Switchblade
@Switchblade97
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I refute & demolish false wrestling narratives & agendas with facts. I offer impartial analysis of the business side of wrestling
Joined June 2021
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I went through a year of Bucks segments on Dynamite between August 2022 & August 2023 and found that they lost on average 46,000 viewers every time they had a segment and lost viewers on 23 out of 28 times.
This is an honest question, because I really don’t know, but have any of the large podcasts or large publications covered the fact that the bucks turn away a large portion of the audience on a regular basis? If not, can someone ask them why they haven’t brought this up before?
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BJ Whitmer's domestic violence victim received a cash settlement from AEW and was made to sign an NDA in return.
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So I go to read this week's Observer and the first thing I see is this about the All In attendance. Just so we are keeping score.
Brent Council - 72,265
Metropolitan Police - 72,265
Dave Meltzer - 85,228
Who should we beleive?
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@JulianWks
The thing is, it's even worse than what Dave is saying. Tony gave credibility to Punk's account while undermining the credibility of his own credibility as well as the credibility of the Perry's account (given by Alvarez). Punk comes out looking truthful, while they don't.
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Also, below is evidence of both Brent Council & the Met Police confirming the attendance figure of 72,265.
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And before anyone says that the data was compiled by Patrick Laparde, Dave still posted it in his newsletter without any kind of disclaimer.
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@MatBabiak
How can the data be cherry picked? This was compiled in August of 2023 and included every segment on a Bucks show for an entire year. Absolutely no cherry picking. I am just reposting it now.
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Pollstar says AEW sold 7,131 tix for Big Business. This is funny because on the day of the show, WrestleTix counted 7.8k tix distributed & then
@davemeltzerWON
out of nowhere reported 9,306 tix sold. Pretty obvious Dave was fed some PR numbers by somebody.
New data from Pollstar for AEW Dynamite "Big Bu$iness":
03/13/2024
"All Elite Wrestling"
TD Garden - Boston, MA
Tickets sold: 7,131
Calculated average ticket sold: $59
USD gross: $423,913
WrestleTix final count of distributed had this at 9,514.
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@DrainBamager
FTR/White & Juice was miles better and is easily the best tag match in AEW history.
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@CommonS37481141
@davemeltzerWON
Wouldn't be surprised. Any kind of internal investigation for pretty much any company is not about finding the truth. Its damage limitation.
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Isn't it funny how no one is able to give a number for this "significantly increased price"?
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@AIRGold_
@bullyray5150
Bully was 100% right. There are only so many bangers you can take before the effect of them wears off. This is basic human psychology. The night after, instead of giving Ospreay a promo segment to build his character coming off the match, TK just threw him in another match
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If people wonder why AEW and
@TonyKhan
gets so much hate, these comments from Tony Khan from a few years ago are a perfect example. Not only did Tony go on to most of the same mistakes that WCW made, he did them before acheiving the level of success that
@EBischoff
did.
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@TrevorDame
Personally, I find it hard to beleive it was so widely known yet that stuff didn't leak to the dirtsheets. I think Vince's claims of telling everyone may have been him manipulating her or living out some sick fantasy.
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What was posted in the Observer is what I beleive is the alleged tickets distributed number. The discrepancy between this tix distributed & drop counte is 12,963. That works out to be a no show rate of 15.2%, by far the largest no rate on record for wrestling for a show with 20+.
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It appears that she received over $60,000 in payments as well as signed an NDA. Payments began 6/16, 3 days after BJ was terminated.
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So one analysts estimates losing NBA will cost WBD $270m in ad rev annually but a potential 45% decline in affiliate fees. TNT currently gets $3 per sub. That would mean a loss of $1.35 x 70m per month. That's a loss of $1.13b in revenue a year. 1/5
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For the week ending April 28th, Raw ranked 18th, Dynamite 43rd, Collision 49th & NXT 55th. With the talk of AEW being WCW 2000, let's compare rankings for the same week ending April 30th 2000, in the midst of the Russo/Bischoff Era. Look at wrestling crushing the NBA play offs
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Brutal number for Dynamite again. 672k/0.23. The numbers have been atrocious since this new Elite angle began. Trend since Big Business and the Punk footage airing has been alarming.
