Ukraine likely has the lowest crude birth rate of any country ever

"Some of the most prominent Republicans in the country are waging war on the revenue model that powers [suburbs]. In doing so, they pander to retired baby boomers who are eager to shift taxes away from their homes and onto those still working."

There is only one developed country on Earth with a healthy birthrate, so it is essential that we understand how they do it. What is Israel's secret, and is it replicable? Theoretically yes, it is. See the article below.

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Social Security and Medicare costs are absolutely obliterating everything else. "115 trillion dollar deficit over 2024-2054"

Most of America is dying, especially rural areas where young people have left. Now consider that the United States has a more youthful age structure than almost anywhere in Europe or East Asia.

It is much harder to raise a family, especially a larger family, when both parents work full time. Yet many people choose this, even when it is suboptimal, as insurance in case of divorce. Fertility has been a lot lower as a result.

For most of history, having children was the path to security in old age. You invested in children when you were young, and then you had someone to take care of you when you were old. Those who invested the most in bearing and raising children saw the greatest benefit. We have

For most of history, having children was the path to security in old age. You invested in children when you were young, and then you had someone to take care of you when you were old. Those who invested the most in bearing and raising children saw the greatest benefit. We have

Nothing else matters if birth rate is far below replacement rate

From Fifty Survivors to 35 Million Descendants: The Remarkable Legacy of the Mayflower The first Thanksgiving was a bittersweet affair. Of the Mayflower's 102 passengers, just around 50 had survived the first winter, with the help of the Wampanoag tribe. Yet this small group of

From Fifty Survivors to 35 Million Descendants: The Remarkable Legacy of the Mayflower The first Thanksgiving was a bittersweet affair. Of the Mayflower's 102 passengers, just around 50 had survived the first winter, with the help of the Wampanoag tribe. Yet this small group of

A new phrase just dropped: Total Boomer Luxury Communism. Total because spending on seniors squeezes out the young. Luxury Communism because social spending flows uphill to the richest segment of society. By the time young people get theirs, it may be too late to have a family.