Edward N Luttwak
@ELuttwak
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Historian and Rancher
San Joaquin, Bolivia
Joined March 2020
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Much of my work is more "military" than strategic and thus requires tactical and operational analysis before one can consider the theater level & finally grand strategy. But the technical level also counts, for which I must rely on experts:
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Ukraine's forces have increased numerically (recruits +volunteers vastly outnumber casualties) Therefore their need for weapons is very urgent. With their forces much reduced since 1991,NATO countries have depots full weapons, but are v slow to send them. Public pressure needed
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Every day Ukrainians die because they lack equipment & supplies that sit idle in the depots of the French, German, Italian, and Spanish armed forces. The US, UK, and ex-Warsaw Pact countries have done much more than their share because Europe's most populous countries will not.
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Was in South Africa under Apartheid. No black nurses. in Israel Arabs account for 30% of hospital doctors. No African judges. In Israel an ex President was sentenced to prison by an Arab judge. Arab entrepreneurs ? Many . Academics who cite Apartheid viz Israel reveal ignorance
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My grandson is White, able-bodied and likes girls. That makes him an undesirable for the admission officials of the top US universities, mostly themselves "diverse". Now they have dropped SAT objective testing scores to deny him a chance to outscore. No foreign enemy is worse
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C'e' un deficit di Democrazia in Italia. Il sistema creato per evitare un secondo Mussolini, ha prodotto 2 non-eletti per governare le 2 grandi crisi, Monti la finanziaria, Conte la sanitaria. Draghi aspetta il suo turno. Altrove preferiscono scegliere chi li governa.
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When Gramsci discovered the secret of "progressive" political dominance via intellectual dominance he specified that it was not obtainable with better arguments but only by controlling "the means of (intellectual) production": publishing houses, editorial boards. Now Social media
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friends of mine are starting a new university: admission by written exams only, no US-style bureaucrats ("Deans"), just professors, cleaners & students. No funding for student life, sports, community service etc, just teaching & learning.
Staffed by refugees ex Ivy League
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The greatest lesson of the Ukraine war came right at the start: if Americans and the EU so agree, they can cut off any country from the world economy. In spite of all the talk about the "diffusion of power", it is still a G-7 Euro-American world, not a G-20 world, incl China
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As the author of the standard work on the subject (Coup d'Etat, Harvard U Press+ 29 other editions in 24 languages) I can certify that Trump's actions, however irritating, are not a Coup d'Etat. Of 187 Coups studied none included lawyers & all required serving soldiers. Hysteria
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Was on an Italian TV program. Of 5 others interviewed, one declared that Italy should not sent weapons to UKR because they will only cause more deaths. Another faithfully repeated Putin's accusation (US plot) and a third talked of Azov batt Nazis. Only one clear Ukrainian voice
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Putin should not survive his Ukraine adventure: all its premises have been invalidated: Zelensky did not flee, the Gov did not collapse, the armed forces did not dissolve, Russian forces did not seize every city, and Kiev's population is not obediently awaiting Russian rule.
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Israel's emerging victory in Gaza is two-sided: the physical destruction of the enemy, and a v low number of casualties. It turns out that Hamas is better at killing the unarmed than to fight highly trained soldiers & and that Israeli-made equipment really works. Morale ? V high
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Nell'ultima elezione in Ucraina l'estrema destra vinse il 3% dei voti. Cioe' l'estrema destra, neo-Nazisti compresi, e' molto piu piccola in Ucraina che in qualsiasi altro paese Europeo. Ma nella TV Italiana si sono visti filmati di neo-Nazisti Ucraini ad nauseam. Perche ?
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Non e' vero che l'Italia non ha avuto una politica energetica. Ne ha avuto molte: No Triv ( se c'e' gas naturale non si estrae). No nucleare, per carita', fanno paura. Nuove dighe ? Neanche per idea. Terminal per regasificare il gas liquido ? A no ! Non qui ! Ne li', Ne la'.
