Edward N Luttwak
@ELuttwak
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Much of my work is more "military" than strategic and thus requires tactical and operational analysis before one can consider the theater level & finally grand strategy. But the technical level also counts, for which I must rely on experts:
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Ukraine's forces have increased numerically (recruits +volunteers vastly outnumber casualties) Therefore their need for weapons is very urgent. With their forces much reduced since 1991,NATO countries have depots full weapons, but are v slow to send them. Public pressure needed.
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Every day Ukrainians die because they lack equipment & supplies that sit idle in the depots of the French, German, Italian, and Spanish armed forces. The US, UK, and ex-Warsaw Pact countries have done much more than their share because Europe's most populous countries will not.
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Was in South Africa under Apartheid. No black nurses. in Israel Arabs account for 30% of hospital doctors. No African judges. In Israel an ex President was sentenced to prison by an Arab judge. Arab entrepreneurs ? Many . Academics who cite Apartheid viz Israel reveal ignorance.
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My grandson is White, able-bodied and likes girls. That makes him an undesirable for the admission officials of the top US universities, mostly themselves "diverse". Now they have dropped SAT objective testing scores to deny him a chance to outscore. No foreign enemy is worse.
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C'e' un deficit di Democrazia in Italia. Il sistema creato per evitare un secondo Mussolini, ha prodotto 2 non-eletti per governare le 2 grandi crisi, Monti la finanziaria, Conte la sanitaria. Draghi aspetta il suo turno. Altrove preferiscono scegliere chi li governa.
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Ismail Haniyeh: “We need the blood of the children, women, and elderly. ” .CNN: a "moderating force" .NYT "relatively pragmatic".Wash Post "one of the moderate figures" .The Guardian: “pragmatic”.BBC: “moderate and pragmatic.Quousque tandem abutere, patientia nostra ?.
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Trump's conduct under fire --he was struggling to stand up to reassure the crowd while the Secret Service agents were trying to push him down out of the line of fire --shows that his television tough guy persona corresponds to his actual personality. Authenticity.
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When Gramsci discovered the secret of "progressive" political dominance via intellectual dominance he specified that it was not obtainable with better arguments but only by controlling "the means of (intellectual) production": publishing houses, editorial boards. Now Social media.
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friends of mine are starting a new university: admission by written exams only, no US-style bureaucrats ("Deans"), just professors, cleaners & students. No funding for student life, sports, community service etc, just teaching & learning. Staffed by refugees ex Ivy League.
@ELuttwak @CHSommers How do I short sell Harvard?.
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The greatest lesson of the Ukraine war came right at the start: if Americans and the EU so agree, they can cut off any country from the world economy. In spite of all the talk about the "diffusion of power", it is still a G-7 Euro-American world, not a G-20 world, incl China.
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As the author of the standard work on the subject (Coup d'Etat, Harvard U Press+ 29 other editions in 24 languages) I can certify that Trump's actions, however irritating, are not a Coup d'Etat. Of 187 Coups studied none included lawyers & all required serving soldiers. Hysteria.
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Was on an Italian TV program. Of 5 others interviewed, one declared that Italy should not sent weapons to UKR because they will only cause more deaths. Another faithfully repeated Putin's accusation (US plot) and a third talked of Azov batt Nazis. Only one clear Ukrainian voice.
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Putin should not survive his Ukraine adventure: all its premises have been invalidated: Zelensky did not flee, the Gov did not collapse, the armed forces did not dissolve, Russian forces did not seize every city, and Kiev's population is not obediently awaiting Russian rule.
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Israel's emerging victory in Gaza is two-sided: the physical destruction of the enemy, and a v low number of casualties. It turns out that Hamas is better at killing the unarmed than to fight highly trained soldiers & and that Israeli-made equipment really works. Morale ? V high.
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Trump's hostility to Zelensky reflects his priority: to detach Russia from China .That he never insulted Putin is helpful, but what really matters is mounting alarm in Siberia at Chinese intrusions eg logging viz just buying timber & now talk of a China port below Vladivostok .
