(((Josh)))
@gefgest
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per one prominent bathing suit enthusiast: “a complete stranger Reply Guy” 🏳️🌈✡️🇺🇸🇨🇦🐵🥑🚇🗽
Philly by way of FL
Joined October 2019
For all the recent big job cut announcements, layoffs remained low by historical standards at the end of 2025. They're no longer at the historic lows of the post-pandemic period, but they haven't really risen further in recent months.
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I don’t need the FYP algorithm to pander to me or confirm all my biases but force-feeding me conservative hacks about WaPo layoffs or land acknowledgements (four days after the Grammys) or whatever Mamdani’s latest low-level hire used to tweet is just giving me people to mute
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We cannot have a federal republic where it takes only 51 votes to dramatically change the law in ways that can tear apart the country. It should take 5.
I have said before and I will say again: The filibuster is one of the few things holding the country together. Making a trifecta truly winner-take-all in a highly polarized, increasingly unstable transcontinental empire would be an unmitigated disaster for the country.
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I moved to Philly from South Florida last Fall having lived in Florida my whole life. At 31°F this morning I was sweating profusely. It really does happen fast.
I was a little worried about moving to Minnesota––I'm a desert/beach guy and have never had to consistently deal with sub-zero temperatures––but the transition from "40 degrees? better stay indoors all day" to "0 degrees? no big deal" happens quicker than you think
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We haven’t had a nonpartisan poll released of the primary all cycle but based on this SUSA poll I find it hard to believe Dems would want the LG of a governor who’s blown things like he has
KSTP/SURVEYUSA: Our new poll numbers on approval ratings for President Trump and Governor Walz, both at all-time lows. We also also surveyed Minnesotans on Trump immigration enforcement and tactics used by ICE. Plus, should local law enforcement help with immigration enforcement?
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This is the candidate Tina Smith endorsed? Actually you know what, Smith is an under-performer, so this checks out.
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What does it say that Elon’s algorithm is promoting a post like this in my FYP?
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TX in 2024 was less R-leaning than IL and MA were D-leaning in 2008, only a bit more than ME was D-leaning in 2012, and less R-leaning than MT was in 2004 or 2016.
Since it's already an inferno, might as well toss another log: no Democrat is going to win the Texas Senate race anyway because Joe Biden's immigration record so deeply poisoned the party's brand there
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After saying Saturday it would gross a better-than-expected $8 million over the weekend, the studio's initial weekend estimates reported yesterday had it at $7.042 million with Saturday falling 20.7% - suggesting fandom front-loading - but Sunday only another 20%.
The demographics of the audience (old women) and likely excellent WoM for people in that bubble may make it leggier than I would’ve expected
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The demographics of the audience (old women) and likely excellent WoM for people in that bubble may make it leggier than I would’ve expected
The Melania movie is gonna be a huge flop. It needs $150 million to break even, due to its $40 million production budget plus the $35 million in marketing.
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The reason @nvidia donated millions of dollars toward Trump’s inauguration and Trump’s destruction of the East Wing of the White House was so Trump would give themthe green light to sell billions of dollars of chips to the Chinese military industrial complex
From @RepMoolenaar @ChinaSelect: “NVIDIA provided extensive technical support that enabled DeepSeek—now integrated into People’s Liberation Army (PLA) systems and a demonstrated cyber security risk—to achieve frontier AI capabilities” https://t.co/k87ZWtbnOz
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Citing the Blue Chip folks is so funny when they keep way underestimating growth.
atlantafed.org
GDPNow forecasting model provides a
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NGDP’s growing ~7% per annum right now! What are we even doing here?
NEIL DUTTA VS. THE INFLATION HAWKS Great contribution from Neil at @RenMacLLC in today's Odd Lots newsletter, arguing against the notion of upside inflationary risks Read the whole thing here -- > https://t.co/oovpxbGKpb
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Also new for @PuckNews > I obtained a private polling memo from Blue Rose Research testing which Dems had the most powerful ICE messaging with voters after the Alex Pretti killing On top? Josh Shapiro Subscribe to The Best & The Brightest here > https://t.co/k8U9spsTuQ
New @PuckNews > Our new poll with @EchelonInsights asked voters if Trump deserves the Nobel Peace Prize — By a 67-27 margin, voters say no — Majority of independents (!) say ICE is making them less safe — 58% say county is on wrong track And more!
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More context
Florida has had a *massive* slowdown of domestic migration. - In 2022, FL saw an increase of 310,892 people from domestic migration. - In 2025, only 22,517, down more than 90%. Housing costs and home insurance finally biting?
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FL benefited so much from the huge increase in net international migration under Biden even as natural decline seemed to accelerate, and that aforementioned increase has now rapidly reversed as net domestic migration also collapsed. Anyway:
My hot take is FL’s under-65 population very well may be falling right now, between natural change, immigration flows, and interstate migration after a huge CoL increase. Democrats have an opening if they’re willing to try, but instead you get this chronic learned helplessness.
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