Mariko Togashi / 富樫真理子
@TogashiMariko
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Researching economic security & tech policy. @APInitiative / @IISS_org / tech sector equity analyst / @SAISHopkins / Keio.
Joined July 2021
Japan released its new National Security Strategy on Dec 16. The document is no less historic for Japan's economic security policy than for the defence policy. Here are my five takes: 1/6.
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Japan’s Ministry of Defense will accelerate efforts to review the three principles on defense equipment transfer to enable exports of potentially lethal equipment to allies, which can help Japan strengthen its defense industry.
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① The NSS defines economic security and elevates it to a national security concept. The document defines economic security for the first time and incorporates it into the national interests and security challenges sections. 2/6.
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③ While describing China as ‘an unprecedented and the greatest strategic challenge’, it says ‘it is possible [for Japan] to cooperate with China in the fields of economy and people-to-people exchange in a mutually beneficial way,’ which implies its continuous path to build 4/6.
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② The NSS links economic security and national security/defence. One of the security objectives is to create ‘a virtuous cycle of security and economic growth,’ showing a holistic view. It also integrates economic security and defence in areas such as tech and intel. 3/6.
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⑤ The NSS adds economic security to the purposes of ODA, giving Tokyo a tool to spread its economic security policy. Overall, these shifts enable Japan to counter the security challenges in the Indo-Pacific more firmly in the next decade by taking an integrated approach. 6/6.
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a “constructive and stable relationship,” balancing rivalry and partnership. ④ The NSS reveals Tokyo’s economic security agenda, including implementation and reinforcement of the law, measures to protect and foster critical technologies, security clearance system, etc. 5/6.
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Mitsubishi Electric announced that it signed a contract with the Australian DoD for a joint defense equipment development project - a very first contract in Japan that a Japanese company has signed directly with a foreign government in the defense sector.
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MoD's budget request for FY2023: A record-high JPY 5.59tn and 90+ itemized requests, including standoff missiles (long-range strike), the mass production cost of 12SSM (extending range), design and engine purchase for "Aegis System Equipped Ship" (missile intercept), etc. 1/2.
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Next year, Japan will build more submarine cables, including new routes between Japan and Europe, with the private sector. Promoting decentralised communications network to enhance economic security.
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Daikin, a global top AC company, will establish a supply chain for ACs without parts made in China in FY2023. It will also request that its suppliers produce their products outside of China. Daikin's procurement from China was 35% in 2020 and 20% in 2021.
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僭越ながら…. It was so nice to talk about a think tank career with @marinadickson01!.
【本日公開📣】 #地経学インサイト 番外編. 若手シンクタンカーのキャリア. 富樫真理子 客員研究員が.✏️なぜシンクタンクで働こうと思ったのか.✏️なぜ国際政治に関心を持ったのか.✏️海外と日本のシンクタンクの違い.について語ります！. 動画はこちらから👇.
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9月13日21:00（日本時間）より、日本と西側諸国の対ロ制裁協調について、日米欧の専門家をお招きし、IISS経済安保ウェビナーシリーズの第二弾を開催します。鈴木一人先生@KS_1013 もお話し下さいます。. 是非ご参加ください。.
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Japan is finally moving towards creating a security clearance system. Interesting to see how the government designs the system, given Japan's unique attitude, culture, and custom towards information.
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Tokyo established the Office of Economic Security Promotion, bringing around 50 officials from METI, MOD and other ministries. Operational guidelines to be approved by the end of Sep, specified critical materials to be designated by the end of the year.
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What’s this year’s G7 agenda? What are the priorities? What is Japan’s role? .Register here for tomorrow’s webinar!.
In this webinar, the IISS Japan Chair is delighted to host experts: @norishikata, @USCDornsife, @charles_clover and @SheilaSmithCFR to discuss Japan and its G7 partners' priorities for the Hiroshima Summit. 📅 Tuesday 21 February (online). Register now:
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Tokyo considers building a shelter for residents in Okinawa in the event of a military contingency in Taiwan. Further measures to protect citizens during contingencies are expected to be included in the new National Security Strategy, reports Kyodo.