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Nell'ultima elezione in Ucraina l'estrema destra vinse il 3% dei voti. Cioe' l'estrema destra, neo-Nazisti compresi, e' molto piu piccola in Ucraina che in qualsiasi altro paese Europeo. Ma nella TV Italiana si sono visti filmati di neo-Nazisti Ucraini ad nauseam. Perche ?.
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Nations must coexist. But Hamas and Hezbollah are not nations. They are Islamist conquest cults which totally reject coexistence. Israel's existence therefore requires their destruction. Only those who want Israel's destruction can oppose its war to destroy Hamas and Hezbollah.
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"Walz traveled approx. 30 times to China while as an NCO for the Minnesota National Guard". That is weird unless of course he is a secret Sinologist who publishes under a pseudonym , or a Yunnan butterfly collector. or the subject of a long-term recruitment effort.
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Non e' vero che l'Italia non ha avuto una politica energetica. Ne ha avuto molte: No Triv ( se c'e' gas naturale non si estrae). No nucleare, per carita', fanno paura. Nuove dighe ? Neanche per idea. Terminal per regasificare il gas liquido ? A no ! Non qui ! Ne li', Ne la'.
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If what Pakistan started becomes a war, it would be the fifth since 1947, all squarely won by India. Idem with Muslim wars against Israel since 1947. Tiny Israel invites attack but India is huge, so why ? Because of Islam's promise of victory. They cannot accept reality.
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Cannot fathom the military illiteracy that depicts the possible arrival of 16,000 Syrian troops in Ukraine as significant. They only ever fought Arab civilians with few or no weapons (& did v poorly viz Kurds). If they do arrive they will quickly run off to Germany as refugees.
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Will Poland close the road and rail connections between Germany and Russia ? If so, that would be the most powerful of all sanctions.
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Not too late to send large numbers of small arms and point & shoot anti-tank weapons to Ukraine via Poland or Slovakia. There are warehouses full of both (+ their ammo) across NATO because of the drastic reduction in force-levels. Ukrainians are resisting bravely and deserve help.
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My account of the war in Gaza: why so few IDF casualties why such high Hamas losses. Unbelievably, Hamas leaders thought that Israel would not dare to invade Gaza. This war is reviving the idea of Victory as a war aim.
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I find it extraordinary that otherwise serious people explain the deterioration of US-China relations by citing this or that US President or policy. China's relations with Australia, India, and Japan have followed exactly the same trajectory from optimism to confrontation.
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At this point the US must accept more strategic risk (eg supplying anti-ship missiles to drive off the Russian navy) and the EU must accept more energy-supply risk (by cutting gas imports to 50% of today's volume). Logic: calculated risks better than more war's unlimited risks.
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It seems that Xi Jinping's China has misjudged India -it is paying a high price for its border violence; previously it had misjudged Japan, which it thought would be intimidated into handing over the Senkaku islands; and of course it misjudged the US, no longer passive as it was.
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At a gathering in the Hague, the chief of Afghan Intel sitting to my right on the speakers' podium pleaded for more money and fraternal solidarity in the struggle against fanaticism. Fraternally, I grasped his left wrist offering to exchange my $20 Timex for his gold Rolex.
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The silly tale of Russian recruitment of 16,000 "experienced Syrian street fighters" for the Ukraine war is now officially dead, while the Chechens that Kadyrov really sent are actually dead. Alas no such happy remedy for Russian artillery & missile attacks against civilians.
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Today's Washington Post attack against Georgia Meloni (1 per day) is a vicious cartoon depicting Mussolini shouting "I am back !". Why the furious anger ? Her planned immigration policy is less restrictive than Denmark's. The reason: she does not actively favor gender confusion.
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Am frankly surprised that the Silicon valley magnates, with hordes of political consultants on retainer, so foolishly exposed their "exorbitant power without responsibility" by decreeing LIFETIME bans against Trump. Even his worst enemies will now want drastic anti-trust action.
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I am outraged that the CIA failed to investigate & punish those responsible for the leak of its investigation of the Khashoggi killing. So, the CIA fails to generate useful intelligence on Beijing or Moscow but it can spy on a US ally & leak the results to benefit both + Iran.
