Gbenga Ajilore
@gbenga_ajilore
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Economist. Sports/Movie nerd. Half-marathoner. Bassoonist (as heard on NPR & POLITICO). Personal account. Views & opinions my own; RT=/=endorsement. (he/him)
Joined October 2012
As we talk about the #UI cliff occurring tonight, let's make sure we emphasize that people will not be "falling" into poverty - they will be pushed into poverty. Poverty is a policy choice (and in this case, choosing*not* to sign a bipartisan bill).
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The Black-White unemployment ratio since the pandemic:. March 2020: 1.68.April 2020: 1.18.May 2020: 1.35 .June 2020: 1.52.July 2020: 1.59.August 2020: 1.78. Not good. #MindTheGap.
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When you hear people touting the "low" unemployment for Blacks, what they are really saying is that Blacks should be happy at unemployment levels that which Whites would riot at. Something to keep in mind on #JobsDay.
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A recession could be miles away β or it could be just around the corner
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My Twitter presence will be muted as I move into the admin, but this is an important thread that has driven a lot of my work on the Black rural South & why we need to combat the narrative about low-wage labor markets. Revitalizing rural areas start here.
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Wow, school superintendents in rural areas are equipping school busses with Wi-Fi so kids can get an education. Rural residents drive to Taco Bell so they can apply online for UI, but the moon is getting 4G before them. <sigh>.
Nokia says it has been tapped by NASA to build the first cellular communications network on the moon.
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This monthβs #JobsReport shows unemployment fell to 13.3% and for African Americans it ticked up to 16.8%. The ratio has risen to 1.35, which is higher meaning that in the midst of this βgood newsβ we are quick to forget about Black people (sound familiar?)
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Man, I've been waiting for this headline forever. π₯π₯.
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Looking at what is happening with the Dow seems like a good time to re-up this.
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#JobsReport Black unemployment rate for January 2019: 6.8%; For Whites: 3.5%, Asians: 3.1%, Hispanics: 4.5%. We really need to talk about how to close these gaps (among others).
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I keep seeing all these "History will not remember them well," - then think about how I drive down Jefferson Davis Hwy to R.E. Lee school, while hearing about Ulysses Grant's corrupt administration & his drinking habits. History doesn't work like people think it does. .
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It is frustrating how certain causes of inflation (price gouging) are dismissed as ridiculous but other causes (labor shortage/fiscal stimulus) continue to be touted as key drivers. There is a theme here about 'who benefits' that is not limited to inflation. π€.
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Once again, my friends are too good to me. From my friend and @Marketplace listener, @kristelee. (cc: @kairyssdal)
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I think I'm going to be a broken record about this, but we have to ask "for whom?". Unemployment is falling, but does not fall equally at the same rate. We *must* be cognizant of who gets to go back down to pre-covid levels and who ends up staying above.
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@EmilyRPeck I will be starting Monday as a Senior Advisor at the USDA in Rural Development.
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Tried to do this when I was on my Nirvana kick, but it was too hard. I still struggled, but here it is. Nirvana - "Come As You Are" #QuarantineHobby
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I know people are dunking on the NFL about "race-norming." but this approach is prevalent throughout society. Case in point, economists who argue that the economy may overheat is based on potential output (which assumes Black unemployment to be 10%).
The NFL says it will halt the use of βrace-normingβ β which assumed Black players started out with lower cognitive functioning β in a $1 billion settlement of brain injury claims. The practice had made it harder for Black players to qualify.
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After a year of rigorous & thoughtful work on rural issues, @willingham_zoe & I are proud to present this pioneering report βA Path to Rural Resilience in Americaβ. This report calls for investing in rural futures & committing to left-behind regions.
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The title of this piece is so infuriating. How do you equate a fund to combat racism to a windfall? π€¬π€¬. I would say do better, but we all know our economy (and media framing) is designed solely for white men.
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I don't know who needs to hear this but if you get a PhD in Econ & work in policy, that does not make you an "activist," it makes you an economist. There are many in academia who are "activists" they just aren't called that. They are called "thinkers.".