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The recording is now available - watch our second economic security webinar on sanctions coordination chaired by @RobertAlanWard ! Thank you, @KS_1013, @brianoftoole and @maria_shagina for the great discussion!
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Mitsubishi Heavy withdraws from the jetliner business after 15 years and spending around 1 trillion yen. A lot to learn from this for not only MHI but also for the government. METI spent 50 billion yen to support the project.
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"Our new approach is based on 3 areas: military strength, economic security and deeper global alliances" - said Liz Truss in the Mansion House speech in April. Time to review her views on economic security. 1/3.
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Japan will add 9 industries, including semiconductors and storage batteries, to the priority screening list on inbound stock investment to secure supply chains and prevent technology outflows.
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Delighted to announce the Japan Chair Programme will be hosting Minister of Economic Security Kobayashi Takayuki - my first project at @IISS_org!.
The IISS Japan Chair is delighted to host Japan’s Minister of Economic Security His Excellency Kobayashi Takayuki @kobahawk to discuss where Japan’s economic security strategy is headed – with @RobertAlanWard and @bill_emmott. #Webinar | Register now:.
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It was truly my honour to be able to talk about the measures to counter economic coercion this morning. Thank you very much @wendyscutler and @AsiaPolicy!.
This morning we were excited to host an all-star panel including @VictorDCha, Melanie Hart, @TogashiMariko, Ryuichi Funatsu, and ASPI's @wendyscutler. Thought-provoking discussion on how to combat economic coercion and unfair trade practices.
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Tokyo to support unmanned marine explorers and hypersonic technologies in the effort to enhance economic security. The experts will draft their planned visions for R&D in August; GoJ plans to adopt them at a cabinet meeting on economic security.
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TSMC in talks to build its first European plant in Germany - massive subsidy, local production for the auto industry, expected staff shortage, etc., similar to the Kumamoto plant.
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Starting soon!.
Zoominar tomorrow! Register today -> #Japan Zoominar @UCSanDiego : "Japan’s Economic Security and Role in Global Supply Chains" with @TogashiMariko of IISS, moderated by @UlrikeSchaede. Register: 11/21 4:00 pm PST (Wed 11/22 9:00 am JST)
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Japan to establish a new post at Embassies to support Japanese companies’ overseas business, based on a view that the current geopolitical shift in the global economy is creating more business opportunities.
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What are the takes from this year's Shangri-La Dialogue and the implications to Japan? Bill Emmott, Dr Valerie Niquet, Dr @kenj0126, and we share our views🇸🇬#SLD23 #JapanMemo.
In this #JapanMemo, @RobertAlanWard, @YukaKoshino and @TogashiMariko report live from #SLD23 with:. ➡️ Highlights from the Dialogue.➡️ Interviews with key experts.➡️ Analysis of the key developments . Tune in now:
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Was honoured to be able to attend PM @kishida230’s speech in person this morning! A "new form of capitalism" is to pursue both economic growth and solving social challenges. Japan has to (1) eliminate distribution blockages, (2) overcome underinvestment in value-added sectors…
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Japan's cabinet decided the guidelines for designating strategically important goods that will receive government support as part of an economic security promotion law to protect supply chains.
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METI Minister Nishimura requested Mitsubishi Corp give favourable consideration to continuing its investment in a new company of Sakhalin 2. Former Minister Hagiuda also made a similar request to Mitsui. Decisions to be made by the end of the month.
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It was my pleasure to discuss economic security in the Taiwan contingency scenario with @MartijnRasser and @MeiaNouwens at #JapanMemo. A lot to discuss from the perspectives of the US, China, Taiwan, and Japan. Thanks for being a great host, @YukaKoshino!.