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Hakan Fidan now Erdogan's FM was his spy chief when he sent truckloads of weapons to ISIS then in its filmed killing phase. Now he is foreign minister. He has just said that "Turkey" will destroy the Kurds in NE Syria, who were the only US allies against ISIS. Cannot be allowed.
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Israel should not send an army to Beirut to destroy Hezbollah Hq & depots. It should send aircraft to destroy Iran's Kharg oil terminal to stop the funding of all 4 Shia militias. That violation of Obama's law (Iran attacks all but none may attack Iran) is better than IDF dead.
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The Taliban are capturing big stocks of US weapons abandoned by Afghan Gov soldiers who should have used them to fight. But they joined for the wages not to fight. The sons of the Kabul elite enriched by foreign aid are absent from their ranks. Not cowards, just too busy in Dubai.
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Prudent poker player Putin who four times rose from the table with imperial gains (Abkhazia, S Ossetia, Crimea & this month, Belarus), is suddenly gambling recklessly at the roulette table by invading Europe's largest country with an army much too small for the task. Finis Putin.
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Who is promoting self-discipline in contemporary American society ? Who is telling people to avoid narcotics, get up in the morning to look for work if unemployed, prepare children to go to school, receive them afterwords, to save money instead of frivolously spending it. Silence.
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Reports from the Ukraine are filled with wishful thinking and conscious disinformation but it seems certain that Russian forces have suffered losses and that the speed of their advance is unimpressive. Now is the time for aid to be sent into Western Ukraine via Poland & Slovakia.
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I read that President Biden wants Israel to stop fighting because of the "holy" month of Ramadan. I am sure that White House Muslim staffers must have explained the complexities of Ramadan. One is that on October 6 1973 Egypt and Syria launched their surprise war on Ramadan.
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Mega-scandalo nel mondo, silenzio in Italia: il Gov ha confermato Claudio Descalzi AD della ENI: e' imputato per corruzione in Nigeria con collega Shell + imputato per acquisti da una ditta associata alla moglie. Il collega Shell e' licenziato, querelato, processato. Lui: A.D.
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The crumbling of Assad's regime results from Israel's demolition of Iran's overall strength, incl Hezbollah, its Shia/Arab army, and v costly ,v crude ballistic missiles. Obama's law (Iran may attack all, none may attack Iran) is finally revoked, exposing years of idle boasting.
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Trump's conduct immediately after he was wounded cannot be interpreted by people who have never been wounded-one does not react to the wound (whose significance remains unknown) but to the shock of the sudden impact of metal against flesh, even an earlobe. Trump is no coward.
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Yes, exactly 2500 years ago Greek sailors and hoplites defeated the immense forces of the Persian empire at Salamis. That victory generated the overweening confidence that powered the Greek intellectual advances that gave us both democracy & science. Celebrations are due even now.
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Erdogan must know that Turkey will never be able to extract any gas from Greek waters. But he gambles that others are more afraid of war than he is & thus provokes incidents for political gain. But he will die in jail if there is a clash because Turkey's navy is not combat-ready.
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Armenia's inaccurate Soviet-era missiles can only be aimed at towns where civilians are killed. Azerbaidjian has drones and Spikes that can and do attack military targets. Azerbaidjian is regaining territory internationally recognized as its own, so its gains will stick.
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Can the Indian army fight ? 2 nights ago, when 50+/- of its soldiers on the Himalayan border were attacked by 250+/- Chinese, one of the killed was the battalion commander,up front, not safely back in a warm CP.The mother: am sad but proud that he gave up his life for the nation.
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Americans who deplore the right-turn in French politics have not visited France (outside central Paris, St Tropez etc) in years. Too many in too many French localities are after-dark prisoners in their flats. Why immigration without integration. Why ? Lack of effort. No. Islam.
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The White House boxing match had a logic. Having decided that Xi is bent on war, Trump wants to detach Russia from China: feasible because of intense alarm at Chinese encroachments in depopulated Siberia & Pacific coast, incl pressure for a Pacific port for C's land-locked NE.
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Till yesterday Trump was a TV tough guy -v few of whom are even moderately tough. Now we know that he is the real thing. Any and all may still oppose any or all of his policies, but none can deny his manly courage. Pushed down for his safety. He stood up to reassure the crowd.