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One of the best parts of @PixarSoul is the appreciation of teaching and teachers. It doesn't matter how many students you reach because each one you reach is special. (A lesson I could've used when I was in academia).
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@TrevonDLogan I wonder what those shares look like if you take out student athletes, too. (A lot of in-state Black students probably attend the local HBCU).
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This having been a tough week, I was not going to post a bassoon video but today, June 5th is Breonna Taylor's birthday. So, Happy Birthday #BreonnaTaylor.
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Awesome news at #ASSA2022, the @NEAEcon will be creating a new think-tank, the Black Economics Research Center for the 21st Century (BERC), led by James Stewart (@doctordynamite).
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That is, the natural rate of unemployment for African Americans is 10%. As in, when the economy is at full employment, the unemployment rate for African Americans *should* be 10% while it is 5% for Whites. Make that make sense!
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I made this meme in August. I have literally aged since I first posted this.
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I have a new brief out on rural African Americans in the South. Whatβs that you say? You didnβt realize there are Black people who live in the South and not just in Atlanta, New Orleans, or Miami? Why yes, let me tell you. (1/11)
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I'm sure someone wlse has made this point better than me, but thhis sentiment really bugs me because it feels like Rosa Parks doesn't count. Having RBG be the 2nd woman is still not good. Make that point, don't qualify it just to make Parks ineligible.
(And yes, Iβm aware Rosa Parks lay in honor, a distinction for private citizens. She was obviously deserving. Doesnβt change the fact we have never had a female government official esteemed or ranked highly enough to lie in *state* in our Capitol.).
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I'm "record a song off the radio using a cassette" old.
How many of yβall βburn a CDβ old? π.
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It has been fascinating how far and wide all the congratulations I (and my parents) have gotten about my new job.
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This CBO thing is really bugging me and I can't let it go. This @employamerica piece describes some of the issues with some of the assumptions made by the CBO. This is a great piece and you should read all of it. (1/n)
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But first β in @kairyssdal voice β letβs do the numbers. African Americans are still seeing double digit unemployment rates while whites are down to 6%.
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This reminds of the scene in Oppenheimer when Oppenheimer tells Lawrence that fusion couldn't work and showed him the math. Lawrence agreed with the math and then showed Oppenheimer the actual experiment that worked.
2023 taught us that it's clearly possible in practice to have a deceleration in inflation without major damage to the labor market. Now 2024 will tell us whether or not it's possible in theory, as well.
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Everyone keeps asking whether this inflation is transitory. You know what outcome is NOT transitory? High Black unemployment rates. Right now it is 9.2% & Powell is correct that its not time to moderate. As @kairyssdal says, if we stop talking about it, we don't talk about it.
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I love how economists have no problem butting their noses into so many other fields to tell them how to fix problems, but when it comes to EJMR they are all of sudden at a loss for ideas.
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Would've been nice to see some Black people on this panel, some people from non-Ivy/non-private institutions. It feels like this conversation is for a select group.
What exactly does fairness look like in college admissions, and how would fairer admissions impact our society?. Join @BrookingsGov for a webinar, and use #CollegeAdmissions to ask questions!. ποΈ: Wed, July 26.π: 2pm - 3:30pm EDT.π to register:
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I've gotten a bunch of new followers (close to 4K!), though its mostly due to the struggle these past 3 weeks. My TL is nornally brownies, basketball, & bassooning. So, here is a light-hearted song I recorded for this week. #QuarantineHobby . Be well, all. ππΏπ
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To piggyback off of Anna's great point is to think about the research questions that we have lost (and will continue to lose) because of the lack of diversity in our profession. The research that can and does inform policy. Very relevant at this moment.
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Oh boy. where do I start?. I'm just going to share two figures, but I want to remind the senator it is not August 2019. We are over a year beyond that.
gap btwn the unemployment rate for Black Americans & the overall unemployment rate fell to a record low of 1.7% in August of 2019; by contrast the gap averaged 5.4% in the Obama administrationβ¦more shared prosperity under Pres @realDonaldTrump.
