Mike's Weather Page
@tropicalupdate
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MWP was born in 2004. Posting about Tropics, Weather, & more. The Daily Brew 9:19am EST weekdays. . mikesweatherpage @gmail .com
Oldsmar, FLA
Joined June 2010
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Last Seen Profiles
For those saying I am hyping and posting just for clicks: "National Hurricane Center director calls Ian forecast a "near worst-case scenario" for the Tampa area".
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Seawalls destroyed this AM in Daytona Beach. Buildings evacuated.
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Tampa Bay waters have been pushed out to sea.... crazy!
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Huge waves are still battering Daytona Beach this AM. Several structures have collapsed. Seawalls are giving up.
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Home! What a chase... and what a week of tracking. Thanks to all of you... the followers, the fans, the supporters. Even the haters. I couldn't do any of this without you.
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I feel so bad for Jose. Nobody saw him. Can we all at least give him a nod to show some love.
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Trucks loaded. Leaving Tuesday night at 5:00pm to storm chase. Expected to arrive at 5:01pm.
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Far African spot to watch now up to red 70%. Models aggressive on development. Nearing Caribbean next weekend.
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Chances now up to 90% for Invest 95. Next name is Lee.
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Florida... why are power bills skyrocketing to record levels? Home insurance doubling. Car insurance climbing. Gas close to 4 dollars again? Seems this isn't going to end well.
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A look at history. The cone is anywhere the eye can go. Hazards exist well outside the cone. Charley, Irma, Ian all forecast to hit the Tampa Bay area a couple days before landall. All turned inside the east side of the cone. Stay alert. Nothing ever is a given.
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Off the radar a few days... cheers! Little weekend with the girls.
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What I have seen over the years. NHC starts very conservative on intensity estimates. And they say this often (from today): "Users are reminded that there is significant uncertainty in 3-4 day intensity predictions and are urged to monitor changes to future forecasts." This is
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Such a sad day for us. Julie's mom passed away after a long battle with Parkinson's. Many know how much she meant to us and the girls throughout the years. Such a wonderful lady, grandmother, and mother-in-law to me the past 20+ years. Emily will be missed by so many. I was
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Florida. Buy gas, water, and beer this morning before the word gets out.
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Thank you so much to everyone that turned into my page during Ian. So sad it became such a devastating storm for so many. I hope I helped a little at least in the days leading ahead. Thanks also to FOX and CNN for both having me on to help share coverage and info.
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Reflecting. I did a lot of coverage leading up to this storm. I hope some found it useful. Yes the severe outbreak forecast was a huge bust but I believe everything else predicted played out. I read the comments. Some are brutal. If you think I over hyped that is ok. I am sure a
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Had definitely the biggest surprise of my life tonight. Thought I was just a speaker with the Upper Tampa Bay Chamber of Commerce and turned out I was awarded Citizen of the Year. Was completely shocked and yes shed some tears. Was so happy my family was there with me to receive
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I don't want to sound like an alarmist. But living in the Tampa Bay area my biggest concern has alway been a strong Hurricane passing off the coast without a direct landfall. Current surge maps on the NHC map here. Already showing some impacts similar to ETA with maybe more.
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I hope this storm forecast is wrong and everyone downplaying it is right. But I rather have everyone know the real risks that are being shown as Ian approaches.
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Serious flooding all along the Florida west coast. Crystal River residents never seen anything like it. Water rescues underway.
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WHAT? NHC 5pm: "There is uncertainty in any northward turn of Lee beginning early next week, but it is too soon to speculate about specific potential impacts a week or more out."
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Something about this forecast raised my attention...
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In case you were wondering... Florida snowfall totals today.
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Flooding in Laplace, LA (permission to use please credit Mike's Weather Page).
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NHC Monday 5pm update on Idalia. Rapid Intensification into a 120mph Major Hurricane expected. Track bumped west. Hurricane Warnings extended westward some.
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Latest Tuesday spaghetti models on . Track cluster tight. East side of eye looking to have impacts deep into Florida. And yes some sniffing a loopy loop later. Steering currents weak in a week.
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Check out Lee tonight as the sun goes down. Enormous. One of the largest for the Atlantic as far as size. Live at 6pm ET.
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Next NHC track update at 11pm. I will go live and we can discuss. Also live in the AM 9:19am. Then I am in the Storm Chaser... my mobile office... until landfall and beyond. Taking a little break now. My brain hurts.
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This is the same Surge levels estimated for areas in NE Florida from Hurricane Idalia:
This is what 10 to 15 feet of storm surge looks like 👀
This was Hurricane Ian last year in Fort Myers, Florida.