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@MeltzerSaidWhat
This must be a typo. I think he means that it would make it the most successful non WWE promotion in history which would be true when you don't adjust for inflation. WCW peaked at around $200m and $50-60m in profit.
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@GreatBrianFirst
There was a time when the Dirtsheet wrestling community/IWC were up in arms when Hogan no sold Vaders powerboat & they said that it killed Vader's credibility. But its ok when a guy whomweighs 150lbs soaking wet does it.
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Dynamite did 672k/0.23. The numbers have tanked since the airing of the Punk footage & since the Young Bucks have become the main focus of the show. For those that doubted my data which showed the Bucks averaged losing 41k every segment, don't say it wasn't expected.
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@Cigano300
Of course they aren't profitable. Not even close. I wouldnt be surprised if they are making WCW 2000 level losses at the moment. They really need a big rights fee increase to make AEW a viable business financially.
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@TSmitty3000
@JulianWks
Because they don't actually care about the victim and the rape. If they did, they would be going after the US military and asking these question of them. Thats not to say the company culture at WWE isn't disgusting, because it is.
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The counter argument is that a 10-20% no show rate is normal for other sports. Interestingly, a report was done by the BBC on Premier League Clubs and the discrepancy between actual attendance vs attendance reported by clubs. Below were the main findings.
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@WWEbotched
Its semantics. Non disclosure clauses are in the handbook. Though P New was quite careless with his wording especially for a lawyer.
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Just an update to this table. I made a mistake in recording the quarters for the 6/21 episode of Dynamite. I recorded it as a 115k loss when it should have been a 39k gain. This changes the average loss to -41k viewers instead of -46k and 22 out of 28 segments showing a loss.
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@TrevorDame
Feds are investigsting now. If the evidence is legit, Vince will be criminally charged and stand trial and face the rest if his life in jail. Not much more to say at this point aside from let it play out.
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@TrevorDame
Thats fair, but its funny I haven't heard anyone go after the US military/navy, the organisation that the alleged rapist was a part of and on duty for at the time of the crime. Is this a common occurrence at US military bases? Does anyone even care to ask these questions?
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This is a what a deal looks like when you have no leverage. Tony better hope he can get multiple bidders involved for the AEW rights.
$TKO earnings release mentions WWE made a $25 million deal with NBCU to keep Raw on USA Network in Q4.
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@MeltzerSaidWhat
His last run ended in disaster after 9 years, multiple word title runs, and Punk pretty much working with everyone there. He is not the only top guys in the past, at the end of their runto have had a falling out with the promotion.
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So to sum my point up, don't be fooled by the fraudulent wrestling analysts who are behind the times with the changing landscape of TV, and focus solely on the key demo. The key demo only drives advertising revenue which is a secondary revenue stream for cable. 5/5
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@MichaelRuane19
Thanks, I appreciate it. Next I am going to compare with other shows where we have independently verified turnstile counts and compare with the tix distributed to see how the no show rate compares. I know 15.2% is by far the highest on record for a a 20K+show.
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@bw4ll
@MatBabiak
I addressed your criticisms here.
Since I have had a few people bring this up, let's refute this in one place. Look at the 90 day trends of these 3 charts dating back to 2022. Only Q1-Q2 & Q5-Q6 show a consistent pattern. That's only 2 out of 7. Unless you are in Q2 or Q6, you have no disadvantage. 1/5
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@TrevorDame
I surprised but it kinda shows you little awareness the average fan has of Brawl Out and AEW in general
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If you can't compete with pro sports, don't expect to get paid like pro sports.
This is why I ignore numbers. I had the same reflex reaction as everyone. "Damn, that low?". Then I saw this Meltzer post.
You can't expect AEW to beat Pro Sports. They're a juggernaut. I still expect them to beat everything else on TV which is crazy. It sounds like a high bar.
