Alexander Kriwoluzky
@econ_stardust
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Berlin-based economist (@DIW_Berlin, @FU_Berlin, @BSE_Berlin) and Theaterafficionado Monetary and fiscal policy belong together and should be green (he/him)
Berlin
Joined April 2012
30 Oct @17:00 CET International Macro History Online Seminar Series #IMHOS 🗣️@SEttmeier presents 'Fatal Austerity', co-authored w/ @econ_stardust, @MSchularick, Lucas ter Steege @ecb Chair: @AlbrechtRitschl ✍️ https://t.co/RhFNbdJ0mn
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🚀 PhD students pushing #HANK frontiers with BASEforHANK? Showcase your research at the Graduate Workshop on Heterogeneous Agent Macroeconomics, @uni_tue 🏰 25-26 Sept 2025! with @christianbaye13 @bornecon @econ_stardust ✍️ Submit by 15 June 2025. https://t.co/oSk8Rx0lr6
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Unsere neue Studie @econ_stardust @schumann_b zeigt, dass die #EZB im Jahr 2022 und durch ein früheres Handeln einen Teil der hohen #Inflation hätte verhindern können. 2024 nun agiert die EZB erneut zu zögerlich und muss jetzt die verlorene Zeit aufholen. https://t.co/R5QG9h2zPe
diw.de
DIW-Studie untersucht empirisch geldpolitische Strategie der EZB während der Energiepreiskrise – Berechnungen zeigen, dass expansive Geldpolitik zum Anstieg der Inflation beitrug, aber auch Wirtsch...
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Unsere neue Studie zeigt, dass die EZB im Jahr 2022 und durch ein früheres Handeln einen Teil der hohen Inflation hätte verhindern können. 2024 nun agiert die EZB erneut zu zögerlich und muss jetzt die verlorene Zeit aufholen. @econ_stardust @schumann_b
https://t.co/R5QG9h2zPe
diw.de
DIW-Studie untersucht empirisch geldpolitische Strategie der EZB während der Energiepreiskrise – Berechnungen zeigen, dass expansive Geldpolitik zum Anstieg der Inflation beitrug, aber auch Wirtsch...
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Wie immer am 3. Oktober auch daran erinnern, dass das SED-Regime rund 650 Menschen, die einfach nur von Deutschland nach Deutschland wollten, ermordet hat.
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@PiaHuettl und ich haben heute Morgen das Gutachten der Gemeinschaftsdiagnose in der Bol vorgestellt. Zusammen mit den anderen Wirtschaftsforschungsinstituten haben wir in drei langen Wochen ein aufschlussreiches Gutachten erstellt. Ein Blick hinein lohnt sich! @DIW_Berlin
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"Nach dem Wahlschock folgte der eigentliche Schrecken: die Reaktion der Ampel-Koalition", schreiben Alexander Kritikos & @econ_stardust im @Tagesspiegel. Um die demokratische Mitte im Osten zu stärken, sei ein systematischer Politikwechsel erforderlich.
diw.de
Der eigentliche Schrecken nach den Wahlen in Sachsen und Thüringen ist die Reaktion der Ampel-Koalition. Ein „Weiter so“ hilft nicht gegen die Populisten von rechts und links. Notwendig sind ein...
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Very pleased to see our paper on "Weather-related disasters and inflation in the euro area" published in the Journal of Banking & Finance. Thanks to John Beirne, @YannisDafermos, @econ_stardust, Nuobu Renzhi & Jana Wittich for great collaboration! 👉 https://t.co/mbUIkZN9pB
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And so ends a great day of term paper presentations in Macro II @BSE_Berlin class. Topics ranged from the effects of temperature shocks on inflation to estimating of network economies. Thanks to everyone for participating and @gehrke_b for co-organizing and teaching!
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It is finally happening: I am teaching a class on monetary theory in the Bachelors' program at @FU_Berlin. Quantity theory, FTPL, and MMT plus some history. Any suggestions for good reading materials?
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🚨 New working paper alert 🚨 We find that the ECB's ability to affect fast-moving energy prices strengthens and accelerates the monetary transmission, and alleviates the output-inflation trade-off. Check out the thread below by @econ_stardust
New Working Paper Alert (joint with @gokhanider @schumann_b @FrederikKurcz) Can the ECB influence global energy prices? What are the implications of this for the transmission and optimal conduct of monetary policy? Find out in a short thread below. https://t.co/OpQAExt4Bv
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Bravo 👏 to this super important analysis: „All in all, our results demonstrate that the ability of the ECB to influence energy prices is an important part of the monetary transmission channel“ /1
New Working Paper Alert (joint with @gokhanider @schumann_b @FrederikKurcz) Can the ECB influence global energy prices? What are the implications of this for the transmission and optimal conduct of monetary policy? Find out in a short thread below. https://t.co/OpQAExt4Bv
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Very interesting 🧵 on a new paper documenting how tightening monetary policy has impacted energy prices H/t: @Flx_Geiger
Second, using a Bayesian proxy SVAR model, we find that a contractionary ECB monetary policy shock significantly reduces prices of energy goods traded in the global market, corroborating the high-frequency event study findings, and the energy prices faced by consumers in the EA.
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All in all, our results demonstrate that the ability of the ECB to influence energy prices is an important part of the monetary transmission channel. Therefore, if handled with care, energy prices can be the ECB’s friend, not its foe.
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Fifth, we apply the model to the surge in inflation between 21 and 23. An early tightening would have prevented the drastic increase in inflation - at the cost of a brief, but strong, contraction.
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under its primary mandate, the ECB should respond to an oil price shock more aggressively than it did historically. Importantly, we document that the additional tightening required to optimally stabilize inflation depends on the ECB’s ability to affect global energy prices.
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Fourth, given the insight that the ECB can fight energy-driven inflation , we investigate the ECB's optimal policy response to a shock in the global oil price. Using the method to empirically conduct optimal policy counterfactuals (@ChristianKWolf @AlisdairMcKay), we find that...
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Following an approach similar to the “Phillips-Multiplier” of Barnichon and Mesters (2021) we furthermore document that the ability of the ECB to affect global energy prices also implies that the inflation-output trade-off faced by the ECB is substantially alleviated.
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Third, using a Lucas critique-robust empirical counterfactual (developed by @ChristianKWolf @AlisdairMcKay), we document that the transmission of ECB monetary policy to consumer prices and inflation expectations is less potent if ECB decisions do not impact the global oil price.
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Second, using a Bayesian proxy SVAR model, we find that a contractionary ECB monetary policy shock significantly reduces prices of energy goods traded in the global market, corroborating the high-frequency event study findings, and the energy prices faced by consumers in the EA.
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