
David Shor
@davidshor
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Head of Data Science at Blue Rose Research, based in NYC, originally from Miami. I try to elect Democrats. Views are my own. he/himš¹
New York, NY
Joined November 2007
Very excited to announce that weāre hiring for an AI-focused software engineering roles (both general SWE and ML-infra) at Blue Rose! . This is a great chance to work with giant novel datasets and cutting edge ML/AI to help defeat Trump in 2026!
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RT @ZacharyDonnini: The biggest story of the 2024 election was large gains for Trump with Nonwhite voters. New registration data shows aā¦.
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The bias of the electoral college from R+2 in 2020 to R+0.1 in 2024 due to Trump improving his vote share so dramatically with immigrants in places like Florida or New York. If you use projected 2030 population instead of 2020 it goes from R+0.1 to R+0.3!.
Due to Trump's strong gains in hispanic, asian, and immigrant neighborhoods of all races, the partisan bias of the electoral college disappeared this year. The house and senate still have meaningful pro-Republican bias, but senate bias has almost halved from four years ago.
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I think this is overwrought - people should be thinking about this in terms of tipping point state margin - national margin rather than map painting scenarios. Lots can happen in six years, but the bias of the electoral college is probably going to be a lot lower than in 2020.
New: The ticking timebomb alarming Democrats: the 2030 reapportionment in the Electoral College. Red states gain Electoral College seats, blue states lose. The "blue wall" is gone: .
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Excited to announce that weāre hiring junior and senior analytics and research roles! . This is a great chance to work to directly with some of the biggest progressive orgs in the country and help them make better data driven decisions - come work with us!
Very excited to announce that weāre hiring for an AI-focused software engineering roles (both general SWE and ML-infra) at Blue Rose! . This is a great chance to work with giant novel datasets and cutting edge ML/AI to help defeat Trump in 2026!
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RT @pescami: @McKenzieAWilson of Blue Rose Research joins The Gist to dissect why Dems keep losing the branding warāalienating language, igā¦.
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RT @McKenzieAWilson: Joined Mike's @PescaGist podcast to talk about why Democrats lost in November, how the affordability crisis is voters'ā¦.
open.spotify.com
The Gist Ā· Episode
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@RebeccaforWI is exactly the kind of candidate who has a proven track record appealing to working class Americans and is exactly the kind of messenger we need to represent the Democratic party- please donate to her campaign if you can.
secure.actblue.com
Show your support with a contribution.
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A reminder that @RebeccaforWI was in the top 1% of Democratic challengers last year and that folks should give her money.
Happy to support @RebeccaforWI at a town meeting in the beautiful town of Viroqua, WI. In a town of 4,400 people, 1,000 showed up at our event. In rural towns and urban cities, Americans want a government that represents all, not just billionaires.
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RT @b_schaffner: it is especially striking to see how non-religious the Democratic Party has become over the past two decades https://t.co/ā¦.
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RT @SidKhurana3607: Tale of two different Houston-area cities, 2012-2024:. South Houston (90% Hispanic): D+25 ā D+43 ā D+19 ā R+2. W. Univeā¦.
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RT @VineMapper: Largest Pacific Island Subgroup by County #pacificislander #hawaii #polynesian #micronesian #guam #USA #America #GIS #VineMā¦.
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RT @TomRodriguezDC: @ZacharyDonnini I went a little further at looked at all Western national elections over the past year. The Gen Z/underā¦.
thehill.com
Are Americans an anomaly? Recent elections say no.
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RT @ZacharyDonnini: I think itās notable that this lines up well with other 2024 election data, like David Shorās postmortem on Democraticā¦.
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RT @davidshor: @arpitrage @justjoshinyou13 @ryancbriggs weāre at ~ the 85th percentile outcome on AI revenue so far relative to expectationā¦.
manifold.markets
This market matches Sum of OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI revenues from the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey by AI Digest. This market will use AI Digest as its resolution source. [image]We will resolve to the sum...
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RT @ZacharyDonnini: At the heart of the Democratic collapse: young White men are registering as Republicans in unprecedented numbers. Genā¦.
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Hoping on the "I may be young but I'm ready" trend! . Thinking I might do it again with more riffs?
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RT @cart0graf: š§µAfter several unsuccessful attempts I've managed to map the 2017 French presidential election in Paris and its inner suburbā¦.
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An addendum is that while we continue to have concerns with CES weighting, their final estimate is that non-voters voted for Trump, in contrast to the Boinica/Grumbach claims that Harris won them by ~20 points.
Seems like an important update to this claim: using the voter validated CES, if everyone had voted, Trump would have done slightly better
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