TIM WALZ SAW MY TWEET CALLING HIM OLD WTF NOOOOOOOOOO

Wake County has been a blessing for NC Democrats as it has rapidly grown into an enormous dem vote generator over the last two decades, with some dems such as Josh Stein netting nearly 300,000 votes from it. This is mainly due to its high suburban college-ed white population.

Thurston County, home to Washington's capital, Olympia, has seen movement left in recent years due to its very suburban white college-educated population. However, these shifts have been rather muted due to the rural and working-class southern half bolting rightward post-Obama.

Nominating Crockett would likely narrow Dems senate majority paths considerably.

Texas is already a VERY hard lift for Dems but Republicans are seemingly on the path to nominating their weakest possible candidate and Dems have to compete in these reach states if they are actually serious about flipping the senate.

Unfortunately Crockett would simply run away with the primary if she ran despite her being the worst dem candidate by quite some distance. Nominating her would almost certainly completely shut Dems out of Texas as a path to winning a senate majority.

If your seat being completely annahilated in redistricting and you’re almost 80 years old won’t make you retire I don’t know what will

TX-18 had its last two reps in a row die in office 8 months apart because they were in their 70s and now Al Green who is nearly 80 is running for it…

CO-03 will no doubt end up as a serious battleground in 2026 as Dems seek to flip back the house and offset redistricting losses. Mesa county will be crucial to watch to see whether Dems whittle down the GOP margin enough here to flip CO-03 or if it saves Republicans once again.

Mesa County historically has been red enough to create a comfortable cushion for Republicans in CO-03. However, over the Trump era it has moved left rapidly and just as quickly eating away at that GOP cushion in CO-03 leading to some close calls like in 2022.

Mesa County is critical next year for the House. It contains Western CO’s largest city, Grand Junction, and its seen dems make significant gains. This is crucial as it is the anchor in CO-03 keeping it in the GOP column and chipping away at it is vital for Dems to flip the seat.

Interestingly, despite all the hype around turnout in Northern Virginia, its share of the vote declined in 2025 compared to all past elections!

Looking back at the most recent elections in Virginia in 2025, Central Virginia increased its share of the statewide vote quite substantially, while turnout in Southwestern Virginia fell off a cliff, with its statewide share declining by up to 15%

If you're wondering, the 2020->2024 trend map looks very different

It's interesting to me that the 2021->2025 Gov and 2016->2020 Pres trend maps are basically identical

With some effort from dems and a better turnout situation, this is absolutely a gettable race for dems. However, Republicans have likely been spooked into spending a lot of money and running their own GOTV operations here, so it's still a very uphill battle.

Not to mention the vastly increased turnout and margins from the now eliminated Huffman in Southlake. Wambsganss won't have that luxury in the runoff. Without those increased turnout/margins, it would have narrowed the margin down to ~R+3

This nearly 60% Hispanic Trump+10->Trump+1.9->Trump+10 (Also Cruz+0.3->Cruz+3.8) seat all of a sudden looks really shaky!

The fact that Travis managed to outvote Tarrant is insane!

Even in places without any partisan elections, the electorate was very favorable to Democrats. Just look at Texas, which absolutely never has dem turnout advantages in off years, an electorate ~1 point bluer than 2018 was produced mainly off of super high urban turnout.

And this goes the other way too! If we get a Dem president in 2028 Republicans may very well sweep all the VA offices again!