8. The writer's boldest assertion: Xi has alienated other party leaders, and the US must exploit this. They argue if US imposes costs on Xi's actions, that strengthens the standing of anti-Xi officials. And US messaging should be about Xi, not the CCP and its 90 million members.
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Thread: Some say the “Longer Telegram” by a “former senior government official” is bland in its analysis of US-China policy. But some parts are notable and a departure from consensus opinion in DC, even if there’s much that US officials will agree with.
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2. The most striking passage is on the “red lines” that the writer says the US should convey to China. Though many US officials & analysts denounce China for its military expansionism & actions in the region, there’s no agreement on whether US should draw clear red lines on this.
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3. The US has the military capability to act against China on the East and South China Seas and on Taiwan, but does it have the popular political will? And among those issues, there's a hierarchy. Most US officials are more willing to act on Taiwan than on reefs in the SCS.
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4. We saw the conversation on Taiwan in mainstream US foreign policy circles shift last year.
@RichardHaass
& David Sacks wrote a FA essay arguing the US should draw a clear line with China on Taiwan and end ambiguity.
@ElbridgeColby
told me the same:
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5. The writer's greatest departure from mainstream DC thinking is on Russia, and one might be able to identify them from this. The writer advocates for a US détente w/ Russia and even criticizes US sanctions against Russia — sanctions imposed b/c of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.
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6. The writer is more Kissinger than Kennan in advising the US to woo Russia. They want a mirror image of Nixon's opening with China, which was done to get China's help in countering the USSR. They say the US must break the recent "strategic condominium" between China and Russia.
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7. Former US official
@GrahamTAllison
is alarmed by China-Russia ties & advises pulling Russia from China. See this w/
@DimitriSimes
: Former Aus PM
@MrKRudd
has discussed US-China-Russia: The paper cites ex-officials Allison & Rudd.
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9. Western analysts always seek “moderates” within authoritarian systems. Of course there are disagreements within the ranks of a political body. The question is whether outsiders have accurate insights — and whether they can operationalize that. US has a poor record on this.
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10. The writer says if US stresses opposing Xi rather than China or the CCP, it would help defuse nationalism. But the reality is complicated. In the minds of many Chinese, Xi is synonymous with a strong future. I wrote this in 2018 and still believe it:
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@ewong
Does anonymous name the alienated moderates in the CCP, or let me guess they also prefer to remain anonymous?
Xi is popular with the Party and the Party is popular with the public. He delivers. Ideologically, I'd be happy to be wrong, but prove it, with evidence.
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