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@DosEvil
The problem for AEW is not shopping it around on the open market. The issue for AEW is the amount of time left now. They have 8 months until their deal expires and haven't even begun shopping it around. Time is not on their side unless a bidder is desperate to have them
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@BrandonThurston
If the number floating around is confirmed to have legitamately come from Brent Council, that would be a discrepancy of 13,263 tickets from the Turnstile count which would be a 15.5% no shownrate which is a much higher discrepency than for any other show we know of.
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@greasykid1
@BrandonThurston
It is a wait and see situation as there is a federal investigation. If any of this stuff is true, there will be criminal charges. If it isn't, there won't. I can't see a scenario where this is all true and Vince doesn't spend the rest of hisnlife in jail.
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@AndrewZarian
The question is why hasn't Dynamite and Collisio n already been simulcast on MAX in the same way WBD simulcast all their other sports? The idea that they had do a new deal doesn't really wash when NBA rights are up in 18 months.
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They gave them literally one of the greatest endings to a wrestling show in history. How clueless and out of touch can someone be to say something so stupid?
It still blows my mind that 41k+ filled the Georgia Dome on a Monday Night for the Hogan vs Goldberg World Title Match episode of Nitro… and gave them this card.. look at those match times.
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When they get into the reasons for the discrepancy in number, clubs claim they report paid attendances. The report goes on to state why there may be differences between the two figures. Below, you can see some explanations.
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So Swerve wins the world title and the first thing Tony gives him is a wrestling match on Dynamite. I am far more interested in hearing what Swerve has to say after such a historic victory. Should have started with an in ring promo and they could have done the match later.
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752k/0.23 for Dynamite. Terrible rating for the second week running. Good. Fuck this company after they did my boy Jay White dirty like that
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Weird to be adding PPV partners and taking money out of WBDs pockets if you are supposedly close to a MAX streaming deal.
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With the Young Bucks making their first advertised appearance on AEW TV since their hiatus, here is an analysis of the Young Bucks effect on ratings I did last year. It covers one year between 8/17/22 & 8/16/23. I found on average, the Bucks lost 46,000 viewers per appearance
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@TheRealDisco
Weren't you in the booking meeting where you all decided that Booker T should be champion and then Vince Russo went out on PPV and put Booker in a world title match claiming Booker was the victim of politics and couldn't get a chance cos of the Hogans of this world?
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@Muroc85
@allan_cheapshot
Also keep in mind that he also wrestled multiple times after the Goldberg match including taking weapon shots to the head.
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Is this you Dax?
@EBischoff
I know it’s your gimmick and the other guys pay you well to bury AEW, but checking out your timeline & all the Tony tweets and RT’s, it looks very stalkerish. Netflix “Baby Reindeer” would do you a bit of good, my brother in Christ.
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@MikeyChase2023
@RobertONeill31
These guys just signed NBA contracts a few months ago and are taking time off now already.
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@AEWFULWRESTLING
You could have added somewhere "Just days before the tournament was set to begin, only 4 of the 12 participants had been named"
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I tried to be positive about this company tonight and then they fuckin bury my boy Jay White for a 60 year old Billy Gunn. That was DDP/Undertaker levels of burial. Fuck Tony and AEW. I am done.
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Why is Mox as IWGP champ headlining Dynamite while newly crowned world champ Swerve was in the opener?
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Cody is a complete professional but it's obvious there are more hard feelings than he is letting on. Understandably so.
Cody Rhodes says his wife “got hugely scapegoated” at AEW and it still pisses him off to this day
(MMA Hour / Ariel Helwani)
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@luchablog
Its ridiculous that not a single reporter thought to ask about Punk. Then again, not a single reporter chose to asked about Pu k's gripebomb as it was happening right in front of them. I think maybed there are too many wrestling reporters too afraid to rock the boat.
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@AndrewZarian
Is this in reference to the rumours that the new AEW deal is worth a billion dollars?
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@benmillerMKE
@davemeltzerWON
In match story telling and psychology is arguably the worst its ever been.
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@MobSquad508
@TheRajGiri
When Bischoff was fired in 99, every metric from attendance, PPV and weekly cable ratings ranking were consistently higher than they have ever been for any non WWE company in history.
