Aaron Schatz π
@ASchatzNFL
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Chief Analytics Officer @FTNFantasy. Creator of DVOA. ESPN+ NFL analyst. Ex-radio DJ. AP All-Pro/MVP voter. I specialize in nuanced, ice-cold NFL takes.
Joined October 2009
π¨ANNOUNCEMENTπ¨. I'm officially joining @FTNNetwork full-time as Chief Analytics Officer. You will be able to access all of my DVOA, DYAR and other stats as well as new written content all season at π§΅
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At the risk of angering followers, one political thought. I don't get this idea that 12 random jurors were part of this grand conspiracy to weaponize the American legal system. They were 12 random people! Who the Trump lawyers had an opportunity to reject! 12 randos!.
My statement on President Trump trial verdict: . Today is a shameful day in American history. Democrats cheered as they convicted the leader of the opposing party on ridiculous charges, predicated on the testimony of a disbarred, convicted felon. This was a purely political.
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A reminder: the Chiefs faced the hardest postseason road to a title ever, based on regular-season DVOA of their opponents.
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I'm a little annoyed that NBC keeps talking about social justice initiatives but nobody will address the booing in the pregame "moment of unity.".
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Chiefs-Saints is the only NFL game this week with two teams that have winning records.
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Yeah, I'm feeling pretty confident this is the best offensive game in NFL history. Doing this against a top-5 defense from the regular season? Outstanding.
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So yeah, that win pretty much wins Coach of the Year for Belichick.
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No running back in NFL history has toted the ball 30 to 40 times a game.
Cameron Heyward says Steelers defenders "excited" to have Najee Harris on roster: "Having a guy like that that can tote the rock 30 to 40 times a game really puts an ease for the defense".
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They chose icing the kicker over trying to score in 20 seconds with 2 timeouts.
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Bills made a big mistake with a touchback instead of a squib kick that would take time off the clock.
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I'm glad Odell Beckham Jr. doesn't like to lose. The man wants to be successful at his job. Why do people have an issue with this?.
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Kansas City Chiefs are the first team to be top 5 in all three phases as of Week 7 since the 1999 Rams!. No 4 offense.No 5 defense.No 2 special teams. Others: 1984 Redskins, 1985 Bears, 1990 Giants, 1991 Redskins, 1996 Packers.
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There seems to be a lot of talk about how the Bills played a close game yesterday and therefore are in serious trouble. It was only four weeks ago that the Chiefs went to overtime against Houston. Houston!.
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We talk too much about Josh Allen's interceptions and not enough about the fact that he led the NFL with the lowest sack rate at 4.0%.
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At the risk of angering the Bills fans again . Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are both flourishing in the same way that a Big Mac and a Wagyu steak are both beef.
With Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson flourishing entering their Week 14 matchup, @BuckyBrooks reveals lessons NFL teams must learn from the draft evaluations of those two QBs.
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Despite the close final score, DVOA thinks the Chiefs destroyed the Bills. That's what happens when you get 7.7 yards per play to 4.7 yards per play. Chiefs had 76.1% DVOA for the game.
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This may be the biggest upset in history for a single game. It would be like Pakistan beating a team of NFL all-stars in American football.
USA STUNS PAKISTAN AT THE MENβS T20 CRICKET WORLD CUP π¨. Biggest upset in the sport's history π€―
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The Bills are in a bad salary cap place now. That was their shot.
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Can't tell if it's really a playoff atmosphere in Buffalo or ESPN just has the crowd mics turned up.
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If Aldon Smith can return to the NFL after missing four years, then Colin Kaepernick can return to the NFL after missing three years.
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A lot of NFL analysts feel like a 48-yard field goal is a gimme.
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Someone tell the Chiefs that the Bengals were selling tickets based on the idea that the Jaguars would beat the Chiefs yesterday. Clearly, the Bengals do not respect the Chiefs.
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On his own, Tom Brady would have won two or three Super Bowls. On his own, Bill Belichick would have had a couple. It took working together to go to nine and win six.
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I noted yesterday that I thought Jayden Daniels would lead all QBs in DYAR after yesterday. I was wrong! Lamar Jackson leads all QBs in both passing and rushing DYAR. Lamar Jackson is. dare I say it. the early leader for MVP.