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White men are doing mostly fine without more economic relief from Washington, but just about everyone else is suffering
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Todayβs #JobsReport was not good. While the Black-White unemployment gap narrowed, it wasnβt for good reasons and we will see why with labor force participation and EPOP. (1/5)
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I got an F in Intro to Statistics my senior year of college. I am an economist with over 20 publications now. Β―\_(γ)_/Β―.
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Thinking more about that EJMR paper and how a blog post from there tried to derail Lisa Cook from being appointed to the Federal Reserve Board. Ignoring the site is not the answer (because the harmful effects won't naturally disappear).
Disgusting. Trying to discredit Lisa Cook from a racist Economic Job Market Rumors blog attacks on her. That's the travesty.
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I'm kind of bad at promoting myself. I posted a thread of policing research I did. Turns out I forgot another publication and some (relevant) writings for @urbaninstitute. First here is original thread: .
At @amprog, my work is on elevating rural areas by redefining the narrative about who lives there & the dynamics. I also study racial disparities in the labor market. Before then, I studied racial bias in policing but gave up because the work felt futile.
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I have a new piece out today highlighting the spread of COVID-19 through rural America. This is something we need to care as these communities are already getting hit hard.
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@besttrousers I'm going to be a broken record during this lockdown but that is a lot of white people.
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This monthβs #JobsReport shows unemployment fell to 11.1% & for African Americans it fell to 15.4%. Many would tout this as a good thing, but this continues to ignore racial disparities. To wit, the Black-White unemployment ratio has risen to 1.5. #MindTheGap
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I wish people being critical of the NBA players going back to play realize they just tackled voter suppression by getting owners to create polling places. More action than what policymakers have done. (1/2).
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I like how people are talking about the count of unemployed that the Fed is forecasting from their announcement. What is missing is WHO is going to be unemployed. We need to be explicit about the who will comprise the millions of unemployed over the next year.
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@imbernomics @haralduhlig Scott, you wanted to give him the benefit of the doubt but he now has shown you who he is. You need to respond accordingly. Because what you are seeing now I guarantee you there were grad students and other scholars who were on the receiving end of this tone.
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Spending a nice Saturday afternoon reading @svaneksmith Machiavelli for Women. This is not just a great book for women, but just as (if not more important) for men. (1/n)
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At @amprog, my work is on elevating rural areas by redefining the narrative about who lives there & the dynamics. I also study racial disparities in the labor market. Before then, I studied racial bias in policing but gave up because the work felt futile.
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Going back to this Journal of Political Economy debacle, I am reminded of Steven Levitt's review of the economics of crime for JPE's 125th anniversary in 2018(?!?). This was his punchline. This is why Economics has nothing to say now.
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I joined more than 125 other economists to call for additional stimulus funding including direct checks to boost families and the economy #MoneyForThePeople
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This has been a hard week. Yet it has been clarifying as all the issues we care about have coalesced into a unifying framework. We are fighting a virus, a recession, racism, and challenges to democracy. But its the same fight. Todayβs #JobsReport provides that throughline.
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@kairyssdal: "That is fairly bleak, that we cannot count on Washington to fix this economy when it so desperately needs it.". Me: "But that's the truth.". I think I said some good things on @Marketplace today, but this line I'm proud of.
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I really appreciate @TheStalwart's post this morning about the labor market. Its okay to acknowledge when something is good.
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"We went from picking cotton to picking presidents.".
"It changes the results of the election in Michigan if you take out Wayne county."
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My son just found my stress ball and tossed it to me, saying "Its #JobsDay, you said it might be stressful." ππ.
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I have a new column today about the persistent Black-white unemployment gap that came from my continuing #JobsDay analysis on racial disparities in the labor market. I show this racial gap (during this pandemic) is due to structural racism. (1/5)
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Days like this make me think about Bill Spriggs and what he would highlight on #JobsDay. White unemployment (High School Diploma): 3.5.Black unemployment (Bachelor's Degree): 3.6.