#JapanMemo: @MartijnRasser, @MeiaNouwens & @TogashiMariko join @YukaKoshino to discuss:. ➡️ The economic security policies of the US, China, Taiwan and Japan.➡️ Preparing for a Taiwan contingency.➡️ A contingency’s impact on economic security. Tune in now:
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If you’re in London and free this Thursday, please join the event! I will be talking about Japan’s economic security and the global competition in semiconductors.
Interesting article on Japan's ban of export of semiconductors: If you want to know more, come to our talk by @TogashiMariko next Thursday 9 Feb, at 6pm. Register here for free:
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Happening tomorrow!.
Japan is a leading innovator in economic security policy, but where is its policy heading and how can Tokyo navigate a new era of strategic competition? Join us on Thursday 12 May for a special discussion with Minister of Economic Security .@kobahawk
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日印関係の両国にとっての戦略的重要性について少し前に書きました！.
富樫真理子API松本佐俣フェロー@TogashiMariko による論考. #ロシア の #ウクライナ 侵攻への対応など、外交戦略では相違も存在する日本と #インド 。一方で #中国 を念頭に日印関係は強化されており、安全保障に加え経済・技術分野でも協力が見られると指摘します。.
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Spoke about Japan’s semiconductor policy from an economic security perspective at @fccjapan with @AkiraIgata who covered economic security policy more comprehensively. Thank you for the great opportunity!
Video of Japan's Economic Security in the age of increasing tension between China and the USA by Mariko Togashi and Akira Igata event (October 18, 2022) available here:
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A very interesting poll on Japanese companies' Taiwan contingency plans. Concerns include evacuation plans for expatriates, securing transportation and communication, business continuity, preventing leakage of confidential information in Taiwan, etc.
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Japan will include responses to economic coercion, such as trade restrictions and forced technology transfers by foreign countries in its economic security guidelines finalized by the end of this year.
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Don’t miss @bill_emmott, @VNiquet, and @kenj0126’s take from this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue! #SLD23.
On this special #SLD23 edition of #JapanMemo, @RobertAlanWard, @YukaKoshino and @TogashiMariko offer their on-the-ground analysis of the critical moments from this year’s IISS Shangri-La Dialogue and Japanese Defense Minister Hamada Yasukazu’s speech. 🎧
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If semiconductor production stops in Taiwan due to the Chinese invasion, the impact on the global economy will be - $1 trillion per year, said US Director of National Intelligence Haines.
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Japan and the EU will share information on government support for the semiconductor industry, including requirements, reasons, the amount of subsidies and the outlook for supply and demand, to create a clear distinction in the types of product. 1/2.
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My first blog at the IISS is out! Enhancing economic security requires taking both security and market principles into account. Semiconductor policy is no exception.
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Thank you very much for having me! I enjoyed the stimulating discussion.
A big thank you to @TogashiMariko for last night's presentation on Japan’s Economic Security and the Global Competition in Semiconductors. Thank you also to those who joined us and contributed to the discussion of pertinent issues in an engaging Q&A session.
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Japan's new NSS is likely to express China as "the biggest strategic challenge ever" (which was "an issue of concern to the international community" in the 2013 NSS).
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A Japanese sovereign wealth fund (JIC) will acquire JSR, a semiconductor materials company, for approx. JPY 1tn. JSR holds the largest market share globally (28%) for photoresists.
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I truly enjoyed being part of the webinar, discussing how like-minded countries can coordinate their semiconductor policies🇯🇵🇺🇸🇰🇷.
Privileged to have chaired this formidable panel of experts with @TogashiMariko yesterday on semiconductor collaboration between Japan, US, South Korea and others. With thanks to @nikkei_yasuota, Meghan Harris (GlobalFoundries) and Dr Chi Ung Song (🇰🇷’s STEPI). And thanks to the
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Semiconductor sales growth slowing down in June - a reminder that strategically important products are still cyclical, no matter how big the wave is.