#Idalia
could bring similar inundation levels to the Big Bend coast of Florida tomorrow.
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Sunday afternoon 12z EURO ensembles keeping an eventual curve north for Invest 95 and likely future Hurricane Lee. Too far away to be 100% yet. But that's been the consistent thinking of the EURO.
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Ian rainbands in Ft.Myers tonight. Coming down hard!
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Holy cow. What is up with this weather along the upper Gulf and Florida these past few weeks. Any locals agree this is kinda weird. Current satellite tonight showing strong storms ongoing once again. Lots of lightning in lower LA. Lots of rain/storms.
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12z GFS big shift east and not weakening north in the Gulf like expected. 12z ICON into Tampa Bay.
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Well my beloved Storm Chaser
@chevrolet
@ChevyTrucks
might be toast. Got me through 150+ MPH winds and some serious storm surge yesterday from Ian. And kept me safe through 5 more named storms before. But she died a mile from I-75 to get home. Towing back now. Doesn't sound good.
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Saturday afternoon NHC Tropical Update. Watching five areas in the Atlantic now.
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Heading into Hurricane Idalia. Catch live videos and updates throughout today and tomorrow as we chase towards north Florida.
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Focus shifting now to new wave coming off Africa. NHC marking already at 50%. Models have been aggressive on development. Lots of time to watch. Lots of options where it goes. Nothing certain at all. EURO 10-day has bounced around a bunch... with the latest 00z little more west
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I am officially announcing I will no longer post time zones after being corrected 1204 times that it isn't EST it is EDT. New track update coming at 5pm. Likely watches coming for Florida.
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Tampa Bay waters have been pushed out to sea.... crazy!
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Latest Thursday 00z EURO wave height map. Huge waves expected from Hurricane Lee. Even without a direct landfall eastern US will feel along the coast... starting with Florida early week. This map here for early Friday (next week). Later into the run showing 100+ feet.
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Hanging with the big dog himself
@JimCantore
once again! I love this guy!!
@weatherchannel
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Invest 92 now Tropical Depression
#3
. Expected to be Hurricane Bret nearing the eastern Caribbean in a few days. Website/APP updated.
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Sunday AM Tropical Update. New Atlantic wave marked by the NHC at 20%. Been watching. So far a trek west into Central America showing on most. Keeping an eye on it for sure.
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Monday AM NHC update on Idalia. Major Hurricane expected. 115mph now just west of Tampa Bay and strengthening towards landfall. Track similar. Serious storm with major impacts well past landfall.
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Some of my footage inside Ian's intense eyewall around Rotonda, FL...
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Haven't seen this in a long long time it seems. Shhhhhhhh.
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Interesting text from the NHC discussion this AM: "Overnight, there were multiple reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft of mesovorticies orbiting the closed, elliptical eyewall. Due to safety considerations, the aircraft were unable, at times, to
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That was fast. Up to 40% overnight. Watching system pulling up across Central America middle next week. Getting gas this AM.
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We now have Tropical Storm Lee. Expected to be a CAT 4 by Sunday. Watching close.
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Breaking News! New 3 letter names just announced that will be added to next year's Hurricane List. WTH / WTF / IDK / LOL / SMH will be added after Wanda.
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Fresh 00z spaghetti models on . Tracks confident.
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Storm rolling into Dunedin, FL - Honeymoon Island - this afternoon.
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Not sure anyone knows what to expect from the unprecedented approach of Tropical Storm/Hurricane Hilary to the southwest. Current rainfall totals here shows so much widespread rain and flooding to come. Not only the lower half of California but Nevada too... including Las Vegas.
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Floridians leaving their house this morning:
Please enjoy these ducks changing their minds.
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Thanks for trusting this non-blue checkmarked weather dude all these years. I still want one though... bad!
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Say what??? That same front that lifted Idalia and turned her out towards the Atlantic is going to push through this weekend. Saturday night temps here still showing 'COOL'. I am getting wood!
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Today is the last day of Hurricane Season! This year was officially the 4th most active with 20 named storms... the most ever for an El Nino year.
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Florida... ARE YOU READY? Saturday AM temps here. Could have some 50's reach middle state. 40's up north! I am getting wood. New firepit on the way. (sorry SFL)
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NHC at 80% this AM on Invest 95. Conditions favor a strong Hurricane ahead. Watching future track. How far north and any potential curve. Timing near the Caribbean next weekend first to watch.
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Big time surge coming in Maderia Beach now. Every road with water. Over the seawalls.
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What the heck! Wild radar down in the Keys looks like an eye.
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