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Let it be recorded that Trump was right on Afghanistan while the Intel chiefs, the fashionable generals Petraeus & Mattis & their media supporters (anti-war but more anti-T) were wrong. All efforts were futile from day 1. See why:
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Today's New York Times frontpage includes no mention at all of yesterday's sensational recovery of the Space X giant Starship's huge booster by two mechanical arms as it hovered. WHY ? because immigrant Elon Mask supports Trump.
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I know why Israel's war in Gaza is so shocking: the IDF is fighting to win a victory in the old-fashioned way, by counter-attacking the enemy that attacked on October 7 until it is incapacitated to the point that no surrender is even necessary. Recent wars not for victory failed.
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The New York Times editor tells us that voting for Harris is "the only patriotic choice". He published & frantically promoted the illiterate & radically anti-American "1619 project" (the US only became a republic to preserve slavery) but now he is a patriot. Beneath contempt.
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The Ukraine crisis & the very fast, very easy exclusion of the Russian Federation from the global economy (discovery: it is still a G-7 not a G-20 world) has shocked Xi Jinping. One reaction: talk of extending Hong Kong's (shrunken) "autonomy" beyond 2047. No Taiwan adventures.
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By the 1970s the elite consensus was that "the hunt for atomic spies" had been a grotesque over-reaction to minor leaks that cost the lives of the Rosenbergs & ruined many innocents. Only when the USSR fell was it discovered that they & other spies had given away ALL the secrets.
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It was the much-ridiculed Ronald Reagan (a "2nd rate actor") who rejected the US-European elite consensus that coexistence w the USSR was an imperative, and that E Europe had to stay under Soviet rule. Now it is Trump, so hated by the elite who rejects coexistence with the PRC.
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An uncouth member of Congress slept on a sidewalk and the President extended the Federal ban on evictions, which amounts to an indefinite suspension of property rights. As a landlord, I would like to know if there is also an indefinite suspension of property and income taxes.
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Today's Washington Post attack against the next Italian Prime Minister accuses of opposing unlimited immigration, such as the one experienced by the US. The writer evidently does not know that Italy is a NATION state, not a contractual union like the US & values its identity.
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2nd Lesson of the war. Nations are forged in war --if they prevail against the odds as the Americans did against the Brits, the Greeks against Xerxes at Salamis in 480, the Jews against Arab states in 1948 & the Ukraine is now doing, they are empowered to achieve great things.
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The frenetic anti-Trumpism of Dem leaders is not motivated by hatred. It is motivated by fear & guilt. Fear because even with "his" splendid economy ruined by the virus, & 4 years of false "Russia" accusations, Trump came close to winning. Guilt because of said accusations.
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The most sinister trend: US is falling behind in higher education as money and power shifts from academics to administrators,often-politicized "deans". Tom Riley's data re Pomona 1990-2016: students up 12%; faculty up 3%; administrators up 384%. Tuition up 253%. Trustees ??.
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Obama's Law, that Iran can attack any country but no country may attack Iran, will be revoked because Israeli taxpayers, including the Beduin parents of the girl injured near Arad, will not tolerate a government that fails to strike back hard. That the Revolutionary Guards are.
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Ogni Italiano per bene era dalla parte di Merkel negli scontri con Berlusconi. Lei scienziata lui ignorante+volgare. Solo adesso si sa che Merkel ha sbagliato proprio tutto: economia, demografia, energia (bruciano lignite !) mentre Berlusconi e Tremonti erano molto meglio.
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I read in the NYT that Xi Jinping is influenced by an "obscure Russian novel" . The name thereof is "What is to be done" (by Nikolai Chernyshevsky) . If employees of the NYT deem that ultra-famous novel "obscure" it must mean that these days DEI even embraces rank illiteracy.
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Today's Washington Post has anti-Trump articles on every page in lieu of news, accompanied by an anti-Trump editorial. I am beginning to think that they are not fully objective about the coming election.
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Why are so many US students willing to shout for Palestine yet do not protest the oppression of the Muslim Uyghurs (that has included forced abortions) and more recent persecution of the Chinese Hui Muslims? Ignorance of course but also Jewish students are a target in themselves.