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Japan, the UK, and Italy will jointly develop the next-gen fighter aircraft for deployment in 2035. A big shift from Japan's reliance on the US. The US "supports" the trilateral cooperation. 1/3.
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The Quad meeting was held in Tokyo. The four leaders opposed to coercive change of the status quo in the Indo-Pacific - @VirajSolanki_ and I argue that Japan and India have reached a new level of strategic convergence.
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Why is Japan increasing its military spending? @kenj0126, @ElliPohlkamp and I answered to this question in 100 words. Check out The Hundred!.
国際社会を取り巻く疑問に100ワードで回答する、という面白い試み「The Hundred」。@TogashiMariko さんとともに登場しました。. Why is Japan increasing its military spending?
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The tax reform request included a tax incentive to lighten the corporate tax on defence-related companies that adopts cyber security measures for their communication systems. 2/2.
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Nikkei questioning the effectiveness of Japan’s semiconductor policy for economic security - in line with my analysis published in March.
Japan’s moves to boost its semiconductor industry are seen as an important way of protecting supply chains and enhancing economic security, explains @TogashiMariko. Read the latest analysis ⬇️ .
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Kishida will hold talks with major foreign semiconductor-related companies (TSMC, Applied Materials, IBM, Intel, Micron, Samsung, and imec) to urge them to invest aggressively in Japan and cooperate with Japanese companies.
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India's Tata will enter the semiconductors business within a few years to make the country a crucial part of global chip supply chains. Tata will start from assembly&testing and seek the opportunity to enter upstream fabrication.
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The number of Japanese companies entering the Chinese market hit the lowest in the past 10 years as of June 2022.
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"By being tough and united, by working together and expanding trade, we can deprive aggressors of their leverage and we can reduce strategic dependence.".3/3.
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"Access to the global economy must depend on playing by the rules. Countries must play by the rules. And that includes China." 2/3.
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“Togashi said it is very costly -- and impossible in many cases -- to build a completely self-reliant supply chain, so like-minded nations must be included in the circle.” Check out the article with my latest comment here! .
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Nikkei poll shows 50% of Japanese companies would reduce their ratio of Chinese suppliers, 90% of them citing Japan as an alternative. 78% says China risk has increased in the past 6m, 80% of them raising Taiwan contingency as reason.
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The project that I’ve been working on has been released! API launched the National Economic Security Strategy Project. Check out our new website!.
#経済安全保障 を政権の正面に据え、経済安全保障担当大臣を設けた #岸田内閣 。日本の経済安全保障戦略はどうあるべきなのか。.APIでは国家経済安全保障戦略プロジェクトが始動しました。. プロジェクトページはこちらから↓.
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Nikkei points out a critical issue of Japan's defence industry: the culture of "patience" dragging down the development of Japan's defence industry - we cannot expect companies to be "patient" to sustain an unprofitable business.
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The webinar on Japan’s sanctions coordination with the West will be happening tomorrow! Please register from below if you haven’t yet!.
Join our upcoming #webinar hosted by the IISS Japan Chair @RobertAlanWard!. 📅 Tuesday 13 September.⏰ 8AM EDT | 1PM BST | 2PM CEST | 3PM AST | 8PM SGT .💬 Dr Suzuki Kazuto, @maria_shagina, Brian O’Toole and @TogashiMariko. Register now: .
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The question is - a few large, excellent companies may be able to absorb the increased costs by improving efficiency, but what about SMEs? How can we afford higher costs and lower profitability when our economy already faces too many challenges - is what we have to think.
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Daikin will even ask its suppliers to build new factories outside of China for those who only have production sites in China. Another example of Japanese companies going above and beyond the government regulations.
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We are hiring!.
We are looking for a research assistant to join our IISS Japan Chair Programme team to work with.@RobertAlanWard, @TogashiMariko, and me!. Apply by 21 May if you are interested!.