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Cannot fathom the military illiteracy that depicts the possible arrival of 16,000 Syrian troops in Ukraine as significant. They only ever fought Arab civilians with few or no weapons (& did v poorly viz Kurds). If they do arrive they will quickly run off to Germany as refugees
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Will Poland close the road and rail connections between Germany and Russia ? If so, that would be the most powerful of all sanctions
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My account of the war in Gaza: why so few IDF casualties why such high Hamas losses. Unbelievably, Hamas leaders thought that Israel would not dare to invade Gaza. This war is reviving the idea of Victory as a war aim.
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Not too late to send large numbers of small arms and point & shoot anti-tank weapons to Ukraine via Poland or Slovakia. There are warehouses full of both (+ their ammo) across NATO because of the drastic reduction in force-levels. Ukrainians are resisting bravely and deserve help
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I find it extraordinary that otherwise serious people explain the deterioration of US-China relations by citing this or that US President or policy. China's relations with Australia, India, and Japan have followed exactly the same trajectory from optimism to confrontation.
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At this point the US must accept more strategic risk (eg supplying anti-ship missiles to drive off the Russian navy) and the EU must accept more energy-supply risk (by cutting gas imports to 50% of today's volume). Logic: calculated risks better than more war's unlimited risks
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It seems that Xi Jinping's China has misjudged India -it is paying a high price for its border violence; previously it had misjudged Japan, which it thought would be intimidated into handing over the Senkaku islands; and of course it misjudged the US, no longer passive as it was
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The silly tale of Russian recruitment of 16,000 "experienced Syrian street fighters" for the Ukraine war is now officially dead, while the Chechens that Kadyrov really sent are actually dead. Alas no such happy remedy for Russian artillery & missile attacks against civilians.
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At a gathering in the Hague, the chief of Afghan Intel sitting to my right on the speakers' podium pleaded for more money and fraternal solidarity in the struggle against fanaticism. Fraternally, I grasped his left wrist offering to exchange my $20 Timex for his gold Rolex.
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Today's Washington Post attack against Georgia Meloni (1 per day) is a vicious cartoon depicting Mussolini shouting "I am back !". Why the furious anger ? Her planned immigration policy is less restrictive than Denmark's..The reason: she does not actively favor gender confusion
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Am frankly surprised that the Silicon valley magnates, with hordes of political consultants on retainer, so foolishly exposed their "exorbitant power without responsibility" by decreeing LIFETIME bans against Trump. Even his worst enemies will now want drastic anti-trust action.
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I am outraged that the CIA failed to investigate & punish those responsible for the leak of its investigation of the Khashoggi killing. So, the CIA fails to generate useful intelligence on Beijing or Moscow but it can spy on a US ally & leak the results to benefit both + Iran
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The Taliban are capturing big stocks of US weapons abandoned by Afghan Gov soldiers who should have used them to fight. But they joined for the wages not to fight. The sons of the Kabul elite enriched by foreign aid are absent from their ranks. Not cowards, just too busy in Dubai
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Who is promoting self-discipline in contemporary American society ? Who is telling people to avoid narcotics, get up in the morning to look for work if unemployed, prepare children to go to school, receive them afterwords, to save money instead of frivolously spending it..Silence
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Prudent poker player Putin who four times rose from the table with imperial gains (Abkhazia, S Ossetia, Crimea & this month, Belarus), is suddenly gambling recklessly at the roulette table by invading Europe's largest country with an army much too small for the task. Finis Putin
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Reports from the Ukraine are filled with wishful thinking and conscious disinformation but it seems certain that Russian forces have suffered losses and that the speed of their advance is unimpressive. Now is the time for aid to be sent into Western Ukraine via Poland & Slovakia
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I read that President Biden wants Israel to stop fighting because of the "holy" month of Ramadan. I am sure that White House Muslim staffers must have explained the complexities of Ramadan. One is that on October 6 1973 Egypt and Syria launched their surprise war on Ramadan
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Mega-scandalo nel mondo, silenzio in Italia: il Gov ha confermato Claudio Descalzi AD della ENI: e' imputato per corruzione in Nigeria con collega Shell + imputato per acquisti da una ditta associata alla moglie. Il collega Shell e' licenziato, querelato, processato. Lui: A.D
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Yes, exactly 2500 years ago Greek sailors and hoplites defeated the immense forces of the Persian empire at Salamis. That victory generated the overweening confidence that powered the Greek intellectual advances that gave us both democracy & science. Celebrations are due even now
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Erdogan must know that Turkey will never be able to extract any gas from Greek waters. But he gambles that others are more afraid of war than he is & thus provokes incidents for political gain. But he will die in jail if there is a clash because Turkey's navy is not combat-ready
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Armenia's inaccurate Soviet-era missiles can only be aimed at towns where civilians are killed. Azerbaidjian has drones and Spikes that can and do attack military targets. Azerbaidjian is regaining territory internationally recognized as its own, so its gains will stick.