Educational attainment does not cure racial differences in unemployment rate. They persist at each educational level, particularly between white and black workers. @dodsonadvocate @ValerieRWilson #JobsReport
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This is horrifying. βRather than assuming the headline unemployment rate in 2005 is the natural rate, the CBO assumes that the unemployment rate by demographic group in 2005 represents the natural rate for that demographic.ββ @employamerica.
This @tragicbios piece is a pretty thorough flensing with lots of useful info on how the CBO output gap estimate being deployed against the stimulus proposal is constructed, including some particularly damning assumptions about unemployment rates by race (
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This is such the wrong framing because hunger/nutrition are rural issues and one department cannot represent all of rural America. It is this faulty thinking that has limited the potential of all rural communities.
A fight is breaking out over President-elect Joe Bidenβs choice for agriculture secretary, pitting Democrats eager to emphasize issues like hunger and nutrition against traditionalists who believe the department should represent rural America
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A lot of great people named (yay for Black economists!) today to @Transition46, but I'm really happy to see @EvermoreMichele named to the Labor team. She has been doing the Lord's work on Unemployment Insurance and will be a great addition. ππΎππΎππΎ.
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I know I'm a day late (though not a dollar short), but it was really nice to hear both @janellecj & @mlholder999 on @Marketplace talking about systemic racism, misogyny, and the racial wealth gap. #BlackWomenBest
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I see a lot of people slam dunking on the South using this figure. But what this graph probably shows is the lack of resources and ability to shelter-in-place (especially in rural Southern areas). Let's use this to improve rural infrastructure.
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Next piece talked about how Native communities are always left out of the conversation on police violence, even though they suffer quite a bit (which sounds similar to the COVID conversation): @AERIPecon .
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I know people are going to see this as a crisis averted. This is wrong. There was damage done that we will never recover from. Just sucks.
McCarthy and Biden reach agreement in principle on debt limit
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Me knowing everyone is going to call this a decent #JobsReport knowing Black unemployment (10.3%) is STILL nearly twice the white rate (5.9%). May 2020: 1.35 .June 2020: 1.52.July 2020: 1.59.August 2020: 1.78.September 2020: 1.71.October 2020: 1.8.November 2020: 1.75
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There is this one part that horrified me, as I tweeted just a bit ago. CBO assumes there are age-race-sex-education specific natural rates of unemployment. (2/n).
This is horrifying. βRather than assuming the headline unemployment rate in 2005 is the natural rate, the CBO assumes that the unemployment rate by demographic group in 2005 represents the natural rate for that demographic.ββ @employamerica.
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Here is my brief from February of this year explaining why this has been and continues to be a problem.
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My heart breaks about Bill's passing. He was an incredible mentor/person. There is so much I can say about him, but right now I think about this tweet. Everyone talks about Black unemployment, but he was the first to truly highlight the systemic issues in the labor market.
@gbenga_ajilore @MattBruenig The trend to rebound to the 2:1 gap is proof the 2:1 gap in Black-to-white unemployment is an equilibrium of the systemic racism baked into the labor market. Having an exogenous shock to the system, we now see it re-calibrate before our eyes.
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@kairyssdal Jif is a brand of peanut butter, gif (hard g) is what you share on social media. (This is a hill I will die on).
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I thought the $600 was keeping people out of the labor market?
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ββββββββββββββββ.ββββββββββββββββ.ββββββββββββββββ. Rural America =/= White .ββββββββββββββββ.ββββββββββββββββ.ββββββββββββββββ.
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This headline is so infuriating. It assumes that record breaking GDP growth, decreases in the child poverty, and a relatively hot/tight labor market were a failure. And the sad thing is I know there are analysts out there who believe that. (h/t: @davidmwessel)
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Black women's unemployment rate went from 7% to 5%! π. I'm going to need to see an analysis of this story, but I am hoping this is a good trend. #JobsDay.
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