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So Stafford sucked today, Josh Allen sucked today, Prescott sucked today, Mahomes kind of sucked today, and Kyler Murray's backup played awesome and the Cardinals won without him. Tom Brady is going to win the MVP at age 44, isn't he? He's one bad Lamar Jackson game away.
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Chiefs will have hardest SB path by opposing DVOA (4 games) if they beat SF.
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The Buffalo Bills are now No. 1 in both offensive and defensive DVOA. #BillsMafia . No team has been No. 1 in both since Tampa Bay after 2003 Week 6. Only the 2001 Rams and 1987 49ers finished a season No. 1 in both offense and defense.
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OK. Guess we're all doing this. I helped discover the band Creed by playing their unsigned demo on the radio.
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If the Chiefs win this game and then beat the 49ers in the Super Bowl, that will be the most impressive Super Bowl run ever in terms of beating the most difficult possible opponents.
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If Aaron Rodgers is not vaccinated but has not been following protocols for unvaccinated players, he needs to be suspended by the league for at least a couple of games.
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The Packers had pass offense DVOA of 190% today. That's the highest pass offense DVOA in a game in Packers history. Think about that, considering the quarterbacks who have played for the Packers. I'll put together a table in the morning of the top Packers passing games.
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Josh Allen was absolutely fantastic during this Rams win, but the fact that it was a Rams win demonstrates why MVP is about more than win-loss record. which ironically helps make Lamar Jackson's case as much as Allen's case.
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I will admit Iβm confused about other voters who had Prescott and Purdy as first team all pro but not MVP. If you are MVP, donβt you have to be first-team All-Pro?.
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I believe this gentleman is doing what is referred to as "playing football." He got a penalty for it.
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The second presidential debate goes up against Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen and I think I will Iike that better.
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Tony Dungy says on NBC that Dak's injury might be a "blessing in disguise" because the Cowboys will get back to their identity of running the ball first and foremost. Yeah. I don't think that's a blessing in disguise, especially with the current offensive line.
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I think too many people are analyzing last nights game as βwhatβs wrong with Dallasβ and not enough are asking βdid we underrate the Rams?β.
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I just pressed the Popcorn setting on my microwave and it showed me secret spy video of Kellyanne Conway eating lunch.
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And we look forward to seeing Mr. Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills open the 2021 NFL season in Tampa Bay this September.
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Seahawks at Cardinals is by far the most important game of the week for the playoff picture. In our sims, a Seahawks win would make the Seahawks 62% to make the playoffs with the Cardinals 17%. With a Cardinals win, it would be 71% for Arizona and 11% for Seattle.
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I know it's really unlikely but for a moment just imagine the atmosphere around a Cleveland-Buffalo AFC Championship Game.
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One stat doesn't define a line but this is somewhat surprising, ESPN Pass Block Win Rate for the lines for the four rookies. DEN: 1st.WAS: 3rd.CHI: 14th (!).NE: 32nd.
The only thing worse than Shane Waldon is taking a young quarterback whose flaw is he holds onto the ball too long and putting him behind the worst offensive line on planet earth year one.
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Lamar Jackson is now at 1114 passing DYAR* with Jayden Daniels second at 676. The gap between them is larger than the gap between No. 2 Daniels and No. 16 Jordan Love (288 DYAR). This doesn't even include Jackson's rushing value. *Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement.
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I am stunned. McDermott has been one of the most aggressive fourth-down coaches all year. WHAT THE HELL.
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The new leader in quarterback DYAR, the quarterback with the most value by our numbers and thus theoretically the leading candidate for MVP?. It's not Allen, or Herbert. Or Mahomes, or Stafford, or Prescott, or Murray. 44-year-old Tom Brady.
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I didn't even realize that the officials in Foxboro today counted off a 10-yard penalty on KC as only five yards. That's an absurd mistake.
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Whoever is the audio guy for Steelers-Browns needs to win an Emmy for capturing Mike Mitchell's freakout about that face mask penalty.
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Sacks.Tua: 69.Allen: 47. Rushing Yards.Tua: 217.Allen: 1,322.
