Chris Annous
@chris_annous
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Associate at More in Common | Stood for Parliament | Rugby Player
London, England
Joined March 2018
With Ed Davey about to speak this afternoon, our new report highlights three key tests for him to pass - both in his conference speech today and in the long-term: 1) A seriousness test 2) A purpose test 3)A change test đ§”
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Thread. Those seeking comfort in the fact that the Greens' polling surge hasn't been replicated in council by-elections should be cautious. Green voters have the lowest propensity to vote so if any party was to underperform in low turnout by-elections, you'd expect it'd be them
Bit more on the Greens, some question about why given their rising poll ratings they are still not winning local council by-elections. The answer maybe that they are of the big 5 by far the lowest propensity voters and thus less likely to turn out for a local council by-election
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If the Greens surge among Progressive Activists continues then it does open up a huge swathe of safe Labour seats as battlegrounds in places like Hackney, Manchester etc. Does feel like Labour could approach their own Tory 2024 moment - losing safe seats in all directions.
𧔠Looking at out 7 segments latest voting patterns shows how much politics is changing. Starting with Progressive Activists, for the first time Greens lead with this the most economic & socially left segment. In 2019 nearly 6 in 10 voted Labour, today fewer than half that would
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If the government is to avoid a similar repeat when it tries to bring a package of reforms back to Parliament next year it would do well, from a public opinion perspective at least, to heed some of the arguments in Lawsonâs pieceđđŒ https://t.co/xbFy0RJFK0
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Britons, of all political leanings, reacted negatively to the governmentâs proposed disability welfare reforms and in focus groups it was clear this was driven by a sense that these reforms were motivated by cutting costs not helping disabled people into employment.
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A very good piece. Iâd expect committing to exempt those with learning differences from employersâ NI contributions could meaningfully help persuade the public the govâs welfare reforms are genuinely about getting more disabled people into employment - not just cutting costs.
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At some point the civil servants/officials responsible for cock ups like this (like the Afghan data check) are going to need to be dismissed if public confidence in government and the system is going to be restored.
Manhunt under way after Epping hotel asylum seeker who sexually assaulted teenager accidentally released from prison
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To be getting 2% in *any* constituency (let alone one that is certainly not their weakest) should be set the alarm bells off in CCHQ- their core vote is now very small and they risk being frozen out/made irrelevant in a political debate being dominated by Reform.
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For the Tories to get just 2% while in opposition is genuinely staggering. The Westminster constituency of Caerphilly is based on similar boundaries and they still picked up 11.5% of the vote at the GE last year - their nadir.
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I think we can see a dynamic where progressive voters are much more likely to tactically vote for LD, Green and Plaid to stop Reform than they are to vote for labour to stop Reform. Runcorn showed this as despite that being a clear Lab-Ref fight - the Green share grew slightly.
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I think Labour strategists are misunderstanding that while they donât want the change Nigel Farage offers, progressive voters are still desperate for change but now view Labour as representing more of the same. Will they hold their nose and vote for more of the same (Labour)?
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If Labour canât establish themselves as the anti-Reform tactical vote in seats they currently hold comfortably then they have a real problem and canât rely on it to be their saving grace at the next GE.
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For Labour - itâs clear anti-Reform tactical voting was taking place here. However, they held an *18* point lead over Plaid at the last election. To be deemed to have lost so much support by local voters to not be in contention to be the anti-Reform tactical vote is damning.
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Great analysis from Luke. Just a few further points as to why this is such a bad result for the big two partiesđđŒ
Scale of Plaid win in Caerphilly is significant, not least because of what it says about the potential for progressive tactical voting in (relatively) high turnout elections to block Reform. Voters in this race knew it was a Plaid-Reform contest and voted accordingly.
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In this case - if Reform seek to position themselves in opposition to those appalled by the vandalising of a Chinese restaurant or those who argue we should be proud of our flag but shouldnât use it to intimidate minority communities they are fishing in a very small pond.
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Again Big John clearly demonstrating the risk for Reform of being sucked into âOnline Rightâ rabbit holes. Thereâs a huge appetite for patriotic politics focused on control of immigration etc. But v little appetite for conspiracies like Big John being an establishment plant.
This is spot on. I was actually going to vote reform at the next election as a protest against the big 2 but this shows just how dangerous they are. No thank you @reformparty_uk
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There may be some economic benefits from placing the cost burden of energy policies on bills rather than taxpayers - but from a political perspective I think the government would be wise to consider how it can rebalance this as itâs just not as sneaky a move as proponents think!
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Worth noting as well that Britons *already* see the governmentâs actions as being the biggest cause of our high energy bills
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This may have been the case pre-Ukraine but concern about bills is so acute now that any increase - even if small - creates real public worry. Finding out their bills would go up by ÂŁ17 next year to fund an expansion of the Warm Homes scheme enraged our focus group participants.
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It feels like the Treasury think they can be sneaky and put grid modernisation and household support costs onto peopleâs bills without anyone realising - making this less politically painful than raising taxes.
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An interesting exchange and think the end point about paying for policy costs through bill levies or general taxation is very interesting. Our research this Autumn found real public anger at the prospect of bills going up to fund government initiatives.đ§”
âI know my job is to get bills down by 2030â Energy secretary Ed Miliband defends the governmentâs approach on energy bills #BBCLauraK
https://t.co/CkTHGctZ4k
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