Lauri Myllyvirta
@laurimyllyvirta
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co-founder @CREACleanAir; senior fellow @AsiaPolicy: tracking and advancing the clean energy transition, with data and evidence.
Eurasia
Joined April 2009
EU environment ministers agree on a plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040 — a key step ahead of COP30. The deal follows months of division over how much to rely on carbon offsets. https://t.co/avCwtKXM8c
dw.com
European environment ministers have reached an agreement on a contentious plan to cut the bloc's greenhouse gas emissions but with caveats.
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My take is that the survey results reflect uncertainty and the wide open policy space before the next five year plan, rather than any certainty that things will go in a bad way.
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The pessimism might seem paradoxical given that China's 2030 climate targets leave very little space for further emissions increases before the peak, and that this year will likely see another major record in clean energy additions.
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This is the 4th year that we commissioned a survey of expert views on China's emission trajectory from our partner ISETS. While experts think the new targets China set for 2035 will be exceeded, they had a much more pessimistic view of the emission peak than in earlier years.
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China's new climate targets made it clear that policymakers are still leaving the door open to a rebound in emissions in the next few years, despite a recent falling trend and clean energy growth rates that will keep emissions falling if sustained.
🇨🇳 NEW | Experts think #China can exceed its new 2035 #NDCs, but are less certain about short-term #emissions cuts Full China Climate Transition Outlook 2025 survey: https://t.co/THoYjAj8Fp w/ @BelindaSchaepe; Xunpeng Shi @ISETS2020
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I've been puzzling over the reported growth in transport fuel production in recent months, which doesn't seem to be accounted for by domestic demand or net exports. The Sinopec data suggests that it's inventory buildup (or under-reported exports?).
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Demand for main petrochemicals, measured in ethylene equivalent, grew 8% - surging plastics and chemical production continues, with lots of new capacity coming online at the end of the five-year plan. Import substitution plays a part but cannot account for most of the growth.
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Quarterly results of China's and the world's largest oil refiner Sinopec: China's consumption of transport fuels (gasoline, diesel and kerosene) fell 4% year-on-year in Jan-Sep, due to the impact of "alternative energy" i.e. EVs, speeding up from 3.6% drop in H1.
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The B2B marketing economy finally has a number. We just launched the Wynter Index, a quarterly diffusion gauge tracking how B2B marketing leaders are spending, hiring, and performing. For Q4 2025, the Wynter Index sits at 55.2, signaling mild expansion in B2B marketing
wynter.com
Our quarterly survey of B2B marketing leaders shows increased investment in full-time employees, software and external agencies while revenue performance
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Far as I can tell, the five-year plan recommendations are the first time that the Central Committee has explicitly called for electrification of energy use. The previous five-year plans only had it in the energy sector plan, so elevating it to the top level is significant.
The construction of a “new power system” that can efficiently integrate renewables still needs to be “accelerated”. Other areas of acceleration are electricity storage, which should be “developed vigorously”, and electrification of final energy consumption.
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Oh many policymakers in China do care. Just not as the only or first thing on their minds. I don't understand why people have a need to come up with these one-dimensional caricatures of the entire Chinese policymaking apparatus.
@laurimyllyvirta They likely don't give two bits about what anyone else, especially foreigners think about their reputation or commitments. They likely will strive for the commitments if it fits their interests, which are eternal, as a smart Brit once put it, just like we all would do.
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New energy is the first sector under "strategic emerging industry clusters" - it remains a key part of industr&economic policy. My hope is that the expectation of a continued GDP boost from clean energy means the current investment slowdown can't be tolerated for too long.
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Honored and excited to share this moment. I’m proud to be featured in Entrepreneur Magazine as one of the Ten Visionary Founders to Watch. I was selected by none other than Kevin Harrington, the original Shark from Shark Tank. This recognition is a testament to my vision behind
entrepreneur.com
Kevin Harrington has backed many visionary and trailblazing entrepreneurs throughout his career. In this selection, he highlights ten standout founders who are redefining their industries.
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Here are some of the important goals that I picked from the Central Committee’s recommendations:
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Fossil fuels still get a nod, if a more limited one than in earlier plans: "Strengthen the clean and efficient use of fossil energy" - emphasis is on upgrading existing coal plants but this label includes highly polluting applications such as coal to chemicals.
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The construction of a “new power system” that can efficiently integrate renewables still needs to be “accelerated”. Other areas of acceleration are electricity storage, which should be “developed vigorously”, and electrification of final energy consumption.
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On clean energy development, after years of calling for “acceleration”, the Central Committee is now focusing attention on quality. The main goal is “initially establishing” a new energy system that is clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient.
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What's your DREAM TRUCK? Obviously — @cybertruck. From @DeptofWar to @SpaceX & @NASA (now led by @rookisaacman), our @Skypadusa crew is building FREEDOM OF MOBILITY with @Tesla pioneers. GLOVES OFF TOMORROW when shareholders APPROVE @elonmusk’s pay package
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Setting the 2035 emission reduction target “from peak levels” creates an incentive for provinces to increase emissions before the expected peak. Since the energy consumption control system was dismantled, “carbon dual control” would be urgently needed to curb this impulse.
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The big question will be if the CO2 emission targets in the 5-year plan are aligned with the 2030 carbon intensity target, and whether the system will be operational from 2026 or only later - the Central Committee recommendations don’t provide clarity on this.
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The recommendations do mention "establishing the dual control system for carbon intensity and total carbon emissions". The “dual control” will need targets for carbon intensity and absolute carbon emissions to operate.
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