TwoGun
@TwoGunFF
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5x million dollar winner at NFL DFS. 3rd place (out of over 5000) in Circa Millions 2023. Write Daily NFL and sports betting contest strategy for @FTNFantasy
Joined November 2013
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Always a bridesmaid, never the bride this season. Still a great week tho!
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Apparently
@ESPNBet
treats a push as a loss for a parlay. This is so outrageously bad for the bettor that I literally will not be your friend if you bet there. What’s next? -150 sides and totals 😂
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Final standings. Tied for 3rd for $375k. Went 58-29-3 with my picks. Posted weekly on FTN through week 17 with my favorite picks.
#CircaSportsMillion
V 🏈🏆
Final Standings & Prizes
📄 Full Season:
📄 4th Quarter:
📄 Last Place:
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Won 2 more seats to DK FFWC in this bout of offensive giants. 5 total, all via showdown.
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Some places (I will not name names) have Puka Nacua projected ahead of DeAndre Hopkins, Devonta Smith, Amari Cooper, and Mike Evans this week. This is why fantasy football is beatable my friends.
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Quick thread about FTN Ownership and how it benefited me in my recent milly win
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On Two Gun Way, house is coming along. If I win the FFWC, what fuck you thing should I put in this bad boy?
#livelaughlove
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Jim Irsay: Inherits billions of dollars and does jack shit.
Jonathan Taylor: Works his ass off to become top running back in world but is about to get paid less than a mid-range tight end.
Yeah I don't think anyone is going to be on Irsay's side in this squabble.
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Won my third
@DraftKings
FFWC seat last night. All three have been via showdown. To say this has been a weird season so far for me is an understatement.
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Draftkings playoff best balls have to be the most theoretical beatable contest they’ve ever run. Deep roster, larger lineup, tight end spot, opponents not used to drafting best ball teams. Most people don’t even draft a lineup that could field a full Super Bowl team.
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Well I got killed at DFS this week because my picks were generally…bad. But I managed to win a seat to the
@UnderdogFantasy
introductory Dawg Bowl in Miami!
@JerLevine
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Ngl kinda sad all my screenshots have been on showdowns but hopefully that’ll change soon.
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With legal sports betting, we can see innovation with sports betting tournaments and lots of good fun skill-based stuff.
Or we can see books just completely fuck over the squares and severely limit anyone with half a brain.
Hopefully it is the former and the good books prevail
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Three years ago I didn’t know which QBs were starting for which teams until a week before Week 1.
Now I’m looking at mock drafts so I can stack rookies with likely QB pairings in the pre-draft best ball on
@UnderdogFantasy
.
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No major victory laps for best ball for me but I did win the Mastiff. Don’t have a dog currently. Mastiffs seem like good dogs. Maybe I’ll get a few for Two Gun Way. If I named my son after Eric Decker’s 200 yard game, I can get a dog based off of a best ball win.
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Live look at sports books counting all their square Boston Scott TD losing bets.
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So apparently I can win on Mondays, Thursdays and now Saturdays this season. Sundays….generally not so much.
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Will Fuller chalk week.
give me a horror story from your specialty in five words or less
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About as blatant of fraud as it can get. Always been my concern with Best Ball tournaments. Underdog said they would post all boards of teams that win. Think that's the most basic thing we need or f best ball going forward if some players end up with 10 top two round picks.
@DK_Assist
somehow found myself in a draft room full of the most blatant collusion i've ever seen. I've sent support an email but only received automated responses so far. tagging some for visibility
@JustinHerzig
@peteroverzet
@adamlevitan
@PatKerrane
@mattkalish
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This is what a bowling alley looks like in a house when it's just been framed
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Instead of relying on sites to cancel bogus drafts, another idea is for sites to implement anti-tanking controls in the software. For example, round 1 you can't draft a player more than 12 spots ahead of ADP. This gets relaxed more as the draft progresses.
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Happy Anniversary to my beautiful wife. 8 years married, 14 years together, and 3 kids.
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@SuperBookSports
Y’all embarrassed yourselves. This makes it worse. Your detachment from reality of how the world thinks is something…
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When drafting in the best ball playoffs on
@UnderdogFantasy
, I feel 4/5 of people tend to draft a team capable of winning in the final round. There’s always that one player that drafts unoptimally but you know he’ll probably win the pod and then just lose later.
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Investing in FTN has really helped my own personal DFS play. Case in point our ownership rankings. I use our SE ones for the high stakes games I play since they are more similar.
DFS Ownership accuracy from Week 1📣
r^2 when predicting ownership in the Giant $50 SE
@FTNDailySE
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FTN Daily’s opto will be free Monday-Thursday. Come try us out for the Thanksgiving slate!
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@KassyDillon
She 100% mispronounced some of the words and was reading off of a transliteration 😭
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@TheStalwart
Chess nerds have been and always will be the only group of people that I am consistently cooler than.