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@MrChrisChopping
@Lukejamesevans2
@TheGr8One234
@EnuffaDotCom
@mattgoddard3
@ThatBazMan
This is what Meltzer claims after Punk was fired. This was never reported when Punk was still there. Take it with a grain of salt as.Meltzers reporting has been proven to be heavily biased on the Punk situation.
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@CommonS37481141
@DrainBamager
Definately a step in the right direction that they are starting this building weeks out. I already want to see this match and they have 6 weeks to make it even more compelling. These are the two best all round talents in the company by some distance. Should be great.
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@willrodney736
@BackupHangman
The weekly product is brutal. One of the worst formatted shows ever. The PPVs deliver more often than not
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Also, since we are talking "excuses", the same week last year, which also went live on the west coast did 839k/0.28. The 0.28 was even with the previous episode last year which didn't air live on the West Coast. Maybe Dave could tell us how much the other time zones declined
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WBD are stuck in between a rock and a hard place. They can't afford to pay for the NBA, but they also can't afford to lose it.
Why did Warner Brothers Discovery risk losing the NBA on TNT?
John Skipper,
@DavidPSamson
, and
@PabloTorre
break down everything happening in the NBA media rights battle on the latest episode of The Sporting Class.
WATCH:
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So AEW have an over for $120-170m on the table from WBD but are cutting production costs. Sure. This is how it plays out. There will be a deal signed but it will lack details on dollar figures to save face, just like with Collision & the "significant increase".
AEW have been making production cost-cutting measures and cutbacks according to people within the company.
(Source: Wrestling Observer Newsletter)
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@Aliquickk
@SeanRossSapp
@kimmy_sokol
@Nick_Hausman
I didnt realise Beefcake retracted, but credit to
@Nick_Hausman
for asking. At least its given Shawn a chance to address and deny these rumours on the record.
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@Botcysincara69
They will get an increase. A small one likely IMO. I love sticking my neck on the line so it will be interesting to see how it plays out. I will bookmark your tweet also.
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There will be stations interested in AEW. That I have no doubt about. For sure, they will not end up homeless. But the stations who will have interest in them will be a step down. There was interest in TNA after Spike, but it was stations like Pop TV and Destination America
Dave Meltzer on AEW's media rights negotiations following reports that Tony Khan is "disappointed" with WBD's current offer:
"AEW’s future in many ways, future as far as profitability goes, or level of profitability is completely dependent upon this. I mean that is going to be
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Raw ranked no. 15 in viewership for the Week ending May 5th in all of cable television. Dynamite ranked no. 72. And before the demo extremists come in an say "Only the demo matters", tell me which demos Netflix measure by. The same Netflix that paid $5b for Raw.
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@davemeltzerWON
Wow seriously Dave. That 5400 includes house shows & C show tapings. It would be like including Dark/Elevation & houses shows in AEWs attendance average. Nitro alone averaged 9,196 in 97, closer to double anything AEW has ever averaged in a single year for Dynamite.
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Collision did 377k/0.12 in fast nationals. Should end up at around 395k-405k/0.12-0.13. Football has been over weeks now, & still no bounce in the Collision ratings. At this stage, a 3 hour Dynamite makes more sense financially for WBD/AEW than 2 hours each of Dynamite/Collision
From Dream to Nightmare: Bryan Danielson's random dream match and
#AEWCollision
drop under 400K Viewers
P2+: 377K
18-49: 153K
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After the terrible Dynamite rating, I am sure there will be people, and one person on particular, who will say AEW are doing well because "Dynamite was number 3 for the night behind only the NBA". Where was this person in 2000?
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@wrestlenomics
This is the 3rd all time lowest rated AEW broadcast in the history of the company in the key demo. Only 2 episodes of Rampage did lower than a 0.08 in the demo. The 2/17 & 5/13 Rampage shows this year did lower. 5/13 was pre empted.
