Thu Tran
@athutran
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In summary, if we stick to something like 50% vaccine coverage and 15% treatment coverage w #antivirals (this is where we were in late 2022) then we should expect >81,000 deaths per year from COVID in the US. Analyses now published in @BMCMedicine. 4/ https://t.co/GL8hQo8Onn
link.springer.com
BMC Medicine - As we continue the fourth year of the COVID-19 epidemic, SARS-CoV-2 infections still cause high morbidity and mortality in the United States. During 2020–2022, COVID-19 was one...
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@BMCMedicine @jlservadio @maciekboni @athutran @EmilyHowerton6 Vaccine is still the most effective way reducing burden. Over 52-80% vaccine coverage is needed to reduce the mortality comparable to the burden of influenza. Treatment offers effective alternative in reducing severity in low-vaccine-coverage circumstances. 3/3
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Everything published just last week. Big congratulations and immense thanks to @merlinvn @gaobo @rjaaguas @athutran @jennifergardy @gatesfoundation @NIH Arjen Dondorp, Chanaki Amaratunga, Nick White, Mehul Dhorda, and many others. 14/ https://t.co/sRaNbjUQIm
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Hi #epitwitter, how does drug-resistance evolve to combination therapies? For #malaria this is a critical question, as #artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) are now used worldwide, and drug-res evolves to both the artemisinins and the non-artemisinin partner drugs 1/
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BioBlitz is important y’all 🐸
Please join us in congratulating this @penn_state team — graduate students @Fuhan_Yang, @athutran, @ChiaraVanalli, and @EmilyHowerton6, and alumnus @WeimingHu8 — on placing first in the Global Frog Discovery Challenge! https://t.co/NDwyMuKTr8
@GradSchoolPSU @PennStateAlums
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Today, @JohnsHopkinsSPH launched a free course on infectious disease transmission for public health practitioners. This course, taught by @EmilyGurley3 and @apwez, focuses on transmission models and decision-making.
publichealth.jhu.edu
The course is intended for professionals and practitioners who make decisions about public health policies, and aims to make them informed consumers of infectious disease models.
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Had a blast building species distribution model for frogs in Australia, Costa Rica, and South Africa with @Fuhan_Yang @WeimingHu8 @EmilyHowerton6 @ChiaraVanalli Great work, Sweet Frog!
I am incredibly honored to be one of the winners of EY #BetterWorkingWorld Data Challenge! Our team (@athutran @EmilyHowerton6 @Fuhan_Yang and I) is very excited to support biodiversity conservation and ecosystem health with data-driven approaches🐸
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The @PoultryHub is hiring! Looking for a postdoc or a research assistant in epidemiology to assess the role of chicken prod intensification 🐔 in South/Southeast Asia on emerging zoonotic disease risks. @VEEPH_RVC Find out more:
jobs.rvc.ac.uk
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Hi #epitwitter & thx @BillHanage. Our work on estimating attack rates is now published in @JAMANetworkOpen. Main msg: in early 2021 we shouldn't have been aiming vaccination coverage at an uncertain #herdimmunity threshold. Vaccinating everyone & faster is the better approach. 1/
Great work led by Thu Tran and @maciekboni estimating the population immunity in Southern New England about a year ago. They find it was lower than widely thought, because an estimated 27% of vaccinations were given to people with convalescent immunity https://t.co/HWgnYxAwhr
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Hi #epitwitter, sorry to pile on with bad news, but we're not as immune as we think, and it's not just #Omicron's immune escape. In southern New England, it turns out that ~27% of vaccines were given to previously infected individuals. Pre-print below. 1/
medrxiv.org
Estimating an infectious disease attack rate requires inference on the number of reported symptomatic cases of a disease, the number of unreported symptomatic cases, and the number of asymptomatic...
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Thx @athutran @nathanwikle for putting this together so quickly & @Fuhan_Yang @fcraw4d for helping put all the @CTDPH data together. Thx @RIHEALTH @MassDPH @ciddpsu @BillHanage & @SACEMAdirector @Tuliodna @DarrenM98230782 for making all the Omicron results available so early. 8/
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Hi #epitwitter, attack rates for Connecticut here, our first attempt at these calculations for CT. Thanks to @fcraw4d @Fuhan_Yang @athutran @nathanwikle. We estimate that 21.6% (95% CredInt: 20.6% - 23.1%) of CT residents have been infected by #SARSCoV2 through Feb 28 2021. 1/
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Hello #epitwitter, some #noncovid results here on #malaria mass drug administration (MDA) and the potential risk for drug-resistance. Pre-print recently posted. 1/
biorxiv.org
Mass drug administration (MDA) with antimalarials has been shown to reduce prevalence and interrupt transmission in small populations, in populations with reliable access to antimalarial drugs, and...
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#epitwitter, on the anniversary of @CBSEveningNews @mlipsitch letting >5M Americans know that a million people could die a couple comments on what we need to fix before next winter - comments here: https://t.co/G3rSjPt9kV original CBS here https://t.co/gkccsSqllf 1/
cbsnews.com
Harvard University epidemiologist cautions that 1% of those who get symptoms from coronavirus are projected to die, which he says will be in the millions.
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Excellent thread by @angie_rasmussen on the relationship between epidemic characteristics and immune-escape. Large epidemic => virus has lots of chances to find that one lucky immune-escape mutation, like the E484K that has appeared multiple times. However, sometimes ... 1/
But acquiring mutations to be selected is a numbers game, because it happens randomly. It’s like buying lottery tickets. Buy one? Chances of winning are very low. Buy millions? Your chances go up depending on how many millions or billions more.
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We've been collecting contact data (including age-structured contact rates) since March 2020 and will continue to do so...if you're a modeler and need contact data for the US, let us know!
First paper on US interpersonal contact during Covid-19 is out! https://t.co/4ADZHTtxDS Joint w/ with @ayesha_s_m. We're continuing to collect these data, look for more soon...
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Hi #epitwittter SARS-CoV-2 attack rate in Massachusetts through Dec 31 is estimated at 20.6% (95% CredInt: 19.0% - 22.8%). These estimates are getting more and more difficult because of the changing nature of the epidemic, e.g. changing patterns in contact rate, ICU admissions 1/
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code (model, inference, bash scripts to reproduce trajectories) and figures are available at https://t.co/z3UaQPmyq8 2/2
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Building on our previous model ( https://t.co/qBCB3OxXsP), we further explored different vaccination strategies for RI and MA. Good strategies are those which cover both high-mortality and high-contact groups, however, priority should be given to the former. (see img alt txt) 1/2
Hi #epitwitter short summary here on @athutran's results on optimal vaccine allocation using real-time seroprevalence estimates, for MA and RI (abt 25% to 30% seroprev on Jan 1). Results exactly as expected: vaccinate high-mortality groups first 1/
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