Could going hard on environmental issues help the Liberal Democrats retain the Blue Wall at the next election? .Our new report, based on one of the most in-depth analyses of Lib Dem voter attitudes to the environment, suggests it could. A🧵of the key charts 👇🏼

RT @LukeTryl: A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems….

Chunky swing away from Reform here with the by-election held after their local Councillor resigned just a week after getting elected. Just one data point but does provide an indication that if they do get things wrong in local government they won't be immune themselves from the.

People may, rightly, question the ability of new independent style parties to secure major electoral success based on past editions. However, with the British electorate as fragmented as it is and disillusionment with the established parties as high it is, it is very plausible.

Is it Tom Skinner as Conservative candidate for Mayor of London now then?. Another good bit of social media content from Jenrick here. Though he perhaps shows his lack of cultural understanding at the end. Big John is simply "Bosh". @iamtomskinner is 'A Bosh.'. As the More in.

Given Britons’ adulation and trust in Martin Lewis it is a real coup for the government for him to be describing the WFA tweaks as an improvement - I would say this is worth more than any newspaper front page….

RT @chris_annous: Could going hard on environmental issues help the Liberal Democrats retain the Blue Wall at the next election? .Our new r….

You'd expect by-election turnouts to be roughly two thirds of the general election turnout, this is a decent turnout [75% of the GE turnout]. Not clear who benefits from this as on the one hand you'd expect Lab/SNP to have the better ground game but on the other hand we know.

There's much more analysis in the full report so please do read it and let me know your thoughts👇🏼.

The conjoint experiment found increasing awareness of Lib Dems environmental policies could be a significantly stronger driver of votes to the party than their more prominent anti-President Trump positioning. This is the case for existing Lib Dem voters and voters as a whole.

To robustly assess the potential electoral benefits of bold environmental positioning for the Liberal Democrats - we ran a policy conjoint experiment, comparing it with other potential dividing lines for the party with Labour.

Both of these policies garnered strong support in our focus group conversations. Our Liberal Democrat voters, particularly in North Cornwall, held deep anger towards water companies' perceived profiteering. They were also perplexed as to why so few homes had solar panels.

Two clear winners emerged:. 1)Protecting the Water Restoration Fund so water company fines are ringfenced for nature improvements. 2)Tightening the Future Homes Standard so solar panels and heat pumps are mandated on new build homes.

Landing media coverage is a real challenge for the Lib Dems. One way of getting it is through stunts. Another is having genuinely distinct and substantive policies to push. We tested some of the party's bolder and more distinctive environmental policies to see which land best.

Low awareness of the party's environmental policies looks to be driving this failure - knowledge of Lib Dem environmental positions is even worse than knowledge of their positions in other policy areas. This is driving perceptions the party doesn't prioritise the environment.

However, the Lib Dems are not currently seizing this opportunity. Their own voters put the party only slightly ahead of the Green Party on environmental issues and they trail far behind among the general public more broadly.

There is a real opening for the Lib Dems to position themselves as the strongest major party on environmental issues. Lib Dem voters, and Britons more generally, think both the previous and current government's environmental record is poor - particularly on sewage pollution.

Lib Dem voters also don't believe there is a trade-off between action to protect local nature and the environment at the global level. Instead, they see the two as reinforcing each other.

Liberal Democrat MPs also don't need to worry about being seen to be spending too much time campaigning on environmental issues over more bread and butter issues. Lib Dem voters say they would respond positively to seeing their local MP raise environmental issues in Parliament.

There is also no need for the party's MPs to engage in environmental NIMBYISM. Lib Dem voters say they would feel more negatively towards their local MP if they opposed a, hypothetical, solar farm project in their constituency on the grounds of protecting local green spaces.

Lib Dem voters are also significantly more willing to incur costs to support environmental action - providing Ed Davey with greater scope to be bold on environmental issues than other party leaders.