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There are the 2 pages pertaining to the AEW settlement/NDA with BJ Whitmer's domestic violence victim. It appears that she received over $60,000 in payments as well as signed an NDA. Payments began 6/26, 3 days after BJ was terminated.
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@jedigoodman
But how could that be? They are number 1 in the demo most weeks and I thought that the demo is the only thing that matters
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@JulianWks
It is pretty obvious to anyone who isn't blined. Its not necessarily a bad thing right now as AEW from it's inception was geared towards getting a big rights deal to make it profitable. That was the business model & their next TV deal will determine if it will be a success or not
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@younited2016
@EBischoff
Thats just not true. WCWs PPV business got a big bounce with Hogan and by the time Nitro started, they were already trading victories back and forth with Raw. Hogans impact was obvious before the nWo though nWo took it to another level.
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Lol, that Punk-Jack Perry figjt happened exactly as described by Punk lol. So much for Punk lying. He shoved Perry then put him in a front facelock. No escape and no reversal. Joe broke it up. Then Punk yelled towards Gorilla for 10secs or so.
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I remember this very well. They were taking shots at me in the weeks in the lead up seeing as I was the most bearish on AEW rights deal being a big increase. My head kept saying it made no sense, but it seemed all but done. Turns out I was right on that one.
Tomorrow is also the 1 year anniversary of a F4W board member saying they the new AEW tv deal was going to be announced at 1 Billion $. Will tomorrow be the day????? Wait and see
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@voiceswrestling
@JesseCollings
Tony Khan hasn't been publicly neutral to WWE. He took shots at Nick Khan years ago. It worked back then because they were hotter. Now they are cold, its not working & he looks unhinged. The article by
@JesseCollings
was inaccurate spin of AEW's current perception issues.
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@KXNGAO
That was the exact type of answer Tony Khan is routinely and rightly ridiculed for. Both Tony and HHH should take lessons from a Cody on how to answer but avoid at the same time.
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@Batboat77
@MarcDamon9
@TrevorDame
Do you have a source on where Bischoff was Russo's boss? Not doubt you, just I always thought they were both on charge of creative and working together.
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Look at the state of this take. Punk just popped a 2.2m quarter hour on Raw, even outgrowing the Rock. Yet apparently the business has moved on.
Here’s a hot take for CM Punk:
Been out of the business for 7 years and realised on his return that wrestling had moved on
Sure, his promos were good, but he realised that he can’t rely on that in the 2020s, he has to be able to go in the ring too
Outside of the big corporate
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The deal will get done. The question has always been what kind of deal. If it's a small increase, it's a disaster. They need a big increase to make AEW a financially viable business in it's current form ( big production and competing for top talent with WWE).
"This is the most important year of AEW. This contract, contracts, whatever it is, that they negotiate between now and probably September/October/November, whenever the deals are done, is the most important deals in the history of AEW.
"It is essentially, after all these years
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@EliteClubS0B
Cody was the heart and soul of the promotion. The whole thing collapsed after he left.
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AEW increased their annual wage bill by probably close to $5m a year for Mercedes just to draw an 801k/0.27.
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@wrestlenomics
This same week last year, they did 990k and 0.34 which means they are down 13.6% in viewers and 17.6% in the key demo year on year.
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This spot looks fantastic but why is Ospreay running to the other side of the ring to jump off the middle rope when he was never reaching Bryan who was all the way on the other side of the ring. Just really bad psychology.
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That's why it's funny when the fraud analysts only focus on the demo. NBA's demo drives a potential loss of $270m, while NBA's viewers drive a potential loss of $1.13b. 18-49 is only the sole metric for cheap filler programming like AEW which doesn't drive affiliate fees 2/5
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The Met Police responded to a FOI request regarding AEW All In with the following.
They confirmed the attendance of 72,265 given to them by Wembley Stadium on the night and confirmed that they received a flyer in advance stating there would be 80,000 attendees.
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@DigestAndroid
@TheRONYBrand
@BackupHangman
Let the journalists do their job then and let them dig deeper. There is a media scrum today. Maybe one of them has the balls to ask Tiny about Kylie's exit and the rumours.
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