Last 40 starts: . Tua Allen .10,769 Pass Yds 9,390 .69.0 Comp% 64.5 .72-29 TD-INT 71-28 .102.4 Pass Rating 96.4 . Don't show this to a Bills fan π¬
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I appreciate Miami's win over Buffalo today and they've been better than I expected on defense but be honest, if they played again next week on a neutral field everyone but the Miami fans would take Buffalo to win that game (especially if Jordan Poyer was healthy for Buffalo).
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Schedule strength in the AFC North the rest of the way based on average DVOA of opponents:. Bengals 1 (hardest).Ravens 2.Steelers 9.Browns 24. Advantage, Browns.
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Here you go. Buffalo has now passed Kansas City in weighted DVOA (lowering strength of earlier games). BUF 27.7%.KC 25.2%.
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The problem with the discourse on analytics in the NFL is that it often doesnβt include anyone who can actually explain analytics in the NFL. TV shows will just have four ex-players arguing with a strawman.
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An astonishing stat this year: Jared Goff has only benefited from 1 DPI for 5 yards. Compare that to the top QBs in DPI:. Stafford 16/240.Darnold 14/311.Burrow 14/218.Smith 14/200.Rodgers 12/173. Curious about the MVP candidates? Allen is 9/133 and Jackson is 5/67.
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Uh, doesn't this stadium have a roof?.
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Kansas City was the worst defense in the NFL this year when the team was losing by more than a touchdown. Of course, that's based on just 26 plays, 25 of which came in Week 17. So the Chiefs backups really let things get away from them in that last game.
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From our win probability calculator, @BryKno ran this:. Pass: 36.1% WP.Field Goal: 7.4% WP. Complete insanity.
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Return of the Buffalo Bills defense:. Weeks 1-6: 12.2% DVOA (30th).Weeks 7-12: -12.0% DVOA (7th). #BillsMafia.
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I do think Prescott is in the upper echelon of NFL QBs. Heβs a βwin because ofβ guy you need to pay. I know about the issues in the playoffs. A lot of players have those strugglesβ¦ until the year they suddenly donβt.
π¨ π¨ π¨ . The #Cowboys and QB Dak Prescott have a deal! He gets a 4-year deal worth a record $240M(!) with $231M guaranteed, per me and @TomPelissero. Owner Jerry Jones and agent Todd France and his team from @AthletesFirst closed it out. The NFLβs biggest question answered.
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After Week 12, the 6-6 Bills were 5th in DVOA. The 10-1 Eagles were 9th in DVOA. Advanced metrics work.
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I posted last night about the Eagles defense in Q1-3, I should have looked at just the first half. The Eagles had defensive DVOA of -163% in the first half. By comparison, the 1985 Bears had -137% in the first half. Just an obscene defensive performance.
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Charles Davis says New England is letting you know that if you want to win the AFC East, you still have to go through them. Bills are like, OK. Sure. Golly, if we have to, I guess we can do that.
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Patrick Mahomes is now over 1500 passing DYAR on the season. The only other QBs over 1000 are Goff (!) and Tua. I appreciate Jalen Hurts' rushing value, but come on, Mahomes is the guy.
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I just realized the Raiders beat the Bears yesterday with Trevor Davis and Keelan Doss as their top two receivers. We may need to acknowledge that Jon Gruden is doing a good coaching job over there.
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Did NBC really just run a highlight package specifically to congratulate themselves for making everyone watch Peacock?.
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Don't feel like waiting until the morning for this one. #BillsMafia is now the best 3-1 team ever according to DVOA. Opponent adjustments = 40%. Teams with asterisk had a bye week so this represents Week 5, not Week 4, for those teams.
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Since more police violence has returned Colin Kaepernick as a topic of discussion, a reminder: no other QB of Kaepernick's age and experience ever just disappeared from the NFL without a contract no matter how bad that QB sucked.
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A thought about the Peacock wild card game. It would feel a lot different if it was on Amazon Prime. You already may have gotten Prime for the entire TNF package. But subscribing to Peacock for just two games? That feels intrusive.
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Young athletes never had heart problems before COVID vaccines.