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Can the Indian army fight ? 2 nights ago, when 50+/- of its soldiers on the Himalayan border were attacked by 250+/- Chinese, one of the killed was the battalion commander,up front, not safely back in a warm CP.The mother: am sad but proud that he gave up his life for the nation
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Let it be recorded that Trump was right on Afghanistan while the Intel chiefs, the fashionable generals Petraeus & Mattis & their media supporters (anti-war but more anti-T) were wrong. All efforts were futile from day 1. See why: .
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I know why Israel's war in Gaza is so shocking: the IDF is fighting to win a victory in the old-fashioned way, by counter-attacking the enemy that attacked on October 7 until it is incapacitated to the point that no surrender is even necessary. Recent wars not for victory failed
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The Ukraine crisis & the very fast, very easy exclusion of the Russian Federation from the global economy (discovery: it is still a G-7 not a G-20 world) has shocked Xi Jinping. One reaction: talk of extending Hong Kong's (shrunken) "autonomy" beyond 2047. No Taiwan adventures.
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By the 1970s the elite consensus was that "the hunt for atomic spies" had been a grotesque over-reaction to minor leaks that cost the lives of the Rosenbergs & ruined many innocents. Only when the USSR fell was it discovered that they & other spies had given away ALL the secrets
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It was the much-ridiculed Ronald Reagan (a "2nd rate actor") who rejected the US-European elite consensus that coexistence w the USSR was an imperative, and that E Europe had to stay under Soviet rule. Now it is Trump, so hated by the elite who rejects coexistence with the PRC
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Today's Washington Post attack against the next Italian Prime Minister accuses of opposing unlimited immigration, such as the one experienced by the US. The writer evidently does not know that Italy is a NATION state, not a contractual union like the US & values its identity
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An uncouth member of Congress slept on a sidewalk and the President extended the Federal ban on evictions, which amounts to an indefinite suspension of property rights. As a landlord, I would like to know if there is also an indefinite suspension of property and income taxes.
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2nd Lesson of the war. Nations are forged in war --if they prevail against the odds as the Americans did against the Brits, the Greeks against Xerxes at Salamis in 480, the Jews against Arab states in 1948 & the Ukraine is now doing, they are empowered to achieve great things
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The frenetic anti-Trumpism of Dem leaders is not motivated by hatred. It is motivated by fear & guilt. Fear because even with "his" splendid economy ruined by the virus, & 4 years of false "Russia" accusations, Trump came close to winning. Guilt because of said accusations
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The most sinister trend: US is falling behind in higher education as money and power shifts from academics to administrators,often-politicized "deans". Tom Riley's data re Pomona 1990-2016: students up 12%; faculty up 3%; administrators up 384%. Tuition up 253%. Trustees ??
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Obama's Law, that Iran can attack any country but no country may attack Iran, will be revoked because Israeli taxpayers, including the Beduin parents of the girl injured near Arad, will not tolerate a government that fails to strike back hard. That the Revolutionary Guards are…
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Ogni Italiano per bene era dalla parte di Merkel negli scontri con Berlusconi. Lei scienziata lui ignorante+volgare. Solo adesso si sa che Merkel ha sbagliato proprio tutto: economia, demografia, energia (bruciano lignite !) mentre Berlusconi e Tremonti erano molto meglio.
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Today's Washington Post has anti-Trump articles on every page in lieu of news, accompanied by an anti-Trump editorial. I am beginning to think that they are not fully objective about the coming election
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Why are so many US students willing to shout for Palestine yet do not protest the oppression of the Muslim Uyghurs (that has included forced abortions) and more recent persecution of the Chinese Hui Muslims? Ignorance of course but also Jewish students are a target in themselves
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"Se Biden vorrebbe potrebbe fermare la guerra subito" dicono questo e nessuno chiede: "Come ?" Vorrei proprio sentire come
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Sinwar & co planned the October 7 attack without planning for an Israeli response because they were convinced that the IDF would never dare to enter Gaza's complex of tunnels , high-rise sniper nests, pre-mined roadways... They also confused their killers for fighters.