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Energy security is critical for Japan - but what is the impact of the war in Ukraine? How is Japan’s energy policy aligning with its security strategy? Listen to our latest Japan Memo episode!.
In the latest episode of #JapanMemo, Terazawa Tatsuya joins @RobertAlanWard and @TogashiMariko to discuss:.➡️ Ukraine’s impact on Japan’s energy security .➡️ Opportunities to diversify Japan’s energy mix.➡️ Aligning Japan’s energy and security policy.
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Demand grows for Asian investment products that exclude China - Another sign that the private sector is becoming a security actor in the era of geoeconomics by making decisions that will collectively affect states’ power. 1/2.
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US & Japan to cooperate in 2nm chips and beyond. It's not easy to catch up with TSMC (plans to mass-produce 2nm~ from 2025) and Samsung, but Japan has a chance due to its strength in material and equipment, which may be key to new-gen chips.
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GoJ will establish a new expert panel to discuss increases in defence spending and financial resources. The panel will discuss necessary defence capabilities, the size of the budget and financial resources. The first meeting to be held in Sep.
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Japan asked the U.S. and Australia to increase LNG output to reduce energy dependency on Russia on the sidelines of the first-ever energy ministers' meeting under the Quad framework. Listen to our latest podcast to learn more about Japan's energy policy! .
In the latest #JapanMemo episode, IISS expert @maria_shagina joins @RobertAlanWard and @TogashiMariko to understand the significance and impact of economic measures taken by Japan in response to Russian atrocities in Ukraine. 🎧 Listen now:
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Japan will provide up to 92.9 bn yen (more than 30% of the total cost) to Kioxia and Western Digital Corp to stabilize advanced memory chip production - Another significant investment in the semiconductor sector after the subsidy for TSMC.
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Recording now available both in Japanese and English!.
The recording of the IISS Japan Chair’s webinar with Japan’s Economic Security Minister @kobahawk is now live on our website | Available in English and Japanese ⬇️
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TSMC is considering a second plant in Japan if there is enough demand and adequate government incentives.
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U.S. Senate adopted a resolution honouring former PM Abe - Abe laid a "lasting foundation" for the two countries' partnership and left an "indelible mark on the politics, economy, and society of Japan, as well as prosperity and security around the world."
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IPEF countries "will agree to improve information sharing and a system that enables alternative supply chain sources" to prepare for "shortages and shutdown of supply in semiconductors and important materials," - Nikkei reported. 1/2.
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Thank you for the great discussion @bill_emmott and @FMcGerty! Listen to our latest podcast on Japan’s economy and its defence budget increase👇.
In this #JapanMemo, @TogashiMariko hosts @bill_emmott and @FMcGerty to analyse:.➡️ Japan’s economy and its defence spending.➡️ PM Kishida’s New Capitalism.➡️ Japan’s defence budget increase to 2% of GDP. 🎧 Tune in now:
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Yaskawa, one of the big 4 in industrial robotics, will establish a new plant in Japan in 2027 for key components, doubling domestic production. Y will double its own production ratio of key components for inverters in Japan to 50% by 2027 reducing China.
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Yoon said, “substantial cooperation among Korea, Japan, the US, Taiwan, and other countries leading the semiconductor industry will contribute to the stability of the international supply chain” - improving Japan-Korea relationship may push Chip4 forward.
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Takaichi, the chairperson of the LDP, expressed her intention to revise the Economic Security Promotion Law to expand the scope in 2023 and called for the introduction of the security clearance system.
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Thank you very much @cuimpb1 and @CidobBarcelona, for having me! I very much enjoyed the rich discussion on Asian and European perspectives on the future of the international order.
