Impressed by GenCast, the ML-based weather forecasting model Curious @GoogleDeepMind - Bc it penalizes deviations from the truth, could a complementary risk-optimized model improve its ability to capture uncertainty and better represent extreme events?.

📢Call for ABSTRACTS for @EuroGeosciences. Submit your #interdisciplinary contributions that address societal responses to extreme weather events 🌪️🌏🥵⛈️🔥. ➡️Deadline: 15 January 2025 .➡️Conference: 27 April - 2 May 2025, Vienna .➡️ #EGU25

RT @nielsmede: This work resulted from an amazing interdisciplinary collaboration of our #TISP survey project and @ETH climate researchers….

RT @nielsmede: Do people attribute extreme weather events to #climate change? Is attribution linked to the severity of events? Is it relate….

Excited to share our new preprint on extreme weather & climate policy support! 🌍🔥 Over 70K people in 68 countries were surveyed. We found that belief in climate change’s impact on extreme weather boosts climate policy support - but living in affected areas doesn’t always do so.

Still deciding on your #EGU24 schedule of the day? Come to ITS4.8/CL0.1.16 “Advances in physical climate risk assessment for the financial and insurance sectors” - I’ll be presenting how to quantify and navigate future TC 🌪️risk uncertainties at 9:05 AM

RT @colognav: Big smiles at the end of our interdisciplinary session @EuroGeosciences on "Bridging natural and social sciences to study soc….

Looking for a simple task to start the new year with? Submit an abstract to our @EuroGeosciences session: We welcome #interdisciplinary contributions that address societal responses to extreme weather events 🌪️🥵🔥⛈️. @colognav @JoshEttinger @RmnHoffmann

RT @ClimateVikki: Looking to tick one simple task off your to-do list before finishing up for the year? Submit an abstract to our #EGU24 se….

Where extreme weather meets emotions. 🌪️💖 Calling all minds at the crossroads of natural and social sciences - submit your abstracts to #EGU24 @EuroGeosciences.

From heatwaves to hurricanes, our #EGU24 session tackles Future Changes in Weather and Climate Hazards around the World 🌍🔥🌊 Abstracts welcome here:

A big thank you 🙏 goes to my co-authors: Alessio Ciullo, @KropfChahan, Kerry Emanuel, @DavidBresch .@usys_ethzh . Please share and comment 🩵. 6/6.

⏩ The analogous study using an alternative TC dataset, STORM @Bloemendaal_N, provides a valuable, additional perspective. A synthesis study of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis across more TC hazard models is coming up. 5/6.

💡 Our results can.- help model developers focus research efforts .- provide decision-makers with a much wider range of plausible future outcomes and thus a more transparent and valuable information basis.- and, should be carefully interpreted outside the scope of study . 4/6.

🔎 We find.- the choice of GCM affects the output uncertainty most.- a positive correlation between climate sensitivity of GCMs and TC risk increase.- non-trivial effect between climate change and socio-economic development that drives future TC risk. 3/6.

🔮 We combine synthetic TCs (MIT model) downscaled from several CMIP6 GCMs for 3 emission scenarios with economic growth factors derived from 5 SSPs and a wide range of vulnerability functions. We avoid making a priori choices and explore an extensive future TC risk space. 2/6.

Which TC risk model input factor drives the uncertainty in future TC risk change most?. 📢 New paper published @CommsEarth @SpringerNature . A systematic uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of future TC risk change throughout the entire risk model. 1/6

RT @sam_luethi: How many people could die due to heat during an extreme summer?🥵🥵.Our study on rapidly increasing risk of summers with very….

When natural and social sciences meet. First results from a very cool study on the relationship between historical extreme weather impacts and climate change emotions led by @colognav & @nielsmede in collaboration with @sam_luethi @KropfChahan 🥵⛈️🌪️🌡️😰.

That's exciting! Catastrophe risk science has its own journal. When are you submitting your first manuscript?.