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Mio padre arr in Italia Nov 1947 ha presto creato una nuova industria (termoplastica). Il piano Marshall rilanciava l'economia, e la DC al potere costruiva strade e case. Con la lira svalutabile l'Italia cresceva x 150% della media EU. Ma e' vero, con l'Euro puo' addebitarsi....
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Alan Friedman, noto esperto di questioni femminili (Vd. suo: Sorani Gynaeciorum cum additis graeci textus, Heidelberg 1979) definisce la moglie di un politico USA appena dimesso e madre di suo figlio una meretrix. Fortunati i programmi TV che illumina con il suo saggio buon gusto
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A list of military equipment left behind includes combat aircraft, infantry weapons and ammo, armored vehicles all in great numbers. It is a formidable inventory that is more likely to be trafficked than sold to responsible countries. Very destabilizing. Precision bombing urgent.
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It seems that Putin neglected political preparation at home: nobody believes his claim that he had to stop "the genocide of Russians in eastern Ukraine", or that NATO nuclear missiles were on their way to Ukraine. End-the war now petitions signed by 330,000 in less than 24 hours
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In China the Scholz visit to Beijing is depicted as: outer barbarian arrives to prostrate himself before the new emperor. Scholz has said that he will press Xi on Uyghur slave labor. I believe him ! Siemens & Volkswagen are coming w him & they are experts in using slave workers
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The pro-Hamas follies at US universities combine four phenomena: resentment of Jewish students by the untalented, Third Worldism on auto-pilot, Muslim solidarity based on the only thing all can share: anti-Zionism, and the now institutionalized cowardice of administrators
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Putin is bluffing over the Ukraine. To invade Europe's largest country with less than 200,000 troops would not end the crisis victoriously for Russia. Instead it would start a war that Russia cannot afford to fight
No European country will send troops, but they will send weapons
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Will the fall of the SVBank begin to restore professionalism in our financial institutions ? The "Head of Financial Risk Management at SVB-UK" describes herself as a queer person of color and first generation immigrant from a working class background" Who cares ? Skills ? None ?
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The Israeli operation has unfolded at a deliberate pace with successive small commando actions to destroy Hqs, kill leaders and wreck rocket production to avoid rushing young soldiers into booby-trapped tunnels. Any "pause" now would ensure a much longer war. Biden knows it too
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Russia's ruler can do many things with impunity. He can spend hugely to satisfy his whims, to enrich friends, to build extravagantly and more. The one thing he cannot do is to lose wars, as Putin has been doing since Feb 24 Now it is either mobilization or resignation.
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If all the governments that have now acted to punish Russia would have warned Putin of what they would if Ukraine were invaded, Putin would not have invaded --but each government wanted to stay in the Kremlin's good graces, leaving warnings to others. Needed a NATO that works
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Every war must end, and the Ukraine war can only end with the agreement of the elected President of the Russian Federation. To call the present holder of that post a "war criminal", to accuse him of genocide are emotional luxuries disallowed by the exingencies of the situaton
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Putin's agreement to talks with Zelensky's reps is an abject surrender: by now the Russians should have been in control in Kiev and across the Ukraine with Zelensky dead or exiled. Frantic to divert attention, Putin has placed Russia’s nuclear forces on high alert. Meaning: zero
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In Italy the population is prevalently centrist & pro-Western but ex-Prime Ministers function as Beijing & Moscow agents, few read the balanced newspapers, and depend on TV news programs run by covertly anti-American leftists. Scandal: no US ambassador; only a charge' d' affaires
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Una risposta "Noi ,abbiamo bisogno solo della nostra moneta sovrana ,non delle riforme" Funzionerebbe in 2 maniere: responsabilizzando il Gov togliendo alibi UE, e proteggendo la competivita' con svalutazioni se necc, come l'Italia fece per decenni, crescendo piu della media UE.