¿Un nuevo orden internacional con características asiáticas?Normas, principios y ideas desde Asia. Mesa redonda en #ordreeuroasia con @TogashiMariko.Irene Arco, Olivia Cheung y Sharinee Jagtiani @CidobBarcelona @SOAS_CI @ibei @IISS_org @ycapsjapan @hcssnl
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Japan set to organize a meeting for Sri Lanka's debt restructuring - An important initiative to provide a solution for the so-called debt trap. An attempt to fix the problem, not coercing nor deepening division unnecessarily.
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METI will subsidize SUMCO's new factory in Saga by JPY75bn, covering 1/3 of the total cost, for domestic supply and stable export to the US and Europe. SUMCO is a global no.2 silicon wafer maker.
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MHI is now aiming to develop the next-gen fighter jets for deployment in 2035 with the UK and Italy.
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本日21時から、制裁協調のウェビナーを開催いたします。日米欧の制裁協調は、今後、ロシア以外の国に制裁を発動する際にも鍵となるテーマです。是非ご視聴ください！.
9月13日21:00（日本時間）より、日本と西側諸国の対ロ制裁協調について、日米欧の専門家をお招きし、IISS経済安保ウェビナーシリーズの第二弾を開催します。鈴木一人先生@KS_1013 もお話し下さいます。. 是非ご参加ください。.
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ROK's dilemma in the US-China confrontation over semiconductors: the US trying to bring the ROK into the semiconductor supply chain framework, and China strongly discouraging inclination toward the US - Another reason why Japan and ROK should cooperate.
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MUFG starts an inventory finance business, which allows companies to off-balance their inventories, including semiconductors - one of the interesting examples of supply chain disruptions creating new business opportunities.
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It’s time for Tokyo to get these done so that Japan will have the tools to navigate this era of great power competition.
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On Sep 13, we will be hosting the second episode of the economic security webinar series on Japan and the West's sanctions coordination against Russia. Register from here! .
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About 1,000 companies are involved in the development of fighter aircraft. This shift can maintain the foundation of Japan's defence industry by expanding the market, which has been limited to the SDF. Many companies withdrew from the market due to low profit margins. 2/3.
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(3) increase labour in new areas, (4) promote diversity, and (5) achieve healthy economic metabolism. These targets require investment in people; science, technology and innovation; start-ups; and green and digital initiatives, says PM Kishida.
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Japan’s PM @kishida230 is giving the keynote speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue this year. Japan’s PM attending for the first time since 2014🇯🇵 #SLD22.
We are delighted to announce that @JPN_PMO Kishida Fumio will deliver the Keynote Speech at the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue @kishida230 | Find out more about #SLD22:
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Nikkei points out Japanese companies' concerns about the implementation of the new economic security law's core infrastructure regulation. JP companies facing inflation, JPY depreciation, and economic security requirements - a tough situation to navigate.
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Japanese construction machinery companies and machine tool companies stopped shipping their products to Russia. The article points out that Chinese companies may take the market share. They definitely will.
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It was my honour to be able to chair the session @Kwekii! Thank you for the great presentation👏#SLD23.
Honored to be back at Shangri-la Dialogue again as a Southeast Asian Young Leader this year. I also had the opp to speak at a Young leaders-led session on “Avoiding War in Asia Pacific” where I shared my analysis of the situation over Taiwan Straits & SEA’s stakes in it. #SLD23
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Enabling the Japan-US-EU network of info-sharing, a critical step for econ sec cooperation. Closely watching the implementation, which will show how like-minded countries can overcome the competitive elements towards a shared goal of developing a stable supply network. 2/2.
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All major papers covered McDonald's leaving Russia. Nikkei reports in a slightly different tone than others - focusing more on commercial reasons. I believe this is more about companies starting to take ethics into account in making business decisions.
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The key issue moving forward is the export. Currently, Japan cannot export offensive equipment such as fighter jets other than the joint development countries. The UK's and Italy's exports to third countries can be hindered, as the aircraft will include Japanese parts. 3/3.
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Tokyo is one step away from submitting the new economic security bill to the Diet.
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