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"Se Biden vorrebbe potrebbe fermare la guerra subito" dicono questo e nessuno chiede: "Come ?" Vorrei proprio sentire come.
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John Mearsheimer opines on the Middle East. He is not an orientalist and knows no Persian nor even Arabic. He has published nothing scholarly on the subject. So why does he opine on the Middle East ? Because he has opinions about Jews, which are retrievable. Look at them first.
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Sinwar & co planned the October 7 attack without planning for an Israeli response because they were convinced that the IDF would never dare to enter Gaza's complex of tunnels , high-rise sniper nests, pre-mined roadways. They also confused their killers for fighters.
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Mio padre arr in Italia Nov 1947 ha presto creato una nuova industria (termoplastica). Il piano Marshall rilanciava l'economia, e la DC al potere costruiva strade e case. Con la lira svalutabile l'Italia cresceva x 150% della media EU. Ma e' vero, con l'Euro puo' addebitarsi. .
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Re-industrialization + reduced immigration require many more "shop" classes in schools and lots of new industrial colleges in lieu of the present mass-production of "social science" graduates for whom ever-more municipal, county, state and federal desk jobs must be provided.
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Alan Friedman, noto esperto di questioni femminili (Vd. suo: Sorani Gynaeciorum cum additis graeci textus, Heidelberg 1979) definisce la moglie di un politico USA appena dimesso e madre di suo figlio una meretrix. Fortunati i programmi TV che illumina con il suo saggio buon gusto.
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A list of military equipment left behind includes combat aircraft, infantry weapons and ammo, armored vehicles all in great numbers. It is a formidable inventory that is more likely to be trafficked than sold to responsible countries. Very destabilizing. Precision bombing urgent.
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One thing the Trump Administration really can do on Day 1 is to order all Federal employees to report for duty wherever they are supposed to work. Many Washington Gov offices have been more than half empty --and the work is not NOT done at home. E.g US residency certification.
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It seems that Putin neglected political preparation at home: nobody believes his claim that he had to stop "the genocide of Russians in eastern Ukraine", or that NATO nuclear missiles were on their way to Ukraine. End-the war now petitions signed by 330,000 in less than 24 hours.
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In China the Scholz visit to Beijing is depicted as: outer barbarian arrives to prostrate himself before the new emperor. Scholz has said that he will press Xi on Uyghur slave labor. I believe him ! Siemens & Volkswagen are coming w him & they are experts in using slave workers.
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The pro-Hamas follies at US universities combine four phenomena: resentment of Jewish students by the untalented, Third Worldism on auto-pilot, Muslim solidarity based on the only thing all can share: anti-Zionism, and the now institutionalized cowardice of administrators.
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Putin is bluffing over the Ukraine. To invade Europe's largest country with less than 200,000 troops would not end the crisis victoriously for Russia. Instead it would start a war that Russia cannot afford to fight.No European country will send troops, but they will send weapons.
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Will the fall of the SVBank begin to restore professionalism in our financial institutions ? The "Head of Financial Risk Management at SVB-UK" describes herself as a queer person of color and first generation immigrant from a working class background" Who cares ? Skills ? None ?.
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The Israeli operation has unfolded at a deliberate pace with successive small commando actions to destroy Hqs, kill leaders and wreck rocket production to avoid rushing young soldiers into booby-trapped tunnels. Any "pause" now would ensure a much longer war. Biden knows it too.
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Russia's ruler can do many things with impunity. He can spend hugely to satisfy his whims, to enrich friends, to build extravagantly and more. The one thing he cannot do is to lose wars, as Putin has been doing since Feb 24 Now it is either mobilization or resignation.
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If all the governments that have now acted to punish Russia would have warned Putin of what they would if Ukraine were invaded, Putin would not have invaded --but each government wanted to stay in the Kremlin's good graces, leaving warnings to others. Needed a NATO that works.
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Every war must end, and the Ukraine war can only end with the agreement of the elected President of the Russian Federation. To call the present holder of that post a "war criminal", to accuse him of genocide are emotional luxuries disallowed by the exingencies of the situaton.
