I know it's a long way out still, so it's way too early to call anything for sure, but nevertheless my gut feeling on this one is based on the idea that the atmosphere often tends to get stuck in repetitive patterns. Very few disturbances have even gotten into the central or

Interesting and challenging final mission for me this morning in #Melissa processing sondes for the @NOAA_HurrHunter flight. Obviously Cuba and Jamaica had weakened the core significantly, but it now has a much larger wind field. Honestly the never ending small bumps are tougher

@SimonStormRider Location of Crawford Guesthouse where Josh is staying.

#Melissa has about 12 hours to strengthen again before a 2nd landfall in Cuba, but it may not due to how Jamaica ruined it's structure. It takes time for that to come back and it may not fully do that, also it will be facing more shear as it's closer to the trough/cold front.

Message from NHC from there latest advisory: "It should be noted that while Melissa's landfall intensity is among the strongest ever recorded in the Atlantic basin, it will take extensive post-analysis to determine exactly where it ranks among landfalling Atlantic hurricanes."

Just landed after an absolutely insane flight with @NOAA_HurrHunter into #Melissa just before landfall in #Jamaica. I was processing the dropsonde data before it went out. When I saw the 113 m/s (219 knots) just above the surface I couldn't believe it. My display only goes to 100

Eye is getting smaller at landfall. This could be due to the increased friction with land. The barometric pressure might have actually just gone down even more. Why? Think about what would happen if you had a tub full of water in the back of your pickup truck while driving down

The Medical facility in Black River, Jamaica has sustained major damage from the first wave of the Eyewall. #Melissa https://t.co/rjrYXg4j7c

HURRICANE MELISSA has officially made landfall between Savana-La-Mar and Black River, Jamaica as a category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 185mph and a minimum pressure of 892mb!

If we can agree that the raw data for hurricane Dorian was sufficient to support an official max sustained winds of 185 mph, then if we use the raw data from Melissa and apply it using the same algorithms, there is no valid argument to assign the same 185 mph MSW here. Melissa is

Yeah I’m not gonna lie, Hurricane #Melissa feels like the closest thing I’ve seen to the Atlantic’s version of Hurricane Haiyan #Melissa (left), #Haiyan (2013) (right)

New highest instantaneous wind ever recorded by a sonde with a reading of 215kts (247mph), incredible 150m LL mean of 188kts (216mph). IMO this is probably a 190-195mph storm.

This means that some places in Jamaica will likely y see wind gusts well over 200 mph! We cannot compare this to Andrew, Dorian, Milton, or any other landfalling hurricane we have ever witnessed before. There is a legitimate chance that Melissa could end up being just as strong

#MELISSA is worse than “worse case scenario”. This is generational. The human suffering in parts of #Jamaica will be unimaginable to modern standards. I could not fathom a monster like this. I’ve studied so many hurricanes, and I can’t even believe what I’m looking at.

You know what’s crazy. If you flip Melissa upside down, it looks like a carbon copy of Haiyan ‘13. Wild

Take a good look at this loop. This is one of the most remarkable satellite presentations I've ever seen. #Jamaica is about to endure the strongest Tropical Cyclone landfall in Atlantic history by pressure, tied with the 1935 Labor Day hurricane, at 892mb. #Melissa

Honestly, this looks like something that one of the hurricane models would spit out if you gave it 150°F water.

#Melissa's eye is still warming and drying, surrounded by an extremely intense band of convection. It isn't done yet.

This is the most violent rotation I’ve ever observed on a TC within the Atlantic basin on satellite. #Melissa’s rotating so fast that it’s become impossible to clearly track CDO cloud features on infrared even w 10-minute frames. Milton’s close but this is a straight buzz saw.

Standard protocol of reducing flight level winds down by 10% to deduce surface winds is garbage for these high-end cat 5's. Are people who have their houses destroyed by 200 mph winds supposed to feel better knowing that a few thousand feet above their heads the winds are only

https://t.co/B6saofhwiA Latest pass explicitly supporting this is at least 180-185mph