Thomas M Mertens
@ThomasMMertens
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Economist @sffed with research on (international) finance, monetary policy, and the macroeconomics. All views are my own.
Joined August 2020
Charting the change in the jobless unemployment rate (first derivative) on the horizontal axis and the change in the change (second derivative) on the vertical axis visualizes business cycles. Expansion months are in blue, recession months in red.
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A big thanks to the USC Marshall School's faculty for hosting an amazing macro-finance conference!.
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RT @paulnovosad: Fascinating paper on where 6000 global elites went to college. Billionaires, CEOs, heads of state, central bankers, etc.….
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RT @MaryDalyEcon: I shared more of my thoughts today at @Stanford @HooverInst - thanks to Senior Fellow @JohnHCochrane for the terrific con….
www.frbsf.org
SF Fed President Mary C. Daly at Stanford University's Hoover Institution.
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RT @sffed: Just how much has the cooling economy reduced inflation? A recent Economic Letter by Regis Barnichon and Adam Shapiro found that….
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RT @sanjayrajsingh: Call for Papers: 10th Annual West Coast Workshop in International Finance will be held at Santa Clara University. Submi….
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RT @michaelbauer_hh: 🚨Call for Papers🚨.Together with the Bank of Canada and the Chicago Fed, we're organizing a Conference on #FixedIncome….
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Having to update my website always feels like having to go to the dentist. I dread it beforehand - but then I'm so happy when it's done. Here's the product:.
sites.google.com
I work at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco as Vice President of Financial Research.* * The views expressed on this webpage or in information linked to it do not necessary represent the views...
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RT @michaelbauer_hh: This has been a while in the making but now we're live! You can check out our research, events and data products at ht….
www.frbsf.org
Research and tools for understanding the links between monetary policy, financial markets, and the macroeconomy.
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RT @NickTimiraos: SF Fed research: The unemployment rate has been a very good near-term predictor of recessions. "The jobless rate does no….
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Jobless unemployment falls during months to the left, bottom out at 12 o'clock, and rise to the right. Recessions tend to occur AFTER jobless unemployment troughs. See my recent Economic Letter how this can be used to predict recessions:
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RT @sffed: Is there another way to predict recessions? Our latest Economic Letter suggests that the jobless #unemployment rate as a predict….
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RT @sffed: Do we know when a recession will happen? Our latest Economic Letter discusses the jobless unemployment rate as an advance predic….
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RT @sffed: Service occupations and jobs with close social contact were hit the worst by the pandemic recession. Our latest Letter discusses….
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RT @DallasFed: Lorie K. Logan is named as the Dallas Fed’s next president and CEO.
www.dallasfed.org
The Dallas Fed's board of directors is undertaking a search for a new Reserve Bank president.
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Recession indicators from the yield curve are sending mixed signals. @michaelbauer_hh and I are sorting through them in today's SF Fed EL: We argue in favor of the 10y-3m spread.
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With the yield curve quite flat in some parts, here are links to SF Fed Economic Letters I wrote with @michaelbauer_hh: and Thanks to @MaryDalyEcon for highlighting our research.
www.frbsf.org
The ability of the Treasury yield curve to predict future recessions has recently received a great deal of public attention. An inversion of the yield curve—when short-term interest rates are higher...
"It’s really important not to rest our views on one metric. It’s a preponderance of evidence.” @MaryDalyEcon on the recent, brief inversion of the yield curve. Read more from our economists in a previously posted economic letter: @CBER_UNLV @WoodsGoods
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The correlation between uncertainty shocks and changes in inflation expectations has turned negative over the past 25 years. In a recent paper, we argue that the lower bound on interest rates is the key factor behind it.
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RT @NYFedResearch: In Staff Reports⬇️ . Macroeconomic Drivers and the Pricing of Uncertainty, Inflation, and Bonds….
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