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The reason people are posting their best ball finals teams isn’t to flex to other people in the fantasy football community. It’s to give us all cover from our wives to spend all spring and summer on our phones drafting teams.
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If fantasy football and sports betting did not exist, tonight’s game’s ratings would get absolutely smoked by the Golden Bachelor.
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50k draft happens in two hours. Going to do my best to live tweet it but it's a 30 second timer so it'll be tough.
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Currently tied for 13th out of over 5000 entries in the
@CircaSports
Millions contest. See the sides I like the most each week fore free on Fridays on
@FTNBets
!
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And this is why you won’t win the milly maker son.
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.
@Draftkings
main MMA contests all filled 3+ hours before 🔒 . Think that’s what economists call “pent up demand.” LTSI
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Here are my updated, unofficial standings of the
@CircaSports
#CircaMillions
sports betting contest with one game left for people that were in the top 10 prior to this week. I'm pretty much locked into third for $400k (LCPA-1 may tie me, which would drop me to $375k)
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Have Chubb and even Jamaal Williams in that $50k best ball lineup I did over the summer but luckboxed with that Thielen TD tonight in DFS.
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Let’s not forget the annual tradition of a DFS site crashing during the first week.
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Draft over. Gonna guarantee myself some +EV by eating all of these shrimp cocktails.
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I’m currently in 13th out of over 5000 entries in the Circa Millions. See some of my favorite sides of theirs this week for free.
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Eliminator on
@UnderdogFantasy
filled in...under 24 hours? Goes to show the demand for a good, new offering.
Let's take a moment and see all the things UD is doing that FanDuel could have done when they bought Draft. Management is sometimes everything especially with innovation.
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I'm 100% fine with the Twitter hype of Puka Nacua spilling over into DFS this week.
Puka Nacua is trending towards the top-24 PPR WR mark in my rankings after digging into the matchup a bit more.
Just moved him ahead of Garrett Wilson.
This is the range he currently falls in for me:
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Hard to not get pissed as a running back if Cole Kmet is making more than Saquan Barkley and Josh Jacobs. Pretty sure Barkley and Jacobs are worth more points per game EV wise to their teams than Kmet (even if it’s still far less than say Mahomes to KC or even Herbert to KC etc)
Another deal: Bears and TE Cole Kmet reached agreement on a four-year, $50 million extension, including $32.8 million guaranteed and $20 million in new first-year cash, per me and
@FieldYates
.
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You have to root for the Broncos at this point, if for no other reason than dumb coaching decisions need to have consequences.
Running Latavius Murray to the ground and benching James Cook while you’re behind is a fireable offense.
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Call me crazy for thinking MVS 50 spots later is a better deal than Sky Moore still.
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I think the court of public (Twitter) opinion will ultimately keep best ball honest on UD/DK. Everyone gonna want to see the winners draft board. If anyone gets beat by a super team in playoffs a stink will be raised. A lot of $$$ invested into this year by both players and UD/DK
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My wife has been with me during my entire DFS career of 10 years. She’s never drafted a full lineup. Here’s her lineup for tonight chosen almost entirely by hair style and smiles.
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Obviously have
@ASchatzNFL
ebook as well, but looking forward to rocking this hard copy at the pool in San Diego this weekend for the
@DraftKings
$50k best ball event. And to think people think us fantasy sports guys are nerds.
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This main slate looks like absolute garbage. I'm starting to like my chances.
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Currently tied for 10th with 3 others out of over 5000 entries. One week to go!
#CircaSportsMillion
V 🏈🏆
Week 17 Standings Update
📄 Season Standings:
📄 4th Quarter:
📄 Last Place Leaders:
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No matter what you think of Portnoy, he’s the goat in this deal. Basically rents out his company’s name for a few years to receive a few hundred million. Then gets his entire company back but still keeps the 9fig of penn stock. 🐐
Emergency Press Conference - I Bought Back Barstool Sports
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The fact that we get a Mega Millionaire (and that it will likely fill!) on a two game slate during the conference championship is a testament to how strong higher stakes NFL DFS is currently.
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Congrats to
@DraftKings
for filling their $555 entry Milly maker over a week early. This type of entry often had overlay in the past with a much smaller prize pool. Best ball really grown this year.
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DK FFWC underway. Can follow along here. A Justin Fields game stack is currently my best lineup. Watch with me ***
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It took a few decades, but I think we’ve finally reached a point where some NFL coaches are too aggressive on fourth down.
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Currently in 15th out of over 5000 entries in the
#circamillions
, here are my thoughts on a few spreads this week.
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Foundation is in for my new house. Can you guess where the bowling alley is going?
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My four year old daughter told me she's scared and asked me to hold her hand while I put her to sleep.