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In Chernigov /Chernihiv they just dismantled a Pushkin statue ! In London, a Russian opera singer was replaced by a Ucrainian singer--Russophobia aimed at an individual NOT connected to the regime. The Russians are Europe's largest nation & must be reintegrated not driven away
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Europeans replicate late-Roman attitudes: they refuse to use force to keep out the new barbarian invaders. Unwillingness to defend the frontiers is misrepresented as a moral stance . 4/5th Cent Christians turned other cheeks. 1400 years later, toilets w running water returned
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Ascoltando i pro-Russi imparo che sanno pochissimo della Russia o del grande popolo Russo la cui reputazione Putin infanga. No, loro non sono pro-Russi. Sono solo anti-Americani, pretesi "sessanta-ottini", duri PC post-mortem. Da bambino li vidi in piazza per il carnefice Stalin
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Have I missed the dismissal of the 2 Washington Post reporters +editors whose front-page account of Trump's Fourth of July speech at Mt Rushmore replaced his evocation of Lincoln and the liberation of the slaves with positive references to the Confederacy they invented ?
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The European Union failed to shield Greece from Turkey's attempt to claim its EEZ to drill for gas-it was the French who acted, with warships & aircraft. Now the EU is failing to shield Lithuania from Chinese coercion re its upholding of EU values. Unless this changes, finis EU
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Domanda: perche' la TV e' a Sinistra ? Voce saggia: "fanno sistema. Si aiutano con incarichi, inviti, piaceri e cortesie. Si sostengono l’un l’altro, ripetendosi di essere sempre e comunque i migliori. Anche se le sbagliano tutte. E sperano sempre nel Nume tutelare al Quirinale"
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speravo che in Italia qualcuno si sarebbe chiesto perche' uno dei paesi piu ricchi del mondo ha un Stato che da anni chiede elemosine dall' Unione Europea che include Stati molto meno ricchi. Estrema inefficienza imposta dalla magistratura organizzata ? Il costo della casta ?
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Con 47 ricercatori stiamo scrivendo "Il pensiero strategico di S.E. Luigi di Maio Ministro degli Affari Esteri e della Cooperazione Internazionale ", in 19 volumi. Speriamo in un sussidio ma meno del prezzo di Aisha -nome bellissimo della bimba anni 6 presa in moglie da Maometto
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The French, German and Italian governments, each in its own way a de facto coalition that contains strong pro-Russian elements, are supplying an absolute minimum of military aid & should therefore be given an absolute minimum of attention in NATO meetings,visibly, to evoke action
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I want my money back from the Army /USMC generals who fanatically insisted on spending billions to train the "Afghan" army even after it was patiently explained to them over & over again (incl by myself) that only ethnic regiments could be sufficiently cohesive to fight.
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You are right. Hamas should surrender instead of seeking to emulate the final defense of the Third Reich in Berlin that cost so many civilian lives.
We are deeply concerned by reports of an Israeli military operation in Rafah. It would have devastating impact, putting the lives of Palestinians and foreign nationals,including 🇨🇦s, seeking refuge in grave danger and making the vital delivery of humanitarian aid dangerous. 1/2
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Surprised by a US Senator's call for Putin's murder. In the decades of all-out warfare between Arab States and Israel, neither side ever attempted to kill national leaders or government ministers. Why ? To preserve the possibility of talks. Absolute war is only abstract theory
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1st Lessons of the war: need to empty out, fumigate and rebuild the CIA: it told Biden that the Afghan army would hold out for months and that the Russians would be in Kiev in 24 hours. No languages=no situational awareness. All Kabul laughed at the Army fraud but unreported
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Biden is criticized for abandoning Afghan women to Afghan men. Reports that captured villages must provide brides for the warriors (no more than 4 each under Muslim law) should be investigated in situ & non-Eurocentrically by a Congressional delegation, headed by Rep. Ilhan Omar.
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Am criticized for writing that the CIA needs re-staffing with people sufficiently interested in foreign countries to learn a language or two really well & prefer back-pack travel overseas to Jersey shore. Now: top Iran expert w no Farsi, top M.E expert w no Arabic, top China ex..
