aaron
@probaaron
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stories told through prediction markets + data
denver
Joined February 2025
RT @probaaron: we need better ways of indicating probabilities in society and prediction markets fix this. like what the hell does chance m….
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RT @probaaron: another @Kalshi spot + options setup. outlay: 110k spot + 28.8k short 150k+ (40k at 72¢) = 138.8k. 99k: –11k + 11.2k = +0.2k….
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if you’re building, trading, or just vibing with prediction markets.drop a comment so we can connect, share plays, and grow this space. prediction markets need more signal, more community.let’s build that here.
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jobs totally flopped in august, only 22k added vs 75k est. markets still see 2 cuts as most likely this year, but odds of 3 cuts are catching up quickly (kalshi)
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we need better ways of indicating probabilities in society and prediction markets fix this. like what the hell does chance mean here. 1 in 3, 1 in 5?. checks PM, oh they mean 12% chance.
*TRADERS PRICE IN CHANCE OF HALF-POINT FED RATE CUT THIS MONTH. lol "chance".
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RT @probaaron: attention → speculation → liquidity → more attention. infinite loop unlocked.
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another @Kalshi spot + options setup. outlay: 110k spot + 28.8k short 150k+ (40k at 72¢) = 138.8k. 99k: –11k + 11.2k = +0.2k (+0.1%).150k: +40k – 28.8k = +11.2k (+8%).<150k: (final spot –110k) + 11.2k. risk: nuke <99k (you sell spot) then rip >150k = –39.8k (–29%)
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RT @probaaron: seeing a lot of hype about leverage in prediction markets. exciting stuff, but realize:.60¢ YES at 3x leverage liquidates at….
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$WLFI approaching $15B mark. can we chill on the hyper-inflationary tokens and move on to prediction markets?.
TGE day for $WLFI. pre-launch markets on hyperliquid saw FDV peak >$40B, now sitting just under $30B. volatility ahead as kalshi markets are pricing a 27% chance it comes in under $15B within just hours
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attention → speculation → liquidity → more attention. infinite loop unlocked.
Prediction Markets x Streaming is a 100x opportunity. Here's why:. 1) We are moving towards a world where most content is either AI-enhanced or fully AI-generated. Users of Social Networks will soon get bored of the AI-slop feed and crave more and more real human connection. 2)
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RT @probaaron: inefficiencies are still all over prediction markets. @BunchuBets called it and I scooped ~1k shares at $0.92 - i owe you lu….
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bigger feud? . prediction markets really in their 'not like us' era rn.
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seeing a lot of hype about leverage in prediction markets. exciting stuff, but realize:.60¢ YES at 3x leverage liquidates at 40¢. you could call the outcome right and still get liquidated mid-game.
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inefficiencies are still all over prediction markets. @BunchuBets called it and I scooped ~1k shares at $0.92 - i owe you lunch!.
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bullish for prediction markets in 🇺🇸.
Polymarket has been given the green light to go live in the USA by the @CFTC. Credit to the Commission and Staff for their impressive work. This process has been accomplished in record timing. Stay tuned.
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