I told her she should be scared since I'm heavily underweight the Jags passing game in Best Ball and Hanukkah may not be a thing this year if Lawrence has a breakout season.
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Anyone who knows me knows I have an extremely contrarian play style. I expect to lose, in large part because I am consistently trying to fade the public, and the public generally has a good reason for why they roster the players that they do. Every narrative, every bandwagon
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I love how DFS Twitter is 100% convinced Sky Moore will breakout and outproduce MVS by a mile this year, so they’ll draft him 30-50 spots ahead.
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To say the Texans can hold their heads up high after this loss is the understatement of the season. This is a team that has managed to go from near dead last in the league to a likely Super Bowl contender in a few years.
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I may not be in the cardio club but I’m doing some
#daddying
while doing some Best Ball drafts
@UnderdogFantasy
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So it’s the full dolphins stack with the jets D run back that will win I see.
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I think 2023 may be a big leap with Best Ball in the industry. Generally the earlier you start doing the research and doing drafts the better. Personally aiming to get serious about it around June or so instead of late August like past years.
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Mixed feelings about this Google Gemini and yes I realize how asking and then tweeting this makes me look 😂.
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Seeing everyone complain about wsop main event payouts and I'm like "wait there isn't a 90% drop from 1st place to second like many DFS GPP's" 😂
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Got 4 lineups alive in the high stakes best ball milly maker. Which one do you think has the best chance?
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Here are some Circa Millions lines I like (free article). Currently in 22nd out of over 5300 entries!
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It’s a lot easier to upgrade your subscription ala carte style since we moved everything to . But you can also simply just get everything we have to offer for $300 a year which has to make us one of the most affordable sites in the industry.
FTN VIP subscription is now only $25 a month when you sign up for the year. Gets you
@FTNBets
@FTNDaily
and
@FTNFantasy
!!
Get access to all the FTN content, tools, and sharp models and start cashing today ⤵️
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🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
🚨ANNOUNCEMENT🚨
I'm officially joining
@FTNNetwork
full-time as Chief Analytics Officer.
You will be able to access all of my DVOA, DYAR and other stats as well as new written content all season at . 🧵
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First DFS article is up for the season fot FTN Daily subs. LFG!
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After finishing about 300 best ball drafts, I really want to say "alright let's start the season!" And then I realize it's not even August yet.
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Josh Dobbs was better than Deshaun anyways.
CJ Stroud instead of Deshaun Watson makes me think the Texans are suddenly sharp or (more likely) mega luckboxes.
Better to be lucky than sharp tho.
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With my entry in 10th place, I went with:
Steelers -4
Cardinals +2.5
Jets +1.5
Cowboys -13.5
Panthers +4.5
Intentionally went with likely unpopular picks and ones that others take the other side of so I can maybe slide into the top 5.
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Thanks!
📢Join us in wishing the
#NFL
#DFS
🐐,
@TwoGunFF
good luck at the
@DraftKings
$50,000 LIVE Best Ball draft tonight @ 6:30 PST in San Diego! 🏈🍀
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Just think..in about 7 hours, someone somewhere out there on Twitter is gonna post their first victory lap screenshot of the NFL season and use it to tout their service.
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I will be doing a lot of content for ftn daily including my NFL core plays article, Sunday morning live show, and will be in discord quite often. Come check us out.
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Lol Zach Moss 85% in the mega millionaire. Credit to
@AlexBlickle1
for calling it the most mega chalk we've seen in years. May god have mercy on my 25% or so rostership of him.
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Been testing this out some myself and it’s a lot of fun. Especially great if your fantasy league has unique scoring or roster demands.
🚨Announcement 🚨
Due to popular demand, our friends
@FTNFantasy
have created a customizable player projections tool (similar to the old FO KUBIAK) for your fantasy leagues!
You can find it as part of FTN Fantasy+.
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I get releasing the week 1 contests early, but I'll never be a fan of having the salaries set before a preseason game has even been played.
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Getting down to the wire in the
#CircaMillions
contest and I’m currently in 18th out of over 5000. Here are some sides I like this week.
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Went with Bijan and Chubb as first two. Thought abaout Davante Adams instead
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There’s nothing like the playoffs to make coaches too conservative again.
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Some of my favorite picks for this weekend. I'm currently in the top 1% of their Circa Millions contest. Hope that holds!
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Some good calls by me included Ken Walker, Marquise Brown, Saquan Barkley, Keenan Allen, and fading Josh Kelly.
Bad calls by me included DeAndre Hopkins and fading Puka Nacua 🤦♂️
Glad a lot of our subs did well!
𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝟮 = 𝐒𝐌𝐀𝐒𝐇𝐄𝐃 🗣️🚀
Join the squad with the best experts, get advanced data, metrics and projections that'll have you looking down at the competition all NFL season
Start your free trial today ⬇️
🔗
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