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If true, the news that 16,000 Syrians are joining the invasion of Ukraine is x3 extraordinary: as an admission of Russian military inadequacy; as a repudiation of Putin's claimed Russo-Ukrainian identity; as military idiocy: the Syrians only know how to fight disarmed civilians
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In India last month I observed the depths of Chinese strategic incapacity in antagonizing a country whose trajectory is bound to overtake the PRC's vast progress achieved during its now fading high-speed growth phase. Modi strove hard to educate Xi Jinping in 1 on 1s, to no avail
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Non l'hanno fatto apposta a Wuhan. Ma lavoravano con virus pericolosissimi nell'impossibilita' di vere precauzioni perche c'erano fino a 20 studenti/ricercatore, non 1 o 2 come in Francia che ha fornito la technologia. Quando i loro moniti furono ignorati, i Francesi sono usciti
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Some now say that Putin must be punished as Milosevic was. But P controls nuclear weapons, and the explosion of just one would break the spell of non-use, opening the gates of hell. Plebiscites in Donetsk and Luhansk preceded by total cease fires can end this war; no other exit
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Given the dynamics of the war, with Russian offensives encountering rising Ukrainian resistance, there is only one way of stopping the destruction of Russia's modest prosperity by escalating sanctions: the removal of Putin by Sergei Naryshkin & other officials who opposed the war
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Cannot believe how many adults endorse the Ukrainian request for a Western-enforced no-fly zone over Ukraine. It would require patrolling Western fighters to engage any Russian combat aircraft flying over the Ukraine. The loser will send more fighters..a straight escalation path
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L'Italia non puo' lasciare i Francesi soli nel proteggere la legalita' internazionale nel Mediterraneo. I Turchi accettano le norme che gli danno gran parte del Mar Nero ma poi le rifiutano in Mediterraneo. La MM e' la piu grande marina in quel mare e' puo assicurare la pace.
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The US Gov has now decided to control the use of US tech in the manufacture of the integrated circuits ("chips") that drive everything IT, smartphones, computers, missiles.. Xi Jinping was cruelly mislead by the boasting of Huawei & Co.
ALL the new chips they use require US tech.
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War=dynamic change. Suddenly, the hitherto obstructive German Gov is sending 1000 man-portable US Stinger anti-aircraft missiles & other weapons to the Ukraine & with Italy's switch, it too might vote to cut off Russia's access to SWIFT disconnecting its economy. Finis Putin
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Fragmentary battlefield reports suggests that many Russian soldiers find their tasks distasteful, reducing their propensity to attack with full force. Putin's political preparation was poor: Russian troops are not encountering Neo-Nazis but only people very much like themselves,
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A celebrity chef seeking more celebrity sends amateurs into a very active war zone to deliver trivial quantities of food as a publicity stunt while hundreds of truckloads are arriving unreported. Unaccountably, the IDF failed to stop fighting its war in homage to the great chef.
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Some American Blacks (eg Ibrahim X Kelly) assume Arab names to dissociate themselves from Western slavers, blissfully unaware of the fact that the Arab slave trade up the Red Sea started centuries before its Atlantic counterpart, lasted till 1985 (in Sudan) and thrives in Libya
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It is very nice that the New York Times has retracted its headlines re 500 killed by Israeli bombing of a hospital (50 were killed by a Hamas rocket). Will it pay for the restoration of the destroyed historic synagogue in Tunisia? Will it airdrop leaflets over inflamed Turkey ?
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Le folli direttive della Commissione Europea su come comprare e distribuire vaccini, e adesso, come organizzare il rilancio delle economie, ci insegnano che Il genio degli Europei era generato dalla concorrenza fra i popoli.Ora non piu': c'e la mediocrita' burocratica amalgamata
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Taiwan hosts US elite troops to train its own ra-ra boys. But what it needs is a 2M strong militia to greatly outnumber invaders wherever they appear. US is not in that business but Finns & Israelis know how to quick-train people of all ages to use today's weapons well. Overdue
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Kiev's conquest was perhaps feasible with an all-forces assault by x3 the troops & might have been war-ending. Now Kiev's conquest is impossible, Russia is damaged each day & Putin's best move is to accept anything he is offered. Soon only unilateral withdrawal will remain for P
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