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Putin's agreement to talks with Zelensky's reps is an abject surrender: by now the Russians should have been in control in Kiev and across the Ukraine with Zelensky dead or exiled. Frantic to divert attention, Putin has placed Russia’s nuclear forces on high alert. Meaning: zero.
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Una risposta "Noi ,abbiamo bisogno solo della nostra moneta sovrana ,non delle riforme" Funzionerebbe in 2 maniere: responsabilizzando il Gov togliendo alibi UE, e proteggendo la competivita' con svalutazioni se necc, come l'Italia fece per decenni, crescendo piu della media UE.
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In Italy the population is prevalently centrist & pro-Western but ex-Prime Ministers function as Beijing & Moscow agents, few read the balanced newspapers, and depend on TV news programs run by covertly anti-American leftists. Scandal: no US ambassador; only a charge' d' affaires.
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In Chernigov /Chernihiv they just dismantled a Pushkin statue ! In London, a Russian opera singer was replaced by a Ucrainian singer--Russophobia aimed at an individual NOT connected to the regime. The Russians are Europe's largest nation & must be reintegrated not driven away.
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Iran's rigorously unshaven Rev Guards spent many billions to acquire ballistic missiles & have boasted for years about their formidable power. Today a billion dollars of ballistic missiles killed 1 person in Jericho, an Arab, from Gaza. Iran is impoverished by the IRG buffoons.
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Ascoltando i pro-Russi imparo che sanno pochissimo della Russia o del grande popolo Russo la cui reputazione Putin infanga. No, loro non sono pro-Russi. Sono solo anti-Americani, pretesi "sessanta-ottini", duri PC post-mortem. Da bambino li vidi in piazza per il carnefice Stalin.
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Europeans replicate late-Roman attitudes: they refuse to use force to keep out the new barbarian invaders. Unwillingness to defend the frontiers is misrepresented as a moral stance . 4/5th Cent Christians turned other cheeks. 1400 years later, toilets w running water returned.
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Have I missed the dismissal of the 2 Washington Post reporters +editors whose front-page account of Trump's Fourth of July speech at Mt Rushmore replaced his evocation of Lincoln and the liberation of the slaves with positive references to the Confederacy they invented ?.
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The European Union failed to shield Greece from Turkey's attempt to claim its EEZ to drill for gas-it was the French who acted, with warships & aircraft. Now the EU is failing to shield Lithuania from Chinese coercion re its upholding of EU values. Unless this changes, finis EU.
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Domanda: perche' la TV e' a Sinistra ? Voce saggia: "fanno sistema. Si aiutano con incarichi, inviti, piaceri e cortesie. Si sostengono l’un l’altro, ripetendosi di essere sempre e comunque i migliori. Anche se le sbagliano tutte. E sperano sempre nel Nume tutelare al Quirinale".
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speravo che in Italia qualcuno si sarebbe chiesto perche' uno dei paesi piu ricchi del mondo ha un Stato che da anni chiede elemosine dall' Unione Europea che include Stati molto meno ricchi. Estrema inefficienza imposta dalla magistratura organizzata ? Il costo della casta ?.
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Con 47 ricercatori stiamo scrivendo "Il pensiero strategico di S.E. Luigi di Maio Ministro degli Affari Esteri e della Cooperazione Internazionale ", in 19 volumi. Speriamo in un sussidio ma meno del prezzo di Aisha -nome bellissimo della bimba anni 6 presa in moglie da Maometto.
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The French, German and Italian governments, each in its own way a de facto coalition that contains strong pro-Russian elements, are supplying an absolute minimum of military aid & should therefore be given an absolute minimum of attention in NATO meetings,visibly, to evoke action.
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You are right. Hamas should surrender instead of seeking to emulate the final defense of the Third Reich in Berlin that cost so many civilian lives.
We are deeply concerned by reports of an Israeli military operation in Rafah. It would have devastating impact, putting the lives of Palestinians and foreign nationals,including 🇨🇦s, seeking refuge in grave danger and making the vital delivery of humanitarian aid dangerous. 1/2.
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I want my money back from the Army /USMC generals who fanatically insisted on spending billions to train the "Afghan" army even after it was patiently explained to them over & over again (incl by myself) that only ethnic regiments could be sufficiently cohesive to fight.
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