Ethan BdM
@ethanbdm
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Ethan Bueno de Mesquita. Studying conflict, accountability, and political economy @HarrisPolicy. "A tragic waste of intellectual potential." - R2
Chicago, IL
Joined June 2009
Friends, this is the promised thread about my and Anthony Fowler's just published:. Thinking Clearly with Data: A Guide to Quantitative Reasoning and Analysis. It has been a decade from conception to finished product. And we are very proud of it. 1/48.
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New @HarrisPolicy MS in Climate and Energy Policy, launching summer of 2026!.
Introducing a groundbreaking new degree: the Master of Science in Climate and Energy Policy (MSCEP), a one-year, full-time program designed to prepare the next generation of leaders tackling the global climate and energy challenge @UChiClimate
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I am not looking forward to the inevitable paper, "Modal Logic and Prompt Theory".
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Great thread. As Jacob points out, there is a serious theoretical and empirical literature on voter irrationality, partisan intoxication, implications for accountability and democratic performance, etc. The conclusions Caplan wants to draw do not follow from his evidence.
I disagree with this -- both because the empirical literature Caplan relies on is not particularly convincing and because most "voters' stupidity is to blame for Trump" takes don't contend seriously with alternative "rational" explanations. Note: Caplan might still be right; yet,.
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We did a Not Another Politics Podcast on the Trump administration’s approach to universities and how it builds on the Obama administration’s. With Jacob Gersen on his and @JeannieSGersen's great papers, "The Sex Bureaucracy" & "The Six Bureaucracy".
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I've been using ChatGPT (both o3 and 4.0 depending on task) to help copy edit a new paper. While improving writing, it routinely introduces mistakes into previously correct proofs. But it also finds errors and logical holes I missed. It contains multitudes.
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RT @p_ganong: I think @tylercowen and @ezraklein would be interested in studies about how (high) housing prices and (overly tight) regulati….
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Although failure of equilibrium existence in one "little" corner of the parameter space of the model I've spent the past two years working on turns out to be true, I am not yet sufficiently evolved to see it as beautiful.
A change in my thinking about mathematics over the last few years is that I’ve come to believe that it is not useful to think of mathematical objects as being “poorly behaved” or “pathological” — everything that is true is beautiful.
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I suspect most of these doctors had stats. But, for many, conditional probability as taught in stats doesn't sink in or doesn't get linked in their minds to this setting. We wrote Thinking Clearly with Data to try to rectify precisely such problems.
4 out of 5 doctors at Harvard cannot answer a question from introductory statistics
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"Please describe some properties of a market that, in your view, affect the incidence of a tariff?" would be a solid question to ask during advice and consent hearings.
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With respect to collecting data from episodes of reality TV shows to do causal inference on the effects of one group of people's behavior on anothers, it seems very important to note that those shows are edited to create a compelling story.
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RT @UChiEngagement: Have you completed at least three years of full-time, professional work in the U.S. public sector? You could be eligibl….
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This writing makes me proud to be a UChicago faculty member and alum.
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Just in time to benefit from deregulation, the Not Another Politics Podcast moves onto the blockchain in a new episode with @ahall_research. We welcome what we hope will be many new crypto listeners.
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New episode of the Not Another Politics Podcast for your listening pleasure!.
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My first episode as co-host of Not Another Politics Podcast discussing work by @danmoskowitz.
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The fires are revealing how good elected officials are at their jobs. Such information, even if unbiased, systematically affects electoral fortunes. This is why natural disasters being bad for incumbents on average isn't evidence of voter irrationality.
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Even though we are still 18 months from the super intelligence that can do everything, my sister's family let ChatGPT choose my Hanukkah gift and this is the result.
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