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The Bills, Bengals, and Chiefs all lost in Week 1. Theyβll all be fine in the long run.
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Every year I write an article revealing and explaining my All-Pro votes after the team is officially announced. This year's article turned into a very long explanation of why I was one of the 5 voters who did not put Lamar Jackson first-team.
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This is the greatest argument against establishing the run that has ever been seen.
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Exciting @AP All-Pro news! The AP All-Pro team is going to 12 starters on each side of the ball!. -- Fullback voting returns!.-- New: SLOT cornerback position. We'll vote for two outside CB and one slot CB. Awesome to make this happen and do more to reward important players!.
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The thing that surprises me about Russell Wilson is just how much schadenfreude everyone seems to be feeling about his struggles. Sure, he's a bit of a weirdo. He's also won the Walter Payton Man of the Year Award. He seems like a good person. Why delight in his fall?.
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I don't understand why everyone on Twitter is insisting that the Raiders were playing for the tie until Staley took a timeout. Until we hear Bisaccia say that out loud, why should we believe it is true? They were playing to win and avoid the Chiefs.
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One thing about Joe Burrow who is having an absolutely fabulous year is that he's had 649 pass plays and Patrick Mahomes is the only other QB with more than 600. So some of those numbers are pumped up by volume.
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I'm really disappointed in the Bills coaching staff today for a variety of reasons.
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This is my fifth year as an official AP All-Pro voter and every year I write a column explaining all of my votes. Here's the column for 2024. Less controversial than last year, I think!.
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A reminder: The Eagles beat the Rams. The Seahawks beat the Eagles. The Falcons beat the Seahawks. The Vikings beat the Falcons. The Lions beat the Vikings. The Saints beat the Lions. The Rams beat the Saints. Therefore, the New England Patriots will win Super Bowl LII.
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Based on DVOA, the Chiefs had their two best single games of the year in the last two weeks. The wild-card win was fifth.
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One more All-Pro note, looks like I was the only Christian Benford first-place vote. Think I was right though! #BillsMafia
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I don't understand this argument that you should vote for All-Pro in one season based on how many playoff wins a player has in past seasons. The 2024 All-Pro team is for 2024 not for the 2023 playoffs.
@ASchatzNFL Lamar Jackson has 2 playoff wins in 8 seasons, fewer than Marcus Mariota and the same number as Gardner Minshew.
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The Patriots do not care about where other teams might take players.
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Heh, the Titans are going to be the No. 1 seed. Probably will be the worst No. 1 seed ever by DVOA.
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There's going to be a lot of talk in the next 2 weeks about whether Patrick Mahomes is the GOAT. I liked the Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract because he ranked players two ways: peak and career. I think it's clear Mahomes has passed Brady and Manning as the Peak GOAT.
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One of the big things about the KC game tonight is that no matter how cold it is, an ambulance can travel if a player gets severely injured. Iβm guessing they were worried that would not be possible in the Buffalo snowstorm tomorrow.
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It's amazing if you think about how many people are posting things on Twitter tonight about Josh Allen winning MVP and only one of those people has actually done the deed. π.
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Xavier Worthy finished with 87 receiving DYAR which is No. 4 all time in Super Bowls and the best individual WR Super Bowl for anyone not named Jerry Rice. Too bad it all came too late.
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How on earth did the NFL schedule end up with the Indianapolis Colts playing five of their six division games in the first seven weeks?.
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Nobody from Baltimore has said anything nice to me about my vote for Mike Macdonald for Assistant Coach of the Year.
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This is the defensive DVOA top four with opponent adjustments at 40% right now:. BUF-49.8%.NO-18.5%.CLE-16.2%.CAR-15.3%. Holy #BillsMafia.
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Yesterday, #BillsMafia had a single-game DVOA of 65.4%. It is Buffalo's 6th game above 50% this year. When the Bills are good, they are very, very good. No other team has more than 4 such games (Rams, Bucs).
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Aaron Rodgers knows when you have 12 men. He knows when you're offside. He knows when you've been sleeping and when you're awake.
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Totally random NFL stat: The average NFL team ran 22 RB screens last season. The Baltimore #Ravens ran 2. TWO!.
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