CA ET Nerd
@earlyvotedata
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Election Twitter Nerd, I do election analysis/predictions on my own for fun. History Buff.
United States
Joined October 2018
2024 Total Predictions Summary: 11/8 Presidential: 17/17 Correct Calls. Got 312 Electoral Votes Swing State Miss Average: 1.05% Total State Miss Average: 1.13% Senate: 7/9 (waiting on AZ Senate for 10th) Calls Correct Swing State Miss Average: 1.08% Total State Miss Average:
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It’s better by a degree of billions. Character. Warmth. Comfort. It’s natural/life versus stale/fake. 2024 looks like lip filler and veneers.
i am honestly baffled. are there seriously people who think the 1990 version is better looking? it's awful, an unpleasant mix of busy and frumpy. the 2024 version is clean and pleasant. not even a question that it's a huge improvment.
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I actually think “The Argument” is right…no one cares about climate change as democrats and progressives have screeched about for decades now. None of it is true or ever has been. Their “green energy policies” have mostly been disastrous (rejecting nuclear energy) or not even
3 months in and these guys are already peddling soft climate denial, you have to admire the efficiency
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She totally gives off "I'm not a witch" vibes.
🚨 Aftyn Behn-- the Democrat nominee for the upcoming TN07 special election-- says that she despises Nashville, the city that she's running to represent in Congress: “I hate the city, I hate the bachelorettes, I hate the pedal taverns, I hate country music, I hate all of the
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Ah, how quickly we become the establishment.
Politico: NYC-mayor elect Zohran Mamdani is expected to attend the NYC-DSA endorsement meeting tonight and advocate against endorsing Chi Ossé’s primary challenge against Hakeem Jeffries.
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Having finished reading it now, the whole opinion is deeply personal against Judge brown 5th circuit judge Smith provides about a dozen private conversations with Brown demonstrating his misconduct. And showing Brown nakedly decided the result and worked backward
New: The 104-page dissent in the Texas redistricting case by Judge Jerry Smith has dropped. #txlege Doc: https://t.co/oA2ystYRQ3
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Judge Smith of the 5th Circuit has issued the most shocking dissent I've ever read in the Texas redistricting case. He accuses Judge Brown and the majority of judicial misconduct. He also chides them for applying incorrect legal standards, misapplying others, crediting bad
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Oh my! Another special election in Florida incoming? :)
Federal grand jury indicts Congresswoman Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-FL) She is accused of illegally funneling $5 million in FEMA overpayments to her company into her campaign account.
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Nvidia stock about to pop big time.
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New: The 104-page dissent in the Texas redistricting case by Judge Jerry Smith has dropped. #txlege Doc: https://t.co/oA2ystYRQ3
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Wow, this Reagan appointed judge went after Judge Brown in his dissent with the Texas redistricting case. Read this sample and read the entire dissent further if you wish. LOL!!!
I’ve never seen a dissent quite this like this one.
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I'll repeat: Dems gerrymander maps to their hearts content when they have control and judges say "Hey, it's within their power, no problem." GOP gerrymanders maps when they have control and judges say "THE HORROR! THE HORROR! STRUCK DOWN!"
Democrats currently enjoy VERY favorable maps. No federal judges care! New England states vote about 40% Republican and the region has literally 0 GOP US House members. Republicans send fair-minded judges to courts, bc we're good. Dems send partisan hacks, bc they're evil.
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It will be interesting to see how Hunt impacts the Texas primary. It does seem clear that Cornyn would do better than Paxton, but I truly believe either would win (it would just be about the margin). If Hunt ended up winning, I think he would win by a margin closer to Cornyn.
Ragnar Research poll | 11/12-11/17 LV Texas Senate 🟥John Cornyn 47% 🟦Colin Allred 40% Undecided 13% — 🟥John Cornyn 46% 🟦James Talarico 40% Undecided 14% — 🟦Colin Allred 44% 🟥Ken Paxton 43% Undecided 12% — 🟥Ken Paxton 44% 🟦James Talarico 44% Undecided 13%
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THEY ARE OFFICIALLY ON HER DESK NOW!! 😂😂😂
Just In: The US Justice Department will release the Jeffrey Epstein files within 30 days, Per Attorney General Pam Bondi https://t.co/pc609lDp5g
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ATL Fed: not only is GDP currently estimated to have grown 4.2% for Q3 but the gain is primarily driven by big increases in private spending and private investment, not gov't:
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I'm not GenZ, but I also understand the issues they face. Boomers should really consider their legacy (which is their children and grandchildren) when making policy. Otherwise Boomers might think you will be remembered as the Greatest Generation but history will have a much,
@matthewswspence I'm a generation or two removed but the notion that boomers owe GenZ anything is pretty funny.
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If you go by these ratings, and expect a good midterm year for Democrats, they'd still reach a 227 ceiling (give or take). That's how rigid the house is right now. It will only become more so as mid-decade redistricting flushes itself out over the next few years.
current Crystal Ball House ratings show 210 seats Safe/Likely/Leans Dem, 208 Safe/Likely/Leans R, and 17 Toss-ups. SplittingToss-ups would be good enough for Ds, altho If political environment next year is similar to a couple of weeks ago, you'd expect Ds to do better among those
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While it's a good headline, the issue is does this money actually get invested in the US AND does it actually happen? It's what Trump can do to show action in helping Americans and driving investment here. I'd make them do a down payment in an escrow account as part of these
BREAKING: President Trump says $270 billion worth of agreements are being signed with “dozens of companies” today.
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I'm sure John Roberts is thrilled to get this poisoned chalice delivered to his table. But it's all poisoned chalices. He can't kill the Texas map and let the California map stand. That'd be like drinking strychnine. So whichever is a mild does of arsenic, that's what he wants.
A case that could decide who gets the midterm boost lands at the Supreme Court’s feet
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Indiana has too much government. It would save taxpayers a ton if Indianapolis townships were eliminated and residents were allowed to join an excluded city. That would give them more control over things that matter, like police, zoning and road funding.
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